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Match Fixing in Tennis

The BBC and Buzzfeed are jointly reporting on match fixing in tennis. Their story is based partially on leaked documents and partly on data analysis.

BuzzFeed News began its investigation after devising an algorithm to analyse gambling on professional tennis matches over the past seven years. It identified 15 players who regularly lost matches in which heavily lopsided betting appeared to substantially shift the odds – a red flag for possible match-fixing.

Four players showed particularly unusual patterns, losing almost all of these red-flag matches. Given the bookmakers’ initial odds, the chances that the players would perform that badly were less than 1 in 1,000.

More details of the analysis here.

EDITED TO ADD (2/11): This is also a problem in sumo wrestling.

Posted on January 18, 2016 at 10:50 AMView Comments

Should We Allow Bulk Searching of Cloud Archives?

Jonathan Zittrain proposes a very interesting hypothetical:

Suppose a laptop were found at the apartment of one of the perpetrators of last year’s Paris attacks. It’s searched by the authorities pursuant to a warrant, and they find a file on the laptop that’s a set of instructions for carrying out the attacks.

The discovery would surely help in the prosecution of the laptop’s owner, tying him to the crime. But a junior prosecutor has a further idea. The private document was likely shared among other conspirators, some of whom are still on the run or unknown entirely. Surely Google has the ability to run a search of all Gmail inboxes, outboxes, and message drafts folders, plus Google Drive cloud storage, to see if any of its 900 million users are currently in possession of that exact document. If Google could be persuaded or ordered to run the search, it could generate a list of only those Google accounts possessing the precise file ­ and all other Google users would remain undisturbed, except for the briefest of computerized “touches” on their accounts to see if the file reposed there.

He then goes through the reasons why Google should run the search, and then reasons why Google shouldn’t—and finally says what he would do.

I think it’s important to think through hypotheticals like this before they happen. We’re better able to reason about them now, when they are just hypothetical.

Posted on January 16, 2016 at 5:26 AMView Comments

Fighting DRM in the W3C

Cory Doctorow has a good post on the EFF website about how they’re trying to fight digital rights management software in the World Wide Web Consortium.

So we came back with a new proposal: the W3C could have its cake and eat it too. It could adopt a rule that requires members who help make DRM standards to promise not to sue people who report bugs in tools that conform to those standards, nor could they sue people just for making a standards-based tool that connected to theirs. They could make DRM, but only if they made sure that they took steps to stop that DRM from being used to attack the open Web.

The W3C added DRM to the web’s standards in 2013. This doesn’t reverse that terrible decision, but it’s a step in the right direction.

Posted on January 14, 2016 at 2:13 PMView Comments

Sean Penn's Opsec

This article talks about the opsec used by Sean Penn surrounding his meeting with El Chapo.

Security experts say there aren’t enough public details to fully analyze Penn’s operational security (opsec). But they described the paragraph above as “incomprehensible” and “gibberish.” Let’s try to break it down:

  • Penn describes using “TracPhones,” by which he likely means TracFones, which are cheap phones that take calling cards so they’re not linked to a credit card or account. They’re often called burners, but you don’t actually throw it in the trash after a call; instead you might swap out the SIM card or use different calling cards for different people. Hollywood loves these! Katie Holmes reportedly used one to plan her divorce from Tom Cruise. They’re a reasonable security measure, but it still creates phone records that live with, and can be requested from, cell phone carriers.
  • Penn says he “mirror[ed] through Blackphones,” which are relatively expensive phones sold by Silent Circle that offer a more secure operating system than a typical off-the-shelf phone. It runs Internet through a VPN (to shield the user’s IP address and encrypt their Web traffic) and end-to-end encrypts calls and messages sent to other Blackphones. Unlike with the TracFone, Penn would have a credit card tied to the account on this phone. It’s unclear what Penn means when he says he “mirrored” through the phone; the phrase “mirrored” typically means to duplicate something. As he wrote it, it sounds like he duplicated messages on the secure Blackphone that were being sent some other, potentially less secure, way, which would be dumb, if true. “I’m not sure what he means.” said Silent Circle CEO Mike Janke via email. “It’s a strange term and most likely he doesn’t know what he is saying.”
  • Penn says he used “anonymous” email addresses and that he and his companions accessed messages left as drafts in a shared email account. That likely means the emails were stored unencrypted, a bad security practice. If he were sharing the account with a person using an IP address that was the target of an investigation, i.e. any IP address associated with El Chapo’s crew, then all messages shared this way would be monitored. For the record, that did not work out very well for former CIA director David Petraeus, who used draft messages to communicate with his mistress and got busted when her IP address was targeted in an online harassment investigation.
  • Elsewhere in the article, Penn says Guzman corresponded with Mexican actress Kate del Castillo via BBMs (Blackberry messages). Those only have unique end-to-end encryption if a user has opted for BBM Protected. Law enforcement has been able to intercept BBMs in the past. And Mexican officials have told the media that they were monitoring del Castillo for months, following a meeting she had last summer with El Chapo’s lawyers, before she had reached out to Penn. Law enforcement even reportedly got photos of Penn’s arrival at the airport in Mexico.
  • In the most impressive operational, if not personal, security on display, Sean Penn says that when he traveled to Mexico, he left all of his electronics in Los Angeles, knowing that El Chapo’s crew would force him to leave them behind.

There has been lots of speculation about whether this was enough, or whether Mexican officials tracked El Chapo down because of his meeting with Penn.

Posted on January 14, 2016 at 6:32 AMView Comments

The Internet of Things that Talk About You Behind Your Back

French translation

SilverPush is an Indian startup that’s trying to figure out all the different computing devices you own. It embeds inaudible sounds into the webpages you read and the television commercials you watch. Software secretly embedded in your computers, tablets, and smartphones picks up the signals, and then uses cookies to transmit that information back to SilverPush. The result is that the company can track you across your different devices. It can correlate the television commercials you watch with the web searches you make. It can link the things you do on your tablet with the things you do on your work computer.

Your computerized things are talking about you behind your back, and for the most part you can’t stop them­—or even learn what they’re saying.

This isn’t new, but it’s getting worse.

Surveillance is the business model of the Internet, and the more these companies know about the intimate details of your life, the more they can profit from it. Already there are dozens of companies that secretly spy on you as you browse the Internet, connecting your behavior on different sites and using that information to target advertisements. You know it when you search for something like a Hawaiian vacation, and ads for similar vacations follow you around the Internet for weeks. Companies like Google and Facebook make an enormous profit connecting the things you write about and are interested in with companies trying to sell you things.

Cross-device tracking is the latest obsession for Internet marketers. You probably use multiple Internet devices: your computer, your smartphone, your tablet, maybe your Internet-enabled television—­and, increasingly, “Internet of Things” devices like smart thermostats and appliances. All of these devices are spying on you, but the different spies are largely unaware of each other. Start-up companies like SilverPush, 4Info, Drawbridge, Flurry, and Cross Screen Consultants, as well as the big players like Google, Facebook, and Yahoo, are all experimenting with different technologies to “fix” this problem.

Retailers want this information very much. They want to know whether their television advertising causes people to search for their products on the Internet. They want to correlate people’s web searching on their smartphones with their buying behavior on their computers. They want to track people’s locations using the surveillance capabilities of their smartphones, and use that information to send geographically targeted ads to their computers. They want the surveillance data from smart appliances correlated with everything else.

This is where the Internet of Things makes the problem worse. As computers get embedded into more of the objects we live with and use, and permeate more aspects of our lives, more companies want to use them to spy on us without our knowledge or consent.

Technically, of course, we did consent. The license agreement we didn’t read but legally agreed to when we unthinkingly clicked “I agree” on a screen, or opened a package we purchased, gives all of those companies the legal right to conduct all of this surveillance. And the way US privacy law is currently written, they own all of that data and don’t need to allow us to see it.

We accept all of this Internet surveillance because we don’t really think about it. If there were a dozen people from Internet marketing companies with pens and clipboards peering over our shoulders as we sent our Gmails and browsed the Internet, most of us would object immediately. If the companies that made our smartphone apps actually followed us around all day, or if the companies that collected our license plate data could be seen as we drove, we would demand they stop. And if our televisions, computer, and mobile devices talked about us and coordinated their behavior in a way we could hear, we would be creeped out.

The Federal Trade Commission is looking at cross-device tracking technologies, with an eye to regulating them. But if recent history is a guide, any regulations will be minor and largely ineffective at addressing the larger problem.

We need to do better. We need to have a conversation about the privacy implications of cross-device tracking, but—more importantly­—we need to think about the ethics of our surveillance economy. Do we want companies knowing the intimate details of our lives, and being able to store that data forever? Do we truly believe that we have no rights to see the data that’s collected about us, to correct data that’s wrong, or to have data deleted that’s personal or embarrassing? At a minimum, we need limits on the behavioral data that can legally be collected about us and how long it can be stored, a right to download data collected about us, and a ban on third-party ad tracking. The last one is vital: it’s the companies that spy on us from website to website, or from device to device, that are doing the most damage to our privacy.

The Internet surveillance economy is less than 20 years old, and emerged because there was no regulation limiting any of this behavior. It’s now a powerful industry, and it’s expanding past computers and smartphones into every aspect of our lives. It’s long past time we set limits on what these computers, and the companies that control them, can say about us and do to us behind our backs.

This essay previously appeared on Vice Motherboard.

Posted on January 13, 2016 at 5:35 AMView Comments

Michael Hayden and the Dutch Government Are against Crypto Backdoors

Last week, former NSA Director Michael Hayden made a very strong argument against deliberately weakening security products by adding backdoors:

Americans’ safety is best served by the highest level of technology possible, and that the country’s intelligence agencies have figured out ways to get around encryption.

“Before any civil libertarians want to come up to me afterwards and get my autograph,” he explained at a Tuesday panel on national security hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations, “let me tell you how we got around it: Bulk data and metadata [collection].”

Encryption is “a law enforcement issue more than an intelligence issue,” Hayden argued, “because, frankly, intelligence gets to break all sorts of rules, to cheat, to use other paths.”

[…]

“I don’t think it’s a winning hand to attempt to legislate against technological progress,” Hayden said.

[…]

“It’s a combination of technology and business,” Hayden said. “Creating a door for the government to enter, at the technological level, creates a very bad business decision on the parts of these companies because that is by definition weaker encryption than would otherwise be available … Both of those realities are true.”

This isn’t new, and is yet another example of the split between the law-enforcement and intelligence communities on this issue. What is new is Hayden saying, effectively: Hey FBI, you guys are idiots for trying to get back doors.

On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, the Dutch government has come out against backdoors in security products, and in favor of strong encryption.

Meanwhile, I have been hearing rumors that “serious” US legislation mandating backdoors is about to be introduced. These rumors are pervasive, but without details.

Posted on January 12, 2016 at 1:22 PMView Comments

Mac OS X, iOS, and Flash Had the Most Discovered Vulnerabilities in 2015

Interesting analysis:

Which software had the most publicly disclosed vulnerabilities this year? The winner is none other than Apple’s Mac OS X, with 384 vulnerabilities. The runner-up? Apple’s iOS, with 375 vulnerabilities.

Rounding out the top five are Adobe’s Flash Player, with 314 vulnerabilities; Adobe’s AIR SDK, with 246 vulnerabilities; and Adobe AIR itself, also with 246 vulnerabilities. For comparison, last year the top five (in order) were: Microsoft’s Internet Explorer, Apple’s Mac OS X, the Linux Kernel, Google’s Chrome, and Apple’s iOS.

The article goes on to explain why Windows vulnerabilities might be counted higher, and gives the top 50 software packages for vulnerabilities.

The interesting discussion topic is how this relates to how secure the software is. Is software with more discovered vulnerabilities better because they’re all fixed? Is software with more discovered vulnerabilities less secure because there are so many? Or are they all equally bad, and people just look at some software more than others? No one knows.

Posted on January 11, 2016 at 2:33 PMView Comments

Sidebar photo of Bruce Schneier by Joe MacInnis.