Entries Tagged "spam"

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Cybercrime as a Tragedy of the Commons

Two very interesting points in this essay on cybercrime. The first is that cybercrime isn’t as big a problem as conventional wisdom makes it out to be.

We have examined cybercrime from an economics standpoint and found a story at odds with the conventional wisdom. A few criminals do well, but cybercrime is a relentless, low-profit struggle for the majority. Spamming, stealing passwords or pillaging bank accounts might appear a perfect business. Cybercriminals can be thousands of miles from the scene of the crime, they can download everything they need online, and there’s little training or capital outlay required. Almost anyone can do it.

Well, not really. Structurally, the economics of cybercrimes like spam and password-stealing are the same as those of fishing. Economics long ago established that common-access resources make for bad business opportunities. No matter how large the original opportunity, new entrants continue to arrive, driving the average return ever downward. Just as unregulated fish stocks are driven to exhaustion, there is never enough “easy money” to go around.

The second is that exaggerating the effects of cybercrime is a direct result of how the estimates are generated.

For one thing, in numeric surveys, errors are almost always upward: since the amounts of estimated losses must be positive, there’s no limit on the upside, but zero is a hard limit on the downside. As a consequence, respondent errors –­ or outright lies — cannot be canceled out. Even worse, errors get amplified when researchers scale between the survey group and the overall population.

Suppose we asked 5,000 people to report their cybercrime losses, which we will then extrapolate over a population of 200 million. Every dollar claimed gets multiplied by 40,000. A single individual who falsely claims $25,000 in losses adds a spurious $1 billion to the estimate. And since no one can claim negative losses, the error can’t be canceled.

[…]

A cybercrime where profits are slim and competition is ruthless also offers simple explanations of facts that are otherwise puzzling. Credentials and stolen credit-card numbers are offered for sale at pennies on the dollar for the simple reason that they are hard to monetize. Cybercrime billionaires are hard to locate because there aren’t any. Few people know anyone who has lost substantial money because victims are far rarer than the exaggerated estimates would imply.

Posted on May 2, 2012 at 7:10 AMView Comments

Spam as a Business

Interesting research: Kirill Levchenko, et al. (2010), “Click Trajectories — End-to-End Analysis of the Spam Value Chain,” IEEE Symposium on Security and Privacy 2011, Oakland, California, 24 May 2011.

Abstract: Spam-based advertising is a business. While it has engendered both widespread antipathy and a multi-billion dollar anti-spam industry, it continues to exist because it fuels a profitable enterprise. We lack, however, a solid understanding of this enterprise’s full structure, and thus most anti-spam interventions focus on only one facet of the overall spam value chain (e.g., spam filtering, URL blacklisting, site takedown). In this paper we present a holistic analysis that quantifies the full set of resources employed to monetize spam email — including naming, hosting, payment and fulfillment — using extensive measurements of three months of diverse spam data, broad crawling of naming and hosting infrastructures, and over 100 purchases from spam-advertised sites. We relate these resources to the organizations who administer them and then use this data to characterize the relative prospects for defensive interventions at each link in the spam value chain. In particular, we provide the first strong evidence of payment bottlenecks in the spam value chain; 95% of spam-advertised pharmaceutical, replica and software products are monetized using merchant services from just a handful of banks.

It’s a surprisingly small handful of banks:

All told, they saw 13 banks handling 95% of the 76 orders for which they received transaction information. (Only one U.S. bank was seen settling spam transactions: Wells Fargo.) But just three banks handled the majority of transactions: Azerigazbank in Azerbaijan, DnB NOR in Latvia (although the bank is headquartered in Norway), and St. Kitts-Nevis-Anguilla National Bank in the Caribbean. In addition, “most herbal and replica purchases cleared through the same bank in St. Kitts, … while most pharmaceutical affiliate programs used two banks (in Azerbaijan and Latvia), and software was handled entirely by two banks (in Latvia and Russia),” they said.

This points to a fruitful avenue to reduce spam: go after the banks.

Here’s an older paper on the economics of spam.

Posted on June 9, 2011 at 1:53 PMView Comments

Ebook Fraud

Interesting post — and discussion — on Making Light about ebook fraud. Currently there are two types of fraud. The first is content farming, discussed in these two interesting blog posts. People are creating automatically generated content, web-collected content, or fake content, turning it into a book, and selling it on an ebook site like Amazon.com. Then they use multiple identities to give it good reviews. (If it gets a bad review, the scammer just relists the same content under a new name.) That second blog post contains a screen shot of something called “Autopilot Kindle Cash,” which promises to teach people how to post dozens of ebooks to Amazon.com per day.

The second type of fraud is stealing a book and selling it as an ebook. So someone could scan a real book and sell it on an ebook site, even though he doesn’t own the copyright. It could be a book that isn’t already available as an ebook, or it could be a “low cost” version of a book that is already available. Amazon doesn’t seem particularly motivated to deal with this sort of fraud. And it too is suitable for automation.

Broadly speaking, there’s nothing new here. All complex ecosystems have parasites, and every open communications system we’ve ever built gets overrun by scammers and spammers. Far from making editors superfluous, systems that democratize publishing have an even greater need for editors. The solutions are not new, either: reputation-based systems, trusted recommenders, white lists, takedown notices. Google has implemented a bunch of security countermeasures against content farming; ebook sellers should implement them as well. It’ll be interesting to see what particular sort of mix works in this case.

Posted on April 4, 2011 at 9:18 AMView Comments

The Business of Botnets

It can be lucrative:

Avanesov allegedly rented and sold part of his botnet, a common business model for those who run the networks. Other cybercriminals can rent the hacked machines for a specific time for their own purposes, such as sending a spam run or mining the PCs for personal details and files, among other nefarious actions.

Dutch prosecutors believe that Avanesov made up to €100,000 ($139,000) a month from renting and selling his botnet just for spam, said Wim De Bruin, spokesman for the Public Prosecution Service in Rotterdam. Avanesov was able to sell parts of the botnet off “because it was very easy for him to extend the botnet again,” by infecting more PCs, he said.

EDITED TO ADD (11/11): Paper on the market price of bots.

Posted on November 4, 2010 at 7:04 AMView Comments

Analyzing CAPTCHAs

New research: “Attacks and Design of Image Recognition CAPTCHAs.”

Abstract. We systematically study the design of image recognition CAPTCHAs (IRCs) in this paper. We first review and examine all IRCs schemes known to us and evaluate each scheme against the practical requirements in CAPTCHA applications, particularly in large-scale real-life applications such as Gmail and Hotmail. Then we present a security analysis of the representative schemes we have identified. For the schemes that remain unbroken, we present our novel attacks. For the schemes for which known attacks are available, we propose a theoretical explanation why those schemes have failed. Next, we provide a simple but novel framework for guiding the design of robust IRCs. Then we propose an innovative IRC called Cortcha that is scalable to meet the requirements of large-scale applications. Cortcha relies on recognizing an object by exploiting its surrounding context, a task that humans can perform well but computers cannot. An infinite number of types of objects can be used to generate challenges, which can effectively disable the learning process in machine learning attacks. Cortcha does not require the images in its image database to be labeled. Image collection and CAPTCHA generation can be fully automated. Our usability studies indicate that, compared with Google’s text CAPTCHA, Cortcha yields a slightly higher human accuracy rate but on average takes more time to solve a challenge.

The paper attacks IMAGINATION (designed at Penn State around 2005) and ARTiFACIAL (designed at MSR Redmond around 2004).

Posted on October 5, 2010 at 7:22 AMView Comments

Remote Printing to an E-Mail Address

This is cool technology from HP:

Each printer with the ePrint capability will be assigned its own e-mail address. If someone wants to print a document from an iPhone, the document will go to HP’s data center, where it is rendered into the correct format, and then sent to the person’s printer. The process takes about 25 seconds.

Maybe this feature was designed with robust security, but I’m not betting on it. The first people to hack the system will certainly be spammers. (For years I’ve gotten more spam on my fax machine than legitimate faxes.) And why would HP fix the spam problem when it will just enable them to sell overpriced ink cartridges faster?

Any other illegitimate uses for this technology?

EDITED TO ADD (7/13): Location-sensitive advertising to your printer.

Posted on June 18, 2010 at 1:37 PMView Comments

Cryptography Spam

I think this is a first.

Information security, and protection of your e-money. Electronic payments and calculations, on means of a network the Internet or by means of bank credit cards, continue to win the world market. Electronic payments, it quickly, conveniently, but is not safely. Now there is a real war, between users and hackers. Your credit card can be forgery. The virus can get into your computer. Most not pleasant, what none, cannot give you guarantees, safety.

But, this disgrace can put an end.

I have developed the program which, does impossible the fact of abduction of a passwords, countersign, and personal data of the users. In the program the technology of an artificial intellect is used. As you cannot, guess about what the person thinks. As and not possible to guess, algorithm of the program. This system to crack it is impossible.

I assure that this system, will be most popular in the near future. I wish to create the company, with branches in the different countries of the world, and I invite all interested persons.

Together we will construct very profitable business.

Posted on June 30, 2009 at 1:36 PMView Comments

Interview with an Adware Developer

Fascinating:

I should probably first speak about how adware works. Most adware targets Internet Explorer (IE) users because obviously they’re the biggest share of the market. In addition, they tend to be the less-savvy chunk of the market. If you’re using IE, then either you don’t care or you don’t know about all the vulnerabilities that IE has.

IE has a mechanism called a Browser Helper Object (BHO) which is basically a gob of executable code that gets informed of web requests as they’re going. It runs in the actual browser process, which means it can do anything the browser can do—which means basically anything. We would have a Browser Helper Object that actually served the ads, and then we made it so that you had to kill all the instances of the browser to be able to delete the thing. That’s a little bit of persistence right there.

If you also have an installer, a little executable, you can make a Registry entry and every time this thing reboots, the installer will check to make sure the BHO is there. If it is, great. If it isn’t, then it will install it. That’s fine until somebody goes and deletes the executable.

The next thing that Direct Revenue did—actually I should say what I did, because I was pretty heavily involved in this—was make a poller which continuously polls about every 10 seconds or so to see if the BHO was there and alive. If it was, great. If it wasn’t, [ the poller would ] install it. To make sure the poller was less likely to be detected, we developed this algorithm (a really trivial one) for making a random-looking filename that was consistent per machine but was not easy to guess. I think it was the first 6 or 8 characters of the DES-encoded MAC address. You take the MAC address, encode it with DES, take the first six characters and that was it. That was pretty good, except the file itself would be the same binary. If you md5-summed the file it would always be the same everywhere, and it was always in the same location.

Next we made a function shuffler, which would go into an executable, take the functions and randomly shuffle them. Once you do that, then of course the signature’s all messed up. [ We also shuffled ] a lot of the pointers within each actual function. It completely changed the shape of the executable.

We then made a bootstrapper, which was a tiny tiny piece of code written in Assembler which would decrypt the executable in memory, and then just run it. At the same time, we also made a virtual process executable. I’ve never heard of anybody else doing this before. Windows has this thing called Create Remote Thread. Basically, the semantics of Create Remote Thread are: You’re a process, I’m a different process. I call you and say “Hey! I have this bit of code. I’d really like it if you’d run this.” You’d say, “Sure,” because you’re a Windows process—you’re all hippie-like and free love. Windows processes, by the way, are insanely promiscuous. So! We would call a bunch of processes, hand them all a gob of code, and they would all run it. Each process would all know about two of the other ones. This allowed them to set up a ring…mutual support, right?

So we’ve progressed now from having just a Registry key entry, to having an executable, to having a randomly-named executable, to having an executable which is shuffled around a little bit on each machine, to one that’s encrypted—really more just obfuscated—to an executable that doesn’t even run as an executable. It runs merely as a series of threads. Now, those threads can communicate with one another, they would check to make sure that the BHO was there and up, and that the whatever other software we had was also up.

There was one further step that we were going to take but didn’t end up doing, and that is we were going to get rid of threads entirely, and just use interrupt handlers. It turns out that in Windows, you can get access to the interrupt handler pretty easily. In fact, you can register with the OS a chunk of code to handle a given interrupt. Then all you have to do is arrange for an interrupt to happen, and every time that interrupt happens, you wake up, do your stuff and go away. We never got to actually do that, but it was something we were thinking we’d do.

EDITED TO ADD (1/30): Good commentary on the interview, showing how it whitewashes history.

EDITED TO ADD (2/13): Some more commentary.

Posted on January 30, 2009 at 6:19 AMView Comments

Sidebar photo of Bruce Schneier by Joe MacInnis.