DOGE as a National Cyberattack

In the span of just weeks, the US government has experienced what may be the most consequential security breach in its history—not through a sophisticated cyberattack or an act of foreign espionage, but through official orders by a billionaire with a poorly defined government role. And the implications for national security are profound.

First, it was reported that people associated with the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) had accessed the US Treasury computer system, giving them the ability to collect data on and potentially control the department’s roughly $5.45 trillion in annual federal payments.

Then, we learned that uncleared DOGE personnel had gained access to classified data from the US Agency for International Development, possibly copying it onto their own systems. Next, the Office of Personnel Management—which holds detailed personal data on millions of federal employees, including those with security clearances—was compromised. After that, Medicaid and Medicare records were compromised.

Meanwhile, only partially redacted names of CIA employees were sent over an unclassified email account. DOGE personnel are also reported to be feeding Education Department data into artificial intelligence software, and they have also started working at the Department of Energy.

This story is moving very fast. On Feb. 8, a federal judge blocked the DOGE team from accessing the Treasury Department systems any further. But given that DOGE workers have already copied data and possibly installed and modified software, it’s unclear how this fixes anything.

In any case, breaches of other critical government systems are likely to follow unless federal employees stand firm on the protocols protecting national security.

The systems that DOGE is accessing are not esoteric pieces of our nation’s infrastructure—they are the sinews of government.

For example, the Treasury Department systems contain the technical blueprints for how the federal government moves money, while the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) network contains information on who and what organizations the government employs and contracts with.

What makes this situation unprecedented isn’t just the scope, but also the method of attack. Foreign adversaries typically spend years attempting to penetrate government systems such as these, using stealth to avoid being seen and carefully hiding any tells or tracks. The Chinese government’s 2015 breach of OPM was a significant US security failure, and it illustrated how personnel data could be used to identify intelligence officers and compromise national security.

In this case, external operators with limited experience and minimal oversight are doing their work in plain sight and under massive public scrutiny: gaining the highest levels of administrative access and making changes to the United States’ most sensitive networks, potentially introducing new security vulnerabilities in the process.

But the most alarming aspect isn’t just the access being granted. It’s the systematic dismantling of security measures that would detect and prevent misuse—including standard incident response protocols, auditing, and change-tracking mechanisms—by removing the career officials in charge of those security measures and replacing them with inexperienced operators.

The Treasury’s computer systems have such an impact on national security that they were designed with the same principle that guides nuclear launch protocols: No single person should have unlimited power. Just as launching a nuclear missile requires two separate officers turning their keys simultaneously, making changes to critical financial systems traditionally requires multiple authorized personnel working in concert.

This approach, known as “separation of duties,” isn’t just bureaucratic red tape; it’s a fundamental security principle as old as banking itself. When your local bank processes a large transfer, it requires two different employees to verify the transaction. When a company issues a major financial report, separate teams must review and approve it. These aren’t just formalities—they’re essential safeguards against corruption and error. These measures have been bypassed or ignored. It’s as if someone found a way to rob Fort Knox by simply declaring that the new official policy is to fire all the guards and allow unescorted visits to the vault.

The implications for national security are staggering. Sen. Ron Wyden said his office had learned that the attackers gained privileges that allow them to modify core programs in Treasury Department computers that verify federal payments, access encrypted keys that secure financial transactions, and alter audit logs that record system changes. Over at OPM, reports indicate that individuals associated with DOGE connected an unauthorized server into the network. They are also reportedly training AI software on all of this sensitive data.

This is much more critical than the initial unauthorized access. These new servers have unknown capabilities and configurations, and there’s no evidence that this new code has gone through any rigorous security testing protocols. The AIs being trained are certainly not secure enough for this kind of data. All are ideal targets for any adversary, foreign or domestic, also seeking access to federal data.

There’s a reason why every modification—hardware or software—to these systems goes through a complex planning process and includes sophisticated access-control mechanisms. The national security crisis is that these systems are now much more vulnerable to dangerous attacks at the same time that the legitimate system administrators trained to protect them have been locked out.

By modifying core systems, the attackers have not only compromised current operations, but have also left behind vulnerabilities that could be exploited in future attacks—giving adversaries such as Russia and China an unprecedented opportunity. These countries have long targeted these systems. And they don’t just want to gather intelligence—they also want to understand how to disrupt these systems in a crisis.

Now, the technical details of how these systems operate, their security protocols, and their vulnerabilities are now potentially exposed to unknown parties without any of the usual safeguards. Instead of having to breach heavily fortified digital walls, these parties  can simply walk through doors that are being propped open—and then erase evidence of their actions.

The security implications span three critical areas.

First, system manipulation: External operators can now modify operations while also altering audit trails that would track their changes. Second, data exposure: Beyond accessing personal information and transaction records, these operators can copy entire system architectures and security configurations—in one case, the technical blueprint of the country’s federal payment infrastructure. Third, and most critically, is the issue of system control: These operators can alter core systems and authentication mechanisms while disabling the very tools designed to detect such changes. This is more than modifying operations; it is modifying the infrastructure that those operations use.

To address these vulnerabilities, three immediate steps are essential. First, unauthorized access must be revoked and proper authentication protocols restored. Next, comprehensive system monitoring and change management must be reinstated—which, given the difficulty of cleaning a compromised system, will likely require a complete system reset. Finally, thorough audits must be conducted of all system changes made during this period.

This is beyond politics—this is a matter of national security. Foreign national intelligence organizations will be quick to take advantage of both the chaos and the new insecurities to steal US data and install backdoors to allow for future access.

Each day of continued unrestricted access makes the eventual recovery more difficult and increases the risk of irreversible damage to these critical systems. While the full impact may take time to assess, these steps represent the minimum necessary actions to begin restoring system integrity and security protocols.

Assuming that anyone in the government still cares.

This essay was written with Davi Ottenheimer, and originally appeared in Foreign Policy.

Posted on February 13, 2025 at 7:03 AM101 Comments

Comments

Mark February 13, 2025 8:44 AM

Assuming that not enough people with power care – is this even recoverable assuming that Democrats or someone less ‘burn it down’ gets into power in the future? If the infection gets so deep over the next four years, would you ever go back without some sort of hard reset?

Nerijus February 13, 2025 8:52 AM

“What makes this situation unprecedented isn’t just the scope, but also the method of attack. Foreign adversaries typically spend years attempting to penetrate government systems such as these, using stealth to avoid being seen and carefully hiding any tells or tracks.”

What makes you think this is not the foreign adversary attack? So far, Mump (term derived by historian Timothy Snyder) duo attacked allies (Canada/Denmark) or neutrals/friends (Panama/Mexico) and left adversaries (Russia/China) mostly untouched. To me this is a clear sign in whose pocket Mump are. And this is not only attack, but a coup, too.

Simon February 13, 2025 9:06 AM

I’ve been wondering for a while whether (more likely how many) people have tried walking up to a federal department with some twenty-something men, saying “We’re with DOGE, give us access”, and seeing how far they get…

tfb February 13, 2025 9:37 AM

@Shoal creek

By saying ‘all governments are illegitimate’ you are making what Erik Naggum called a ‘one-bit mind’ mistake: very obviously the legitimacy of a government is at the least a real number: some governments are more legitimate than others.

By say

Robin February 13, 2025 9:46 AM

@Bill – you have missed the point completely. The essay is talking about national (cyber)security, not political legitimacy. It does not question whether it’s the “will of the American people”, but does highlight the fact that the actions are very significantly undermining the existential resilience of the USA.

fd February 13, 2025 9:54 AM

If I’m reading this right, in the authors’ preferred universe, “the Government” is not of, by, and for the people. It stands alone, impervious to inspection, control, or correction by those who, according to popular propaganda, “own” it.

No thanks.

Moxieman February 13, 2025 10:59 AM

”Breathless pearl clutching. This is what we elected Trump to do.”

Which has nothing to do with not safeguarding information, reckless access, and firing experienced security personnel and replacing them with inexperienced personnel — laying the groundwork for future attacks.

The goals of the organizations have nothing to do with access and security.

Ishmael February 13, 2025 11:04 AM

Sad times for the american experiment and great call out Bruce. No words for the trolls, hand waivers, and mickey mouse club members.

“If a wise man contends with a foolish man, Whether the fool rages or laughs, there is no peace.” Proverbs 29:9

smaug slayer February 13, 2025 11:15 AM

The naked emporers are now riding the elepants in the room.

Good luck on future security. Skynet aka beast system – netscout x 1000 is

implimented.

Good luck, prayed for everyone.

Bob February 13, 2025 11:35 AM

All of my models are falling apart. Adding risk to the treasury, which has traditionally been considered risk-free for investment purposes. All of it breaks down when that assumption does.

Dancing on thin ice February 13, 2025 12:12 PM

This being what may be the biggest security story ever or at least in a long time warrents further updates.

This week Time magazine writes about the 1960s Senator McCarthy red scare.

a purge of State Department diplomats, including East Asia experts whose knowledge might have helped the U.S. avoid or mitigate its disastrous involvement in the Vietnam War

Expect long term ramifications.

Scott Lewis February 13, 2025 12:14 PM

Some of these comments are ASTOUNDINGLY bizarre. Here we are on a SECURITY blog witnessing people who are security professionals, ostensibly, argue that there’s no need for policies, procedures, access controls, security reviews and audits, and instead saying “we like the guy at the top, just do whatever he wants”. What happened here exactly?

mark February 13, 2025 12:25 PM

Love the right-wing and “libertarian” trolls, Bruce.

I’ve been in the streets in DC three times in the last two weeks, and my sign reads just that: Musk is making cyberwar against the US: JAIL HIM.

This is horrific. And as I spent 10 years at the NIH before retiring as a sr. sysadmin, and had to have at least a POT clearance, everything they’ve done breaks a ton of laws.

Robert February 13, 2025 1:01 PM

Listen to Bill complaining about ad-hominem attacks while his argumentation is pure authoritarian brain-rot. I’m sorry Bill, but I leave my good-faith arguments for people who are worthy.

Montecarlo February 13, 2025 1:15 PM

Technically, it’s a classified secret that government agencies are wasting money. In practice, however, it’s more of an open secret.

Security protocols should be proportional to the risk – and exposing an open secret is relatively low risk. It is generally recognized that the President has the authority to request the executive branch to perform low risk tasks. For risky activities, of course, higher level approval would be required.

A.N February 13, 2025 1:26 PM

Actions have consequences. Too many believe that American Exceptionalism is simply America flexing its muscles, not America being a true leader in the world. The admin is flexing its muscles in a way that is going to damage our country greatly, but that’s what their voters wanted. They mistake hard power for true power, as much of America’s power has been soft power.

Having someone come in and make drastic tech change to the historically most stable financial institution in the world? That’s going to do extreme damage to the country’s soft power due to the instability it may bring. More countries are going to stop attaching to the dollar and start going to China. This will greatly reduce America’s soft power.

Chaos and such flexes is what our country keeps voting for because it feels manufactured pain from Fox News. When the treasury stops payments to medicare/medicaid, stops giving out tax returns, then the pain will become real. Sadly I think we need a breach of massive proportions that gives direct pain to the people for them to take any of this seriously and stop pointing at the imaginary scoreboard claiming that they are winning because the news says their team is ahead

Casey February 13, 2025 1:27 PM

Scott, this article is getting linked to on social media. I would be really surprised if most of the people posting comments here know anything about computer security.

None of them try to dispute the technical points Bruce is making. They have to frame it as a political issue rather than a security issue because the points Bruce makes are valid regardless of one’s political leanings.

Smart people are often wrong, stupid people never are. It’s frustrating to accept that the sorts of people placing these comments will never have their minds changed by anything rational. They’re not here for dialogue or to learn something. They just saw something on their social media feed that got them up in their feelings. Nothing that causes them discomfort by challenging their reality can go unremarked upon.

None of them provide evidence of anything. Not a single one. In fact, several of them go out of their way to say they refuse to read the articles being linked to because they know without reading them that they’re “biased”. It’s all just hurt feelings, bad faith arguments and faux reasonableness.

Every totalitarian movement (on the right or left) must silence or discount experts. Experts get in the way of the state’s monopoly on reality creation. The facts are biased, you see, and meritocracy makes mediocre people feel bad. So of course the expert is only saying that because they’re a dirty liberal/capitalist/whatever.

Only the dictator can give you the unbiased truth. Trust him: he’s doing this for your own good, unlike the experts who are just doing it for the money and power. It’s incredible we ever made it out of the Dark Ages the first time, because the tactic works so well.

Clive Robinson February 13, 2025 1:28 PM

@ ALL,

As some of you know I’m not from the US and for various reasons nolonger have any desire to visit.

That said I can not avoid the effects of what the US Gov does or has done in it’s name.

Depending on who you believe the US consumes around 50% of the worlds resources and generates some of the highest pollution levels. It also believes that it’s law should apply to every place in the world, but has zero respect for anyone elses law.

So I can not ignore what goes on inside the US because it has direct effects on me, yet I have no right to say no by any process.

But I can observe and I can make comment for now.

So let’s look at DOGE, the man in charge is allegedly a multi billionaire, but how did he make his money?

Well it turns out by “sucking on the Government welfare teat”…

But not just the US Gov teat, it turns out the Chinese Gov teat as well, in both cases in sums that total billions.

Is that subject to any “oversight” of course not, will the next load of welfare he gets be subject to oversight? Of course not.

As reported those teenagers and slightly older are not exactly experienced. However sone are known cyber criminals.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I’ve been left with the impression that in many US States criminals are disbarred from public life in many ways. It’s not only that they can not vote, nor are they allowed to hold government employment / posts, nor get the sort of security clearance required. The latter being true of federal government as well.

Now as the actions of these questionable folks can and does effect me directly, do you think I should be entitled to say if I agree with it or not?

Have a careful think before answering.

Anonymous February 13, 2025 1:32 PM

Another related article at Lawfare:

https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/musk-poses-cybersecurity-risks

And, yes, politics aside, the security implications of the way this is happening are troubling. Even if there are already exposures in some of these places, giving more people access, some of whom are unqualified, inexperienced, unknown, un-vetted, can’t make things more secure. I expect big leaks of sensitive data, exploited by both criminals and adversaries.

Anonymous February 13, 2025 1:32 PM

@Moxieman “The goals of the organizations have nothing to do with access and security.”
Why should we care about the security of a harmful, criminal organization?

Billy Bob February 13, 2025 1:43 PM

This DOGE takeover is setting the stage for massive Silicon Valley investment in government. Andreesen-Hororowitz or A16z, the tech venture capital firm, has been laying the groundwork for this takeover with their “American Dynamism” thesis and investment fund for a few years now. They want to bring the power of America’s tech leadership to Washington to modernize Defense and Education, among other sectors of the US government. What better way to do this than to have Musk destroy the establishment and workforce before tech investment comes in to save the day.It could result in more functional IT systems and management, but at the expense of the rule of law; a weighty trade-off.

This isn’t an exaggeration, it’s the plan.

Read up on it:

https://a16z.com/american-dynamism/

Anonymous February 13, 2025 2:14 PM

@Casey “None of them provide evidence of anything.” – Because we are grounded in an understanding of media marketing from the last decades, which is a fundamental knowledge achieved by reading books and taking university courses and cannot be reduced to some reference.

Clive Robinson February 13, 2025 2:15 PM

@ ALL,

A little reading to do,

First, apparantly US Lawmakers are demanding that UK legislation be not applied,

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2025/02/13/apple-uk-security-back-door-adp/

Whilst I think what the UK is doing is bad, do I think the US should have the right to impose it’s political wishes over UK legal wishes…

Secondly, I posted this link a day or so ago,

https://krebsonsecurity.com/2025/02/teen-on-musks-doge-team-graduated-from-the-com/

Have a read of it Brian Krebs is a generally well respected security researcher and I’ve yet to hear he’s ever made any real mistakes in his reporting.

Thirdly, you should ask the age old question “about a leopard ever changing it’s spots”… Then read this about “Hell-on Rusk” and his wildly inappropriate behaviours,

https://www.kaaltv.com/news/business-news/takeaways-tesla-has-sued-chinese-customers-and-journalists-and-won-almost-every-time/

Note it tells you how he “got rich” on “Government welfare” from China…

You could argue it’s wrong, but I think you will find it’s been sufficiently well researched.

Thus you should ask the 1000billion dollar question,

“Who has purchased Musk’s allegiance?”

Something tells me it’s not the US citizens or even the US legal system he has railed against.

Bauke Jan Douma February 13, 2025 8:08 PM

Two observations, 1¢ each:

a) one shouldn’t drink and type

and thus:

a’) I can see why this article appears here one day before squid-Friday-cum-Valentine’s Day plus the weekend

Bonus observation, Free of charge:

All’s fair in love and war. But don’t wage war and then point fingers when the adversary whose turn it is doesn’t love you.

MrC February 13, 2025 8:24 PM

@Mark Scott

Some of these comments are ASTOUNDINGLY bizarre. Here we are on a SECURITY blog witnessing people who are security professionals, ostensibly, argue that there’s no need for policies, procedures, access controls, security reviews and audits, and instead saying “we like the guy at the top, just do whatever he wants”. What happened here exactly?

I believe that for several years this blog has been on someone’s (or possibly several someones’) “spam propaganda here” list for bot/sock-puppet operations. Whenever certain topics, or certain nations’ interests, come up, these sort of baldly political, propagandistic posts appear. Pretty much the same crap they’re shoveling into Facebook, Twitter, etc., but it sticks out worse here because, as you said, this is supposed to be a security blog, and the sock puppets and bots really aren’t good at blending in with that.

What I’m more curious about is why. This is a dinky blog with a tiny readership. Why is it considered a worthwhile target for propaganda spam? My best guess is that at some point someone identified it as having some NSA types (or their foreign equivalents) among the readership, and decided that the opportunity to spam them with propaganda could not be passed up.

the GCHRD February 13, 2025 8:30 PM

I do seem to remember attempting to draw attention to the weak civics processes in your country and the international implications.

“the US election processes were completely unprepared for such bold and shameless abuses of power.”

The greatest risk now is not domestic, although I fear for your democracy. The playbook for the end of the rational-legal framework is being televised.

There is important work to do. The best minds need to step forward to assist governments with viable majorities to fill the regulatory gaps with all speed.

Steve February 13, 2025 11:25 PM

Plenty of hefty ssumptions in the essay.

No doubt the systems will be examined after DOGE walks through from consoles onsite. Certainly are being checked right now, with no substantiated claims of damage thatI heard.
In fact, there is a reasonable and justifiable concern that valuable incriminating data is being erased while DOGE is absent without access, due to being held in abayance. This is a game with two sides at least, and at least one is already proven seriously dishonest.

We’ll see what is what later.

Meanwhile, I will worry not at all, as no particular DOGE investigators have been challenged in a game of Can You Top This with a single acclaimed security expert, or proven lacking otherwise.

The general fury as well is comprised of many unsubstantiated claims. A good many of the loudest voices having skin in the game that stands a good chance of precipitating personal consequences for them as fraud, and abuse, and theft in the form of money laundering, loom to drag them before one or another authority and answer.

We will see.

Clive Robinson February 14, 2025 12:04 AM

@ Bruce, ALL,

Old Truths remain true.

Back a half century or so ago there was the old adage about computer security of,

“Front Panel Access”

In short it said,

“There can be no security when the attacker has front panel access.”

Back then it was true, but the industry eventually started to change that. Which is why the meme of,

“Beware the (ab)user with wire cutters and the root password!”

Came about.

Here however we now have a situation where (ab)users have,

1, Front panel Access.
2, The root password.

I guess this debacle shows we are overdue both a new “design paradigm” and a new “meme” to go with it.

But also more importantly the more cautious side of the industry needs to come up with new security systems. To prevent the,

“Run fast and break things”

Idiots in their “smash and grab” raids making not just the US and it’s Citizens insecure, but actually putting the whole world at risk.

Why do I say that? Well there is something that is not much talked about. That is in some respects,

“The more you automate the less secure you are.”

It’s the principle that gives rise to the issue of,

“The army of one”

Who does not even have to enter the “field of conflict” to win. Simply by getting the automation to act against what the system was designed to do at some point in the future.

I was once told that,

“Fail safe is fail bad not good”

The example given of this was the “two key launch system” for nuclear missiles, that is,

To prevent a madman initiating an unauthorized launch it required two people to turn two keys at the same time with the keys being far enough apart such that no one person could turn them both at the same time. But somebody –at Rand– pointed out that the premise of the missiles was that missiles would be launched ‘on command’ to protect the nation. Thus how do you ensure that both people turned the key when commanded? The “millitary answer” suggested was apparently give them both guns so that they could ‘force compliance’ in the other… Which of course fails if either person shoots the other… Due to this it was decided to ‘run a test’ to see what would happen if the launch command was given unexpectedly. Let’s just say it was deemed a failure, therefore the people had to be taken out of the loop…

So a communications system was installed that directly controlled the launch. But… It had so many fail safes in it to stop madmen and accidents it was said it probably would not have worked any way.

The point that was being made was,

“To make it safe under all conditions it had to always fail.”

Which no doubt would be a relief to many. However the thought arises,

“What happens if the system works, and there is a madman at the top or key position?”

The only way to make that “safe” is to have the entire system fail 100% of the time by design.

Clearly the “madman at the top or key position” notion has not been built into the design of all the other “automated” parts of the US Government Systems. Which begs the question,

“Is this a good or bad design?”

I’m reasonably sure many peoples opinions on the subject will have changed recently…

Ozzymandues February 14, 2025 3:48 AM

I thought people who voted for trump wanted bigger stronger walls. Useless making physical ones if your digital ones are compromised.

Winter February 14, 2025 4:05 AM

I see comments along the lines that “Trump won the elections and asked Musk to do this”.

But Trump was elected to be President of the US, not Absolute Monarch whose word is Law.

Laws are made by Congress, not by the president, and anyone living in the US, including those employed by the executive, is Bound by the Law.

When Trump says on television that judges are not allowed to apply the law if he doesn’t like it tells us he has forsaken his oath on the American Constitution. That is, he is an Oath Breaker.

Gert-Jan February 14, 2025 6:46 AM

It’s interesting to see how pressure works on people.

I am sure most government officials knew it was wrong to allow access to the DOGE people that didn’t meet the vetting requirements and personnel procedures. Yet they granted access anyway.

I am sure that also, they are well aware of the procedures about handling of sensitive information, yet they stood by while DOGE people used unauthorized hardware and software for it, and even went as far as to drop it in an AI.

Makes me think of the Stanford Prison Experiment.

In security procedures, there’s attention for the things like extortion and other forms to corrupt individual officials. This trumpism created a similar pressure, but from “inside”.

Processes are needed that can minimize this form of duress.

Clive Robinson February 14, 2025 7:33 AM

@ Ron Helwig,

Did you think about what you said?

Your first of,

“Sure, there might be a few things that DOGE is doing incorrectly, but what they are doing is ending the attack on the USA”

Those “few things” will kill any hope of bringing things to a proper legal conclusion.

Because if you,

1, Break the evidence chain of custody.
2, Improperly acquire evidence.

And many more such “few things” then it will get thrown out and importantly “never usable” again against people as it’s now “tainted”.

So I could ask “Why bother with Pardons” for friends when you can just kill the process?”

Because as noted Musk has been on the receiving end of much of what you are complaining about, as have many in the GOP.

I could go on with the rest of your verbiage, but why bother?

I’ll simply say,

Ron Helwig just lost a LOT of credibility with his post.

CalmDown February 14, 2025 8:49 AM

Assume I do not understand how government works.

Would this still be an attack if an inspector general contracted with a consultancy to do this work? If so, please explain why.

Shaun February 14, 2025 9:11 AM

I don’t have a dog in the Democrat vs Republican fight; if one does it, the other does too, but I am very interested in fraud.

Access to Treasury ‘sinews’ and Social Security payments pales, I think, in comparison to the highly classified information Musk and his companies have from Starlink and SpaceX. All his employees that have access to critical Federal/DoD/Energy information at those companies likely have very high security clearances already. It would be naive to think our government is not deeply involved with these high-tech satellite and rocket companies.

Saying all these organizations were ‘compromised’ assumes none of the DOGE people have clearances or approval from legal authority.

Before anyone says ‘well, one of his guys was a 16 year old jerk’ keep in mind that anyone who has filled out an SF86 and been adjudicated knows that the government does not restrict clearances to perfect angels. If they did, only a handful of clearances would ever be granted. Some things in your past can block a clearance, but being a Republican is not one of them.

If DOGE ‘breached OPM’, they likely found very little; all the SF86 files and raw adjudication notes were siphoned away in 2015. No organization took credit and it was widely assumed to have been China.

There has to be much more black and white evidence that DOGE is a ‘security breach’ before the label will stick. Will there be incontrovertible evidence? Who knows? But there doesn’t seem to be any yet.

KeithB February 14, 2025 10:15 AM

Calm Down:
“Assume I do not understand how government works.

Would this still be an attack if an inspector general contracted with a consultancy to do this work? If so, please explain why.”

Very simple, the IG will obey the law including getting the necessary permissions and clearances ahead of time.

JED February 14, 2025 12:33 PM

@Hegg
‘https://www.zetter-zeroday.com/court-documents-shed-new-light-on-doge-access-and-activity-at-treasury-department/

Interesting article.

This part is concerning

Wired didn’t say whether Elez had made any changes, but the same day, Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo, reported that Elez did make changes to source code underlying the operation of the payment systems. Marshall wrote that Elez made the changes directly to a production system, without first testing them in a development environment to ensure they would not disrupt the system, and that the changes were designed to create “new paths to block payments and possibly leave less visibility into what has been blocked.”

ratwithahat February 14, 2025 2:56 PM

@Shaun

“Saying all these organizations were ‘compromised’ assumes none of the DOGE people have clearances or approval from legal authority.”

It doesn’t matter how many people have clearances. If even one person isn’t authorized, the system becomes compromised. It’s very unlikely the DOGE “employee” with connections to cybercriminals was properly cleared.

More worrying is probably the new servers they spun up, as Bruce said. If any of those servers get compromised or attacked, it’s essentially the same as an attack against the US government—except without the government’s protections.

ratwithahat February 14, 2025 3:04 PM

@Hegg RE: article

Feels very reassuring that we can at least trust our bureaucrats to maintain some measure of security, though we don’t really know what’s going on at the other agencies.

Interesting update to the article:
the Treasury Department’s Office of Inspector General announced it would launch an audit of DOGE’s access into Treasury Department systems as well as security controls around its payment systems

however, the audit will likely not be completed until August

Jack of Spades February 14, 2025 9:49 PM

Would we term it a cyber-attack if Larry Culp personally hired an outside consultant to optimize GE Aerospace, and employees of that consultancy were doing the same thing DOGE is now doing to the Federal government? I think that would be a prudent way for GE Aerospace to react, to “defend” against the unknown consultants, but it’s unlikely any business would actually do that given the directive from the CEO.

JJEII February 15, 2025 11:02 AM

@Jack of Spades: Presidents are not CEOs. They do not have the legal authority to re-architect government. They do not have the power of the purse. Please, stop making completely irrelevant and totally ignorant false-comparisons.

No duck agency February 15, 2025 11:05 PM

@Simon

Do you reckon it would be easier than walking up with an NSL on official-looking paperwork that implies you will be sued into oblivion for revealing the existence of said paperwork? Badges ..?

Clive Robinson February 16, 2025 2:55 AM

@ No duck agency, Simon, All,

With regards people just turning up, even if they have,

“Badges”

They should not be allowed in let alone given any kind of “access or authority”.

In much of the world, people have, if they are lucky enough to have survived, learnt to not trust uniforms, badges or even gizmos like radios and guns.

There are tens of millions of people if not more who have become “disappeared” by trusting such totems.

Because even if the totems are genuine not fake, and actually have been correctly issued to the person holding them, who says their reason for the person being where they are, and doing what they are doing, is legal and officially and correctly authorised?

Humans who “trust to easily” get harmed in the millions every day. Trust is a “human failing” that allows us to build societies, but it also allows for some to easily abuse for their own benifit, not societies.

A “life lesson” of the 1960’s and earlier of,

“The Sheriff is a bad man”

That I suspect is being rapidly relearned around the US currently.

As Bob Marley once explained,

“I want to say ‘I shot the police’ but the government would have made a fuss so I said ‘I shot the sheriff’ instead… but it’s the same idea: justice.”

Bank Developer February 16, 2025 11:42 AM

Mainstream news organizations don’t understand it’s a national cyberattack, because there is a missing piece that’s not explained. If “separation of duties” really works as described, then how can DOGE be doing something abnormal? It’s because other employees would normally refuse illegal orders from their boss, given that the deterrent of jail is stronger than the deterrent of getting fired. Since 2024, US presidents cannot be criminally prosecuted for official acts. If DOGE activities are an approved official act and above the law, then “separation of duties” backed by the threat of jail for any employees aiding and abetting crime falls apart.

Critics in these comments also don’t understand that in any mature bank that survived long enough, developers are not allowed to have write access, let alone admin access, to production financial systems. Stealing millions of dollars is economically more rational for a bank developer than doing their job for their salary, so why isn’t there an epidemic of bank developers becoming billionaire fugitives? In real life, bank developers have write access to the development environment, their code gets promoted to a test environment, and only after the testers (who must be different people) validate their code can a system or (a different group of people) push their code to production. This is separation of duties. Bank developers can request to have limited and excessively logged/audited read-access to production systems in special situations for a time period of hours, but it wouldn’t be approved if there is another way to achieve the same task. The development and test environments the bank developers have access to are filled with synthetic data, not real people’s sensitive information.

The DOGE kids having read access to real people’s sensitive information and write access to push code directly to production is a security breach for anyone who knows how our financial infrastructure is normally protected from insider threats.

Clive Robinson February 16, 2025 1:21 PM

@ Bank Developer, ALL,

With regards,

“… having read access to real people’s sensitive information and write access to push code directly to production is a security breach for anyone who knows how our financial infrastructure is normally protected from insider threats.”

The two strongest general security mechanisms we have for any threat are,

1, Separation / Segregation
2, Test / audit

Less immediately obvious are the various balances such as,

3, Security v Efficiency
4, Security v Complexity

And several more. With some in effect being circular like a game of “rock, paper, scissors”. Which has in turn given rise to the old,

“You can have any two, of the three, so chose…”

These apply equally if the system is,

1, Tangible / physical
2, Intangible / informational

However they do have clear differences in the way an attacker needs to behave.

With tangible physical systems all attacks are “local” thus limit the use of resources thus the number of attacks at any one time. Also they are usually “at the time” with any “goods” from the attack requiring other resources to carry them away for profit, which means the attacker has to all to often “traceably” acquire those resources often at considerable expense or risk.

This is all to often not true of intangible informational systems.

Most obvious is the “army of one” effect where an individual can attack tens of thousands of systems effectively at the same time. With the side effect of the attacks are “not local”, “nor do they need to be immediate”, and importantly they are not reliant on the attackers resources.

This is because information system attacks are a set of instructions that use the targets resources.

Think of them like a recipe developed and written by one person that many others make in their kitchens with the ingredients and energy they pay for.

For some reason whilst some –usually “front line” at the sharp end– “get this” all to many in “rear echelon” of the organisations management, administrative, marketing, and supply departments really “Do Not get it”.

Thus why should we expect equivalent “REMFs”[1] in Government to “get it” or “assume risk or responsibility” any more than the top of a corporate hierarchy?

[1] In the military where you have “Ordinary Ratings”, “Non commissioned Officers”, “Junior Officers” and “Staff Officers” where the risks are generally absorbed at the bottom not the top, there is generally a certain degree of caustic appraisal. In part because “Staff Officers” are often so “rear echelon” they stand “hiding” behind politicians or “tucked away” in 5star hotel conference rooms the expression REMF has arisen and is short for “Rear Echelon Mo-Fo” indicating they have little or no contact with reality.

Anony Mouse February 16, 2025 6:11 PM

Wow – I have never seen as much comment censorship on this site as there has been for this article. That alone should tell any thinking person something – censorship is the hallmark of the authoritarian.

Now – this is a private site, and Mr. Schneier is within his rights to censor anyone he wants, but it sure does make him look like a big government stooge when he does so.

Waiting for permission to perform this kind of audit is exactly what those who want to hide fraud would demand. It would give them time to make sure that nothing would be found that they wanted to hide. This government, and this network, and these payments belong to the American people, not to a small coterie of government employees who want to keep the inner workings out of sight.

It’s quite sad that someone who has long been thought of as a “thought leader” would resort to censoring people who have a different point of view than his. It just reinforces the belief that so many have of our so-called “experts.”

Clive Robinson February 17, 2025 3:53 AM

@ Anony Mouse / john orr, ALL

With regards your,

“I have never seen as much comment censorship on this site as there has been for this article. That alone should tell any thinking person something – censorship is the hallmark of the authoritarian.”

You are wrong on both your points.

Our host has a set of rules and guidelines for what is and is not acceptable for posting, and he provides a link to it on every “Friday Squid” page.

With regards your first point, a short while ago this site became subject to what could be described as an attack by a person(s) who just put up abuse in general and directed at other posters. The result was our host had to go from very light moderation to heavy moderation then moderating each comment before letting it be displayed.

The fact you in effect claim to be totally unaware of this is shall we say “curious”.

As for your second point, the removal of abuse, unrelated content, and comment that falls afoul of the posting rules and guidelines is clearly not censorship… therefore your implied argument it’s behaviour if an authoritarian is at best moot.

This is a “personal” web site, and as with a persons home, our host is quite entitled to decide not only who may “cross the threshold” at any time, but what is and is not acceptable behaviour and speech.

Which might leave people wondering about you…

Your further comments strongly suggest you have a significant cognitive bias to your outlook that you are trying to cover. And further you think your views should be preeminent.

From reporting in the MSM and evidence that has been provided for judicial consideration it suggests there are significant issues with some DOGE personnel and their behaviours.

You might think the,

“Run fast and break things”

Attitude is fine. But I suspect very many do not when it comes to functions critical to “National Security” and their individual well being.

But as I’ve noted before, there are certain behaviours claimed DOGE have exhibited that are unacceptable for very good reason. Not least because they break the rules of evidence. Thus they render any information of incorrect or unapproved behaviour found effectively worthless. Which in turn makes the behaviour of DOGE at best reckless if not entirely worthless for what you claim it is, and also open to significant legal challenge.

Thus arguably DOGE behaviour that is being paid for out of taxes and tariffs being payed by ordinary US citizens is it’s self a prime example of at best inappropriate behaviour that falls very firmly under your,

“[T]hese payments belong to the American people, not to a small coterie of government employees who want to keep the inner workings out of sight.”

Clive Robinson February 17, 2025 4:18 AM

DOGE man’s AI at Education

This from Prof Gary Marcus might be of interest. In part it’s about DOGE plans to cull “Education” and replace student advice with AI systems designed by Elon Musk’s workers (who by their reported ages have not –yet– gone through higher education).

“… Musk wants to shove problematic AI, both biased and unreliable, down our throats, immediately, as reported by The New York Times,”

The rest of the piece is also interesting reading,

https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elon-musks-terrifying-vision-for

You are not anonymous February 17, 2025 1:16 PM

I too had a post that was moderated out. In it I began with something to the effect of “since we’re talking about politics, let’s talk about religion too” which was obviously tongue in cheek…

I then related how certain authoritarian attitudes seen in the corporate and political worlds can appear as a God-like complex of not being able to do any wrong (for example: in proclaiming something true that’s clearly false, one might start thinking that makes it actually come true like a God who just speaks and things happen)… and then… I related all this to how it affects security, which is directly what this very article is talking about. The essence of my post was the idea that such authoritarian attitudes in some cases can make security difficult or impossible (because the authoritarian figure cannot be reasoned with, whatever they say must be carried out or you’re fired). This article is an example of this difficulty. My comment here is a possible explanation of why/how this happens.

Admittedly my previous post may have been more over the top in how it was worded than this one? I guess we’ll see if this is moderated out too then I’ll know…

And yes, as in any house or dwelling as a personal physical property, our host has a right to moderate anything and everything he wants on this his very own personal web site as his personal virtual property. The guidelines posted are only a courtesy, not a requirement for him to moderate. This is not a government web site, so this is not government censorship and so comments here are not constitutionally-protected free speech.

Larry February 17, 2025 5:25 PM

Have you done your taxes online yet? I do believe there are some tax preparer companies that will be using your tax information to train AI models. This is what happens when you give them your “consent”.

Dr Morbeus February 18, 2025 10:18 AM

OK, so what’s next?
The USG runs out of money at Midnight on 14 March 2025. It appears there are growing incentives from all sides that a “shutdown” will serve their respective, but contradictory, causes. At that point, the President might declare a national emergency (there are dozens of statutes to choose from).
If DOGE has control of the payment systems at the Treasury Department, the White House essentially controls all money coming in and payments going out of the USG. Then who needs Congress to pass a budget if I control receipts coming and payments going out? Article I of the Constitution, finito. I’ll just decide myself who gets what, when and how.

Anonymous 2 February 19, 2025 6:48 PM

Anonymous : Another related story

Clearly irresponsible Political Appointees with dubious qualifications abound under Musk.

OsInt : Gives Thomas Shedd X account as,

https://twitter.com/thomashedd

Used as a starting point. Information obtained gives other searches, from which it can be seen

He has strong white “Conservative Religious” cognitive leanings/bias.

Further it appears he does not understand AI but knows how to talk the talk by regurgitation. Clearly trips over own feet when doing so.

Conclusion : Highly likely can not in actuality walk the walk.

Other info available such as work record though relevant and disclosed publicly by him can be looked up by those sufficiently interested.

ResearcherZero February 20, 2025 10:52 PM

@Simon

Given DODGE are struggling to understand the older standards and languages of the systems they want to tinker with, they would make the better target, given they are fundamentally weakening the structures that maintain systems security and access restrictions. Looking back at the targeting of the administration in it’s current and previous form, spot and assess, monitoring, influence and exploitation has been well underway for a considerable time. The usual adversaries are well positioned inside and outside of networks.

They have long mapped all infrastructure, buildings and facilities and their people are already well placed to take advantage of any lapses, inexperience or dismissal of warnings.

If they want to save some money there are some dirt cheap Chinese tax products available.

ResearcherZero February 21, 2025 2:16 AM

@Bruce

Assuming that anyone in the government still cares.

I know of at least one person, but sadly I couldn’t say the same about the US. I would imagine most people there have been forced out or taken the retirement package by now.

lurker February 21, 2025 3:37 PM

@Researcher Zero, All

Somehow there are small glimmers of remorse:
oops we shouldn’t have fired those guys.

‘https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjev24184vjo

ResearcherZero February 21, 2025 11:20 PM

@lurker

Responsibility is a difficult thing. Enormous amounts of money cannot always save you. Imagine telling the entire country that you are capable of managing a situation, promising everyone that you are going “fix things”, then discovering you are completely out of your depth and totally incapable of understanding the fry pan that you jumped into after pouring in way too much oil? In hindsight it was also a bad idea to turn the burners all the way up.

A chainsaw is likely to be a liability in such a situation. It might even get you fired.

ResearcherZero February 21, 2025 11:42 PM

@lurker

Musk’s young team of interns were confused by COBOL as it does not have a dating system and hence believed it referenced 150 year old people in a Social Security database. Other overreach and misunderstandings are far more serious and present dangerous security risks.

“The speed at which the mine shaft elevator can move determines how many people can retire from the federal government,” Musk went on to say. “And the elevator breaks down and then.. nobody can retire. Doesn’t that sound crazy?”

“Some of the things that I say will be incorrect.”

‘https://www.cbsnews.com/pittsburgh/news/pennsylvania-iron-mountain-mine-elon-musk-doge-department-government-efficiency/

Clive Robinson February 22, 2025 6:22 AM

@ Lurker, ResearcherZero,

With regards the,

“Oops we shouldn’t have fired those guys.”

The Hell-on Rusk and Trumpeter idea is that the process of Government is “stupidly simple” and that it requires nobody to do it, therefore all those bodies are a waste of resources they could be giving to their GOP friends.

What they have forgotten is the century of party political in fighting and what it has done.

For one parties policies to survive when they are in opposition they have to “dig them in” in various ways. This means there is an at best complex entanglement with other policies such as previous policies of their opponents that their opponents find “dear to their hearts” and won’t give up. At worse a labyrinthine dependence that burrows through the foundations like hidden drains and sewers, such that you can neither pull them out or brick them up as needed structure above will fall, a massive stink will rise, a plague of rats will run forth or some combination if not all.

There are only two ways to deal with this by design,

1, Unpick it carefully like defusing a bomb or boobytrap.
2, Accept it’s a mine field and dig it all out to below ground zero with mines exploding left and right under your feet and from above, then rebuild on the rubble.

Either way is a slow process and will take many turns at administration to show results if at all.

The problem which is now just coming home to the Muck-Larks is even if you do just fly in and take a piece out, what do you do with the collapse in the mean time? That is to keep Government going and functional?

Their plan was grab all the data feed it through current AI and then use that to do a 1980’s SiFi drama style “Make it so” command structure…

The “Make it so” command structure really does not work as many businesses found out when implementing the idea to rescue themselves from the previous idiotic “management flattening” idea. Only the majority of those businesses are not around to tell you this… And those that survived we know either pulled staff back or were left in a fragile state.

So we know it does not work. We also know why it does not work. Because you need the most knowledgeable and best of whom you have to build and put in place working policy.

As previously mentioned such people are not stupid and they can do at least two things,

1, See where things are going and the probable end game.
2, Find equitable alternative if not better use of their time else where.

We joke that,

“Turkeys don’t vote for Xmas”

Well they can see they are only going to be used to abuse themselves and others and mostly want no part of it.

At the very least they’ve seen previous grabs outside of Government Employment where workers benefits and pensions get stolen away from them. So they can work out that if they stay in Gov on lower pay etc for the benefits and pension they will not only have their pay lowered further but the pensions and benefits will get stolen as well…

There is a reason Hell-on Musk uses and abuses the young not even finished education kids. Because he knows they have no concept of unemployment or retirment yet. And importantly don’t understand the concept of the “Pretty Young Thing”(PYT) glass ceiling[1].

So the “Dynamic Duo” Muck-larks jump in and kick out, only to discover things stop or spiral or in other ways head for failure as there is no one there “to keep the plates spinning”. They then find that the skill required to do so is not going to be found in current AI LLM and ML systems.

Part of the reason for this is to have checks on checks to help stop dishonest collusion.

Think of it like the redundancy in double entry book keeping. One person does one half a different person does the other half. The business owner if they are wise ensures maximum segregation between the two people thus they don’t collude. Thus many forms of dishonesty show up with the books not balancing. The price the business owner pays is having two employees to do the job of one.

Much of government works on this principle, but it has an issue over and above the expense…

AI as we currently know it has no idea of “self” and is very easy to bias etc.

Thus replacing self interested humans with non aware AI removes the all important “safety mechanisms”…

Without which we will be lucky if only the edifice comes tumbling down.

[1] PYT glass ceiling is where management have the idea that to be attractive to others thus good for business their work force has to be under thirty something and skinny blond and “photogenic” etc. They care not for knowledge and skills in their workforce only looks (IBM is one such organisation repeatedly accused of this form of ageist policy).

There is a recruitment industry joke / truism,

“A business leader would personally interview a hundred candidates and get rid of the half that looked tired or sad. Then of the maybe fifty remaining cut the half or so that did not look young, then of that remainder the half that did not look pretty. So down to maybe ten he would then chop the half of those that did not sound nice. Then get rid of all but one for not looking lucky, because he did not want unlucky people working for him…”

ResearcherZero February 22, 2025 10:23 PM

@Clive Robinson

After getting rid of the people responsible for preventing the proliferation of fissile materials and maintaining nuclear warheads, why stop there?

You can hardly blame them if they do not spot the three Klingon Birds of Prey off the starboard bow, while moving from the spinning plates to the Holodeck. Even if fired upon, the current lot would try and make a deal with the bridge still smoking from the damage.

I’m not sure ideas such as collusion or lack of responsibility would trouble them. The man regularly blows up expensive cylinders filled with methanol, paid for with other people’s money. Why not leave the system’s security to a 19-year-old known as “Big Balls”?

‘https://krebsonsecurity.com/2025/02/teen-on-musks-doge-team-graduated-from-the-com/

PII, health data and cyber security is in “safe hands” now that DOGE is at CISA & DHS.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/21/politics/doge-musk-edward-coristine-invs/index.html

Musk also deputized his private security, fired the head of Veterans Affairs data security and axed the jobs of traffic safety inspectors who were investigating fatal Tesla crashes.
That may well provide confidence for some that well thought out decisions are being made.

The basic terms at the moment IMHO seem to be, if someone stopped a disaster two weeks ago, but not this week, then they better have a good explanation for what they did this week.

https://www.wired.com/story/doge-usds-purge-veterans-affairs-site-cybersecurity/

ResearcherZero February 22, 2025 10:38 PM

@Clive Robinson

Maybe people we will gain a better understanding of what federal agencies do if it all crashes down around them and ceases to function? It might shift the focus to more important things than the trivial matters that seem to preoccupy the lives of us every day mortals.

I have no idea of last weeks golf scores, or who shot a round under par.

Clive Robinson February 23, 2025 4:06 PM

@ ResearcherZero,

With regards,

“I have no idea of last weeks golf scores, or who shot a round under par.”

Does it matter when the “course” has been queered?

As you know the builder of Golf Courses where they are mostly not wanted, went off for a jolly the past few days and ended up in a sand trap of his own making. Not so much fell in but Put in by his perverse fixation…

Let me tell you a little tale of Over priced scrap metal not worth anything like the alleged $62Billion and the threats to get a country to sign over $500billion of “rare earth metals”… Simply because the golf course maker has got some Orwellian Complex about people in a distant land to his West and how he Trumps them up as his Yellow Peril.

Quite some years ago now I warned readers of this blog about “rare earth metals” and the then main supplier China using them as leverage… I got the usual you are geing paranoid or don’t know what you are talking about from those who probably are now hoping no one goes and looks them up…

For those that do not know the US Mil and HiTec industries are critically dependent on rare earth metals for all sorts of things from screens on mobiles, smart devices and computers through to electro mechanical devices like small high torque motors in drones, military aircraft, missiles, space craft and much else besides.

Now the US thought it was going to Trump China with tariffs and worse, and tried cutting access to the latest generation of semiconductors and equipment to China by threatening European Nations. Firstly it failed to work as desired, but it caused China to announce it was putting export controls on some of the vital minerals required to make the semiconductors the US Mil etc are highly dependent on…

I guess someone has told the Golf Course maker, he can not go to war with China without having secure supplies of “rare earth minerals”.

Hence the golf course maker will sell Europe to Russia just so he can secure the resources so he can have his war with China…

I hope the Europeans tell the golf course maker to go stick his head in the 13th hole… But apparently that is not “the diplomatic way” to behave…

Clive Robinson February 23, 2025 5:34 PM

@ ResearcherZero, Bruce,

With regards,

“Research is already being compromised with a large drop-off in funding approvals.”

As you know I sometimes mention,

“Individual Rights v Social Responsibilities”

And those with a “self entitled view of the world”.

For instance somebody sets up a plant that has “heavy traffic” at the end of some rural road, and complains when their heavy vehicles break up the road, yet they won’t pay for the damage they’ve caused as they think it’s the local population that should pay…

Well it’s not hard to work out that this “money saving / anti-corruption” is nonsense designed to push more money into certain pockets one way or another.

But there is a funny –as in sad– side to it… Take “skilled workers” or the lack there of… That certain employers are always complaining about. The reason they are “rarer than hens teeth” is the training required is not being funded and now is not going to be.

Not just due to cutbacks, but because employers won’t pay, and people have wised up enough to know that if they spend their own money, they won’t get it back, because employers won’t pay sufficient to cover the lost time and interest.

But worse way to many employers now incorrectly think “AI will do it tomorrow”…

Well I’ve news for them, all of those who have tried using “Current AI LLM and ML Systems” have found AI is not delivering even third rate performance, and people are starting to talk about it…

People like AirBnB CEO Brian Chesky are trying to talk it up to shareholders as though it’s just around the corner,

“AI powered coding assistants haven’t led to a ‘fundamental step change in productivity yet'”

But further admits that,

“I’ve talked to a lot of other Tech CEOs, Most of them haven’t seen a material change in engineering productivity.”

https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/genai-in-two-words-success-theater

Which is actually not likely to change, in fact it’s likely to get worse in a downward spiral.

Because the current so-so code copied from StackExchange and similar get put in open code repositories. Where if will get filched to push into AI LLM systems such as CodePilot where the poor code gets pushed out as solutions… But of course with “stochastic” changes by the LLMs. Thus these lesser examples will end up in code repositories as well, that then get filched again for ML use. This changes the statistics in the LLM detrimentally toward the low quality of code. So code gets worse on each round / time and so the downward spiral to the big crunch begins…

But hey don’t say you were not warned 😉

ResearcherZero February 24, 2025 11:21 PM

@Clive Robinson

People should not ignore your warnings about rare earths used as leverage. I have some vague memory of warnings about it passed on to government some time ago last millennium.
If the politicos start pulling out policies dumped in the bottom draw last century, or enacting ‘brain farts’, their mineral fantasies will join the list of previous Star Wars endeavors along with all the other domestic and geopolitical delusions and machinations.

They tried firing experts in Australia and rolling departments into the state department. It did not work very well. Now they are desperately trying to rehire the expertise needed. Our soft power is greatly diminished overseas. Our shipyards and manufacturing moved to the US and the government is attempting to bailout some of our remaining industries. Meanwhile we have others with the same ideas of firing experts and employing lobbyists as Ministers.

When they have no clue what to do and reach for the failed policies that their predecessors at least had the sense to abandon, it should be a wake-up call that they lack competence.
Yet their domestic audience continues to cheer them on anyway like it’s just a bit of fun.

It’s a strange time for any American leader to provide China with an opening by culling US influence abroad. When playing chess, knocking most of your pieces off the board is typically seen as a very bad strategy. With the arming waving, dancing and rousing speeches it is possible that no one noticed, but given recent developments that is highly unlikely.

ResearcherZero February 24, 2025 11:58 PM

@Clive Robinson

In every area in it’s ‘Pivot to Asia’ the US has slipped, while China’s influence has grown. The current US strategy seems confused and inadequate to counter that influence.

‘https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2025/01/09/the-pentagon-finessed-its-pivot-to-asia-can-it-last-during-trump/

“Airlines including Qantas and Air New Zealand modified flight paths between Australia and New Zealand on Friday after China broadcast a message that its People’s Liberation Army Navy would hold live-fire exercises off the New South Wales coast in international waters.”

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/airlines-warned-chinese-navy-holds-live-fire-exercises-australia-rcna193119

“The problem was that the administration did not have a grand strategy which was resilient enough both to deal with the events … and to continue their wish to pivot.”

~ Richard Fontaine (CEO of the Center for a New American Security)

https://thediplomat.com/2024/03/the-lost-decade-of-the-us-pivot-to-asia/

Clive Robinson February 25, 2025 1:19 AM

@ Bruce, ALL,

In my above I say,

“Well I’ve news for them, all of those who have tried using “Current AI LLM and ML Systems” have found AI is not delivering even third rate performance, and people are starting to talk about it…”

It looks like even Microsoft are “back peddling” on AI.

They’ve found they can not even trust their own products.

That is their “red teams” have assessed a number of Microsoft AI systems and discovered “shock-horror” that if something gets into an AI system then it will randomly come out again, or less randomly if prompted appropriately. The result is nothing in there is either secret or secure[1]… No CEO want’s to hear that.

So some might say,

“OK, just be careful what you put in and it will all be OK…”

Only you can not so it will not. Remember Microsoft “Recall” well,

“Even when told it must not, it still does, so in it all goes.”

From screen grabs etc[2] (Yet another reason not to have anything to do with Win11).

And a whole heap of other embarrassments as well (that I could list some of… But what would ge the point?).

Then my eye happened to get caught by a Bloomberg item about Microsoft cancelling at the very least hundreds of megawatts of data center leases, that not long ago were said to be “essential” for their AI plans (with more cancellations etc expected).

Now I know Bloomberg “talks it up” from time to time, but it does sound as if Microsoft is trying to let some of the air out of the bubble. Which begs the obvious question,

“If Microsoft were ‘all in’ on AI as was being talked up by their seniors, why pull back now?”

Is it just a “pacing measure”, a “compleat refocus”, or an “Abandon Ship but leave the rats to drown” move…

Time to keep a very careful eye on Microsoft, and all their things AI, oh and perhaps,

“Get a pole extension to poke at Win 11 to see what jumps off to try to exsanguinate it’s next incautious victim.”

[1] https://www.theregister.com/2025/01/17/microsoft_ai_redteam_infosec_warning/

[2] https://www.tomshardware.com/software/windows/microsoft-recall-screenshots-credit-cards-and-social-security-numbers-even-with-the-sensitive-information-filter-enabled

Clive Robinson February 25, 2025 5:36 AM

@ ResearcherZero,

You and I think there is a certain obviousness about,

“They tried firing experts in Australia and rolling departments into the state department. It did not work very well”

After all you would not expect or employ a group of workers from the local dump to build you a 5,000 squ foot house “to code”.

You become expert in two basic ways,

1, By being apprenticed (ie trade)
2, By studying as “read learning” in a formal setting under an expert (engineering, science).

The “administrative professions” such as law, accountancy, medicine, are usually done as a time served mixture of both.

Clearly axing “experts” will have the same success it did in Cambodia under Pol Pot and was only possible by “external support” from various “Super Powers”…

This has been happening in the West as well but to a slower and on the surface lesser extent. Which might in part account for,

“… the US has slipped, while China’s influence has grown. The current US strategy seems confused and inadequate to counter that influence.”</>

As I’ve noted before “Short Term grabbing vs Long Term Planning” tends to not go very well especially when coupled with “Individual Rights vs Social Responsibilities”…

Hence your view of,

<blockquote>”I’m not sure “Big Balls” and friends have the same experience.”

On reflection I think most who are of independent thought would see your point.

Unless something dramatic happens, there will be at least another 4 years of this. And I’m sure “behind the puppets” there are others actually planning and making calculated changes such that there can be “no return” to a two party or independent political past it won’t be called communism or fascism but it will show their worst traits against freedom of thought and action.

The result will be less and less experts and more and more sliding down the economic development scales into what will be recognisable by others as a feudal system.

ResearcherZero February 27, 2025 4:21 AM

It does look like a feudal system with an awfully large cost attached to it. I’m sure those left behind will not mind sharing it around to help out their more well-heeled brethren.

Gold Card visas on offer (for as little as $5M).

‘https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-gold-card-visa-will-help-pay-down-us-debt-2025-02-26/

The House approved a budget calling for $4.5 trillion in tax cuts and a $4 trillion increase in the U.S. debt limit. The changes will benefit the highest income earners.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-budget-bill-4-5t-tax-cuts-survives-key-hurdle-despite-house-gop-infighting

ResearcherZero February 27, 2025 4:56 AM

@Clive Robinson

Oddly enough, the Kremlin did not hide its hand, and outlined its strategy in a series of published documents. And this is where it gets really weird.

‘https://www.yalejournal.org/publications/how-should-the-us-respond-to-a-russian-cyberattack

Trump, instead of calling Putin’s bluff, decided to throw in his cards and fold.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/02/18/how-vladimir-putin-plans-to-play-donald-trump

Unlike foreign influence, which operates transparently, foreign interference typically relies on clandestine, deceptive, and harmful methods. [begins chopping up floor boards]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jnehr04Y23E

guest February 27, 2025 8:19 PM

trying to do this without registering–i try to create disconnects. without reading all this squabbling and ranting, i’m wondering if any of you have any idea of the actual world changing ramifications of all of this. all of the data they “stole” can reach everyone in this country, directly. and so much of the world. you data goes to a place, that has data, and that to other places, etc., etc. it’s an enormous web that has no end points. data collection was always a bad idea. only supports the capitalists. they all only want more money. saw today, they are reaching out to embassy’s and telling them what information they can share; attempting to squash any attempts at democracy (Africa). everyone doesn’t get hurt by a bullet, but everyone can be hurt by not being able to access food, shelter, because their relationship to the economy is broken–money.

ResearcherZero March 2, 2025 12:09 AM

@guest

I think many people are aware and as some can no longer access health services and other resources, it is having a very real impact on many people’s lives. That impact includes some of the tools and resources that medical researchers and doctors require to do their jobs and provide patients with the assistance and medical care that they need. Currently some of those resources are no longer accessible. This has consequences for real patients.

There are very real measurable increases in mortality due to restrictions on the provision of care (rising deaths due to sepsis as one example) and medical experts have warned that the further planned cuts will not only exacerbate existing problems, but create serious risks for the provision of health care, halt development and wind-back health services.

New medicines in development to prevent infectious diseases have been paused while in the stage of early trials and future development of these important breakthroughs is in doubt.

This is happening to people right now, and has already harmed people with health problems who could not access the healthcare they needed. Even some of the politicians who introduced the legislation to restrict certain medical procedures and access to care are now attempting to amend that same legislation to again allow patients to receive life-saving treatment. Patients are being told in some states to return only when critical.

“Increase in mortality rates for babies born with congenital issues, as well as among groups where death rates already were higher than average.”

‘https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2830298

50 percent increase in life-threatening infections
https://www.propublica.org/article/texas-abortion-ban-sepsis-maternal-mortality-analysis

Clive Robinson March 2, 2025 7:38 PM

@ Bruce, Nicholas Weaver,

I’m not sure what to make of this,

https://alexkolchinski.com/2025/03/03/the-strategic-reserve-exposes-crypto-as-the-scam-it-always-was/

It indicates that US tax dollars are going to get pumped into Crypto Coins…

I know Governments are supposed to be “The Insurer of last resort” but the last investor in pyramid / Ponzi schemes?

The article opens with,

“Today, President Trump announced that the US Government would begin using taxpayer dollars to systematically buy up a variety of cryptocurrencies. Crypto prices shot up on the news.”

Hmm… So a quick look on DuckDuck gives several MSM slapping lipstick on the the old boar… And even the BBC had,

‘https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0jgggd7r4o

And CNN,

‘https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/02/business/trump-cryptocurrency-market-spike/index.html

There is an age old truism that begats the question in this case of,

“Just who is running the institution?”

ResearcherZero March 5, 2025 1:37 AM

@Clive, Bruce, ALL

Russia and China are attempting to recruit federal employees.

‘https://fortune.com/2025/03/02/china-russia-federal-workers-trump-layoffs-national-security-intelligence/

Secret information on America’s most sensitive departments and networks may now be at risk.

‘https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fired-us-government-workers-with-top-security-clearances-were-not-given-exit-2025-03-04/

Winter March 5, 2025 8:53 AM

@ResearcherZero

Russia and China are attempting to recruit federal employees.

Hanlon’s Razor
Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity

I can only say that the current crop of top administration politicians has shown ample amounts of stupidity or foolishness as defined in [1][2].

But maybe we should better see the current administration as a sequel to Barbara Tuchman’s The March of Folly [2] where the USA tops all the other examples from her book in a single apotheosis.

I do think this administration falls squarely inside her definition of folly:

To qualify as folly, a policy must be recognized as counterproductive by contemporaries, have a feasible alternative, and be the product of a group, not just an individual

A phenomenon noticeable throughout history regardless of place or period is the pursuit by governments of policies contrary to their own interests

And finally, the corner stone of foolishness is present in large amounts

Wooden-headedness, the source of self-deception, is a factor that plays a remarkably large role in government

The final conclusion is:

Folly is a Product of Power and a Refusal to Learn from Experience

Which can be rephrased as:

A fool is convinced they do not have to think anymore as they already have all the answers

And in government, fools have the power to enforce their answers.

[1] See: “The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity” by Carlo M. Cipolla.
‘https://web.archive.org/web/20130216132858/http://www.cantrip.org/stupidity.html

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_March_of_Folly

Clive Robinson March 5, 2025 2:31 PM

@ Winter,

With regards Barbara Tuchman’s definition of folly including,

“… and be the product of a group, not just an individual”

This,

“Group-think sink to the bottom.”

Is much much older, and has in times past given us a myriad of jokes about committee definitions.

Of which I’m sure most readers here have heard one or two of in the past.

One such (that can be said at work 😉

“A committee is a group of people that meet around a table, where the legs of the table have more sense than the people.”

(Similar but longer is the one involving a dead camel…)

Clive Robinson March 5, 2025 11:11 PM

@ ResearcherZero,

With regards,

“Russia and China are attempting to recruit federal employees.”

The obvious response is,

“That’s obviously going to happen.”

But more seriously we know China has “entities” in just about every country where there are ethnic chinese people who have relatives in the Chinese Mainland.

Supposedly they are there to provide,

“guidance on China’s bureaucracy”

And how to “negotiate it”.

In reality they keep an eye on these ethnic chinese and create extensive biographies on them not just from public data but data brokers and interviews etc. Part of this is in effect running “credit checks” in a way that does not currently effect the persons “Credit Score”.

We know that in times past Russia did similar and some of those involved got rounded up and kicked out of the US.

But other countries do the same on anyone that is potentially of interest.

Thus the simple fact is that not only are many if not all of these Federal Employees known to various hostile nations, they have already been in effect preselected by their life styles etc.

Worse in some cases it’s known,

“What buttons to press”

Via relatives and relationships both close and in more general terms such as work and social aquaintaces etc.

The theory behind it has been called,

“Water and ice”

You might have noticed that brick work sometimes suffers “spalling” as water permeates through the “weather-face” of the brick and then expands flaking the protective layer off…

Well it’s the same idea but with humans instead of bricks and the weather-face being the security layer.

Thus the level of security spalling the human suffers from the more likely they are to respond via the various MICE failings.

Take “Ego”, many implicitly assume it’s more or less a constant “annoying” part of someone’s personality. Where as, it’s actually more subtle than that because ego is one of the “defence mechanisms” in normal people (it’s part of the “fight mechanism” where creatures “puff/big up” and thus behind “trash talk” etc).

Thus being fired through “no fault of your own” causes the ego based defence mechanism to kick in. Which in moderation actually helps you “front up” and “sell yourself”, so better increases your ability to find new employment etc.

But others know how to exploit it, thus get an individual into a position where they can be further exploited and thus “in the trap”.

It’s one of the “job exit debrief” psychological talk points which is oft reinforced by getting people to sign “scary forms”.

Winter March 6, 2025 5:49 AM

@Clive

“… and be the product of a group, not just an individual”

Individuals can be fools too. Many people often are (see essay by Carlo M. Cipolla). However, lone fools are easily separated from their money/power as the proverb goes.

Only when follies are shared by many (leading) people are they able to send whole nations into the abyss, as Barbara Tuchman so nicely illustrated (Jared Diamond too had some examples in “Collapse”). [1]

As for the dismissal of committees, that is rather silly. A committee is a tool to arrive at consensus. It is obvious that this is unremarkable when the outcome is a real consensus. The world actually runs on the outcomes of such committees. What is remembered is when there is no easy consensus and the outcome is a disaster. [2]

[1] Be aware that neither Tuchman’s nor Diamond’s recounts were entirely historically correct.

[2] Note that camels are not a bad design. They are excellent transport animals that can be deployed in environments where horses are sub-sub-optimal.
‘https://horseracingsense.com/camel-vs-horse-faster-stronger/

Clive Robinson March 6, 2025 2:27 PM

@ Winter,

With regards,

“Note that camels are not a bad design.”

The joke I was thinking about was as I said about “dead camels” not live ones.

If I told it here I’d probably get banned 😉

ResearcherZero March 12, 2025 12:59 AM

@Clive Robinson, Winter

In Australia China and Russia recruit white middle-class Australians. No one would suspect they are going to be approached at work by a foreign spy, not even outside of work. Again preferably from government departments. Prosecutorial services is attractive as it prevents the indictment of recruited assets for covert activities.

In a tight spot the offences can be limited to embezzlement or any other crime that creates the impression of anything but espionage. Often assets are not even aware they are working for a foreign agent, they simply believe they are in with a bent cop or some other crook who can provide them with a leg-up.

Once the prosecutors are suitably compromised with repeated cash payments the actual undeclared agents can get to work recruiting additional assets and compromising targets.
A typical target is those looking for a political career with a flagrant disregard for community standards, low in empathy and contempt for both the law and personal space. Any other low-life who proves suitable in engaging in corrupt activity is also very useful.

In today’s climate the options and opportunities may be much more versatile. Plenty of marks either alone or in a group – waiting to get worked, or very much wanting to. Others may be hard-up due to the cost of living and very easily stood-over and blackmailed. Once they take the ‘assistance’ they are under the influence and trapped by fear of exposure.

Harder to detect approaches and infiltration amongst all this DOGE chaos…

Positions not categorized as “critical” or “essential” could be purged. There are many other employees though who are still vitally important to a useful department.

Removing these other positions because outsiders ‘believe’ they are not important for “protecting human life” would neuter many agencies. Many experts and researchers could be let go. Analysts, linguists and many other positions vital to the actual work that agencies do – and the staff who support them. It is not the tech team that makes an office function. There are many positions that are vital to the information flow, procedures and policies required for effective, adequate service, training and education.

‘https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-has-wanted-the-government-shut-down/

There is a fire. You sacked the office clerks. The firetruck no longer moves. There are no spare parts to repair the firetruck. No was one left to manage inventory. Oops. 🙁

It will take weeks for a new distributor to arrive from interstate. Remove the solenoid or the tail-shaft from your vehicle. Place the offending objects discretely in a dumpster.
Finally, remove the alternator and toss it underneath the nearest hydrangea or geranium. Any cameras and surveillance media should be erased then deposited into the fire.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2025/03/11/education-department-employees-layoffs-trump/

“Thank you for your assistance in clearing our classified safes and personnel documents”

“Shred as many documents first, and reserve the burn bags for when the shredder becomes unavailable or needs a break”

“The only labeling required on the burn bags are the words ‘SECRET’ and ‘USAID/(B/IO)’ in dark sharpie, if possible”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HfpGKO7KBv4

ResearcherZero March 12, 2025 1:22 AM

@Clive Robinson, Winter

Politicians are security illiterate. The only time they bother to attend a briefing is if a story gets widespread media coverage – for all other briefings they are a no-show. The more they talk about national security and public safety, the less they know or care about it.

The foreign office and home office are typically full of mugs, only looking for a consulting position with an arms manufacturer, lobby group or logistics firm. Their interest extends as far as how large a pay check they can receive when they exit. A good time to leave is in advance of the next conflict in order to hit procurement bonuses.

Where to get a job when you leave politics:

‘https://www.smh.com.au/traveller/inspiration/australian-war-memorial-a-place-to-remember-immense-sacrifice-20150406-1mf7av.html

The political bulldozers moved in and knocked down Anzac Hall.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-10/australia-war-memorial-weapons-manufacturer-funding-four-corners/105015850

Now it is a $580 million arms manufacturers’ wet dream, rife with conflicts of interest.
https://michaelwest.com.au/australian-war-memorial-from-keeper-of-the-flame-to-hider-of-shame/

Clive Robinson March 12, 2025 2:20 PM

@ ResearcherZero, Winter,

I’ve made comment over the years about “short term v long term” behaviour and why the former is not exactly a good idea.

Well it looks like I’m now nolonger alone on this,

‘https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyS_WRNgovc

‘https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1yLhAIrq-fQ

Note these have appeared in just the past few hours, so like the tasting of “hot cakes” a certain caution should be advised.

ResearcherZero March 19, 2025 8:30 AM

@Clive Robinson

Long term planning has been dying for some time thanks to short shortsightedness of pineapples who are obsessed ad nauseam with polls, mid-terms and election spin cycles, TV appearances, net worth, post pineapple employment plans…

@CalmDown

The following article by Wired may shed some light on your question. There are also further ramifications which I thought might be helpful to include. Legal ramifications.

‘https://www.wired.com/story/federal-auditors-doge-elon-musk/

Trump turns on the legal sector, that he himself fondly exploited.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/19/trump-major-law-firm-sanctions-questions-00236446

Trump’s orders banning law firms from federal buildings raise constitutional concerns.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-targets-law-firm-paul-weiss-restricting-government/story?id=119828394

Courthouses for sale, among the maneuvers which may impede functioning of legal system.
https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/trump-job-cuts-could-affect-us-court-operations-judiciary-warns-2025-03-18/

“Brilliant isn’t it,” said the boy genius. (Doctor Who reference for light humor)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8vSHeTH6POE

Clive Robinson March 19, 2025 10:08 AM

@ ResearcherZero,

As you are aware the meaning of words used as slang, cant, or argot, can change meaning rapidly…

I was used to the notion that a pineapple was used as a term for a hand-grenade or mine that was set up as a mine or booby trap to blow up in your face.

Or as something of no use such as,

“As much use as a pineapple in a snow storm” or even “As much use as pineapple spectacles” and of course the “rough end of a pineapple” being inserted first…

But in more recent times with the second coming of the shetland pony it apparently now has a newer meaning,

“In conclusion, pineapples are individuals who are promiscuous, unfaithful, and manipulative. They are skilled at using their looks and charisma to get what they want, and they are often involved in risky and destructive behaviour. The term pineapple is a derogatory insult that is used to shame and degrade individuals who exhibit these traits. While it may be tempting to engage with pineapples, it is important to remember that their charm is deceptive and that they are not capable of forming genuine connections or relationships.”

Apparently it’s replaced “Media whore” and similar as well…

You would have thought after what has and is happening to Sidney Powell, Jenna Ellis, Rudy Giuliani, Michael Cohen, Lin Wood, Kenneth Chesebro, and more than a dozen other “lawyers” disbarred, practice licences suspended or in other ways sanctioned,

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-lawyers-disbarred-law-licenses-suspended-chesebro-giuliani-cohen-1978351

You would have thought people would have wised up, this time around. But apparently not… some turds apparently try to develop a polish all of their own,

https://apnews.com/article/ed-martin-us-attorney-election-fraud-trump-2cd97f08064705e3c0110b72d30d3578

Which brings new meaning to the song phrase,

“Only in America”.

ResearcherZero March 30, 2025 2:58 AM

@Clive Robinson, ALL

I did hope that pineapple would come off as hand grenade, in the modern sense that these people are destructive in their behaviour. If they were on an endeavor to destroy systems security, secure design, integrity, research and development, and leak what ever data and secrets held within the multiple U.S. departments and agencies to any overseas adversary, or anyone else who wants it, then I doubt they could intentionally do a better job of it.

Unless, through their failings it enabled a multi-pronged OPM styled hacking campaign.

But it just keeps on getting worse. So yes indeed, words do fail me. Apparently the “plan” is to attempt to try and rebuild everything worse in a rush – and with terrible security.

The House Commitee on Oversight will be holding it’s hearing into Salt Typhoon on April the 2nd, so this could just be the setup for God’s final joke. 😉

‘https://www.wired.com/story/doge-rebuild-social-security-administration-cobol-benefits/

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