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Using AI for Political Polling

Public polling is a critical function of modern political campaigns and movements, but it isn’t what it once was. Recent US election cycles have produced copious postmortems explaining both the successes and the flaws of public polling. There are two main reasons polling fails.

First, nonresponse has skyrocketed. It’s radically harder to reach people than it used to be. Few people fill out surveys that come in the mail anymore. Few people answer their phone when a stranger calls. Pew Research reported that 36% of the people they called in 1997 would talk to them, but only 6% by 2018. Pollsters worldwide have faced similar challenges.

Second, people don’t always tell pollsters what they really think. Some hide their true thoughts because they are embarrassed about them. Others behave as a partisan, telling the pollster what they think their party wants them to say—or what they know the other party doesn’t want to hear.

Despite these frailties, obsessive interest in polling nonetheless consumes our politics. Headlines more likely tout the latest changes in polling numbers than the policy issues at stake in the campaign. This is a tragedy for a democracy. We should treat elections like choices that have consequences for our lives and well-being, not contests to decide who gets which cushy job.

Polling Machines?

AI could change polling. AI can offer the ability to instantaneously survey and summarize the expressed opinions of individuals and groups across the web, understand trends by demographic, and offer extrapolations to new circumstances and policy issues on par with human experts. The politicians of the (near) future won’t anxiously pester their pollsters for information about the results of a survey fielded last week: they’ll just ask a chatbot what people think. This will supercharge our access to realtime, granular information about public opinion, but at the same time it might also exacerbate concerns about the quality of this information.

I know it sounds impossible, but stick with us.

Large language models, the AI foundations behind tools like ChatGPT, are built on top of huge corpuses of data culled from the Internet. These are models trained to recapitulate what millions of real people have written in response to endless topics, contexts, and scenarios. For a decade or more, campaigns have trawled social media, looking for hints and glimmers of how people are reacting to the latest political news. This makes asking questions of an AI chatbot similar in spirit to doing analytics on social media, except that they are generative: you can ask them new questions that no one has ever posted about before, you can generate more data from populations too small to measure robustly, and you can immediately ask clarifying questions of your simulated constituents to better understand their reasoning

Researchers and firms are already using LLMs to simulate polling results. Current techniques are based on the ideas of AI agents. An AI agent is an instance of an AI model that has been conditioned to behave in a certain way. For example, it may be primed to respond as if it is a person with certain demographic characteristics and can access news articles from certain outlets. Researchers have set up populations of thousands of AI agents that respond as if they are individual members of a survey population, like humans on a panel that get called periodically to answer questions.

The big difference between humans and AI agents is that the AI agents always pick up the phone, so to speak, no matter how many times you contact them. A political candidate or strategist can ask an AI agent whether voters will support them if they take position A versus B, or tweaks of those options, like policy A-1 versus A-2. They can ask that question of male voters versus female voters. They can further limit the query to married male voters of retirement age in rural districts of Illinois without college degrees who lost a job during the last recession; the AI will integrate as much context as you ask.

What’s so powerful about this system is that it can generalize to new scenarios and survey topics, and spit out a plausible answer, even if its accuracy is not guaranteed. In many cases, it will anticipate those responses at least as well as a human political expert. And if the results don’t make sense, the human can immediately prompt the AI with a dozen follow-up questions.

Making AI agents better polling subjects

When we ran our own experiments in this kind of AI use case with the earliest versions of the model behind ChatGPT (GPT-3.5), we found that it did a fairly good job at replicating human survey responses. The ChatGPT agents tended to match the responses of their human counterparts fairly well across a variety of survey questions, such as support for abortion and approval of the US Supreme Court. The AI polling results had average responses, and distributions across demographic properties such as age and gender, similar to real human survey panels.

Our major systemic failure happened on a question about US intervention in the Ukraine war.  In our experiments, the AI agents conditioned to be liberal were predominantly opposed to US intervention in Ukraine and likened it to the Iraq war. Conservative AI agents gave hawkish responses supportive of US intervention. This is pretty much what most political experts would have expected of the political equilibrium in US foreign policy at the start of the decade but was exactly wrong in the politics of today.

This mistake has everything to do with timing. The humans were asked the question after Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, whereas the AI model was trained using data that only covered events through September 2021. The AI got it wrong because it didn’t know how the politics had changed. The model lacked sufficient context on crucially relevant recent events.

We believe AI agents can overcome these shortcomings. While AI models are dependent on  the data they are trained with, and all the limitations inherent in that, what makes AI agents special is that they can automatically source and incorporate new data at the time they are asked a question. AI models can update the context in which they generate opinions by learning from the same sources that humans do. Each AI agent in a simulated panel can be exposed to the same social and media news sources as humans from that same demographic before they respond to a survey question. This works because AI agents can follow multi-step processes, such as reading a question, querying a defined database of information (such as Google, or the New York Times, or Fox News, or Reddit), and then answering a question.

In this way, AI polling tools can simulate exposing their synthetic survey panel to whatever news is most relevant to a topic and likely to emerge in each AI agent’s own echo chamber. And they can query for other relevant contextual information, such as demographic trends and historical data. Like human pollsters, they can try to refine their expectations on the basis of factors like how expensive homes are in a respondent’s neighborhood, or how many people in that district turned out to vote last cycle.

Likely use cases for AI polling

AI polling will be irresistible to campaigns, and to the media. But research is already revealing when and where this tool will fail. While AI polling will always have limitations in accuracy, that makes them similar to, not different from, traditional polling. Today’s pollsters are challenged to reach sample sizes large enough to measure statistically significant differences between similar populations, and the issues of nonresponse and inauthentic response can make them systematically wrong. Yet for all those shortcomings, both traditional and AI-based polls will still be useful. For all the hand-wringing and consternation over the accuracy of US political polling, national issue surveys still tend to be accurate to within a few percentage points. If you’re running for a town council seat or in a neck-and-neck national election, or just trying to make the right policy decision within a local government, you might care a lot about those small and localized differences. But if you’re looking to track directional changes over time, or differences between demographic groups, or to uncover insights about who responds best to what message, then these imperfect signals are sufficient to help campaigns and policymakers.

Where AI will work best is as an augmentation of more traditional human polls. Over time, AI tools will get better at anticipating human responses, and also at knowing when they will be most wrong or uncertain. They will recognize which issues and human communities are in the most flux, where the model’s training data is liable to steer it in the wrong direction. In those cases, AI models can send up a white flag and indicate that they need to engage human respondents to calibrate to real people’s perspectives. The AI agents can even be programmed to automate this. They can use existing survey tools—with all their limitations and latency—to query for authentic human responses when they need them.

This kind of human-AI polling chimera lands us, funnily enough, not too distant from where survey research is today. Decades of social science research has led to substantial innovations in statistical methodologies for analyzing survey data. Current polling methods already do substantial modeling and projecting to predictively model properties of a general population based on sparse survey samples. Today, humans fill out the surveys and computers fill in the gaps. In the future, it will be the opposite: AI will fill out the survey and, when the AI isn’t sure what box to check, humans will fill the gaps. So if you’re not comfortable with the idea that political leaders will turn to a machine to get intelligence about which candidates and policies you want, then you should have about as many misgivings about the present as you will the future.

And while the AI results could improve quickly, they probably won’t be seen as credible for some time. Directly asking people what they think feels more reliable than asking a computer what people think. We expect these AI-assisted polls will be initially used internally by campaigns, with news organizations relying on more traditional techniques. It will take a major election where AI is right and humans are wrong to change that.

This essay was written with Aaron Berger, Eric Gong, and Nathan Sanders, and previously appeared on the Harvard Kennedy School Ash Center’s website.

Posted on June 12, 2024 at 7:02 AMView Comments

LLMs Acting Deceptively

New research: “Deception abilities emerged in large language models“:

Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are currently at the forefront of intertwining AI systems with human communication and everyday life. Thus, aligning them with human values is of great importance. However, given the steady increase in reasoning abilities, future LLMs are under suspicion of becoming able to deceive human operators and utilizing this ability to bypass monitoring efforts. As a prerequisite to this, LLMs need to possess a conceptual understanding of deception strategies. This study reveals that such strategies emerged in state-of-the-art LLMs, but were nonexistent in earlier LLMs. We conduct a series of experiments showing that state-of-the-art LLMs are able to understand and induce false beliefs in other agents, that their performance in complex deception scenarios can be amplified utilizing chain-of-thought reasoning, and that eliciting Machiavellianism in LLMs can trigger misaligned deceptive behavior. GPT-4, for instance, exhibits deceptive behavior in simple test scenarios 99.16% of the time (P < 0.001). In complex second-order deception test scenarios where the aim is to mislead someone who expects to be deceived, GPT-4 resorts to deceptive behavior 71.46% of the time (P < 0.001) when augmented with chain-of-thought reasoning. In sum, revealing hitherto unknown machine behavior in LLMs, our study contributes to the nascent field of machine psychology.

Posted on June 11, 2024 at 7:02 AMView Comments

Exploiting Mistyped URLs

Interesting research: “Hyperlink Hijacking: Exploiting Erroneous URL Links to Phantom Domains“:

Abstract: Web users often follow hyperlinks hastily, expecting them to be correctly programmed. However, it is possible those links contain typos or other mistakes. By discovering active but erroneous hyperlinks, a malicious actor can spoof a website or service, impersonating the expected content and phishing private information. In “typosquatting,” misspellings of common domains are registered to exploit errors when users mistype a web address. Yet, no prior research has been dedicated to situations where the linking errors of web publishers (i.e. developers and content contributors) propagate to users. We hypothesize that these “hijackable hyperlinks” exist in large quantities with the potential to generate substantial traffic. Analyzing large-scale crawls of the web using high-performance computing, we show the web currently contains active links to more than 572,000 dot-com domains that have never been registered, what we term ‘phantom domains.’ Registering 51 of these, we see 88% of phantom domains exceeding the traffic of a control domain, with up to 10 times more visits. Our analysis shows that these links exist due to 17 common publisher error modes, with the phantom domains they point to free for anyone to purchase and exploit for under $20, representing a low barrier to entry for potential attackers.

Posted on June 10, 2024 at 7:08 AMView Comments

Security and Human Behavior (SHB) 2024

This week, I hosted the seventeenth Workshop on Security and Human Behavior at the Harvard Kennedy School. This is the first workshop since our co-founder, Ross Anderson, died unexpectedly.

SHB is a small, annual, invitational workshop of people studying various aspects of the human side of security. The fifty or so attendees include psychologists, economists, computer security researchers, criminologists, sociologists, political scientists, designers, lawyers, philosophers, anthropologists, geographers, neuroscientists, business school professors, and a smattering of others. It’s not just an interdisciplinary event; most of the people here are individually interdisciplinary.

Our goal is always to maximize discussion and interaction. We do that by putting everyone on panels, and limiting talks to six to eight minutes, with the rest of the time for open discussion. Short talks limit presenters’ ability to get into the boring details of their work, and the interdisciplinary audience discourages jargon.

Since the beginning, this workshop has been the most intellectually stimulating two days of my professional year. It influences my thinking in different and sometimes surprising ways—and has resulted in some new friendships and unexpected collaborations. This is why some of us have been coming back every year for over a decade.

This year’s schedule is here. This page lists the participants and includes links to some of their work. Kami Vaniea liveblogged both days.

Here are my posts on the first, second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth, tenth, eleventh, twelfth, thirteenth, fourteenth, fifteenth and sixteenth SHB workshops. Follow those links to find summaries, papers, and occasionally audio/video recordings of the sessions. Ross maintained a good webpage of psychology and security resources—it’s still up for now.

Next year we will be in Cambridge, UK, hosted by Frank Stajano.

EDITED TO ADD (6/21): Audio from the event.

Posted on June 7, 2024 at 4:55 PMView Comments

The Justice Department Took Down the 911 S5 Botnet

The US Justice Department has dismantled an enormous botnet:

According to an indictment unsealed on May 24, from 2014 through July 2022, Wang and others are alleged to have created and disseminated malware to compromise and amass a network of millions of residential Windows computers worldwide. These devices were associated with more than 19 million unique IP addresses, including 613,841 IP addresses located in the United States. Wang then generated millions of dollars by offering cybercriminals access to these infected IP addresses for a fee.

[…]

This operation was a coordinated multiagency effort led by law enforcement in the United States, Singapore, Thailand, and Germany. Agents and officers searched residences, seized assets valued at approximately $30 million, and identified additional forfeitable property valued at approximately $30 million. The operation also seized 23 domains and over 70 servers constituting the backbone of Wang’s prior residential proxy service and the recent incarnation of the service. By seizing multiple domains tied to the historical 911 S5, as well as several new domains and services directly linked to an effort to reconstitute the service, the government has successfully terminated Wang’s efforts to further victimize individuals through his newly formed service Clourouter.io and closed the existing malicious backdoors.

The creator and operator of the botnet, YunHe Wang, was arrested in Singapore.

Three news articles.

Posted on June 7, 2024 at 7:04 AMView Comments

Online Privacy and Overfishing

Microsoft recently caught state-backed hackers using its generative AI tools to help with their attacks. In the security community, the immediate questions weren’t about how hackers were using the tools (that was utterly predictable), but about how Microsoft figured it out. The natural conclusion was that Microsoft was spying on its AI users, looking for harmful hackers at work.

Some pushed back at characterizing Microsoft’s actions as “spying.” Of course cloud service providers monitor what users are doing. And because we expect Microsoft to be doing something like this, it’s not fair to call it spying.

We see this argument as an example of our shifting collective expectations of privacy. To understand what’s happening, we can learn from an unlikely source: fish.

In the mid-20th century, scientists began noticing that the number of fish in the ocean—so vast as to underlie the phrase “There are plenty of fish in the sea”—had started declining rapidly due to overfishing. They had already seen a similar decline in whale populations, when the post-WWII whaling industry nearly drove many species extinct. In whaling and later in commercial fishing, new technology made it easier to find and catch marine creatures in ever greater numbers. Ecologists, specifically those working in fisheries management, began studying how and when certain fish populations had gone into serious decline.

One scientist, Daniel Pauly, realized that researchers studying fish populations were making a major error when trying to determine acceptable catch size. It wasn’t that scientists didn’t recognize the declining fish populations. It was just that they didn’t realize how significant the decline was. Pauly noted that each generation of scientists had a different baseline to which they compared the current statistics, and that each generation’s baseline was lower than that of the previous one.

What seems normal to us in the security community is whatever was commonplace at the beginning of our careers.

Pauly called this “shifting baseline syndrome” in a 1995 paper. The baseline most scientists used was the one that was normal when they began their research careers. By that measure, each subsequent decline wasn’t significant, but the cumulative decline was devastating. Each generation of researchers came of age in a new ecological and technological environment, inadvertently masking an exponential decline.

Pauly’s insights came too late to help those managing some fisheries. The ocean suffered catastrophes such as the complete collapse of the Northwest Atlantic cod population in the 1990s.

Internet surveillance, and the resultant loss of privacy, is following the same trajectory. Just as certain fish populations in the world’s oceans have fallen 80 percent, from previously having fallen 80 percent, from previously having fallen 80 percent (ad infinitum), our expectations of privacy have similarly fallen precipitously. The pervasive nature of modern technology makes surveillance easier than ever before, while each successive generation of the public is accustomed to the privacy status quo of their youth. What seems normal to us in the security community is whatever was commonplace at the beginning of our careers.

Historically, people controlled their computers, and software was standalone. The always-connected cloud-deployment model of software and services flipped the script. Most apps and services are designed to be always-online, feeding usage information back to the company. A consequence of this modern deployment model is that everyone—cynical tech folks and even ordinary users—expects that what you do with modern tech isn’t private. But that’s because the baseline has shifted.

AI chatbots are the latest incarnation of this phenomenon: They produce output in response to your input, but behind the scenes there’s a complex cloud-based system keeping track of that input—both to improve the service and to sell you ads.

Shifting baselines are at the heart of our collective loss of privacy. The U.S. Supreme Court has long held that our right to privacy depends on whether we have a reasonable expectation of privacy. But expectation is a slippery thing: It’s subject to shifting baselines.

The question remains: What now? Fisheries scientists, armed with knowledge of shifting-baseline syndrome, now look at the big picture. They no longer consider relative measures, such as comparing this decade with the last decade. Instead, they take a holistic, ecosystem-wide perspective to see what a healthy marine ecosystem and thus sustainable catch should look like. They then turn these scientifically derived sustainable-catch figures into limits to be codified by regulators.

In privacy and security, we need to do the same. Instead of comparing to a shifting baseline, we need to step back and look at what a healthy technological ecosystem would look like: one that respects people’s privacy rights while also allowing companies to recoup costs for services they provide. Ultimately, as with fisheries, we need to take a big-picture perspective and be aware of shifting baselines. A scientifically informed and democratic regulatory process is required to preserve a heritage—whether it be the ocean or the Internet—for the next generation.

This essay was written with Barath Raghavan, and previously appeared in IEEE Spectrum.

EDITED TO ADD (6/23): This essay has been translated into German.

Posted on June 5, 2024 at 7:00 AMView Comments

Breaking a Password Manager

Interesting story of breaking the security of the RoboForm password manager in order to recover a cryptocurrency wallet password.

Grand and Bruno spent months reverse engineering the version of the RoboForm program that they thought Michael had used in 2013 and found that the pseudo-random number generator used to generate passwords in that version—­and subsequent versions until 2015­—did indeed have a significant flaw that made the random number generator not so random. The RoboForm program unwisely tied the random passwords it generated to the date and time on the user’s computer­—it determined the computer’s date and time, and then generated passwords that were predictable. If you knew the date and time and other parameters, you could compute any password that would have been generated on a certain date and time in the past.

If Michael knew the day or general time frame in 2013 when he generated it, as well as the parameters he used to generate the password (for example, the number of characters in the password, including lower- and upper-case letters, figures, and special characters), this would narrow the possible password guesses to a manageable number. Then they could hijack the RoboForm function responsible for checking the date and time on a computer and get it to travel back in time, believing the current date was a day in the 2013 time frame when Michael generated his password. RoboForm would then spit out the same passwords it generated on the days in 2013.

Posted on June 4, 2024 at 7:08 AMView Comments

Seeing Like a Data Structure

Technology was once simply a tool—and a small one at that—used to amplify human intent and capacity. That was the story of the industrial revolution: we could control nature and build large, complex human societies, and the more we employed and mastered technology, the better things got. We don’t live in that world anymore. Not only has technology become entangled with the structure of society, but we also can no longer see the world around us without it. The separation is gone, and the control we thought we once had has revealed itself as a mirage. We’re in a transitional period of history right now.

We tell ourselves stories about technology and society every day. Those stories shape how we use and develop new technologies as well as the new stories and uses that will come with it. They determine who’s in charge, who benefits, who’s to blame, and what it all means.

Some people are excited about the emerging technologies poised to remake society. Others are hoping for us to see this as folly and adopt simpler, less tech-centric ways of living. And many feel that they have little understanding of what is happening and even less say in the matter.

But we never had total control of technology in the first place, nor is there a pretechnological golden age to which we can return. The truth is that our data-centric way of seeing the world isn’t serving us well. We need to tease out a third option. To do so, we first need to understand how we got here.

Abstraction

When we describe something as being abstract, we mean it is removed from reality: conceptual and not material, distant and not close-up. What happens when we live in a world built entirely of the abstract? A world in which we no longer care for the messy, contingent, nebulous, raw, and ambiguous reality that has defined humanity for most of our species’ existence? We are about to find out, as we begin to see the world through the lens of data structures.

Two decades ago, in his book Seeing Like a State, anthropologist James C. Scott explored what happens when governments, or those with authority, attempt and fail to “improve the human condition.” Scott found that to understand societies and ecosystems, government functionaries and their private sector equivalents reduced messy reality to idealized, abstracted, and quantified simplifications that made the mess more “legible” to them. With this legibility came the ability to assess and then impose new social, economic, and ecological arrangements from the top down: communities of people became taxable citizens, a tangled and primeval forest became a monoculture timber operation, and a convoluted premodern town became a regimented industrial city.

This kind of abstraction was seemingly necessary to create the world around us today. It is difficult to manage a large organization, let alone an interconnected global society of eight billion people, without some sort of structure and means to abstract away details. Facility with abstraction, and abstract reasoning, has enabled all sorts of advancements in science, technology, engineering, and math—the very fields we are constantly being told are in highest demand.

The map is not the territory, and no amount of intellectualization will make it so. Creating abstract representations by necessity leaves out important detail and context. Inevitably, as Scott cataloged, the use of large-scale abstractions fails, leaving leadership bewildered at the failure and ordinary people worse off. But our desire to abstract never went away, and technology, as always, serves to amplify intent and capacity. Now, we manifest this abstraction with software. Computing supercharges the creative and practical use of abstraction. This is what life is like when we see the world the way a data structure sees the world. These are the same tricks Scott documented. What has changed is their speed and their ubiquity.

Each year, more students flock to computer science, a field with some of the highest-paying, most sought-after jobs. Nearly every university’s curriculum immediately introduces these students to data structures. A data structure enables a programmer to organize data—about anything—in a way that is easy to understand and act upon in software: to sort, search, structure, organize, or combine that data. A course in data structures is exercise after exercise in building and manipulating abstractions, ones that are typically entirely divorced from the messy, context-laden, real-world data that those data structures will be used to store.

As students graduate, most join companies that demand these technical skills—universally seen as essential to computer science work—who see themselves as “changing the world,” often with even grander ambitions than the prosaic aims of state functionaries cataloged by Scott.

Engineers are transforming data about the world around us into data structures, at massive scale. They then employ another computer science trick: indirection. This is the ability to break apart some sociotechnical process—to “disrupt”—and replace each of the now-broken pieces with abstractions that can interface with each other. These data structures and abstractions are then combined in software to take action on this view of reality, action that increasingly has a human and societal dimension.

Here’s an example. When the pandemic started and delivery orders skyrocketed, technologists saw an opportunity: ghost kitchens. No longer did the restaurant a customer was ordering from actually have to exist. All that mattered was that the online menu catered to customer desires. Once ordered, the food had to somehow get sourced, cooked, and packaged, sight unseen, and be delivered to the customer’s doorstep. Now, lots of places we order food from are subject to this abstraction and indirection, more like Amazon’s supply chain than a local diner of yore.

Facebook sees its users like a data structure when it classifies us into ever more precise interest categories, so as to better sell our attention to advertisers. Spotify sees us like a data structure when it tries to play music it thinks we will like based on the likes of people who like some of the same music we like. TikTok users often exclaim and complain that its recommendations seem to uncannily tap into latent desires and interests, leading many to perform psychological self-diagnosis using their “For You” page.

Data structures dominate our world and are a byproduct of the rational, modern era, but they are ushering in an age of chaos. We need to embrace and tame, but not extinguish, this chaos for a better world.

Machines

Historian of technology Lewis Mumford once wrote that clocks enabled the division of time, and that enabled the regimentation of society that made the industrial revolution possible. This transformation, once fully underway around the world in the 20th century, fundamentally changed the story of society. It shifted us away from a society centered around interpersonal dynamics and communal interactions to one that was systematic and institutional.

We used to take the world in and interpret it through human eyes. The world before the industrial revolution wasn’t one in which ordinary people interacted with large-scale institutions or socio-technical systems. It wasn’t possible for someone to be a “company man” before there was a corporate way of doing things that in theory depended only on rules, laws, methods, and principles, not on the vicissitudes of human behavior.

Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, workers and the natural world have been subject to abstraction. This involves the use of abstract reason over social preferences. Knowledge about the world was no longer in our heads but out in the world. So we got newspapers, instruction manuals, bylaws, and academic journals. And we should be clear: this was largely an improvement. The era of systems—of modernity—was an improvement on what came before. It’s better for society to have laws rather than rulers, better for us to lean on science than superstition. We can’t and shouldn’t go back.

The tools of reason enabled the “high modernists,” as Scott calls them, to envision a world shaped entirely by reason. But such reason was and is never free of personal biases. It always neglects the messiness of reality and the tacit and contextual knowledge and skill that is needed to cope with that mess—and this is where trouble began to arise.

Workers were and are treated as cogs in the industrial machine, filling a narrow role on an assembly line or performing a service job within narrow parameters. Nature is treated as a resource for human use, a near-infinite storehouse of materials and dumping ground for wastes. Even something as essential and grounding as farming is seen as mechanistic—”a farm is a factory in a remote area,” as put by one John Deere executive—where plants are machines that take in nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium and produce barely edible dent corn. There’s even a popular myth that eminent business theorist W.E. Deming said: “If you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it”—lending credence to the measurement and optimization mindset.

The abstractions nearly write themselves. Though, leaving nothing to chance, entrepreneurs and their funders have flocked to translating these precomputing abstractions for the age of data structures. This is happening in both seen and unseen ways. Uber and Lyft turned people into driving robots that follow algorithmic guidance from one place to another. Amazon made warehouse workers perform precisely defined tasks in concert with literal robots. Agtech companies turn farms into data structures to then optimize the application of fertilizer, irrigation water, pesticides, and herbicides.

Beyond simply dividing time, computation has enabled the division of information. This is embodied at the lowest levels—bits and packets of data flowing through the Internet—all the way up to the highest levels, where many jobs can be described as a set of information-processing tasks performed by one worker only to be passed along to another. But this sort of computing—that’s just worn-out optimization techniques that date back to last century’s Taylorism—didn’t move us into the unstable world we’re in today. It was a different sort of computation that did that.

Computation

Today we’re in an era where computing not only abstracts our world but also defines our inner worlds: the very thoughts we have and the ways we communicate.

It is this abstracted reality that is presented to us when we open a map on our phones, search the Internet, or “engage” on social media. It is this constructed reality that shapes the decisions businesses make every day, governs financial markets, influences geopolitical strategy, and increasingly controls more of how global society functions. It is this synthesized reality we consume when the answers we seek about the world are the entire writings of humanity put into a blender and strained out by a large language model.

The first wave of this crested a decade ago only to crash down on us. Back then, search engines represented de facto reality, and “just Google it” became a saying: whatever the search engine said was right. But in some sense that was a holdover from the previous “modern” era but with a large data structure—the search engine’s vast database—replacing some classic source of truth such as the news media or the government. We all had a hope that with enough data, and algorithms to sift through it all, we could have a simple technological abstraction over the messiness of reality with a coherent answer no matter what the question was.

As we move toward the future promised by some technologists, our human-based view of the world and that of the data structures embedded in our computing devices will converge. Why bother to make a product at all when you can just algorithmically generate thousands of “ghost products,” in the hopes that someone will buy.

Scott’s critiques of datafication remain. We are becoming increasingly aware that things are continuous spectra, not discrete categories. Writing about the failure of contact tracing apps, activist Cory Doctorow said, “We can’t add, subtract, multiply or divide qualitative elements, so we just incinerate them, sweep up the dubious quantitative residue that remains, do math on that, and simply assert that nothing important was lost in the process.”

A pair of augmented-reality glasses may no longer let us see the world unfiltered by data structures but instead dissect and categorize every experience. A person on the street is no longer an individual but a member of a subcategory of “person” as determined by an AI classifier. A street is no longer the place you grew up but an abstraction from a map. And a local cafe is no longer a community hangout but a data structure containing a menu, a list of reservation options, and a hundred 5-star ratings.

Whether as glasses we look through or simply as screens on our devices, reality will be augmented by the data structures that categorize the world around us. Just as search engines caused the rise of SEO, where writers tweak their writing to attract search engines rather than human readers, this augmented reality will result in its own optimizations. We may be seeing the first signs of this with “Thai Food Near Me” as the literal name of businesses that are trying to satisfy the search function of mapping apps. Soon, even the physical form of things in the world may be determined in a coevolution with technology, where the form of things in the real world, even a dish at a restaurant, is chosen by what will look best when seen through our technological filters. It’s a data layer on top of reality. And the problems get worse when the relative importance of the data and reality flip. Is it more important to make a restaurant’s food taste better, or just more Instagrammable?

People are already working to exploit the data structures and algorithms that govern our world. Amazon drivers hang smartphones in trees to trick the system. Songwriters put their catchy choruses near the beginning to exploit Spotify’s algorithms. And podcasters deliberately mispronounce words because people comment with corrections and those comments count as “engagement” to the algorithms.

These hacks are fundamentally about the breakdown of “the system.” (We’re not suggesting that there’s a single system that governs society but rather a mess of systems that interact and overlap in our lives and are more or less relevant in particular contexts.) Systems work according to rules, either ones made consciously by people or, increasingly, automatically determined by data structures and algorithms. But systems of rules are, by their nature, trying to create a map for a messy territory, and rules will always have loopholes that can be taken advantage of.

The challenge with previous generations of tech—and the engineers who built them—is that they got stuck in the rigidity of systems. That’s what the company man was all about: the processes of the company, of Taylorism, of the McKinsey Way, of Scrum software development, of effective altruism, and of so many more. These all promised certainty, control, optimality, correctness, and sometimes even virtue: all just manifestations of a rigid and “rational” way of thinking and solving problems. Making systems work in this way at a societal level has failed. This is what Scott was saying in his seminal book. It was always doomed to fail.

Fissures

Seeing like a state was all about “legibility.” But the world is too difficult to make legible today. That’s where data structures, algorithms, and AI come in: humans no longer need to manually create legibility. Nor do humans even need to consume what is made legible. Raw data about the world can be fed into new AI tools to create a semblance of legibility. We can then have yet more automated tools act upon this supposed representation of the world, soon with real-life consequences. We’re now delegating the process of creating legibility to technology. Along the way, we’ve made it approximate: legible to someone or something else but not to the person who actually is in charge.

Right now, we’re living through the last attempts at making those systems work, with a perhaps naive hope and a newfound belief in AI and the data science that fuels it. The hope is that, because we have better algorithms that can help us make sense of even more data, we can somehow succeed at making systems work where past societies have failed. But it’s not going to work because it’s the mode of thought that doesn’t work.

The power to see like a state was intoxicating for government planners, corporate efficiency experts, and adherents to high modernism in general. But modern technology lets us all see like a state. And with the advent of AI, we all have the power to act on that seeing.

AI is made up of data structures that enable a mapping from the messy multidimensional reality that we inhabit to categories and patterns that are useful in some way. Spotify may organize songs into clever new musical genres invented by its AI, but it’s still an effort to create legibility out of thin air. We’re sending verbose emails with AI tools that will just be summarized by another AI. These are all just concepts, whether they’re created by a human mind or by a data structure or AI tool. And while concepts help us understand reality, they aren’t reality itself.

The problem we face is at once simple to explain and fiendishly difficult to do something about. It’s the interplay of nebulosity and pattern, as scholar David Chapman puts it: reality is nebulous (messy), but to get on with our lives, we see patterns (make sense of it in context-dependent ways). Generally, we as people don’t have strict rules for how to make breakfast, and we don’t need the task explained to us when a friend asks us for a cup of coffee. But that’s not the case for a computer, or a robot, or even a corporate food service, which can’t navigate the intricacies and uncertainties of the real world with the flexibility we expect of a person. And at an even larger scale, our societal systems, whether we’re talking about laws and governments or just the ways our employers expect us to get our jobs done, don’t have that flexibility built into them. We’ve seen repeatedly how breaking corporate or government operations into thousands of disparate, rigid contracts ends in failure.

Decades ago, the cracks in these rational systems were only visible to a few, left for debate in the halls of universities, board rooms, and militaries. Now, nebulosity, complexity, and the breakdown of these systems is all around for everyone to see. When teenagers are training themselves to see the world the way social-media ranking algorithms do, and can notice a change in real time, that’s how we know that the cracks are pervasive.

The complexity of society today, and the failure of rigid systems to cope, is scary to many. Nobody’s in charge of, or could possibly even understand, all these complex technological systems that now run our global society. As scholar Brian Klaas puts it, “the cognitive shortcuts we use to survive are mismatched with the complex reality we now navigate.” For some, this threat demands dramatic action, such as replacing some big system we have—say, capitalism—with an alternative means of organizing society. For others, it demands throwing out all of modernity to go back to a mythical, simpler golden age: one with more human-scale systems of order and authority, which they imagine was somehow better. And yet others see the cracks in the system but hope that with more data and more tweaks, it can be repaired and our problems will be definitively solved.

However, it’s not this particular system that failed but rather the mode of society that depends on rigid systems to function. Replacing one rigid system with another won’t work. There’s certainly no golden age to return to. And simpler forms of society aren’t options for us at the scale of humanity today. So where does that leave us?

Tension

The ability to see like a data structure afforded us the technology we have today. But it was built for and within a set of societal systems—and stories—that can’t cope with nebulosity. Worse still is the transitional era we’ve entered, in which overwhelming complexity leads more and more people to believe in nothing. That way lies madness. Seeing is a choice, and we need to reclaim that choice. However, we need to see things and do things differently, and build sociotechnical systems that embody this difference.

This is best seen through a small example. In our jobs, many of us deal with interpersonal dynamics that sometimes overwhelm the rules. The rules are still there—those that the company operates by and laws that it follows—meaning there are limits to how those interpersonal dynamics can play out. But those rules are rigid and bureaucratic, and most of the time they are irrelevant to what you’re dealing with. People learn to work with and around the rules rather than follow them to the letter. Some of these might be deliberate hacks, ones that are known, and passed down, by an organization’s workers. A work-to-rule strike, or quiet quitting for that matter, is effective at slowing a company to a halt because work is never as routine as schedules, processes, leadership principles, or any other codified rules might allow management to believe.

The tension we face is that on an everyday basis, we want things to be simple and certain. But that means ignoring the messiness of reality. And when we delegate that simplicity and certainty to systems—either to institutions or increasingly to software—they feel impersonal and oppressive. People used to say that they felt like large institutions were treating them like a number. For decades, we have literally been numbers in government and corporate data structures.

Breakdown

As historian Jill Lepore wrote, we used to be in a world of mystery. Then we began to understand those mysteries and use science to turn them into facts. And then we quantified and operationalized those facts through numbers. We’re currently in a world of data—overwhelming, human-incomprehensible amounts of data—that we use to make predictions even though that data isn’t enough to fully grapple with the complexity of reality.

How do we move past this era of breakdown? It’s not by eschewing technology. We need our complex socio-technical systems. We need mental models to make sense of the complexities of our world. But we also need to understand and accept their inherent imperfections. We need to make sure we’re avoiding static and biased patterns—of the sort that a state functionary or a rigid algorithm might produce—while leaving room for the messiness inherent in human interactions. Chapman calls this balance “fluidity,” where society (and really, the tech we use every day) gives us the disparate things we need to be happy while also enabling the complex global society we have today.

These things can be at odds. As social animals, we need the feeling of belonging, like being part of a small tribe. However, at the same time, we have to “belong” in a technological, scientific, and institutional world of eight billion interconnected people. To feel connected to those around us, we need access to cultural creativity, whether it be art, music, literature, or forms of entertainment and engagement that have yet to be invented. But we also need to avoid being fragmented into nanogenres where we can’t share that creativity and cultural appreciation with others. We must be able to be who we are and choose who we associate with on an ever-changing basis while being able to play our parts to make society function and feel a sense of responsibility and accomplishment in doing so. And perhaps most importantly, we need the ability to make sense of the torrent of information that we encounter every day while accepting that it will never be fully coherent, nor does it need to be.

This isn’t meant to be idealistic or something for the distant future. It’s something we need now. How well civilization functions in the coming years depends upon making this a reality. On our present course, we face the nihilism that comes with information overload, careening from a world that a decade ago felt more or less orderly to one in which nothing has any clear meaning or trustworthiness. It’s in an environment like this that polarization, conspiracies, and misinformation thrive. This leads to a loss of societal trust. Our institutions and economic systems are based upon trust. We’ve seen what societies look like when trust disappears: ordinary social systems fail, and when they do work, they are more expensive, capricious, violent, and unfair.

The challenge for us is to think how we can create new ways of being and thinking that move us—and not just a few of us but everyone—to be able to at first cope, and then later thrive, in this world we’re in.

Fluidity

There’s no single solution. It’ll be a million little things, but they all will share the overall themes of resilience in the form of fluidity. Technology’s role in this is vital, helping us make tentative, contextual, partial sense of the complex world around us. When we take a snapshot of a bird—or listen to its song—with an app that identifies the species, it is helping us gain some limited understanding. When we use our phones to find a park, local restaurant, or even a gas station in an unfamiliar city, it is helping us make our way in a new environment. On vacation in France, one of us used our phone’s real-time translation feature to understand what our tour guide was saying. Think of how we use weather apps, fitness apps, or self-guided museum tour apps to improve our lives. We need more tools like this in every context to help us to understand nuance and context beyond the level we have time for in our busy lives.

It’s not enough to have software, AI or otherwise, interpret the world for us. What we need is the ability to seamlessly navigate all the different contexts in our life. Take, for instance, the problem of understanding whether something seen online is true. This was already tricky and is now fiendishly difficult what with the Internet, social media, and now generative AI all laden with plausible untruths. But what does “true” mean, anyway? It’s equally wrong to believe in a universal, singular, objective truth in all situations as to not know what to believe and hold everything to be equally false (or true). Both of these options give propagandists a leg up.

Instead, we need fluidity: in Chapman’s terms, to be able to always ask, “In what sense?” Let’s say you see a video online of something that doesn’t seem physically possible and ask, “Is this real?” A useful technology would help you ask, “In what sense?” Maybe it’s something done physically, with no trickery involved, and it’s just surprising. Maybe it’s a magic trick, or real as in created for a TV show promotion, but not actually something that happened in the physical world. Maybe it was created by a movie special effects team. Maybe it’s propaganda created by a nation state. Sorting through contexts like this can be tedious, and while we intuitively do it all the time, in a technologically complex world we could use some help. It’s important to enable people to continue to communicate and interact in ways that make us feel comfortable, not completely driven either by past social custom or by algorithms that optimize for engagement. Think WhatsApp groups where people just talk, not Facebook groups that are mediated and controlled by Meta.

Belonging is important, and its lack creates uncertainty and a lack of trust. There are lessons we can learn from nontechnological examples. For example, Switzerland has a remarkable number of “associations”—for everything from business groups to bird watching clubs—and a huge number of Swiss residents take part. This sort of thing was once part of American culture but declined dramatically over the 20th century as documented in Putnam’s classic book Bowling Alone. Technology can enable dynamic new ways for people to associate as the online and offline worlds fuse—think of the Internet’s ability to help people find each other—though it must avoid the old mindset of optimization at all costs.

We all struggle with life in our postmodern society, that unplanned experiment of speed, scale, scope, and complexity never before seen in human history. Technology can help by bridging what our minds expect with how systems work. What if every large institution, whether a government or corporation, were to enable us to interact with it not on its terms, in their bureaucratic language and with all the complexity that large systems entail, but with computational tools that use natural language, understand context and nuance, and yet can still interface with the data structures that make its large systems tick. There are some promising early prototypes, such as tools that simplify the process of filling out tedious paperwork. That might feel small, almost trivial. But refined, and in aggregate, this could represent a sea change in how we interact with large systems. They will come to feel no longer as impersonal and imposing bureaucracies but as enablers of functioning and flourishing societies.

And it’s not all about large scale either. Scale isn’t always desirable; as Bill McKibben wrote in Eaarth, we’d probably be better off with the Fortune 500,000 than the Fortune 500. Scale brings with it the ills of Seeing Like a State; the authoritarian high modernist mindset takes over at large scale. And while large organizations can exist, they can’t be the only ones with access to, or ability to, afford new technologies. Enabling the dynamic creation and destruction of new organizations and new types of organization—and legal and technical mechanisms to prevent lock-in and to prevent enclosure of public commons—will be essential to keep this new fluid era thriving. We can create new “federated” networks of organizations and social groups, like we’re seeing in the open social web of Mastodon and similar technologies, ones where local groups can have local rules that differ from, but do not conflict with, their participation in the wider whole.

This shift is not just about how society will work but also how we see ourselves. We’re all getting a bit more used to the idea of having multiple identities, and some of us have gotten used to having a “portfolio career” that is not defined by a single hat that we wear. While today there is often economic precarity involved with this way of living, there need not be, and the more we can all do the things that are the best expressions of ourselves, the better off society will be.

Ahead

As Mumford wrote in his classic history of technology, “The essential distinction between a machine and a tool lies in the degree of independence in the operation from the skill and motive power of the operator.” A tool is controlled by a human user, whereas a machine does what its designer wanted. As technologists, we can build tools, rather than machines, that flexibly allow people to make partial, contextual sense of the online and physical world around them. As citizens, we can create meaningful organizations that span our communities but without the permanence (and thus overhead) of old-school organizations.

Seeing like a data structure has been both a blessing and a curse. Increasingly, it feels like it is an avalanche, an out-of-control force that will reshape everything in its path. But it’s also a choice, and there is a different path we can take. The job of enabling a new society, one that accepts the complexity and messiness of our current world without being overwhelmed by it, is one all of us can take part in. There is a different future we can build, together.

This essay was written with Barath Raghavan, and originally appeared on the Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center‘s website.

Posted on June 3, 2024 at 7:06 AMView Comments

Sidebar photo of Bruce Schneier by Joe MacInnis.