Schneier on Security

Richard Steven Hack • October 21, 2007 5:18 PM

Of course, this is a stupid idea.

The fact of the matter is that the terrorist groups aren’t really interested in blowing up US planes – or they’d be doing it.

It’s that simple.

There is NO WAY to stop a terrorist from conducting his mission IF he has any competence at all. Fortunately many, perhaps most, terrorists don’t. But clearly the level of security provided by the TSA is not sufficient to stop the ones that do exist who have some competence.

So the fact that planes aren’t blowing up simply means that that tactic is not first up in the terrorist mind these days and has nothing to do with TSA procedures – all of which could be circumvented with some planning, some imagination and some nerve – all of which a FEW terrorists have.

Read Dick Marcinko’s book about how his Red Cell SEAL Team basically penetrated every US military and political security there is, including US Navy nuclear weapons lockers, Air Force One, Camp David, US Naval Intelligence HQ, and the Groton nuclear sub base. About the only place they didn’t try to get in was the White House – or at least, they never admitted that. Had they tried, there is little doubt they would have succeeded, however. They got several men with several pounds of C-4 within twenty yards of the President’s cottage at Camp David. They put IEDs on nuclear subs at Groton.

Of course, his SEAL Team were both highly trained and highly motivated (mostly by the fun of shoving it in the face of the brass as by desiring to secure America). But their success rate was almost one hundred percent. They established that military security – let alone corporate security – is an oxymoron.

Which is why you wonder why we worry about Iranian nukes that don’t exist when Israel has 100-200 of their own and are surrounded by terrorists who would love to have one.

If terrorists want to start blowing up US airplanes, they will do so. And if they get caught in line trying to do so, they will blow up the people in line. Do you want to try flying after about a dozen lines are blown up – or even a few planes – successfully?

They don’t even have to get on the plane or in line. They can shut down the US airline industry any time they want. They can do it either by blowing themselves up anywhere in crowded airports, or simply driving by the flight line from a mile away and shooting down an airliner with a missile – as TWA Flight 800 was almost certainly downed in retaliation for the Iranian Vincennes incident – or just launching a couple mortar shells at a plane as it taxies.

Do such things a dozen times and see happens to airline flying in this country.

They simply are concentrating on other methods and have limited resources to do the kinds of attacks I’ve outlined. But they could do it. That and the fact that Muslims in this country stand out like sore thumbs, making it easier for law enforcement and counterintelligence to track them.

The fact is that the so-called “terrorist threat” is far more limited than the government would have you believe. They are far fewer in number, have limited ability to get into the country in numbers with an organization and a plan and resources to carry out the plan, and even fewer have the intent. They are mostly interested these days in overthrowing Pakistan, Iraq, and Afghanistan. They operate more easily in those societies because they are Muslim societies. Operating in the US is more difficult and in some sense “scary” for them.

Almost no terrorist groups have expended any major effort to get into the US, organize major cells, and conduct high profile operations. That was why 9/11 stood out – and hasn’t been repeated in years.

And this is not the way to conduct effective terrorism. Terrorism is only effective if it is chronic. Executing an attack once every few years is utterly pointless, unless the attack is so spectacular as to “change everything” – i.e., a nuclear attack that kills scores or hundreds of thousands. The 3,000 killed on 9/11 and the method used was probably the most spectacular and effective terrorist attack ever done – and it’s highly unlikely to be repeated more frequently than once a decade.

And that’s a waste of time, for the most part.

Which is probably why it hasn’t been repeated – despite its success in mobilizing the US to screw itself royally in Iraq and Afghanistan.

It’s not that TSA procedures or other US security is so hard to beat. It’s all the other factors that are really unrelated to security that is keeping the US relatively secure.

But if those factors ever break down – meaning if the US attacks Iran, and Iran decides to activate some more professional operatives against the US – you will see effective terrorism here. And the US government will not be able to stop it – because those pros will have the resources to get in and out of the country without being seen at Customs checkpoints, will have secure safe houses here that will not be constantly watched by FBI agents, will have explosives and weapons provided from caches already in place or smuggled in by the same routes used by drug smugglers, will have soft targets already selected and planned for, and will merely have to carry out the pre-planned mission.

They may even have prepared suicide bombers that are in place or can be smuggled in – while the real operatives stay behind. This is how the original Towers bombing went. The pros came in, set up the bomb and the plan, got some patsies to do the job while they flew home undetected.

Read any terrorist fiction book or some of the better terrorist movies. If the authors can think of reasonably tight plots, professional terrorist operatives can as well. The number of soft, effective targets in the US is almost limitless.

All you need is a handful of guys willing to drive a car bomb into Times Square at rush hour, or carry a backpack on to the subway at rush hour, or even just a couple of hand grenades in their pockets. Do this with ten guys over two or three days in three or four major cities. The US will be in a panic within 24 hours, with National Guard troops (if there are any still outside of Iraq) on every street corner (which will be useless).

Bottom line: You cannot stop terrorism without 1) killing or capturing all the terrorists – which is not feasible unless they are a small, localized group; or 2) changing your policies so the terrorists do not want to attack you as opposed to attacking someone else.