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Schneier on SecurityA blog covering security and security technology. « Perpetual Doghouse: Meganet | Main | Me on Identity Theft » June 15, 2007Second Movie-Plot Threat Contest WinnerOn April 1, I announced the Second Annual Movie-Plot Threat Contest: Your goal: invent a terrorist plot to hijack or blow up an airplane with a commonly carried item as a key component. The component should be so critical to the plot that the TSA will have no choice but to ban the item once the plot is uncovered. I want to see a plot horrific and ridiculous, but just plausible enough to take seriously. On June 5, I posted three semi-finalists out of the 334 comments:
Well, we have a winner. I can't divulge the exact formula -- because you'll all hack the system next year -- but it was a combination of my opinion, popular acclaim in blog comments, and the opinion of Tom Grant (the previous year's winner). I present to you: Butterflies and Beverages, posted by Ron: It must have been a pretty meadow, Wilkes thought, just a day before. He tried to picture how it looked then: without the long, wide wound in the earth, without the charred and broken fuselage of the jet that gouged it out, before the rolling ground was strewn with papers and cushions and random bits of plastic and fabric and all the things inside the plane that lay like the confetti from a brief, fiery parade. Ron gets signed copies of my books, a $50 Amazon gift certificate contributed by a reader, and -- if I can find one -- an interview with a real-live movie director. (Does anyone know one?) We hope that one of his prizes isn't a visit by the FBI. EDITED TO ADD (6/27): There's an article on Slate about the contest. Posted on June 15, 2007 at 6:43 AM • 58 Comments To receive these entries once a month by e-mail, sign up for the Crypto-Gram Newsletter. Steve • June 15, 2007 7:05 AM If water is banned, what about blood? Is there enough moisture/water in blood to set off the explosion too? Otherwise, just drink a liter of water before getting onto the flight, and bring it back up when needed. jon • June 15, 2007 7:36 AM Thanks a lot. We'll all be sure to thank you every time we have to drain a Big Gulp before that long flight. Oh, but wait, won't fluid be able to process out during the flight? Well, there's gotta be a solution for that too. I'm thinkin' modified chastity belts.... Natrium • June 15, 2007 7:42 AM All passengers must travel in tightly-fitting plastic bags to separate chemicals from their dangerous bodily fluids. If the TSA would instead invent and develop teleportation to the point where it has a near monopoly there wouldn't be any aircraft to attack. Anyway wouldn't a better prize be an interview with a director's daughter (Sofia Coppola)? phil • June 15, 2007 7:45 AM >>Otherwise, just drink a liter of water before getting onto the flight, and bring it back up when needed. Bring it back up? What bring it back up? A quick visit to the restroom with a paper cup will produce a fair amount of slightly yellow water. We're going to have to ban urine. vwm • June 15, 2007 7:52 AM @steve: Blood will do, but it might draw some unwelcome attention when you extract the amount needed. BTW, terrorists should be careful when touching there special eyeglass frames. And they should avoid sweating at all costs ;-) Dave Page • June 15, 2007 7:58 AM "I can't divulge the exact formula -- because you'll all hack the system next year" Security through obscurity? sauergeek • June 15, 2007 8:05 AM Not plausible. I've seen a half-pound of reagent-quality sodium dropped in a river. The sodium burned violently; the chunk shattered; the expanding gas launched broken bits out of the river, which landed back in the water and kept on burning. Nothing, however, with enough force to make me believe it would cause a full-on explosion. Further, sodium oxidizes in air; sodium metal fashioned into any innocuous item and exposed to air (as any innocuous metal item I can think of would be) would have reacted away a great deal of its mass in the air between packing and getting on a plane. There's a reason sodium is normally stored in kerosene or some other liquid it won't react with. Dropping oxidized sodium into water is a far less interesting reaction. Greg • June 15, 2007 8:21 AM @sauergeek You might want to check the comments on the semifinalist page were this was betten to death. But then again we have been show over and over again that you don't need a fesable plot to get a ban on liquids or set off all sorts of hysteria. Many of the guys who did the "liquids explosives" plots didn't even have pastports! Tim • June 15, 2007 8:24 AM @sauergeek: It doesn't have to be plausible; it just needs to sound vaguely plausible. We've still got the situation a year on where mothers are being threatened with arrest for bringing a sippy cup for their toddlers onto a plane because of a far less plausible plan. Pfooti • June 15, 2007 8:34 AM As it happens, aluminum is reactive enough to evolve hydrogen gas when placed in water. It doesn't do it normally, because it forms a skin of aluminum oxide, which isn't reactive. This can be prevented by alloying the aluminum with gallium. Researchers are looking into using this to generate hydrogen gas to power automobiles. So, although sodium is somewhat hard to transport innocuously (since it's pretty soft you couldn't really make it into anything, although I guess you could hide it inside other metal objects), the gallium/aluminum alloy would work just fine. Make some quarters out of the metal, doesn't have to work in a soda machine, just look good enough to pass through the screener thing in a little basket. Bruce Schneier • June 15, 2007 9:18 AM "Hawley was a panelist? Do tell..." He was going to be. Sasdly, though, he didn't get me his vote in time. (I updated the blog post.) May I suggest Phil Alden Robinson, the director of Sum of All Fears? Or David R. Ellis from Snakes on a Plane (hey, if there's anything you can't take on board ...) I don't know either of them though, sorry. Juice • June 15, 2007 9:53 AM @sauergeek : I thought about this the first time it was presented: 1. Encase small sodium objects in layer of water soluble substance, like sugar. A thin layer of rock-candy would dissolve in about an hour, yet look like just a shiny varnich on the object. Fred P • June 15, 2007 10:01 AM I'm surprised that someone didn't just re-package Robert A. Heinlein's Solution Unsatisfactory http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... , a short story written in 1940. The reaction to the plot there had a nastier effect to air travel than merely banning water on airplanes. Bolek • June 15, 2007 10:15 AM Interesting video related to the topic of alkali metals (from Brainiac show): http://youtube.com/watch?v=m55kgyApYrY John Ridley • June 15, 2007 11:12 AM I know this doesn't have to be plausible, but this is just silly. Sodium is way too soft to make into anything; it would be like making things out of wax. It oxidizes in the air very quickly and that slows its reaction eventually. And finally, it burns and pops in water, it doesn't explode with enough force to damage a plane. You want reactive with water, go with rubidium or cesium. However, they're so reactive they need to be kept in an argon atmosphere; they'll start to react on contact with air. Stella • June 15, 2007 11:16 AM Entomology's misspelled, making it closer than acceptable to etymology, the study of word origins rather than bugs -- cute if you do it in purpose, clumsy as an accident. CleverShark • June 15, 2007 11:58 AM Actually it would be more effective to just generate panic by simulating a plot -- even an impossible one -- and leaking the details as well as some video or photo evidence to the press. I will like the idea of a terrorist plot that involves some clothes getting dipped into a substance which, when combined with another substance (in which other clothes have been dipped) cause either a release of toxic gas or an explosion. If this can be made believeable enough -- and there's a good deal of evidence that the only thing required to achieve this is to have so-called "experts" (I'm not an expert, but I play one on TV-type) explain the whole thing with language that's highly scientific and therefore confusing -- one might succeed in causing the TSA to demand that people fly naked, or covered in only TSA-approved plastic tarps. It's not impossible. Look at all the brouhaha following the so-called "liquid explosives" plot. Can you think of an airline that would let a passenger stay in a locked airplane toilet for the several hours it would take him to actually put his "bomb" together? Chris Wuestefeld • June 15, 2007 12:05 PM > A quick visit to the restroom with a What restroom? Since water was banned, the restrooms have been removed to make room for more seats. After all, we couldn't allow people to flush or use a sink! But I have to say that I'm not a fan of this scenario. The thing is, anything more than a trivial amount of any liquid (including water) is already banned. What does this really change? Kevin McGrath • June 15, 2007 1:49 PM @jon "Oh, but wait, won't fluid be able to process out during the flight? Well, there's gotta be a solution for that too. I'm thinkin' modified chastity belts...." Frank Herbert's "Dune" has already provided a solution so it will be stillsuits all round! ;-) Bill P • June 15, 2007 2:18 PM Got it! From now on, you have to arrive at the airport 8 hours before flight time. Everyone is forced to take meds which will evacuate their system. One hour before flight time, everyone strips, put on diapers and issued jump suits. No personal items are allowed to be carried on. Half an hour before flight time, everyone gets a shot to knock them out. Everyone is strapped into "stand up seating" (sorry, no first class). The airline can pack more people into a flight. No need for flight attendents or service. Since you won't be allowed luggage, you would only need to worry about where you will wake up. We could call it Rendition Air. A subsidiary of CIA, Inc. Good story, Ron! aeschylus • June 15, 2007 3:09 PM Stella> Entomology's misspelled, making it closer than acceptable to etymology Indeed. And while we're noting that, let's consider that, etymologically, "insect" and "entom-" in fact mean the same thing, in Latin and Greek, respectively. It is thus easy to remember how to spell "entomology", as long as one is vaguely cognizant of all the words that use -tom- in the sense of "cut" or "divide". Also "Wilkes's" is misspelled. shimmershade • June 15, 2007 4:32 PM The spelling police have arrived. Perhaps they could be put to use comparing no-fly list names to passenger list names. Let such a task not be entrusted to mere information technology. techmage • June 16, 2007 12:40 AM There is one small problem with sodium metal. it can be used in the on board toilet facilities in much the same way. drop a cubic gram of sodium metal into the toilet and watch out. one problem with sodium, it must be kept in an oxidation free containment (such as mineral oil or kerosene) as it tends to oxidize rapidly in the presence of oxygen. Also, sodium cannot be made into "wearbale" onjects without precautions. it will tend to react with mosture in the human skin (causing caustic burns and possibly other injuries). so, in as much as this scenario seems plausible, it is not. sodium is too unstable to handle by itself and it would be painfully obvious to anyone looking that it would be suspicious just carrying it. a good demonstration of sodium reactions can be done in a local high school science lab. Gex • June 16, 2007 4:11 AM Ugh. I *do not* want the airline staff to be responsible for inserting the foley that will whisk away any liquids I might produce during the flight. Guess I'll be walking! Rich Bryant • June 16, 2007 5:22 AM Sodium (or better, potassium) could encased in something completely harmless for the trip, though. A paperweight containing a sodium "scene" with a light oil solution and probably bits of calcium cabonite to make a snowstorm would work quite well. In case of desire for emergency, break glass. Jon Sowden • June 16, 2007 1:23 PM @Rich Oh well played sir! Revtkatt • June 16, 2007 8:32 PM My contribution, albeit late or early. Ban pets.
"Sorry to hear that, m'am. I'm sure he and you will be fine." "Oh yes, I think we will. He had a bit of surgery recently, but he's She boarded the plane, although she walked through the scanner with As the plane rose, the automatic pressurization kicked in, keeping the The dog, also snoring, also did not notice the change in It took a while for the investigators to understand how a dog could be Folks with large scars (as seen on the backscatter machines) .......... Narcs nab drug-smuggling puppies The DEA says these unlikely drug smugglers were rescued during a 2005 (CNN) -- A two-year investigation into a Colombian heroin ring netted Ten wayward pups were found during a raid on a Colombian farm in 2005,
Matt • June 17, 2007 6:55 AM @techmage A cubic gram? What direction is that? Fred • June 18, 2007 9:16 AM Rich Bryant suggests that the sodium metal could be incorporated into a "snow globe." That wouldn't get you there. Snow globes are already banned from carry-on luggage. (They contain liquid.) Anonymous • June 19, 2007 2:44 AM @Revtkatt Chest Xrays by the dozen even on a fetus will almost zero detectable birth defect rate. By almost zero You will need a sample size well in the millions to tell the difference from normal birth defects. The effects on those older than a weeks from concenption really don't need to worry. Thats why we don't keep track of how many xrays you have had (most of the time). Personlay I would be happer with normal xrays than backscatter xrays. However I have my doubts that either would significantly incress safty. They detect current explosives and other devices. No ones desinged to avoid xray dection. (not as hard as you may think). Greg • June 19, 2007 3:04 AM @CleverShark Cotton T-shirts -> nitrocotton/nitrocellulose [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nitrocellulose]. Show the HNO3+the rest mix with the shirt diped in. With drying after. Then the caboom when detenated. Whats wrong. Well its hard to get everthing right and Detination would be difficult. Nirtocotton is a slow explosive (relative) used to stabalize nitroglyrine (aka dynamite) and smokeless powders and is not used on its own usally. You won't get much of a bang from a tshirt. The cotton losses its strenght, and you will stink. Every dog within a mile of the airport will know that you are "hinky" without traning. The chance of really pulling it off is zero, at best 1:1000001. But you need to ban clothing. Ben Rosengart • June 19, 2007 1:13 PM Re entomology/etymology: "There's a word bug in your bug word." MisterMiracle • June 20, 2007 9:50 AM @Greg: If I've learned anything from Neon Genesis Evangelion, it's that if something has a 0.0000001 chance of working, it will invariably work. greg • June 21, 2007 8:52 AM @MisterMiracle Well thats why is was 1 chance in a million and *one*. Because 1 in million events happen 4 times out of five. In case others don't know. This is a Diskworld thing. Ron • June 21, 2007 6:05 PM Thanks to you folks for your generous praise and even more for the nitpicking. I really had fun coming up with this, and as a closet science nerd I had an especially fun time coming up with the butterfly clue - crossing disciplines is the true measure of a science nerd. futnuh • June 21, 2007 11:06 PM @Revtkatt: Air Canada has just banned pets on commercial flights. They say it's to free up more space for cargo, but we know the real reason ;-) EntropyWorks • June 21, 2007 11:36 PM Nice, now you have to shut off the water in the bathrooms. Remove all that blue water in the toilet too. Boy I can't wait to fly again with people lined up to use a dry toilet. Think camping trip in the woods where they just dig a big hole. The smell ain't that bad in the wood but in a closed system like a plane... And humans are made up of...... what? We need to ban all those liquid-filled humans from flying. It's the only way. Diapers? Hours of evacuation beforehand? Don't be silly. The obvious answer is to sedate everyone for the duration of the trip. Yes, mandatory strip/body cavity searching, and let's hope the x-rays catch anything ingested/sewn into a body cavity. Then into a TSA jumpsuit, line up for the needle, take your seat and ZZZZzzzzz .... Better still, you fall asleep on a gurney in the waiting area and then handlers/robots stack you in like cordwood. Tom Kelly • June 22, 2007 6:50 AM A solution is to get rid of the target. What are 183 people doing on the same plane anyway. We need a massive fleet of small 6-8 seat planes that can be flown by a single pilot/security guard/ticket taker/baggage loader/flight attendant who is backed up by redundant radio connections that allow the plane to be flown remotely in high traffic situations and in an emergency. Labor costs would be comparable to our existing system since the pilot does almost all of the customer service duties. Plane costs would be similar due to the efficiencies of producing tens of thousands of each model instead of hundreds. Airports would be less crowded because thousands of them could be used instead of a hundred or so. Travelers would be spared hours of travel time due to less security, closer airports, and the elimination of most connections. Schedules would not even exist for popular routes- just show up at the airport, buy a ticket, and off you go. Terrorists would be much less interested in blowing up a small plane with just a few passengers that will do little damage on the ground. The passengers will certainly notice and react to suspicious activity by one of their number. John in DC • June 22, 2007 9:22 AM When I was in high school I stole several grams of sodium from my high school chem lab and spent the better part of a day figuring out ways to make it blow up. Working with pieces about the size of half a golf ball I learned: 1) If you just put it in water it will spit and pop and probably ignite but that's about it. 2) You need to surround it with water - flushing it down the toilet does the trick nicely, and puts sodium hydroxide all over the ceiling. (The toilet will survive.) If you don't have a toilet handy you need to figure out a way to submerge the sodium, which otherwise floats. I suppose if you were intending to kill yourself in a plane crash you could just jam it to a container using your hand. 3) None of these explosions are substantial enough to blow a hole in anything, though they would certainly create a good deal of chaos in a confined space like an airline cabin. These were well shy of an M-80. (Do they make M-80s any more?) 4) The stuff really does oxidize fast and you would have to make some kind of special (and likely detectable) means for getting it on board the plane in explodable form. Reshaping it wouldn't work at all. The stuff is barely harder to work than play-doh and about as stiff. Nate • June 22, 2007 10:02 AM I know! Since people are such a large source of water, we'll just have to ban them from flights too. Restricted articles • June 28, 2007 12:12 PM We already have explosives banned from flying. As this plot is about an explosive metal, we should just refine our detection system without adding new items to the list. Regards. margaret • October 28, 2007 5:42 PM How about urine? Would it react with that? Might need to make everyone take a potty break before boarding. Stuart Gathman • December 4, 2007 6:03 PM @margaret Just require an escort for potty breaks - that goes with you into the tiny room. Charles • December 4, 2007 11:26 PM This story is fine, but would be improved 300% by a small change in my opinion: "No, it's not so ridiculous, it's really the only way. We're going to have to ban passengers."
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