Consequences of a Nuclear Explosion in an American City
This paper, from February’s International Journal of Health Geographics, (abstract here), analyzes the consequences of a nuclear attack on several American cities and points out that burn unit capacity nationwide is far too small to accommodate the victims. It says just training people to flee crosswind could greatly reduce deaths from fallout.
Results
The effects of 20 kiloton and 550 kiloton nuclear detonations on high priority target cities are presented for New York City, Chicago, Washington D.C. and Atlanta. Thermal, blast and radiation effects are described, and affected populations are calculated using 2000 block level census data. Weapons of 100 Kts and up are primarily incendiary or radiation weapons, able to cause burns and start fires at distances greater than they can significantly damage buildings, and to poison populations through radiation injuries well downwind in the case of surface detonations. With weapons below 100 Kts, blast effects tend to be stronger than primary thermal effects from surface bursts. From the point of view of medical casualty treatment and administrative response, there is an ominous pattern where these fatalities and casualties geographically fall in relation to the location of hospital and administrative facilities. It is demonstrated that a staggering number of the main hospitals, trauma centers, and other medical assets are likely to be in the fatality plume, rendering them essentially inoperable in a crisis.
Conclusion
Among the consequences of this outcome would be the probable loss of command-and-control, mass casualties that will have to be treated in an unorganized response by hospitals on the periphery, as well as other expected chaotic outcomes from inadequate administration in a crisis. Vigorous, creative, and accelerated training and coordination among the federal agencies tasked for WMD response, military resources, academic institutions, and local responders will be critical for large-scale WMD events involving mass casualties.
I’ve long said that emergency response is something we should be spending money on. This kind of analysis is both interesting and helpful.
A commentary.
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Andrew • April 6, 2007 11:10 AM
We do several things in California that subtly have this scenario in mind:
1) All security guards get four hours of counter-terror & Weapons of Mass Destruction training, in which the advice to flee crosswind is emphasized more than once. Police get more both in academy and in-service training. Firefighters and EMS workers get even more than that, with hazmat and radiation training and formal discussion of nuclear weapons effects.
2) All First Responders without exception, and many others, get formal training in triage (Simple Triage and Rapid Transport) in which patients who require immediate advanced medical attention to survive are sorted from lesser casualties by the mechanism of R-P-M (Respiration, Perfusion, Mental Status) estimated by 10-15 second evaluations per casualty. If there are no hospitals left, inference is obvious.
3) California fire departments take the FEMA CERT (Community Emergency Response Team) concept dead seriously, and frequently conduct community CERT trainings in which disaster plans are emphasized. We expect that even with fire stations destroyed and agencies out of service, trained people are going to be coming out of the woodwork.
4) Some businesses and most agencies maintain their own disaster caches, sometimes in oddly remote areas.
5) The county and state OES (Office of Emergency Services) focus their efforts on two things: the obvious priority of staying alive, and just as important, maintaining communication with each other, with higher, and with the news media. Towards that end we have a lot of ham radio operators, ARES/RACES etc. who volunteer.
6) California Highway Patrol has some interesting training, including rotation through the MOUT simulator at Camp Pendleton. Freeway reversal in coordination with CalTrans is in their game plan. I’m sure they have a few other tricks up their sleeve. Note their profusion of paramedic air units scattered across the state.
7) Everyone gets trained in ICS (Incident Command System) which is similar to its Federal equivalent SEMS.
8) The California National Guard and its backup the California State Military Reserve recognize that they may go into play with or without Federal help and plan accordingly. CNG maintains an excellent hazmat / WoMD training facility.
9) Last but not least, a nice huge massive wildfire is good low-scale practice for a nuclear firestorm. 🙂
Seriously, any response to a nuclear strike is going to be massively disorganized and chaotic. The choice is not between this and an organized response. The choice is between this and NO RESPONSE. Katrina is a lesson that California is taking seriously. The Feds aren’t coming.