The Future of AI Cryptanalysis

Matthew Green has been writing a rather pessimistic series of posts about the potential for AI systems to vastly outperform humans in cryptanalysis of both symmetric and public-key ciphers.

I am more optimistic than he is. That is, I have stronger faith in the over-engineering cryptographers tend to do. I am trying to write this up in more detail.

Posted on October 14, 2026 at 10:24 AM • 2 Comments

Comments

Ferentarius • October 14, 2026 10:40 AM

Re: “I’m not going to get a prize for being right, and everyone will make fun of me for being wrong“

To be right is a barren victory, and to be wrong is a public crucifixion. Life is a theater where applause and ridicule are equally hollow; the only authentic moment is the one in which we recoil from both.

Dave Sanford • October 14, 2026 11:38 AM

If AIs can solve the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, they can probably do this. I’m concerned that AI-driven offensive and defensive cryptanalysis could spark a new arms race.

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