Comments

This message will be deleted... March 15, 2024 5:16 PM

I’ll save you the time of reading echo’s posts and just leave this message here, IMO:

Men are always wrong and Women are always right.

Gay parades for all you must all be gay or kneel before the gays in worship.

Grown men wearing women’s clothing and clown makeup can read to your children during story time but you cannot raise your children in going to “church” because they need to figure out based on nothing whether they’re even a boy or a girl.

Clive is always wrong and he’s also a man.

We need more strong lesbian and gay alliance people here to spread their religion of homosexuality to others, even if it’s completely off topic.

tut

This message will be deleted

cybershow March 15, 2024 5:17 PM

Hi all,

This week we have a Cybershow episode called “Disappearing Worlds” It
is about how digital technology is making familiar human concepts like
trust, money, truth, care and even people “disappear”. This makes us
insecure.

Disappearing Worlds

Have a great weekend.

vas pup March 15, 2024 5:56 PM

@https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2024/03/friday-squid-blogging-operation-squid.html/#comment-433827

Yes, probably will be deleted.
I guess this blog is not about LGBTQ+, WOKE, you name it but about really security issues which affect people regardless of their demographics, sexual orientation, political/religious affiliation.
Those subjects of security should unite all folks OR we just need danger of total extinction of humanity to forget about what is different among us and remember what is similar? – just opinion.

Hope my post will not be deleted as well.

vas pup March 15, 2024 5:57 PM

Hundreds rescued from love scam centre in the Philippines
https://www.yahoo.com/news/hundreds-rescued-love-scam-centre-094252739.html

“Hundreds of people have been rescued from a scam centre in the Philippines that made them pose as lovers online.

Police said they raided the centre on Thursday and rescued 383 Filipinos, 202
Chinese and 73 other foreign nationals.

The centre, which is about 100km north of Manila, was masquerading as an online
gambling firm, they said.

South East Asia has become a hub for scam centres where the scammers themselves are often entrapped and forced into criminal activity.

Young and tech-savvy victims are often lured into running these illegal operations, which range from money laundering and crypto fraud to so-called
love scams. The latter are also known as “pig butchering” scams, named after
the farming practice of fattening pigs before slaughtering them.”

For more information – follo the link.

44 52 4D CO+2 March 15, 2024 7:34 PM

Any estimates about the amount of food that had to be destroyed to recover 1.3 tons of banker’s delight?

Clive Robinson March 15, 2024 8:43 PM

@ vas pup, ALL,

Re : Horses do drink water.

“I guess this blog is not about LGBTQ+, WOKE, you name it but about really security issues which affect people regardless of their demographics, sexual orientation, political/religious affiliation.”

Or disabilities and a “hundred and one” other human/social issues.

Importantly though is nor is this blog anti any of those either.

There are two watch words for each and every thread,

1, Context
2, Relevance

The other day I posted again about a “relevant” security distinction between certain types of men and certain types of women as burglars. But importantly it was in a “context” of how long CCTV “footage” is retained.

The previous time I mentioned it was years ago, again it was both “relevant” and within “context”.

The fact that the gap was years was that security as a topic is very very broad, thus certain contexts come up very rarely or with the right relevance needing comment.

It was not as someone falsely assumed that the blog posters here,

1, Don’t get it,
2, Don’t see it,
3, Don’t acknowledge it,
4, Don’t want to talk about it.

It is because down the bottom of “The Computing Stack” where most of the blog threads are is “technical” which is agnostic to “good or bad” or “gender” or “sex” etc which are “human” thus up the top of the stack.

Yes, our host is broadening the blog and thread contexts are going “up the stack” as well as down.

But two things have to be remembered,

1, Most constructs have foundations it’s why we have the computing stack.
2, Getting foundations wrong is one of the most serious security flaws there is.

Thus like it or not this blog will remain “technical” in quite a large part, otherwise it would quickly be irrelevant as far as security is concerned

Oh the funny thing is that there is a flip side, in that some people have complained when we “talk technical” because it’s “not their sort of technical” or too deep down technical.

Because they fail to realise that “Domain Knowledge” is to “Renaissance People” a “transferable skill/asset” across many domains. That is what appears in what the complainer considers to be “not in their domain” thus riles against it, actually does apply to their domain, they just do not want to take the blinkers off and see “the knowledge transfer”.

I’m known to say that “Security folk” need to “get with it” as far as “Radio” is concerned and learn to play with “Software Defined Radio”(SDR) and GNU-Radio and similar. Untill recently I was almost “A lone voice in the dark” now however more people are seeing the relevance, even though they may not want to play in that sand pit.

Because for many in the past “radio” has been seen as at the very bottom of or even below the ISO OSI seven layer stack, or DoD APRA four layer stack. Thus they discount it…

I’ve explained the notion of,

1, Bubbling up attacks
2, Reach down / around attacks

Yet they do not put 2&2 together. Thus failed to realise there is a whole series of quite nasty attacks out there (which are now getting exploited). Not just RowHammer or Meltdown but many more such as the notion of “Phantom CPU’s” where the likes of “Memory Management Units”(MMUs), “I/O Management Units”(IOMMU) and “Direct Memory Access”(DMA) logic blocks well below the main CPU can not only be used as “backdoors” they also can be “Turing Compleat” thus “programmable” in ways most can not get their heads around easily.

Thus those on this blog need to have “wider horizons” and extend their knowledge both down and up the computing stack.

But… Also those with different perches on the rungs of the stack should remember that “horses do eventually drink water” they just want to do it in their own time and at their own pace.

Thus “context and relevance” remain as “watch words” of advice.

ResearcherZero March 15, 2024 11:51 PM

Robots don’t yet understand death.

‘https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/05/the-struggle-to-get-through-to-a-human-being-at-hmrc

HMRC said it was making good progress in modernising its IT estate.

‘https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/jun/18/whitehall-wide-open-to-cyber-attack

A need for institutional reforms.

‘https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/12/pentagon-cyber-command-private-companies-00115206

“You’re lucky you have such understanding management…” (mentions of decapitation)
https://web.archive.org/web/20070310035822/http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9011832&pageNumber=3

A need for a strategy (2011)

‘https://www.darkreading.com/cyber-risk/pentagon-reveals-theft-of-24-000-files-from-unnamed-contractor

ResearcherZero March 16, 2024 12:04 AM

On me farm, men and women all cry equal amounts about their little hands hurting. I can’t hear or spot the difference between one or another, especially over the phone.

You’re all soft. But that’s probably a better thing than you all being hard. 😉

JonKnowsNothing March 16, 2024 1:37 AM

@Clive, All

re: JN1 spring & summer waves

While a lot of information on C19 has dried up, there is still a trickle of information seeping out into the public sphere. Much of it contradictory and lots of information missing the science part.

USA

  • JN1 is the dominant form all over the USA. All previous versions have been squashed.
  • JN1 continues to mutate. Other versions continue to mutate.
  • JN1 mutations are gaining traction in the population

Vaccines are a mixed bag with contradictory information

  • 65+yo can get a spring jab. In other countries this can be 75yo.
  • The value of the jab is – hard to determine as jab rates are down. Jab effectiveness is very poor depending on what criteria is selected. 54% at best.

    • Prevention – No, Reduced Illness – No, Reduced hospitalizations – Maybe
  • Reporting on the outcomes is near nil. The only numbers that seem to count are those who end up in hospital. Going to the ER and being sent home, may not be counted in vaccine statistical results. The majority of people who get C19 with or without a jab, are told to

    • Stay home (CDC)
    • Go to work (CDC)
  • Winter 2023-2024 was the 2nd worst surge since 2019 primarily the JN1 variant

  • Long COVID 17.6M USA

    • Long COVID is increasing in scope, each round of C19 increases likelihood of symptoms
    • Long COVID doesn’t exist (AU QLD study) the after effects are the same as for other viral infections, like the flu. The symptoms are real we just shouldn’t use the C19 word for them.
    • There is no cure for Long COVID
  • RAT Test may not be reliable and may not be available

  • Treatments & drugs continue a declining scale of effectiveness

    • In practical terms, we have the same treatment options as in 2019. Only the extreme lethality of JN1 is less than D614G. JN1 is still very lethal.

The spring-summer 2024 edition of COVID-19 will be a global event, featuring mostly JN1 and its variants mixed with SARS-CoV-2 variants in other countries and cities.

The spring event is starting now with school holiday breaks and will be followed by summer vacation travel.

ResearcherZero March 16, 2024 2:13 AM

It’s good that humans are not heartless, metal, killing machines.
But are humans beginning to treat one another more like machines?

Windows of Sensitivity: Growing up in public

‘https://www.sciencenews.org/article/social-media-teens-mental-health

A well-intentioned but naïve intervention could backfire and come across as “creepy” and “too much.” [eggplant]
https://theconversation.com/its-not-just-bad-behavior-why-social-media-design-makes-it-hard-to-have-constructive-disagreements-online-161337

Definitional power is the capacity to paint social reality in the interests of dominant groups.

Some people are into the power of power
The absolute corrupting power that makes great men insane
While some people find their refreshment in action
The manipulation, encroachment and destruction of their inferiors

‘https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2056305116662398

How people jump to conclusions — even at their own cost — when they see others doing the same.

“People can learn to consider evidence worthless because others have acted as though it is worthless. However, we found that they do this even when good evidence is available. This means they all too frequently make decisions that go against their own success.”

[blank space]

‘https://phys.org/news/2021-03-reveals-people-tendency-conclusions.html

Growing Up In Public (with your pants down)

‘https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0wLnLhudPjE

ResearcherZero March 16, 2024 2:22 AM

“People You May Know”

“Friend” recommendation system for sociopaths and sadists.

‘https://www.wired.com/story/764-com-child-predator-network/

Large increase in complaints following sacking of thousands of workers at Meta.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/06/facebook-content-enabled-child-sexual-abuse-new-mexico-lawsuit.html

Meta uses an AI reporting system which fails to do the job.

‘https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/jan/17/child-sexual-abuse-ai-moderator-police-meta-alphabet

The AI System – Slum School: disposable labour for as little as $1.50 an hour

“We just think of it as normal. It’s a competitive advantage.”

‘https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-46055595

Harmful content moderation at $2.20 per-hour ends.

‘https://www.businessinsider.com/meta-shuts-down-moderating-harmful-content-east-african-office-2023-1

“I can’t afford the therapy that I need with the barely-living-wage pay that we receive.”
https://theintercept.com/2020/06/18/facebook-moderator-ptsd-settlement-accenture/

In many cases, users report no action being taken by the company.

‘https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/mar/14/facebook-messenger-meta-pay-child-sexual-abuse-exploitation

ResearcherZero March 16, 2024 3:04 AM

$12.7 billion worth of meth, cocaine, MDMA, heroin and cannabis was consumed last year, more than $2 billion more than the year previous.

‘https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/drug-use-in-wa-plummeted-during-the-pandemic-so-what-happened-when-borders-opened-20240312-p5fbvh.html

“We drain over 100 gigalitres of water through main drains out into the ocean and into the estuary every year.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-10/primary-water-source-in-perth-drying-up/100974130

100 to 230mm less rainfall each year since 1971–2010 compared to 1911–1970

‘https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/water/managing-aquifers-to-deal-with-groundwater-loss/

Decline in recharge of southwest groundwater is unprecedented for the last 800 years
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00858-7

The Gnangara groundwater system is made up of three aquifers.

1,000 gigalitres of groundwater is being lost from the Superficial aquifer since 1980

‘https://www.wa.gov.au/service/natural-resources/water-resources/interactive-water-science-maps

morganism March 16, 2024 4:25 AM

Just dropped to see if anything here on the Nebula hack of the Russian Govt. Claimed worm dropped into the main secure gov network there.
Last post on X was Mar 12, havn’t heard or seen much since then.

“We have encrypted all systems of the Moscow Government. Not the website mosreg. All internal systems of government. pic.twitter.com/NrZNs03qkE
— Nebula (@Nebula00x) March 11, 2024”

https://fintechs.fi/hacktivist-group-nebula-strikes-at-the-russian-election-systems/

Russian hacking group ‘Nebula’ claims to have breached the Moscow government systems and encrypted the intranet data. They say the virus is self-replicating and will continue to infect systems on the network. This could totally paralyze the Moscow government. https://t.co/0nBHGWSliL
— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) March 11, 2024

ResearcherZero March 16, 2024 5:29 AM

“preparations by the authorities to impose sweeping Internet blockages”

‘https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/03/12/meduza-is-facing-the-most-intense-cyberattack-campaign-in-its-history

Plan to to “reshape the society and facilitate rapid mobilization following the elections“
https://informnapalm.org/en/russia-after-the-elections/

Network of European websites spreading Kremlin disinfo.

‘https://insightnews.media/pro-russian-websites-network-in-europe-serve-russia-information-warfare/

Waking up the sleeper agents. – “The countries which were part of this former Communist bloc are one of the major sources for the FSB and GRU recruiting.”
https://www.euronews.com/2023/08/18/spies-like-us-how-does-russias-intelligence-network-operate-across-europe

Kremlin disinfo more successful than originally thought.

‘https://www.hybridcoe.fi/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/20240306-Hybrid-CoE-Working-Paper-29-The-impact-of-Kremlin-disinformation-WEB.pdf

Urban humans have lost much of their ability to digest cellulose. Rural hicks more adept.

‘https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/49259/20240315/gut-bacteria-cellulose-digestion-plants.htm

[bonus cool graphic]

“They found, for example, levels as high as 30% to 40% in non-human primates and humans from 1,000 years ago, and 20% in modern hunter–gatherer people. In sharp contrast, they found that those eating a modern diet showed levels less than 5%.”

‘https://phys.org/news/2024-03-team-bacteria-species-human-gut.html

Winter March 16, 2024 5:32 AM

@morganism

From the link:
‘https://fintechs.fi/hacktivist-group-nebula-strikes-at-the-russian-election-systems/
By taking this bold step, they aim to expose and challenge what they perceive as a fraudulent election, strategically targeting essential systems to disrupt the electoral process and call for transparency and fairness.

This is purely a PR move. Everybody knows the votes have long been tabulated. The authorities do not need the actual ballots to publish the results of the election.

Clive Robinson March 16, 2024 9:29 AM

@ JonKnowsNothing, MarkH, SpaceLifeForm, Winter,

Re : C19, JN1, long Covid and what’s to come.

Another year,
Another reaping of humanity,
Another maiming of many,
With vast waste and lost opportunity cost,
As Big Phama pulls in another billion or more in fraud earned dollar.

When will it end?

“While a lot of information on C19 has dried up, there is still a trickle of information seeping out into the public sphere. Much of it contradictory and lots of information missing the science part.”

If you look back to the very begining of 2019 on this blog, there were predictions and prognostications made by “the usual suspects” and most have been proved so far.

Some are still on the countdown clock such as increases in cancers and people incurring life long immunocompromise of organs and the like[1].

The only “honest” figures have been from things politicians and the like can not avoid such as the legally required recording of deaths, and the consequent “Excess Death” figures.

Though they are also “fiddled” by giving as percentages of preceding five year average… In an upward curve 10% of the previous five years growth is way more actual deaths this year than it was in the first year of that five year average, even though it’s still 10%…

You can see this from simple 10% per year growth you can calculate in your head starting at 100,

110, 121, 133.1, 146.41, 161.051

Now multiply by millions of coffins.

[1] Whilst still disputed by the “old guard” and those with “blame the victim” accusations for pecuniary benefit, the evidence that certain pathogens like virii are direct causes or triggers of cancer and immunocompromise is growing remorselessly as it did with environmental triggers.

JonKnowsNothing March 16, 2024 10:28 AM

@Clive, @ MarkH, SpaceLifeForm, Winter, All

re: “fiddled” by giving as percentages of preceding five year average

In many aspects of C19 reporting, they fiddle the baseline, they fiddle the threshold and ceiling values, restate the valuations, in a way that makes comparisons difficult.

  • Stock Markets require businesses to submit annual reports, and those reports must have a 5 year or 10 year annual comparison list. If a company restates one aspect or recasts numbers for one year, they are required to recast all the other years using the same change method.

For C19 reporting there is no recasting. You have to read the fine print if it is included.

  • The CDC heat map of C19 infections shows only areas that actual report data, as many states are no longer required to report anything, and only for regions having “above 300 sequences for 2 weeks”.

Per the displayed map, this is only 5 sections of the USA. The entire central portion of the USA and the NW section are Undefined.

My personal peeve is the “numbers per 100,000” value. This really masks the actual cases in an area, primarily since you have to look up how many people live in NY or London compared to how many people live in a rural setting. For small cities and rural areas under 100,000 population this value is always zero.

Clive Robinson March 16, 2024 10:36 AM

@ ResearcherZero

Re : WA’s not so little problem.

$12.7 billion worth of meth, cocaine, MDMA, heroin and cannabis was consumed last year, more than $2 billion more than the year previous.

Quoting “price” is a bit of a “political trick” as it’s related to “supply and demand” not to actual net weight consumption.

But the rapid rise in cannabis consumption does not surprise me at all.

It’s a drug that is strongly related to pain relief (like the bodies own pain relief chemicals) both physical and mental.

It’s main “downside” is where it gets it’s early street name, in that it makes you “doppy”.

The opposite effect is achieved by amphetamines but they do not stop the pain relief effects of cannabis

Back in the 1980’s research was done on using the two in combination to deal with long term and otherwise incurable pain. Only as usual certain types of Politicians with very conservative often nutball religious convictions kicked off.

However like the active ingredient in “magic mushrooms” now getting proper research into how it helps for chronic depression. Research into chronic pain has alleviated restrictions on cannabis I suspect amphetamine research in combination will be re-started and published with probably beneficial results. As for other “drugs” it’s long been known that “LSD” helps those with chronic migraines. Medical literature is increasing with the likes of,

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5584001/

What the graph in the “WA Today” article tells me is that for most recreational drugs little has changed, but that Cannabis and methamphetamine usage is rising significantly.

Which begs the question of people maybe “self medicating” for what they feel is incurable pain and consequent depression in WA…

Now the relevent question might be,

“What could have caused an increase in this sort of pain in WA?”

And for that matter world wide…

There might be a relevant answer a little further up this thread…

Winter March 16, 2024 10:38 AM

@Clive

The only “honest” figures have been from things politicians and the like can not avoid such as the legally required recording of deaths, and the consequent “Excess Death” figures.

Use life expectancy. These nicely show the dips.

‘https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/life-expectancy/

Historically, by country:
‘https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/life-expectancy

Erdem Memisyazici March 16, 2024 12:40 PM

I wonder if they began the investigation with the thought, “something fishy is going on here.”

Winter March 16, 2024 1:23 PM

@Al

So, since greater Wuhan, with 20 million people in a country with 1 billion has about 2% of the population, there was a 2% chance that the virus would have appeared there and a 98% chance it would have emerged elsewhere.

Which holds for every city in China. Every place in earth/China is statistically equally unlikely. The previous corona epidemic started in Hongkong. What are the odds that a corona epidemic starts in Hongkong?

So, statistical ignorance leads to conspiracy theories. Theories intended to distract from horrible incompetence of policy makers in the face of a pandemic.

lurker March 16, 2024 3:26 PM

@Winter, All
“Use life expectancy. These nicely show the dips.”

I looked at those curves and found a significant dip for US, UK, and to a lesser extent Canada, for the years 2014-2018, pre-covid. No such dip was evient for AU, NZ, or a few European countries I checked.

JN1 is the current Variant of Interest here too, but figures are less reliable since reporting is no longer required, so PCR tests are far and few. But the wastewater detections are showing an upward divergence from reported cases. This link is a mix of static and dynamic data, and dynamic data whose source is no longer available.

‘https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-depth/450874/covid-19-data-visualisations-nz-in-numbers

JonKnowsNothing March 16, 2024 5:08 PM

@lurker, Winter, All

re: Use life expectancy drips and dips

Each country defined what they would do and not do from 2019-present. Some countries took the isolation route, either by intent or by getting caught in the No Fly No Travel rules in other places.

NZ had the best record for all aspects of C19, during the early years. They established a protocol that was sabotaged internally by NZ persons in charge of the isolation management. Later that was further sabotaged by AU attempting to create an open transit corridor but failing on their end to keep the corridor clean.

AU did OK, but mostly because no one was going there. The internal feuds between AU States about closed borders and open borders mirrored those issues globally. Once the virus escaped into AU general population it was game over for AU.

During these years life expectancy in NZ and AU did not shift much. It was after the collapse of isolation protocols that large numbers of people died. Most of them in care homes, elderly or with the convenient “pre-existing condition”. AU particularly did not report C19 statistics. NZ was limited but the death toll there was in the same demographic groups but also hit the Maori population. The AU indigenous peoples got heavily impacted but AU has an odd view of this population so it was not included in AU statistics.

In the USA, death statistics are highly suspect. Only if you die in hospital does it count. If you are triaged to a rehab facility or hospice the cause of death and contributing cause list may have no indication of C19. It is the responsibility of the Hospice MD to decide what to place in those fields and COVID is not the first choice on their list.

Winter March 16, 2024 5:50 PM

@JonKnowsNothing

In the USA, death statistics are highly suspect. Only if you die in hospital does it count.

Life expectancy does not care about cause of death.

vas pup March 16, 2024 6:48 PM

@Clive “Thus “context and relevance” remain as “watch words” of advice.” No doubt – thank you for your input.

@ALL on robots

Advanced army robots more likely to be blamed for deaths
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/03/240314122121.htm

“Advanced killer robots are more likely to blamed for civilian deaths than
military machines, new research has revealed. The study shows that high-tech
bots will be held more responsible for fatalities in identical incidents.

Dr Dawtry said: “As robots are becoming more sophisticated, they are performing a wider range of tasks with less human involvement.

“Some tasks, such as autonomous driving or military uses of robots, pose a risk to peoples’ safety, which raises questions about how — and where — responsibility will be assigned when people are harmed by autonomous robots.

“This is an important, emerging issue for law and policy makers to grapple with, for example around the use of autonomous weapons and human rights.

“Our research contributes to these debates by examining how ordinary people explain robots’ harmful behavior and showing that the same processes underlying how blame is assigned to humans also lead people to assign blame to robots.”

Other studies showed that simply labeling a variety of devices ‘autonomous robots’ lead people to hold them accountable compared to when they were labeled ‘machines’.

“For example, we found that simply labeling relatively simple machines, such
as those used in factories, as ‘autonomous robots’, lead people to perceive them as agentic and blameworthy, compared to when they were labeled ‘machines’.

lurker March 16, 2024 7:51 PM

@Winter
“Life expectancy does not care about cause of death.”

No, but we do, for reasons ranging from actuarial to salacious. The curves you referred to appear NOT to show a reduction in life expectancy, or rather a reduction in rate of increase of life expectancy, which could be attributed, even temporally to C19. Unless perhaps there is an error on the x-axis; or my browser is not displaying what their code thinks it should …

But again if the dip in the Nth America and UK curves is not caused by C19, then what? This is UN data, which could be expected to be massaged to reduce nationalistic artifacts, but one set of curves is drawn by macrotrends, which obviously shwws a dip 2014-2018. The other curve from worldometer shows only a slight reduction in the rate of increase of life expectancy for the five years prior to 2020. Are these two companies presumably with skin in the game both fudging the figures to hide the effects of C19? Both show the effects of the 1957-58 “Asian flu” pandemic to be more significant than C19, and more accurately placed on the time axis.

Clive Robinson March 16, 2024 9:30 PM

@ vas pup, ALL,

With regards the Science Daily article,

“Advanced killer robots are more likely to blamed for civilian deaths than military machines, new research has revealed.

To be honest I can not say I’m surprised.

Most humans when presented with something outside of their actual knowledge domains resort to what is often called “The Duck Test” of,

If it,
1, Looks like a duck,
2, Quacks like a duck,
3, Waddles like a duck,
Why would you think it was a goose?

At one time I used to work on the design of sub systems for “Bomb Disposal Systems” some called them “wheelbarrows” some called them “robots” neither was true, they were more accurately “Remotely Operated Vehicles With Remotely operated actuators”(ROV-ROA).

But the point is to most people they were either,

1, A robot.
2, A machine.

We are familiar with machines in the general sense of realising they have no “free agency” even when the go wrong and jump the tracks etc. We do not consider “the machine to be at fault” as it has no agency. We instead blame the closest “Directing Mind” we can find, be it the operator, maintainer, owner, builder, designer, specifier of the machine and it’s intended purpose.

However most have no real familiarity with robots even though we might have one or two in high end kitchen appliances (the simplest being auto-cookers in microwaves, or washing machines, that change their operation dependent on what you load into them). Or other more mobile home appliances like vacuum cleaners. What we are familiar with though, is the B-Movie “Mechanical-Man gone crazy” with the obligatory in chest doomsday device, or the computer that will destroy the world from space memes with awful catch phrases like “I’ll be back” or clunky footsteps.

Then we see US Army “robots” that look like mechanical dogs or headless horses and some how leap to the conclusion they must be more intelligent than the animals they vaguely look like…

Thus we fool ourselves into nightmare worse case thinking, via our B-Movie preconceptions and the duck test.

Putting labels on things is in effect just “putting a thumb on the scales” of an observers balance of judgment.

I have a friend who is gadget crazy and has both a vacuuming robot and a security robot trundling around his home. He also has “a neighbors cat” that comes in to demand food and attention. The cat appears to have a more sensible approach to the robots than most humans…

AL March 16, 2024 9:36 PM

@Winter

One big problem that I see, and the AI has been helpful is people who dislike dealing with inconvenient truths. There is nobody more concerned about this than government. The other week, the AI spat out something or other about India’s Modi, and they object.

But Google drives the point home with their AI that has a Flounder from the sensitivity training group filter on the AI’s output.

It became clear to me that what we need for AI is 1st officer Spock from Star Trek. Since AI does run on a desktop, I’m working towards getting that Spock.

In this thing about Covid origins, I don’t think we should think like Democrats or Republicans. We should instead think like Spock and that is what I intend to do. And I think Spock would say that the “likelihood or chance” that the coronavirus originated from the lab greatly exceeds the likelihood or chance that the coronavirus emerged naturally and its first appearance in Wuhan is purely coincidental. That does appear to be your position.

I don’t think it’s science. I think your natural emergence theory is a political diagnosis because of the legal ramifications involved if there is human culpability. Your people are hiding behind “reasonable doubt”, but Spock would give me “preponderance of the evidence” and preponderance means lab.

I’m a kinda of let the chips lie where they fall. The chances that the association between the lab and virus was true was much greater that the chances that there was no association. I dispute claims to the contrary. Possible that there is no association, not saying impossible, but am saying not likely, had significantly a lesser chance.

Those kinds of evaluations are scientific based. I think there has been a large conflict of interests present in areas of the science. And finally, I think it is hazardous to grant the state the benefit of the doubt on matters like this that could involve negligent homicide, involuntary conscription into medical experiments etc. I see that as supporting fascism.

JonKnowsNothing March 16, 2024 10:52 PM

@AL, All

re: Lab or Nature

This is of minor historical value. Everything starts with nature. Humans tend to mess things up. Your question is more like: is it “intentional messing up” or “accidental messing up”. In both cases humans are the central pivot point.

However, rather than worry about historical maybes, you might want to concern yourself with the many SARS-CoV-2 animal reservoirs, that exist globally. It does show that COVID-19 can live happily in whitetail deer when it is lethal to humans. (1) There are quite a few host-reservoirs, now. So every hunting season, one can expect the Bring Home The Trophy set will bring home COVID-19 from their deer carcasses, hides, and antlers. As each geographic group of deer have their own variant, we can look forward to many years of Bambi’s Vengeance.

  • There is also Deer Chronic Wasting Disease similar to BSE Mad Cow coming to the family dinner. (2)

The other aspect that’s concerning, and it’s not just for COVID-19, is that all that virus in the wastewater, rolls into the oceans. Many countries use the oceans to dump their garbage including used medical kit (PPE). So COVID-19 is rolling around in the oceans and infecting ocean animals. (3)

===

1)

htt ps://e n.wikiped ia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_in_white-tailed_deer

  • March 2022 joint statement regarding animal monitoring, the World Health Organization (WHO), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) specifically cited white-tailed deer as an example of a newly formed wild animal reservoir.
  • SARS-CoV-2 evolves at an accelerated pace in white-tailed deer, at triple the rate of viral evolution in humans. White-tailed deer also maintain active infections much longer than humans, with infections lasting anywhere between six and nine months.

htt ps://en.wikip edia.org/wiki/List_of_animals_that_can_get_SARS-CoV-2

Listing of animals known to contract COVID-19

2)

https://en.wiki ped ia.org/wiki/Chronic_wasting_disease

  • Chronic wasting disease (CWD), sometimes called zombie deer disease, is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) affecting deer. TSEs are a family of diseases thought to be caused by misfolded proteins called prions and include similar diseases such as BSE (mad cow disease) in cattle, Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease (CJD) in humans and scrapie in sheep.
  • Natural infection causing CWD affects members of the deer family. In the United States, CWD affects mule deer, white-tailed deer, red deer, sika deer, elk, caribou, and moose.

  • Experimental transmission of CWD to other species such as squirrel monkeys and genetically modified mice has been shown.

3)

htt ps://en.wik ipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_and_animals#Impact_of_personal_protective_equipment_(PPE)_pollution

  • Impact of personal protective equipment (PPE) pollution
  • Wastewater transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the marine environment

JonKnowsNothing March 17, 2024 12:20 AM

@lurker, @Winter, ALL

re: @W: “Life expectancy does not care about cause of death.”

Yes there is a difference in how deaths are counted.

  • One is the average length of time, your birth cohort is expected to live. This is set on your day and year of birth.
  • The other metric is morbidity-mortality which is if you do not make it to your expected date as defined above, what killed you.
    • Mortality rate, or death rate, is a measure of the number of deaths (in general, or due to a specific cause) in a particular population
    • Morbidity is a diseased state, disability, or poor health due to any cause.

So technically, life expectancy is about how long you MIGHT live. Causes of Death and Contributing Factors to Cause of Death are about why you didn’t make it.

For the most of us, average folks we don’t make much distinction in the usage of the words, but there is a definition difference for some people.

re: @l: if the dip in the Nth America and UK curves is not caused by C19, then what?

I may not understand your question completely but there is a verifiable change in Deaths in the USA, from before COVID pandemic.

These deaths are called Deaths of Despair (suicide, alcohol, drugs) and the magnitude is off the scale but only in the USA and only for a particular demographic: Non Hispanic White Males.

Details of this situation are examined in a book

  • Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism (1)

To understand exactly what is happening in the USA, and only in the USA, the authors present an analysis of where, when, why and how. The book is well presented and quite readable. However, the results do require some time to absorb the meaning, as these deaths are not from any of the commonly attributed causes.

So, within this demographic, the numbers have risen off the charts and have been accelerating for some decades.

===

1)

Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism

Case, Anne; Deaton, Angus (2020). Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism.

Princeton University Press. ISBN 978-0691190785.

ht tps://en.wik ipedia.org/wiki/Angus_Deaton

  • Sir Angus Stewart Deaton FBA[1] (born 19 October 1945) is a British-American economist and academic. Deaton is currently a Senior Scholar and the Dwight D. Eisenhower Professor of Economics and International Affairs Emeritus at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs and the Economics Department at Princeton University. His research focuses primarily on poverty, inequality, health, wellbeing, and economic development.[2]
  • In 2015, he was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his analysis of consumption, poverty, and welfare.

ht tps://en.wi kipedia.org/wiki/Anne_Case

  • Anne Catherine Case, Lady Deaton, (born July 27, 1958) is an American economist who is currently the Alexander Stewart 1886 Professor of Economics and Public Affairs, emeritus, at Princeton University

h ttps:/ /en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease_of_despair

  • Mortality and morbidity rates in the United States have been decreasing for decades. Between 1970 and 2013, mortality rates for middle-aged Americans fell by 44% and morbidity was on a decline even among the elderly
  • the US White non-Hispanic population significantly differs from populations in other countries. For example, in 2015, drug, alcohol and suicide mortality was more than two times higher among US White non-Hispanics in comparison to people from the United Kingdom, Sweden or Australia.

ResearcherZero March 17, 2024 12:36 AM

How we talk about abstract things affects how we think of them.

‘https://www.popsci.com/language-time-perception/

Persuasive and Evasive

https://uwaterloo.ca/news/media/research-shows-people-who-bs-are-more-likely-fall-bs

A mismatch between the adaptive strategies people devise and the information they receive, resulting in people reacting disproportionately to information.

“These concepts are reentering the policy lexicon as types of intentional policy responses that are largely undertaken when political executives are vulnerable to voters. Intentional overreactions derive from the desire of political executives to pander to voters’ opinions or signal extremity by overreacting to these opinions in domains susceptible to manipulation for credit-claiming purposes.”

Intentional underreactions are motivated by political executives’ attempts to avoid blame and may subsequently lead to deliberate overreaction.

‘https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11077-016-9259-8

Pteropid lyssavirus was discovered in 1955. Outbreaks often occur following deforestation.

‘https://www.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/content/cda-cdi2109-pdf-cnt.htm/$FILE/cdi2109a.pdf

“lost bat habitats, droughts and a lack of flowering plants as key indicators of potential Hendra outbreaks.”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-25/hendra-virus-bat-habitat-flying-fox-research-horses/102011352

Lorikeet paralysis syndrome has occurred since the 1970’s. The cause remains unidentified.

‘https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/thousands-of-rainbow-lorikeets-are-unable-to-fly-and-vets-don-t-know-why-20240208-p5f3ch.html

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-01/mysterious-virus-killing-lorikeets-in-queensland/12205888

Feline infectious peritonitis was first discovered in 1963, though you may notice there is only a mention at the bottom of the following article that: “the virus is not unique to the country and has been previously reported in the UK”.

‘https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/cyprus-dead-cat-island-feline-coronavirus-outbreak/

“Despite decades of research into bats and the pathogens they carry, the fields of bat virus ecology and molecular biology are still nascent, with many questions largely unexplored”

“The observation that bats may be refractory to, or tolerant of, viral infection was noted as early at 1936, yet the immunological mechanisms that underpin this phenotype have only begun to be elucidated in the past few years.”

‘https://www.nature.com/articles/s41579-020-0394-z

[CHOP, CHOP, CHOP. followed by roar of chainsaws… some bulldozer sounds]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/16/health/deforestation-bats-hendra-virus.html

HeV first emerged in Hendra, Australia in 1994 where the outbreak was responsible for the death of a horse trainer, illness in a horse strapper, and the death of 20 horses.

‘https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8510678/

Enabling conditions for Hendra virus spillover

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4262174/

ResearcherZero March 17, 2024 1:02 AM

A recent study suggests measles appeared about 4,000 years ago, originating from a virus affecting livestock.

‘https://theconversation.com/explainer-a-history-of-the-measles-virus-and-why-its-so-tenacious-130262

“The date was April 12, 1955 — the announcement came from Ann Arbor, Mich. Church bells tolled, factory whistles blew. People ran into the streets weeping. President Eisenhower invited Jonas Salk to the White House, where he choked up while thanking Salk for saving the world’s children — an iconic moment, the height of America’s faith in research and science. Vaccines became a natural part of pediatric care.”

Poliovirus is believed to have existed within human populations for at least 3,500 years.

https://www.npr.org/sections/npr-history-dept/2015/04/10/398515228/defeating-the-disease-that-paralyzed-america

Before a polio vaccine became available, several polio epidemics had occurred between 1948 and 1955. Many people avoided crowds and public gatherings, such as fairs, sports games and swimming pools, during this time due to concern about getting polio. Some parents wouldn’t let their children play with new friends and regularly checked them for symptoms.

“The first epidemics appeared in the form of outbreaks of at least 14 cases near Oslo, Norway, in 1868 and of 13 cases in northern Sweden in 1881. About the same time, the idea began to be suggested that the hitherto sporadic cases of infantile paralysis might be contagious.”

‘https://www.britannica.com/science/polio/Polio-through-history

ResearcherZero March 17, 2024 1:35 AM

Your collection of personal germs is a unique blend. Pretty darn cool hey! 😀

‘https://phys.org/news/2024-03-bacteria-personal-thought.html

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2024/03/427241/covid-19-virus-can-stay-body-more-year-after-infection

Are we all livestock? Should we shoot all the livestock? No.

Should we all stop drinking milk. No.

Your phones (and bodies) are covered in viruses and bacteria.

reacting disproportionately to information

‘https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11077-016-9259-8

How we talk about abstract things affects how we think of them.
https://www.popsci.com/language-time-perception/

How to liberally apply all that BS to your garden…

(seriously a good guide for the proper application of manure)

‘https://extension.psu.edu/wise-use-of-manure-in-home-vegetable-gardens

Winter March 17, 2024 4:48 AM

@Clive

Also that due to Wuhan’s status as a travel hub, it is also a business hub, and with that an entertainment hub.

All the arguments you give were also the very reason Wuhan got their big biology center. It has always been a disease hotspot.

Winter March 17, 2024 5:26 AM

@ResearcherZero

If you were not covered in germs you would very likely die.

Without the ones in your gut, you certainly would die. Or you would have to eat a very special diet with a lot of additives.

Winter March 17, 2024 5:36 AM

@JonKnowsNothing

These deaths are called Deaths of Despair (suicide, alcohol, drugs) and the magnitude is off the scale but only in the USA and only for a particular demographic: Non Hispanic White Males.

Also called the “Opioid Crisis” where the Sacklers almost singlehandedly killed over 600,000 Americans.

In the UK, life expectancy was falling for the same reason, increasing poverty.
‘https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58893328

Also in the UK, the in/decrease of life expectancy is in lockstep with Conservative Rule: Life expectancy only increases when the Conservatives are not at the helm:
‘https://theconversation.com/life-expectancy-in-britain-has-fallen-so-much-that-a-million-years-of-life-could-disappear-by-2058-why-88063

Clive Robinson March 17, 2024 6:40 AM

@ JonKnowsNothing, ALL,

Re : Almost reminiscing about bias.

“However, rather than worry about historical maybes, you might want to concern yourself with the many SARS-CoV-2 animal reservoirs, that exist globally.”

You and I had many concerns over “animal reservoirs” back in the early part of C19 around about the time of the cull and disastrous burial of mink in Europe.

I was mostly worried about rats and mice, other rodents, family pets, and farm livestock, due to their normal proximity of these to humans in the UK and just about every other part of the world as well.

I was less worried about actual live in the wild wild creatures like otters and similar, and I got it wrong.

As it turns out so far I was right about mice, it’s how Omicron allegedly came about in Africa.

But I’d discounted wild creatures like deer from my thinking.

The question is why?

The answer is whilst we do do game and wildlife control outside of fishing we hunt very little. Some do shoot “game birds” and when I was quite a bit younger I used to shoot a lot of rabbit and pigeon “for the pot” on farmland around where I lived.

But in the UK hunting is now seen as a “blood sport” and much is made about “The noble Stag” being “torn down by dogs” and equivalent… So outside of rural areas where game control is still considered “normal” the carrying of a firearm attracts much unwanted attention from “the boys in blue”. It’s got so bad that a Scotsman carrying a just repaired table leg home in a bag got accosted, shot, and killed from behind by two policemen… But this apparently was OK with the powers that be because “it could have been a gun” and “what’s one more dead Paddy anyway”[1]…

So in much of England there is next to no places for “wildlife” to exist and the general population rarely sees wildlife let alone come into communicable disease range of it.

So yup my view was unintentionally “biased”.

[1] The story makes grim reading with the police coming out very badly. The least anti reference is probably,

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shooting_of_Harry_Stanley

Apparently there had been an anonymous report of “an Irishman with a gun in a bag”, so the thinking “he must have been a terrorist” or some such.

Clive Robinson March 17, 2024 7:10 AM

@ ResearcherZero, ALL,

“Your collection of personal germs is a unique blend. Pretty darn cool hey! 😀”

That depends…

Some see your “micro flora” as more unique than a fingerprint, and like skin cells subject to “Edmond Locard’s Principle”[1].

Thus they are already seriously looking at using it as a “biometric”.

Some TV series like “Bones” have mentioned it and “Warehouse 13” made a fairly big thing out of “Arties’ spit lock” on the “Bronzer” which had just the right amount of comedic yuck factor.

[1] Most simply expressed as,

“Every contact leaves a trace”

It’s the notion in forensics that there is an exchange of material on every contact. Thus if you have been to the scene of a crime you leave part of you behind, and take part of it with you. Thus you can be tied to the crime… (Actually not it’s a lot more complicated).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Locard%27s_exchange_principle

Winter March 17, 2024 9:15 AM

@Clive

You and I had many concerns over “animal reservoirs” back in the early part of C19 around about the time of the cull and disastrous burial of mink in Europe.

Virologists very early on were unanimous about the future of SARS2. It would never again go away. We already had 4 ones who had been around for a century or more causing little more than a simple cold.[1]

The common opinion among virologists is that SARS2 will go the same route.

[1] an article from spring 2019 explaining these viruses:
‘https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7157439/
With a simple warning that might have been heeded with some benefits. Remember, this is spring 2019:

Continuous surveillance on animal species including bats and other mammals residing near bat habitats is essential for early identification of potential zoonotic outbreak and prediction of possible interspecies jumping. Emphasis should be placed around wet markets, farms and abattoirs to safeguard humans from novel zoonotic pathogens.

AL March 17, 2024 11:39 AM

@JonKnowsNothing – Your question is more like: is it “intentional messing up” or “accidental messing up”

No it isn’t. My question is, did God or man do it? I think the likelihoods indicate “man” and the likelihoods indicate “accidental”, although I would include “negligence”. I make no claim that there was any intentional release and do not believe that.

Winter March 17, 2024 11:59 AM

@Clive

Whilst people will say that the stories are being amped up by rivals,

With fresh memories of the death of hundreds of passengers due to intentional misinformation and pilot mistraining, Boeing does not need rivals to harm their brand. Having a whistleblower dying under murky circumstances just before another round of depositions and a few new near disasters with their planes just adds spice to their fall.

Boeing has lied to and deceived regulators and customers for many years for personal gain. They deserve much more “punishments” than they are getting.

Winter March 17, 2024 12:12 PM

@AL

My question is, did God or man do it?

Neither did. It happened all by itself. No sentient entity created a new viral variant.

Such things happen like rain and storm or throwing 6 times 6 with a dice, if you wait long enough.

Evolution created elephants and oak trees from single cell mud archeabacteria. It can easily produce a virulent virus. Evolution already had created 2 deadly coronaviruses just in the last two decades alone (SARS1 and MERS). A third deadly coronavirus was in the books. It was even predicted multiple times [1]

So, unless there is factual evidence, your “question” can be answered by putting the full blame on your deity of choice.

[1] ‘https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7157439/

fib March 17, 2024 12:37 PM

Moderator, this is a test. My posts are vanishing after submission, even after confirmation. They are not being held for moderation, simply vanishing.

JonKnowsNothing March 17, 2024 12:50 PM

@Clive, @Winter, All

  • Deer

The problem with the deer COVID-19 reservoir is there are a lot of urban deer now. Either from people are encroaching into their habitat or the deer are moving into urban areas to munch on lawns and rose bushes. Deer reside in many eco-niches and cities that have deer incursions have difficulties dealing with deer population explosions. Since within cities there are no apex predators and shooting Bambi in someone’s front yard causes no end of problems.

So urban deer present similar human interaction problems as urban coyotes, urban foxes, urban feral hogs, urban wolves, urban bears and urban mountain lions.

  • Deaths of Despair: Opioids

Opioids and Fentanyl are only a fraction of the problem in the USA. The condition reviewed in the book is the unique outlier of deaths in the USA.

Opioids and Fentanyl exist globally. Deaths from drug overdose in countries other than the USA all have similar statistical metrics, however, the death metrics in the USA far exceed the metrics of other countries.

Opioids and Fentanyl contribute but are not the sole cause of the anomaly in the USA.

The book shows there is a different mechanism at work in USA, increasing rate of Deaths of Despair for one demographic. The factors indicated do not exist, or do not exist yet, in other countries.

lurker March 17, 2024 1:12 PM

@Clive Robinson
re, “table leg might have been a gun”

But a man who was “searched” on arrest, still managed with hands cuffed behind him, to pull a gun from a holster and shoot a PC.

‘https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-65833109

lurker March 17, 2024 1:24 PM

@fib

It happens. Auto-mod sees nothing wrong, approves, then later a human mod sees something s/he doesn’t like …

If you mean you get an approval notice but the post never appears, that sounds like a [java|php]script bug

Clive Robinson March 17, 2024 1:52 PM

@ AL,

Re : Deities are unnecessary except for the mentally feeble.

“My question is, did God or man do it?”

As noted deities do not actually exist so “God is out”

But although man was responsible not in the way you are implying.

There are over 2^32 viruses around and they mutate from around once a month to once a year which is why we have currently the estimate of 4billion or more. Most have little or no effect on humans.

There are several ways viri can mutate but the one that is most problematic is when a host is infected by two or more viri simultaneously and the RNA gets mixed up in a cell producing a new hybrid with very different properties to the original viri.

For reasons we still do not understand the mutations tend to reduce in lethality and can also reduce transmissibility.

Some viruses are multi-species but many are not (hence we’ve not been wiped out). Those that are multi-species can effect the different host types radically differently.

C19 mainly attacks the linings of human lungs and heart. In most other species it attacks the gut wall. So in humans it kills by respiratory failure but in animals it just gives diarrhoea etc.

The chance that a mutation can zoonotically transfer from one host species to another is primarily dependent on two things,

1, It mutates such that the new host species is susceptible.
2, The new host species are available before the mutation dies out.

Thus most viri that could significantly effect humans has been limited in the past simply due to lack of human availability.

Due to increasing population in humans, driving humans into wild habitat and displacing species that generally previously had no contact with humans zoonotic transference has increased significantly.

With out any maths required or conspiracy theories it can be easily seen that humans have indeed been responsible for the C19 Pandemic but it required no lab or wet market for this to happen. Hence my earlier point about the causal chain.

JonKnowsNothing March 17, 2024 2:25 PM

@Winter, @Clive, All

re: [C19] causing little more [symptoms] than a simple cold

I would suggest that the difference between viruses/bacteria infections and symptoms be a bit clearer. The “simple cold” is not simple at all.

There are many illnesses that have similar symptoms but the causes are wildly different, and those differences are important for treatment, care and prevention.

Which is one interesting aspect of C19 treatments, now mostly ineffective.

  • Viruses are not susceptible to antibiotics. Antibiotics work on bacteria only. Rx used monoclonal antibodies, not antibiotics, in attempts to either impede the viruses’ colonization of the human cells or to reduce the magnitude of the immune hyper-response Cytokine Storms. Antibiotics were used to control secondary bacterial opportunistic infections.

This did give some flex to what was put on the Death Certificate.

Winter March 17, 2024 3:30 PM

@JonKnowsNothing
re: [Coronaviruses] causing little more [symptoms] than a simple cold

I seem to have been unclear.

There are 7 known coronaviruses that infect humans. Four that have done so for a century or more and three that appeared only after the turn of the millennium.

The former four viruses cause symptoms that are described as “a common cold”. They are not known to cause any serious medical problems.

The latter three are all lethal. C19 is one of the latter three lethal viruses.

It is expected that the lethal coronaviruses will slowly evolve to become less virulent and most likely will eventually end up as medically unproblematic.

But predicting is difficult, especially of the future.

fib March 17, 2024 4:22 PM

@ lurker

Thanks, friend. The problem was on my side [yes, JS].

@ cybershow

re Disappearing Worlds

Very nice. Keep up the great work!

vas pup March 17, 2024 6:33 PM

@Clive: “Putting labels on things is in effect just “putting a thumb on the scales” of an observers balance of judgment.” Exactly! Label creates motivational bias and/or short cut for judgment if I got it right. Thank you.

@all
How the abnormal gets normalized – and what to do about it
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240314-how-the-abnormal-gets-normalised-and-what-to-do-about-it

“How not to be manipulated

In today’s onslaught of overwhelming information (and misinformation), it can be difficult to know who to trust. In this column, Amanda Ruggeri explores smart, thoughtful ways to navigate the noise. Drawing on insights from psychology, social science and media literacy, it offers practical advice, new ideas and evidence-based solutions for how to be a wiser, more discerning critical thinker.

Other research shows that you can even become habituated to your own negative
behavior: when volunteers lied repeatedly in order to get more money, their lies became bigger and bigger over the course of the experiment – and the parts of their brain associated with emotions activated less and less. The takeaway,the researchers concluded, was that the more we do something, even something we know is wrong, the less uncomfortable with it we become.

Be exposed to anything enough, in other words, and that thing winds up being
normalized. Even if it’s bad.

Of course, this has upsides: to some degree, humans need to be able to adapt to
new circumstances and situations, no matter how dire. Our species likely
wouldn’t have got very far – or, at least, wouldn’t have had the emotional
capacity to problem-solve, imagine, and create – if we’d walked around in a
perpetual state of shock and anxiety.

It can also perpetuate a vicious cycle. The study on inner-city violence found that participants were more likely to perpetrate violence if they thought it
was normal, for example. But this applies to larger, more complex issues, too.

If someone doesn’t think climate change is a big deal, why would they be motivated to do anything about it? If their awareness of humanitarian disasters is fading, will they still be as likely to share their concerns with representatives or donate to relevant charities?

When it comes to media consumption, this raises two questions: how can publishers cover a topic without desensitizing their audience to it? And – as a smart, informed media consumer – how can you navigate the news to make sure you’re not running that same risk?

Researchers have been exploring how being exposed to the same news issue over and over affects consumers. One study, for example, found that news consumers were more likely to become annoyed by coverage, and even to avoid it, when they felt like it was repetitive.

It’s not just that viewers crave novelty, the researchers write. It’s also that people get especially annoyed when they perceive that nothing’s changing or improving. “Some users are particularly negative about the lack of progress and long, drawn-out coverage of the issue, which is in part traceable to the
political actors involved”, the researchers write.

…more leaders make minimal progress on an issue, the more bored with hearing
about it people become. Theoretically, this could lead to that issue being
covered less and less – and any pressure for progress on it falling apart, too.

Then there’s the other issue, especially common when viewing news reports of
other people suffering: if we feel too distressed by what we see, it can lead us to feel burnt out and want to shut out the coverage altogether.

When it comes to news consumption, researchers suggest consuming news more
mindfully, such as at more specific times, when feeling overwhelmed by a particular crisis. Given the importance of novelty, I’d also suggest that, to stay well-informed, ensure your !!!media diet is diverse. Even if it is a particular topic or crisis that you want to know more about, !!!expand beyond the same outlet or even type of media. If you’re following the Gaza-Israel war, don’t just doom-scroll breaking news headlines; seek out
foreign policy analyses and first-person essays, watch documentaries, listen to
audio books, read poetry.

And, crucially, consume perspectives from both sides of the war.

…remember that a different angle on the present is to think longer-term.

Perhaps that’s looking backwards, trying to understand how we got here by
swapping out some of your daily news coverage for, say, history books or
documentaries. Or it might mean looking forwards – what might this mean for
tomorrow? – and seeking out analyses that think about what our current decisions might mean for one, 100, and even 1,000 years from now.

…finding emotional distance from circumstances in order to view it with fresh eyes. If something you don’t like about your own country is starting to feel
“normal” to you, for example, you might talk to someone who lives in a
different country, read about how the issue is handled elsewhere or (for those
with the means) even travel abroad.”

Clive Robinson March 17, 2024 6:55 PM

@ ALL,

Any one remember the EncroChat encrypted phones that were a Police plant?

And wonder how any convictions were going?

https://www.yourlocalguardian.co.uk/news/24182572.croydon-dealer-jailed-encrochat-plans-uncovered/

Well “Stephen Dynan” has been awarded 12 years’ imprisonment on Friday, March 8, for admitting “Conspiracy to”,

1, Obtain a firearm
2, Import cocaine
3, Import cannabis
4, Supply cocaine
5, Transfer criminal property
6, Carry out a sophisticated warehouse burglary

Note they are all “Conspiracy to” charges which in all probability means it was just on data from the Backdoored EncroChat phone.

The desired firearm was apparently a “skorpion machine gun”, these are only a little bigger than a hand gun and can easily be concealed under the arm or carried in a belt pouch
they fire at a “stoped down” rate of 850/min and much favoured with certain types of criminal or terrorist.

Often the barrel is threaded and it can be fitted with a “moderator” (silencer) that actually makes it quite quiet in use as well as easy for “two handed” use for greater accuracy.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Škorpion

Apparently a non automatic version is liked in the US as “range toys” or “plinkers” and cost around $750.

I’m told that the full spec versions are currently coming out of the Ukraine War for less than €500.

Jerome March 17, 2024 8:28 PM

@ Clive Robinson

Thank you for your recent response.

Regarding my question about the security of Rasp Pi.

https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2017/09/securing_a_rasp.html

The comments point out, Raspbian OS is the issue more than the hardware

Courtesy of Hacker News:
50 things to do with a software defined radio

https://blinry.org/50-things-with-sdr/

Most curiously, the article points out early on you don’t need to own one.
Other people make theirs accessible, via the internet.

ResearcherZero March 17, 2024 8:31 PM

@lurker

You can step over handcuffs. They also can be removed easily. High security cuffs are much more difficult. Probably he was wearing the less secure version, but not necessarily.

It’s generally a good idea for police to secure weapons on arrest, and on returning to the cop shop. But they often don’t follow procedure and will quite happily turn their back on someone with a loaded weapon on their hip. Easy way to get yourself and colleagues shot.

Once taken from behind, your sidearm becomes their sidearm and your body becomes a shield.
There are many variations on what can go wrong if procedure is not followed. One common mistake is that police turn situations into a hostile encounter when it need not be one, or drastically underestimate the situation, and again fail to keep protocol in mind.

Speculative Concurrent Use-After-Free

‘https://www.vusec.net/projects/ghostrace/

Espionage group targeting organizations in Russia, Germany, Ukraine, the UK, Slovenia, Canada, Australia, and the US with email attachments (img and iso).

“The actor employs sophisticated tactics, such as abusing PowerShell, curl, and Program Compatibility Assistant (pcalua.exe)”

‘https://www.trendmicro.com/en_us/research/24/c/unveiling-earth-kapre-aka-redcurls-cyberespionage-tactics-with-t.html

ResearcherZero March 17, 2024 9:04 PM

@JonKnowsNothing

Buffoons keep releasing pigs here, and there are already millions more than they could possibly ever shoot. Disease carrying pigs, that are no longer afraid of humans and happily breeding in large numbers. Every week I see young piggys routing around on the roadside.

First aid kits and a knife are mandatory for traveling in remote areas. There are a few people around the district who had to chop their own leg off after a log rolled on it.

Luckily we have a small population. Distance makes the spread of infection easier to manage. If someone becomes ill, sometimes no one notices for a week or two if they are missing. Which is perhaps not ideal if you are the one who becomes sick or injured.

Slappy fight in the halls of power.

‘https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/17/us/politics/trump-disinformation-2024-social-media.html

Doctors say, it’s a matter of life and death.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/17/politics/supreme-court-social-media-disinformation-first-amendment-covid-election-2024/index.html

Companies government has been limited from advising on misinformation/disinformation:

Facebook/Meta, Twitter, YouTube/Google, WhatsApp, Instagram, WeChat, TikTok, Sina Weibo, QQ, Telegram, Snapchat, Kuaishou, Qzone, Pinterest, Reddit, LinkedIn, Quora, Discord, Twitch, Tumblr, Mastodon “and like companies.”

‘https://www.npr.org/2023/07/05/1186108696/social-media-us-judge-ruling-disinformation

“TikTok makes it nearly impossible to change what content you see or to alter the algorithm it has decided to use on you. That’s not going to change even if its ownership structure changes.”

‘https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/chuck-todd-big-missing-piece-congress-rushed-tiktok-debate-rcna142959

Unwinding efforts once viewed as critical:

A list of immature, silly and dangerous behaviour conducted by verified adults.
https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/election-deniers-playbook-2024

Reuse of popular audio tracks creates a feedback loop of misinformation:

Misinformation videos may pose a uniquely difficult target for debunking.

‘https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/how-effective-are-tiktok-misinformation-debunking-videos/

ResearcherZero March 17, 2024 9:20 PM

‘You owe a debt, from 20 years ago.’ Court actions have increased by more than %50.

‘https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-18/ato-chases-small-business-debts-insolvencies-to-hit-gfc-levels/103583512

Whiff of Robodebt: “The ATO letters have no detail about how the on-hold debts were allegedly accrued, which appears to conflict with recommendations made by the commonwealth ombudsman in 2009 when dealing with an almost identical issue.”

Some have received debt notices of 55 cents, one at 33 cents.

‘https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/30/ato-on-hold-tax-debt-letters-robodebt-apology

Clive Robinson March 17, 2024 9:30 PM

@ ResearcherZero, lurker,

“You can step over handcuffs. They also can be removed easily. High security cuffs are much more difficult. Probably he was wearing the less secure version, but not necessarily.”

The story is difficult to follow, but apparently he had a vintage colt revolver in an under arm holster for which ammunition is nolonger made.

He was abused as a child and was recognised has having a mental disability.

When he was stopped he was not initially properly searched and his hands cuffed behind his back, after bullets were found in his chest bag.

It’s said that whilst in a police van he somehow got the gun down to his lower back.

On arriving at the police station it was decided a new search was required and he still had his hands cuffed behind his back.

Apparently he may have had hyper extensibility ie “double jointed” and four shots were fired “from the hip”

The first hit the custody officer in the chest, the second in his leg, the third the wall, and the fourth went into the prisoners neck.

Apparently the other two police officers jumped the prisoner after the first shot was fired. How a bullet got into the prisoners neck has not been made public.

The prisoner then suffered brain injury and was operated on resulting in further brain insult and is now mentally disabled and incapable of normal cognitive function or the ability to speak and walk without assistance.

The sentence handed down by the judge is rather surprising, it’s unlikely he can actually go to a normal UK prison as they are not suitable for those with physical and mental disabilities.

Thus I suspect the sentence will be appealed, not that it’s likely to make much difference to the prisoner. Because it looks like from the little information available he will be life long institutionalised any way.

Clive Robinson March 17, 2024 10:03 PM

@ Jerome,

“Regarding my question about the security of Rasp Pi.”

Sorry I thought it was a general enquiry.

My “security view” of all consumer grade OS’s security wise “not fit for purpose”.

In many ways you would be more secure running pre 1995 hardware with no “connectivity” and an OS of that vintage.

The simple fact is anything with a radio chip –which is what the Raspberry Pi’s “Broadcom” chip is,– is decidedly “suspect” security wise… Even if being run without any network or other recognisable communications cables plugged in.

Since Apple and Google “did their thing for C19” their OS’s have had code to “beacon Bluetooth” in various ways, and in the case of Smart Devices WiFi is effectively mandatory.

I’m told that Microsoft Win 11 likewise sees RF chips as “use without user permission” for that “consumer experience”.

To be honest I’m not going to find out as I had such a bad experience with Win 10 and getting rid of it from a couple of laptops that I’ve banished any ‘current’ supported MS OS’s from my personal systems.

As far as I’m concerned Micro$haft are now subject to the,

“100% of everything is crap”

Rule.

As for Network SDR’s yup you can use them and they are very useful for “Radio Engineering” work. But not for computer security work. Because the antenna is “local to the SDR not you”.

ResearcherZero March 17, 2024 11:30 PM

@Clive Robinson

Windows 11 is decidedly less fun than Win 10. There is an upcoming update for Linux to make things a little more easier and secure, but it still is a bit of a hassle to migrate a system that arrives with Windows. Turning off the security “enhancements” in the BIOS makes the process much simpler. Once running another operating system then the device works as one might imagine an out-of-the-box experience, and in a greatly shorter amount of time.

If you do want any of the added security additions, then it is a PITA to set up for a non Windows OS, but then it only takes about the same amount of time that securing Windows does. Though once you have done it a few times, it arguably takes even less time.

American bases and civilian personnel asked to leave Niger…

‘https://apnews.com/article/niger-sahel-us-air-base-a5545b937fbd56dff2114a8b8602b95b

Cause of failure not malicious or intentional.

“likely at or near the subsea network cable landing points”

‘https://www.mainone.net/ghana/blog/2024/03/17/faqs-on-mainone-submarine-outage-2/

13 African Countries Affected By Submarine Cable Cut

‘https://www.submarinecablemap.com/multiselect/submarine-cable?ids=mainone,africa-coast-to-europe-ace,sat-3wasc,west-africa-cable-system-wacs

ResearcherZero March 17, 2024 11:43 PM

“hospital staff are told not to tell the new mother that her baby is about to be removed”

Another stolen generation. Children under 12 months are being removed at ten times the rate of non-Indigenous children, though they make up only 5% of the population.

‘https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-18/first-nations-baby-removals-subject-of-inquiry/103587598

JonKnowsNothing March 18, 2024 12:39 AM

@ResearcherZero , All

re: feral pigs

Feral pigs are a huge problem in USA. Nearly every state has a ginormous population of them and they adapt well to all climates.

They are very dangerous.

Urban folks just do not appreciate how dangerous, until they run into a pack of them. They are highly intelligent and learn fast they can intimidate humans with a couple of jaw clacks, followed up by a serious attack if you do not get the initial message.

In Silicon Valley, there is a mountain ridge that runs along the coast. We have cougars, coyotes, deer and wild pigs. In the high rent sections the mega housing has been built in their territory. The pigs have learned to come down the mountain to get into garbage and sometimes they can invade a store. The cougars follow both the deer and the pigs down the mountain into the urban city.

In Texas, they try to shoot them, but they are very hard to catch and kill. If things go wrong, you have an entire irate herd chomping on you instead.

In my area, there is no restriction on killing them, other than informing a very happy game ranger that you want to kill some. They do not make good eating because the local forage are acorns from the oak trees in this region. It makes the meat bitter. Generally, if anyone is going to kill one, they do it in the spring before the pigs start eating acorns.

In Barcelona Spain, they come down the mountains into the city and terrorize the residents. The sows bring their piglets which make them even more dangerous. Barcelona has a Pig-Patrol unit but the pigs have learned to evade all the standard capture methods.

Some people might remember the German pig that stole a laptop from a picnic area at a nudist park by grabbing a bag she thought had food in it, and the owner raced after her and her piglets.

It did not have a happy ending after the media pictures faded. An ongoing outbreak of ASF in Europe and in Germany had them doing massive culls of all the pigs and wild boars in the area. They ran capture fences and slaughtered all of them. Including the laptop grabbing pig.

In the USA, I think pigs are a bigger problem across the States, but pet trade released pythons and exotic venomous snakes which are thriving from Florida to California. It’s a huge problem because even in areas were there are venomous snakes like rattlesnakes, copperheads, and coral snakes, we are not prepared to find a 20ft python in our yards nor a 10ft cobra hiding under some debris.

ResearcherZero March 18, 2024 2:38 AM

@JonKnowsNothing

You can get them here on the salt flats. Plenty of open space so you can sit in a hide a long way away. But you have to move pretty quickly because the boars come looking for you.

A wild pig tore out all four tires of my truck. Big too. My dogs all ran off and I hid too.

They are the only things that frighten me. Pigs in pig terrain. Pigs are very smart. They know how to avoid traps and they also how to ambush you. You don’t want to get caught with a bad ankle or without a tree to climb if need be. Very hard to get the boars in thick bush.

Most other wild creatures you can avoid disturbing, but wild pigs will sneak up on you.

“They don’t know the right answers,” LeBlanc said. “They want us as a board to sit down and work them out.” To Leblanc this was the essence of American democracy — “compromise,” “late-night conversations” and mutual respect.

“There’s more you should ask before going out and saying, ‘I don’t agree with this ideologically,’” Hendricks advised

This was a version of American democracy that bore little resemblance to the horror show that Green and Barton described each day on their podcast.

‘https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/17/patriot-academy-biblical-citizenship-school-board/

Many say policies in their country would improve if more elected officials were women, people from poor backgrounds and young adults.

https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2024/02/28/representative-democracy-remains-a-popular-ideal-but-people-around-the-world-are-critical-of-how-its-working/

“The elections are an extension of military occupation and of the war itself … rather than an exercise in the democratic franchise.”

Arrests, displacement of families to the front lines and authorities forcing people to write explanations of their refusal to vote.

‘https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-occupied-election-voting-arrests-eb0b0d872cf55e561dc221bbc53d63d4

Lithuania’s intelligence agency announced that the attack on Volkov was likely “Russian organized.”
https://www.irishtimes.com/world/europe/2024/03/13/navalny-ally-leonid-volkov-targeted-in-hammer-attack-in-vilnius/

Mangushev’s widow, Tatyana Azarevich, said these crosses were her husband’s idea.

“that’s all his doing. He tried to create maximum chaos,” she told Systema in January.

‘https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ultranationalists-panic-ukraine-invasion/32833769.html

ResearcherZero March 18, 2024 3:01 AM

@JonKnowsNothing

Like with snakes, if you tangle with pigs you will get tagged, as they move much faster than humans. Pig skin is super tough. Ridiculously so. Even large bullets often don’t stop them. Yowza! Best to stay in the truck, or close to it, so you can make a quick get away.

Winter March 18, 2024 4:08 AM

@JonKnowsNothing

Urban folks just do not appreciate how dangerous, until they run into a pack of them.

The fourth labor of Hercules was catching the Erymanthian boar. Capturing a wild boar in ancient Greece was classified among things like fighting lions and hydra’s. I think the Greek did have a keen understanding of the nature of wild boars and how to approach them, or rather, avoid them.

ResearcherZero March 18, 2024 4:31 AM

There goes one now.

“As soon as you open source everything people will start doing all sorts of crazy things with it. It would be a very quick way to discover how [AI] can go wrong.”

‘https://techmonitor.ai/technology/ai-and-automation/open-source-chatgpt-ai-llm-geoffrey-hinton

Real time “facts” – but “funny” (and wrong).

‘https://x.ai/

“Reliable and systematic ways to measure the danger posed by AI models do not yet exist. In addition to worrying that future AI models may become unruly and deceptive, making them difficult to control, some experts have suggested that even today’s models can help generate dangerous disinformation or produce chemical or biological weapons.”

‘https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-no-choice-open-chatbot-grok/

There is now the potential for Grok-1 to be misused…

‘https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/17/technology/chatbot-xai-code-musk.html

Clive Robinson March 18, 2024 4:56 AM

@ ResearcherZero, JonKnowsNothing,

Re : Hogs as “Ram Raiders”.

“Pig skin is super tough. Ridiculously so. Even large bullets often don’t stop them.”

It’s not just the thick skin.

A friend in Europe hunts “wild pig” as they are what is politely called an “invasive nuisance species”. A description that comes nowhere near close to the environmental damage they do, and they are spreading.

The gun my friend uses is the sort that would smash your shoulder if you are not properly trained, and would more properly be described as “ordinance”.

His comment is that unless you can get a clear shot to the brain you are very much endangering yourself. Because “they don’t drop” even when a bullet goes right through the body.

He tells a story about how he learned to be more cautious, he once put a round through the front shoulder of a sow and ended up having to jump up into a tree as the brut just went into “Ram Rage” mode smashing at the tree untill it finally bled out several minutes later. The tree was so damaged in the assault that it died as well… As my friend points out you can not fire a fifty cal rifle in a tree as you would pop right out. So he now carries a fairly large side arm that as he puts it would pass through a cylinder block of a family car.

But he also cautions against relying on vehicles to hide in as those piggy jaws are like those devices first responders use to cut cars open, and if the pig can get a grip on a vehicle body work it might as well be tin-foil…

Even wolves leave them alone so there are no predator species to keep them “naturally” under control. Except… “they eat their own”… if you wound one it’s friends come round and turn it into “dish of the day”… So they would have no problem leaving only your teeth behind.

Apparently as poison and even exploding bait does not work there is apparently ongoing research into a “genetic solution”. That is if you can not find a big predator then find a micro one such as a pathogen that kills or sterilises them.

I think we can see where that might end up…

But it kind of proves the old,

“Can man create a problem, man can not solve?”

ResearcherZero March 18, 2024 5:25 AM

@Clive Robinson

We would use .303 from a very long distance and .44 if need be for closer proximity.

Even then you need to be a very good shot, keep calm and keep your wits about you.

The only good thing is that there are very few people who want to accompany you. Which is ideal for such situations. The last thing you need is some dopey fool walking out in front.
Some people also go a little nutty in such situations which is both unsafe and unsettling.

High powered rifles can send a round flying in the wrong direction for over a kilometer.
It would be nice if crazed maniacs from any location would take that into consideration.

There are all kinds of crazed maniacs that come down from the city and start blasting in all directions. In the direction of houses for example, or the direction of local tourist spots which might be host to numbers of visiting tourists and innocent busk walkers.

We already have our fair share of crazed maniacs, and don’t need any additional at this time.

Free and customisable “open-source’ AI is not the same as traditional open source code.

Meta for instance but did not release the training data.

‘https://crfm.stanford.edu/open-fms/paper.pdf

But the risk is not theoretical.
https://www.darkreading.com/vulnerabilities-threats/unpatched-critical-vulnerabilities-open-ai-models-to-takeover

Vulnerabilities in AI systems can give attackers unauthorized access to the AI models, and access to the rest of the network.

There is also the risk that a nation state can weaponise models and exploit known and unknown vulnerabilities. There are many new models in the works, which will have bugs.

‘https://www.traficom.fi/sites/default/files/media/publication/TRAFICOM_The_security_threat_of_AI-enabled_cyberattacks%202022-12-12_en_web.pdf

“Once someone releases an “uncensored” version of an unsecured AI system, the original maker of the system is largely powerless to do anything about it.”
https://spectrum.ieee.org/open-source-ai-2666932122

Winter March 18, 2024 5:27 AM

@Clive

“Can man create a problem, man can not solve?”

God seems to be unable to create a rock S/he cannot lift, or so I heard. But man is not God, so he will eventually create a problem that will “solve” mankind.

Note, “Eternal Peace” is the name of a cemetery.

Clive Robinson March 18, 2024 6:51 AM

@ Winter,

Note, “Eternal Peace” is the name of a cemetery.

And apparently part of an “RV Park” name in central Alabama (though why…).

Also raising an eyebrow is,

“A Peace of Heaven Cabins & RV”

In, Vanderpool, Texas.

And similar… Such is the nature of certain types of marketing…

Clive Robinson March 18, 2024 7:27 AM

@ Winter

Somebody I’m aquatinted with who has “An English sense of humour” is doing a “Recreational Vehicle”(RV) tour of the US… and Texas is one of those places with weird sounding RV parks. Apparently they were not attracted to,

“Peace N Quiet RV” in “Gun Barrel City” main street…

According to the add,

“The Newest RV park in Gun Barrel City. Located right on Main Street with EZ access from 175, close to town, Cedar Creek Lake, Activities, and more! Last Updated: 03/13/2024.”

Apparently there is an app especially for RVing giving places activities and attractions like “No Children”, “No Dogs”, “No …”.

For someone like myself who has spent time “living in a hole in the ground under a tarp” such amenities do sound a step up 😉

Winter March 18, 2024 7:46 AM

@Clive
Re: Perpetual Peace

My quote was a joke that originated in Kant’s treatise of the same name.

‘https://www.gutenberg.org/files/50922/50922-h/50922-h.htm

Towards Perpetual Peace
Whether this satirical inscription on a Dutch innkeeper’s sign, on which a churchyard cemetery has been painted, concerns mankind in general, or in particular the rulers of states, who can never be sated of war, or simply the philosophers, who dream this
sweet dream – [is a question that] may be better set aside here.

&ers March 18, 2024 9:33 AM

@ALL

One Estonian govt institution got breached.
Reason – Ivanti VPN.

hxxps://www.ria.ee/media/3920/download

Page 2 there. But they don’t tell who it was.

There isn’t very much of them who use Ivanti though.

Statistics Estonia publicly states that they use it. Use Google translate.

hxxps://www.stat.ee/et/konfidentsiaalsete-andmete-kasutamise-juhend

I’d say – publishing that kind of info on the web is just asking for troubles. Remember “Stealing the network” book series where h3X searched
printers from the university web pages? OSINT is a very powerful tool.

Clive Robinson March 18, 2024 11:37 AM

&ers, ALL,

Re : What can be found with OSInt.

“OSINT is a very powerful tool.”

Isn’t it just…

We’ve seen one or two post give just a taste here in the past.

The one that sticks in my head was that drunken lawyer for Trump’s “My Election was Stolen” court case nonsense.

From just a photo of her glugging cheap wine in her kitchen they got not just the address, nor just the busses that stopped outside her house, but an entire video walkthrough of the house on a real estate agents site… And sure enough “same kitchen”.

Yup “Down Town Sydney” got her score card well and truly marked…

In what appeared to be ten minutes of work and if I remember correctly from the back and forth just a few “front page Google searches”.

vas pup March 18, 2024 6:50 PM

Supreme Court wary of limiting government contact with social media platforms
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68582951

“The Supreme Court has heard arguments in a case that will define how far the US government can go in attempting to tackle disinformation online.

Louisiana and Missouri brought the case, arguing that the government’s contact with social media platforms should be limited.

But the court’s nine justices appeared unconvinced during arguments on Monday.

The case is seen as a test of how much the government can pressure social media
companies to remove content.

It began after President Joe Biden’s administration pushed platforms to remove
posts about the Covid pandemic and the 2020 election which it said were false.

On Monday, some justices expressed a reluctance to support a lower court’s
ruling that would severely limit government interactions with social media
companies. That ruling is on pause while the Supreme Court considers the case.

Mr Aguinaga argued that emails to social media executives from White House
officials constituted illegal pressure and amounted to censorship.

In the messages, the Biden administration flagged popular posts on the biggest
social media platforms that promoted – among other things – misinformation
about Covid vaccines and false claims of widespread voter fraud during the 2020
presidential election.

Some of the emails were sent to senior social media executives such as Meta’s
president of global affairs and former UK Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg.

Lower court judges have found there is evidence that the government overstepped
its authority in its contacts with the social media companies.”

1: What constitute misinformation? Objective criteria?
2: That is not WH authority to do this but should be challenged in the court by providing evidence by both sides pro and contra that is basically misinformation.
3: When you have actual mixed of 80% true information and 20% misinformation by application of criteria in 1: only those 20% could be challenged and those who intentionally put misinformation should be made liable.
4: Is providing only one side information and suppressing other side information to form bias make information disinformation in same way like lying is provide wrong information and withhold true information?

AL March 18, 2024 8:28 PM

@Clive

As noted deities do not actually exist so “God is out”
Come on, don’t be obtuse. “God” is the same as natural emergence.
But although man was responsible not in the way you are implying.
That’s wishful thinking. While the circumstances you cite creates possible causes for Covid-19, those circumstance do not overcome the issue that the virus showed up in a venue that contained the world’s largest laboratory that specializes in making novel coronaviruses and contained a virus amplifier that utilized a “serial passage” process containing human cells which results in the virus becoming extremely contagious in humans. C19 had the characteristics of a virus that this lab produces on a usual and ordinary basis. When this virus showed up, it showed a run-ready contagiousness in humans that didn’t need any ramping up. That circumstance is best explained by that “serial passage” process and makes it the “most likely” explanation.

So, while the things you say may be true, it doesn’t dent enough the odds, or likelihood that the dominant explanation is a man-made virus. I think you’re smart enough to know this.

And I think you know that the legal implications of a man-made virus are crimes against humanity. That’s why these scientists cling to “beyond reasonable doubt”, because that standard couldn’t be reached any more than natural emergence could reach a
“beyond a reasonable doubt” standard.

I think we’re close to 90-10 on the odds of it being man made. We could debate on that, 60-40, 70-30. But the idea that because man has invaded habitats that results in C19 is entirely speculative. It will cause trouble somewhere, someplace, but it is not likely that this explanation supersedes the likelihood of the lab as source. Like I say, that is in the area of wishful thinking.

One thing that is clear to me is, a lab experiment gone awry results in crimes against humanity. I may not have the highest standards, but is one area I don’t want to be on the wrong side on. I have a concern that the proponents of natural emergence that know that it isn’t natural emergence think that the world should just accept this “mulligan” because the long term benefits of this type of research outweighs the 7 million fatalities. That’s this “elite think” where the elite think they “got” this one. I think an extremely bright light needs to shine on this issue. Let them convince us by citing all the benefits yielded so far by gain of function research.

I’ll say it again – the concept of “beyond a reasonable doubt” is to protect individuals from the state. It is not there to protect the state.

I watched this little show, or skit that the Biden administration put on. The first agency thinks one thing, the next agency thinks otherwise. The third agency does something else, and the fourth piggy went home, as the government pivoted from the concept that coronavirus was natural emergence (and any other explanation was conspiracy theory) to an official posture of befuddlement. That was psyops folks. These agencies aren’t in disagreement. The more and more one looks at this, the more and more it becomes clear that on day 1, there was people in the US that knew what was going on, particularly in the Pentagon.

When you build a house, the first thing you start with is the foundation, and the “foundation” in this one is DNA analysis. So, when they promised to release the documentation, the first thing I looked for is DNA results, because differing DNA results could result in agency differences. But, they didn’t put any of the DNA out there, and I don’t believe for a second that there is any agency disagreement on the origin of C19.

I think we have a crimes against humanity problem out there folks. (It doesn’t have to be a deliberate discharge for that situation to exist.)

Winter March 19, 2024 2:12 AM

@AL

So, while the things you say may be true, it doesn’t dent enough the odds, or likelihood that the dominant explanation is a man-made virus.

But then give us the odds. Tell us the probabilities that it is not natural.

All we hear is the sound of hand waving.

I have absolutely no reason to believe you know anything at all about virology or evolution, nor about molecular biology or what happens in biological labs.

Show us first you actually know what you are talking about.

ResearcherZero March 19, 2024 4:01 AM

@AL

It was only proven very recently that Heliobacter pylori is a cause of peptic ulcers, although H. pylori was discovered in water sources many decades earlier.

A common cause of stomach ulcers (peptic ulcers), H. pylori infection may be present in more than half the people in the world. Most people don’t realize they have H. pylori infection because they never get sick from it. This usually happens during childhood.

(Drinking out of wells that birds crap in is a great way to catch it.)

We only identified that we have been living with viruses recently. We still have not identify many of the bacteria and viruses that naturally occur in water sources you could find quite close to your own home. This is why we treat water before distributing it.

No viruses are man made. They all occur naturally in the environment and mutate naturally at a rate humans could never even come close to accomplishing in even the distant future. Germ warfare for example, uses viruses that are already infectious to humans.

The only contribution humans make is that we destroy the natural environments in which some of these viruses normally occur, forcing them into our own environments. Other viruses have been part of our societies since we first started farming livestock thousands of years ago, and they may have been a part of human life for a much longer time still.

People can become paralyzed and quite possibly crippled by poliovirus, or incur encephalitis, pneumonia or death due to measles. These viruses have been with us for thousands of years, yet we only discovered them last century.

https://theconversation.com/measles-is-one-of-the-deadliest-and-most-contagious-infectious-diseases-and-one-of-the-most-easily-preventable-224493

“The majority of Americans oppose anti-democratic actions and political violence Throughout the year, support for political violence within both parties was always below 4%.”

The researchers also found that both Democrats and Republicans overestimate the opposing party’s support for norm violations, in some cases by four to five times.

‘https://phys.org/news/2024-03-majority-americans-anti-democratic-behavior.html

The leaders never hang up their high-vis vests. There is a difference between “campaigning” and “governing” — and it is exhausting for the public.

“This is debilitating for decision-making.”
https://theconversation.com/if-politicians-want-more-trust-from-voters-they-need-to-start-behaving-with-civility-and-respect-99010

“If the facts are against you, you argue the law.”

‘https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/03/18/poll-conviction-trump-2024-elections-00147338

“Differences in income are a powerful social stressor that is increasingly rendering societies dysfunctional. For example, bigger gaps between rich and poor are accompanied by higher rates of homicide and imprisonment. The costs of inequality are also excruciatingly high for governments.”

‘https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00723-3

ResearcherZero March 19, 2024 4:29 AM

@AL

The public does not see the real political conventions that take place. They are only invited to public events. The messaging comes from public relations – perception management. Whipping people up using frightening and emotionally targeted messages.

Basically, some of our politicians are very poor communicators. They deliberately, upset and alarm people to get the public’s attention, purely for their own ends. Politicians often don’t talk to everyone, instead they target their local electorate. Because of their desire to get elected, and raise money, some will very happily lie.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. used to smash down white lines right in the view of security at the local US embassy. He would literally say anything to try and impress people. His girlfriends were regularly so embarrassed by his behaviour, that they would apologise to everyone repeatedly. But Kennedy Jr. is not the only politician like that.

Robert’s behaviour is not so different from others in the political scene.

‘https://www.wired.com/story/robert-f-kennedy-jr-aaron-rodgers-male-vote/

Charisma’s Influence

‘https://news.asu.edu/20230711-new-study-shows-how-charisma-affects-politicians-ability-influence-public-behavior

“deliberate indifference to others’ pain, which is particularly cruel when one could take actions that could alleviate others’ suffering but chooses not to.”
https://academic.oup.com/isagsq/article/2/2/ksab048/6521894

ResearcherZero March 19, 2024 4:47 AM

@AL

Both the major political parties want us to see the other side as different, to get our vote. It is a tactic, which at it’s worse – actually makes life more difficult for all of us.

It stops us from carefully considering what is taking place. Distracts us, and divides us.

Stories about viruses, terrorists and looming disaster are fed out by Public Relations to keep us from thinking rationally, and to concentrate us into easily targeted groups for advertising and campaigning purposes. Promises to alleviate the fears that they created.

We seek external validation when we act in ways to earn the “goodwill” and approval of significant others. That is, we can experience rewards from the social validation extended to us by others. In the context of turnout, an individual may vote to gain the approval of those socially close such as family, friends, and colleagues.

First they have to make us afraid of something, or someone…

they can hold on to power with a minoritarian base that is ideally geographically distributed

“What that means is that the party that controls the legislature is not beholden to any civic obligations toward parts of the public that are powerless to remove them.”

It severs the link of accountability that is necessary for democracy.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/01/politics/cruelty-adam-serwer-book-race-deconstructed-newsletter/index.html

“Cruelty can also be furtive and insidious. … suffering caused not only by malice but also by indifference, or by convenience, or even by ostensibly good intentions. They describe the kind of cruelty that alienates and isolates, gliding along the rails of obliviousness, or hidden by feelings of shame.”

‘https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/21/books/cruelty-is-point-adam-serwer.html

ResearcherZero March 19, 2024 5:16 AM

@AL

Medical research is studying phages to try and find new ways to prevent disease.

Viruses outnumber humans 400 trillion to one. Yet pandemics are rare.

Some viruses can actually kill bacteria, while others can fight against more dangerous viruses. So like protective bacteria (probiotics), we have several protective viruses in our body. Bacteriophages (or “phages”) are viruses that infect and destroy specific bacteria.

https://www.princeton.edu/news/2022/01/06/why-are-some-viruses-harmless-and-others-deadly-aj-te-velthuis-case

Clive Robinson March 19, 2024 6:00 AM

@ Winter, ResearcherZero,

Re : @AL and domain knowledge.

Your above comments,

“I have absolutely no reason to believe you know anything at all about virology or evolution, nor about molecular biology or what happens in biological labs.

Likewise he appears to have no knowledge of basic maths and statistics, epidemiology, and even basic science you would expect a high schooler to know.

As for evolution and religion let us leave that out of your challenge to at @AL of,

Show us first you actually know what you are talking about.”

It should prove quick as when I read @AL’s,

“When you build a house, the first thing you start with is the foundation, and the “foundation” in this one is DNA analysis. So, when they promised to release the documentation, the first thing I looked for is DNA results, because differing DNA results could result in agency differences. But, they didn’t put any of the DNA out there, and I don’t believe for a second that there is any agency disagreement on the origin of C19.”

I thought,

“Oh dear here we go again…”

And it also becomes clear why you have your doubts with regards @AL’s “knowledge v rote rhetoric” and potential cognitive bias drum banging.

@AL,

Some basic reading for you,

1, ‘https://sciencing.com/virus-dna-4058.html

2, ‘https://www.scripps.edu/covid-19/science-simplified/parts-of-a-coronavirus/index.html

Read the second one carefully, it’s written for lay people so they don’t ask / say daft things in a school classroom setting.

Then read,

3, ‘https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus

You will see that Cronovirus are all part of the “Realm” –grouping– of Riboviria what does that tell you about your “foundation hypothesis”? And,

“… the first thing I looked for is DNA results, because differing DNA results could result in agency differences. But, they didn’t put any of the DNA out there…”

Not surprising as to why really.

Winter March 19, 2024 7:22 AM

@Clive

“But, they didn’t put any of the DNA out there…”

Not sure what is meant by this, but here are three random papers presenting the DNA sequence of the C19 samples:

‘https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7180649/
(2020 Apr 24)

‘https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7293463/
(2020 Jun 13)

‘https://news.mit.edu/2021/map-sars-cov-2-genome-0511
(May 11, 2021)

Clive Robinson March 19, 2024 8:35 AM

@ Winter,

The clue is in “Riboviria” that Ribo prefix tells you something.

As for the three papers you give they say,

1, “genetic sequencing” of “Coronaviruses are unsegmented single-stranded RNA viruses”

2, “Enveloped viruses, having a positive single-stranded RNA genome”

3, “The SARS-CoV-2 genome consists of nearly 30,000 RNA bases”

For all the power of Genetic sequencing you can not provide information on what is not there…

Winter March 19, 2024 10:28 AM

@Clive

For all the power of Genetic sequencing you can not provide information on what is not there…

The whole conspiracy theory is in line with every other epidemic.

AIDS was blamed on US experiments and biological warfare. Health personnel were accused of spreading ebola and murdered in West Africa. Witches and religious minorities were blamed for epidemics throughout history.

Basically, an epidemic causes death and destruction, we, the righteous people, did nothing wrong. Therefore, evil foreigners must have caused the epidemic out of pure deviousness.

The only blank to fill ins is the name of the foreigners.

fib March 19, 2024 11:08 AM

@ Clive Robinson, Solar activity buffs

I’m not s doomsayer by any measure, but as the nasty looking AR3615 rolls into view, I can’t help but think about how it seems to have the perfect look and timing to merge and grow, exploding into a major CME as it approaches the western limb.

Which leads me to think about the transience of things. Next Tuesday? Our frail and clueless electron-based could be gone.

Think I’ll go outside, take a fresh breath and touch the grass.

https://spaceweather.com/

JonKnowsNothing March 19, 2024 11:13 AM

ALL

re: sports, enhanced sports, high tech enhanced sports

This is a thorny subject with lots of prickly parts to it. There is a suggestion of a new type of competition where the athletes in various sports are not penalized for using enhancements like drugs. The drug-free sports organizations are appalled.

It does bring up a number of quandaries about our view of sports and what is and isn’t considered an enhancement.

Behind all of modern sports is a lot of high tech stuff, in theory it’s the science of bio-mechanics. Blood profiles, muscle composition, tailored training routines, and high tech add-ons such as “tech designed spring return material footwear” given only to the most elite of long distance runners in marathons.

There are several reasons why only the Elite Runners get this enhanced footwear:

  • The other 99% of the runners do not stand a chance of breaking a record
  • The population in general will shell out mega-$$$ to buy it from the sports shoe specialty stores making the Sports-Corps mega-profits.

Sports are big business and high-tech has a big spot in that arena.

  • High tech golf clubs with extra whip action on the shaft driving the ball many yards farther.
  • High tech golf balls with special aerodynamic contours that fly farther than others

Combined, the high tech golf clubs and high tech aerodynamic balls, bring people to see big name professional golfers to watch tournaments.

High tech tennis rackets shifted the entire game of tennis. The development of light weight frames with larger sweet spot and new stringing methods made powerhouse tennis possible.

So high tech is involved in nearly every sport.

So is medicine.

The supplement industry would likely collapse if players pro, amateur and the general population could not chug mega amounts of “natural” substances.

The Elites get access to the types of medicine and training analysis that ordinary people do not get, all in the search for the next record.

Sports does not invest in Losers.

There are lots of aspects but the current thorn is: What is Enhanced?

On the surface it’s anyone using something on the official verboten lists.

Blood, urine and other body markers are checked many times a year to verify the person didn’t take anything on that list. If something is discovered, shyte happens. If something is retested, going years back and it crosses a defined line, shyte happens. There’s a lot of shyte in sports.

The curious part of this torn is that once shyte happens, that person is barred from sport and of course, lots of epithets are used about that. Many Elites are getting tagged by crossing the line either intentionally or accidentally; the results are the same: shyte.

For people engaged in sports there is an intense desire to compete. Removing them from official competitions does not reduce this aspect of human behavior. Perhaps a separate forum of competition is a solution.

Sports and what is and isn’t allowed changes. However, one aspect that is rarely defined is the social aspect of rankings.

Paraphrased

  • It pays to be a winner
  • Second place is first loser

  • Third place you were not a contender but you got close

High tech is in every part of the thorn bush.

lurker March 19, 2024 2:18 PM

@ReasearcherZero
“Both the major political parties …”

Us and Them again, forcing the political field to be bipolar. No room for minor parties. And every time the treasury benches change hands, the flip-flop of policy changes slows down business and society. Some of us would like the stability of a Five Year Plan.

Clive Robinson March 19, 2024 7:25 PM

@ Winter,

“The whole conspiracy theory is in line with every other epidemic.”

It was not a conspiracy theory I was talking about but the simple provable truth.

The thing about conspiracy theories is they only appear to be based on truth. They are either some “held to be true” falsehood that gets twisted in some way or some faux truth that can be neither proved or disproved based on religious type cult belief systems.

Corona viruses are not DNA based but RNA based, so can not have a DNA sequence. So can not have been DNA sequenced.

So claiming it’s all XXX because labs/science have not produced a DNA sequence only shows one of two things,

1, @AL does not know what they are talking about and has no relevant domain knowledge.
2, @AL is deliberately creating a falsehood hoping to create cognitive bias in others based on their lack of knowledge.

Out of politeness and that it appears to be a common issue, I’m assuming the first.

What others decide is upto them and their point of view.

Clive Robinson March 19, 2024 8:58 PM

@ fib,

Re : It’s going to happen sometime.

“I’m not s doomsayer by any measure, but as the nasty looking AR3615 rolls into view, I can’t help but think about how it seems to have the perfect look and timing to merge and grow, exploding into a major CME as it approaches the western limb.”

Why stop yourself having the fun of being a doomsayer 😉

After all if not this week coming then some other week, it’s getting ever closer, it is inevitable it will happen, it is a foregone conclusion.

The only three questions of relevance will be,

1, Just how bad will it be?
2, Can we mitigate the effects?
3, Can we get sufficient warning?

The answers are,

1, Unknown.
2, Upto a point.
3, If we look in the right direction.

The thing is it’s not just CMEs from our own Sun in some respects they are effectively benign.

What we should worry about are certain types of stella event that behave more like an EMP than a CME. We know not only can they happen but some are powerful enough not just to kill every surface organism, but also strip off the Earth’s atmosphere etc.

Anyway, just in case this current solar cycle maximum does send us back to the horse buggy era, let me say

“It’s been a blast!” 😉

JonKnowsNothing March 19, 2024 11:25 PM

@Clive, All

re: “held to be true”

In The No. 1 Ladies’ Detective Agency series by Alexander McCall Smith, the leading characters, when over reaching on a point, often exchange:

  • Oh, that is very well known…

My editions were narrated by Lisette Lecat. Her voicing of Mma Grace Makutsi is a unique pleasure as the companion to Mma Ramotswe, sporting her 97% score, large glasses and refrain:

  • Oh, THAT is VERY well known

===

ht tps://en.wi kipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_McCall_Smith

ht tps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_McCall_Smith_bibliography#The_No._1_Ladies’_Detective_Agency_series

ResearcherZero March 20, 2024 12:52 AM

@Clive Robinson

They are passing a new law in Canada to prevent large manufacturers using platform locks.
It is always helpful when you can actually attach equipment, and not have to spend more.

Horses are a lot more fun to hang out with than my family. Not that they bother to visit.
A buggy would sure keep it that way, and that would make my day. But farming is a bit crap though without a tractor. Slashing sucks without a tractor, cultivating is even worse.

Seeding, heading, making hay without a tractor? F–k that s–t! Food may get a tad pricey.

Personally I don’t see the sun being a problem. It’s more likely some d–khead will start a trade war, or another foolish decision that creates monopolies which choke farmers dead.

Then everyone will sit around scratching their noggins wondering what happened. People will say it’s the free market working as intended as they move out of their house into a tent.👍🏻

  • surprise, surprise

“Experts say using a fake person would likely violate the law.”

Registered Agents Inc has offices in every state in the US, a well known haven for money laundering. An entirely fabricated persona was used by Dan Keen to alter Registered Agent Inc.’s own registration. Even the recruiters of new employees had fake names.

There is no requirement for any code of ethics, and very little regulation

‘https://www.wired.com/story/registered-agents-inc-fake-personas/

ResearcherZero March 20, 2024 1:04 AM

@Clive

Disabling cyberattacks are striking water and wastewater systems throughout the United States.

‘https://arstechnica.com/security/2024/03/critical-us-water-systems-face-disabling-cyberattacks-white-house-warns/

Russian malware kicking off again…

The ELF binary (x86) targets file systems and storage device files (Unsorted Block Image and RAID)

‘https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/new-acidpour-data-wiper-targets-linux-x86-network-devices/

dstr was also a process used by VPNFilter

“It’s important to note, however, that since the malware is modular in nature, it can be easily recompiled to target any other device. The samples we’ve obtained work in the conditions mentioned in this report, but the malware actors seem ready to target any other router model or brand.”
https://www.trendmicro.com/en_us/research/22/c/cyclops-blink-sets-sights-on-asus-routers–.html

In many cases, someone else was responsible for setting up the device for the user, such as the company that they bought it from, or their ISP.

‘https://www.trendmicro.com/en_gb/research/21/a/vpnfilter-two-years-later-routers-still-compromised-.html

“Specifically, these destructive commands overwrote key data in flash memory on the modems, rendering the modems unable to access the network, but not permanently unusable.”

The attack targeted management commands on a large number of residential modems simultaneously.

‘https://news.viasat.com/blog/corporate/ka-sat-network-cyber-attack-overview

Defending against this threat is extremely difficult due to the nature of devices.

https://www.sentinelone.com/labs/acidrain-a-modem-wiper-rains-down-on-europe/

If infected:

Reset to factory defaults, reboot and check that devices have the latest firmware.

It is critical that you do not restore a backup image, or either save or restore a configuration file.

(The owners of these IoT devices often need to manually go to their vendor’s website, download a firmware file, then upload it to the device.)

https://blog.talosintelligence.com/vpnfilter/

ResearcherZero March 20, 2024 2:19 AM

@Clive

Apart from floods and places currently on fire again, we were lucky this year.

Hopefully we get a little more rain here over the next month or two.

Best not to jump from the old rope swing at a few of the local water reservoirs. Less you land a good twenty feet from the water’s edge and break your legs. There is a little water.

“There could be threats to critical infrastructure and food supplies as rising temperatures affect crops and fish stocks.”

‘https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-19/australias-climate-score-down-but-also-dodged-a-bullet/103601838

Natural hazards may increase economic inequalities in Australia

‘https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41885-024-00142-8

Winter March 20, 2024 4:48 AM

@Clive

Corona viruses are not DNA based but RNA based, so can not have a DNA sequence. So can not have been DNA sequenced.

Things are more complicated, they always are with viruses.

RNA is rather unstable (every organism sheds loads of enzymes to break it down to fight viruses). Therefore, it is an option to first transcribe the RNA back to DNA and then to do the sequencing. But you are right that the correct way to publish this sequence is to use the underlying RNA sequence.

But you rarely get a single sequence, you get a number of variants even in a single host. A “reference” genome is then deposited in a database. For instance, this one:
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 isolate Wuhan-Hu-1, complete genome
NCBI Reference Sequence: NC_045512.2
‘https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/NC_045512.2

A genome sequence is about as useful as an isolated bit-string. Without context it tells you very little. Therefore, genomes are extensively compared with all other known sequences to see what part is doing what function and where it originated in evolution. Viruses are renowned for picking up genetic fragments from hosts and other organisms they encounter in their hosts.

Any attempts to evaluate the probability of certain sequences appearing, as is often done in these conspiracy theories, would require knowing where the ancestors of the current virus lived and whom they met. Currently, that is not even speculating, it is no more than just-so stories along the lines of Rudyard Kipling’s How the elephant got his trunk.

Clive Robinson March 20, 2024 6:31 AM

@ Winter,

Re : Correlation, causation and the question of dependence.

Moving on from @AL’s comments,

“A genome sequence is about as useful as an isolated bit-string. Without context it tells you very little. Therefore, genomes are extensively compared…”

And the results effectively just “observations” and in “high complexity environments” easy to get wrong. Statistics only works on bulk testing and the trends are likewise bulk. And it’s easy to miss the fact that it’s gravity that allows a candle to burn…

Disease is way worse as the complexity is way higher as things happen they change the things they effect so running tests repeatedly does not work as it does with gravity that is effectively unchanging.

Which brings into the frame the vexed question of ethics as tried out with the hypothetical “Trolley Dilemma”. It’s interesting to note just how fine “the hair splitting” will go,

https://theconversation.com/the-trolley-dilemma-would-you-kill-one-person-to-save-five-57111

We actually got to the point with C19 of authorising such otherwise unethical things as deliberately infecting people knowing that some would almost certainly be killed in the process…

Why?

Because the “self entitled” greed of a few caused the zoonotic transfer in the first place…

But if I was to suggest the obvious solution you and I both know what the result would most likely be…

Winter March 20, 2024 7:22 AM

@Clive

Which brings into the frame the vexed question of ethics as tried out with the hypothetical “Trolley Dilemma”.

Ethics, as a rule set, is undecidable like any other axiomatic system.

The point of the trolley Dilemma’s is not to decide the dilemma’s, but to find out empirically how people do it.

The outcome was/is very instructive. Humans are more willing to do the logical thing by not acting than by acting.

If you have to save N people by throwing someone on the tracks, people won’t do it. However, the same people are much more willing to pull a lever to switch tracks and get one person killed instead of five.

We actually got to the point with C19 of authorising such otherwise unethical things as deliberately infecting people knowing that some would almost certainly be killed in the process…

That is actually the ethical question in every single medical drug/treatment trial. There would be no effective treatments if we did not do punt people in a risk of getting not the best treatment.

Sometimes, this does involve infecting people.

This vexing ethical problem is solved by making trials voluntary, with full transparency about the risks, and minimizing harm. The question becomes really tricky when volunteers get paid.

Clive Robinson March 20, 2024 11:02 AM

@ Winter,

Maybe third time lucky with this reply and the auto-mod…

Re : Ethics and morals difference?

“Ethics, as a rule set, is undecidable like any other axiomatic system.”

Another undecidable appears to be the difference between morals and ethics.

When I was younger it appeared so simple, morals were something “you had” and based on your personal perspective or point of view. Ethics were however the abstracted rules of the broader societal view. As such ethics were the start of the formalisation turned the rules into that which became more formal as regulation and legislation.

These days much appears turned on it’s head. Legislation is all to often purchased by well funded entities through the likes of lobbyists. As such the resulting legislation is not at all representative of society but at best “special interest groups” looking for advantage over others in society. At worst, well funded groups or even individuals, actively seeking to harm society on what is little more than a notion or whim. The more self entitled the pay master then the more harm they wish to purchase.

Worse modern day philosophers appear to want to wipe out any distinction between morals and ethics and in effect make one of the words effectively redundant.

Ordinarily such a linguistic change would be fairly normal and not really worthy of comment.

But this attempt at eradication of a difference appears to be quite deliberate and in effect organised.

Thus the questions arise of

1, By whom?
2, For what reason?
3, Who gains benefit?
4, Who looses?
5, What they loose?

There are other questions such as stopping and reversing etc. But the problem has to first be understood.

Winter March 20, 2024 12:47 PM

@Clive

As such ethics were the start of the formalisation turned the rules into that which became more formal as regulation and legislation.

I make a definite and clear distinction between moral, ethical, and legal.

First of all, “Legal” has little to do with either ethics or morals. Some morals are enshrined in law, but that are most often not the best laws. The law’s “morals” are not your “morals”.

We see that now in the US where women are denied control over their own body and you can legally be killed when you do want to be killed, but you are not allowed to end your own life when you really want to.

Furthermore, ethics are personal, my ethics, while morals are social, our morals.

JonKnowsNothing March 20, 2024 2:18 PM

@Clive, @Winter, All

re: A high tech conundrum challenging moral, ethical, and legal pov

I don’t think there are too many people using Uber-type gig worker services that are not aware of the exploitation involved. Whether it is getting a ride from the airport or getting a meal delivered, the gig workers get fractional payment while the Uber-type company gets the lion’s share. Even if you leave a generous tip, the Uber-type company often commandeers this payment for themselves. You, as the consumer, do not know that the gig workers didn’t get your largess.

A MSM report on gig workers in USA (1)

Minneapolis, Minnesota, on 7 March 2024, after city council voted to pass a measure that would increase wages

1 May, would establish a minimum pay of $1.40 per mile and $0.51 cents per minute for rideshare drivers, with a $5 per ride minimum.

Uber and Lyft threaten to leave the region in response

Uber and Lyft are lobbying at the State level to block the City rule.

Republicans in the State Minnesota legislature have already introduced a bill to pre-empt the regulations in Minneapolis.

[Driver response to the threat]

if Uber and Lyft ultimately leave, they would only be taking software with them and claimed other startups, companies and taxi cab companies have already expressed interest in trying to replace them.

The drivers are here. Their cars are here. They’re not leaving.

As consumers we have become prisoners to Uber-Lyft gig economy. We think we are getting a bargain, so our ethics, morals get short circuited just so we can get a ride from the airport.

The other high-tech problem is that Uber-Lyft have avoided capital expenditure for some years. They do provide leasing services (rent seeking) but they do not own the means of production. They actually own nothing of importance.

It’s a very vulnerable place to be, but one directly linked to Austerity-Profit-Outsourcing economic theory where corporations do not own their own capital investments. It’s the principle cause of Economic Shocks.

The gig-economy is not a sustainable model. However, the Austerity-Profit model does not require sustainable production for the future, it only requires Cash Today.

===
1)

HAIL Warning

https://www.theg uard ian.com/us-news/2024/mar/20/uber-lyft-leaving-minneapolis-minnesota-minimum-wage

  • Minneapolis drivers protested wages – and won. Lyft and Uber are choosing to leave the city rather than pay up

Winter March 20, 2024 2:44 PM

@JonKnowsNothing

Uber and Lyft threaten to leave the region in response

In more and more countries, gig economy workers get employee protection.

In general, the rule is more and more that if you work for one company on a regular basis and have to work on the company’s rules, you are an employee.

Employee protection is meaningful in many countries.

And, be realistic, gig economy jobs are rarely indispensable. If they are really important, they can be paid decent wages.

JonKnowsNothing March 20, 2024 3:39 PM

All

re: My ROBO-deny

There are lots of ROBO algorithms designed to auto-deny applicants. They are the mirror to CLAWBACK algorithms that demand payment for some obscure and undefined historical over payment.

RL tl;dr

History: I have a medical condition that requires a very expensive drug which retails for $10,000 USD/month and discounts at $5,000 USD/month.

For the past years I’ve been approved for a Medical Assistance Program that covered my drugs and medical costs. This is a partnership program with Medicare, Drug Providers and Health Insurance Hospitals and Groups. Medicare has specific rules about Catastrophic Medical Costs at which point costs are waived.

  • All discounted or waived costs are paid for by Medicare

I am by definition within the Catastrophic Medical Cost tier.

This year my application award was for 50% of costs.

  • 50% of $5,000 = $2,500/mo drug cost out of pocket

The application is a ROBO-deny application. It is based on a hard cap for each tier of award.

Part of this hard cap is a change in definition of the tiers of coverage. During COVID many services and support systems were more flexible in the tiers and many people, families, children, elderly were all helped by the tiny amount of flex in these tier ceilings. Since the end of COVID support, the tiers thresholds and ceilings have been reduced, sending thousand of people back into poverty. (Austerity)

In my case, my basic pension is $14 USD/month over this year’s ceiling.

That $14 was enough to trigger the ROBO-deny algorithm.

While the system has all my medical records and Rx costs, the ROBO-deny was based solely on income as defined by 2024 allotment groups.

It is a system designed to exclude as many on first pass, and then see who complains by filing an Appeal.

Everything is On-Line of course, and talking with a Live Person (hopefully not an AI Bot) indicated they have no control in the system. As with other ROBO-CLAWBACKS the person on the phone can do Nothing.

The Appeal uses the same input form as the Initial Application. It has the same tick boxes and same minimal layout. No one is reading this form, it is strictly machine readable, there is no open text block for comments.

There are 2 outcomes from the appeal or perhaps 3. (Y, N, Retracted)

Clive Robinson March 20, 2024 4:09 PM

@ ALL,

I refer to the owner of a media empire as Rupert “the bare faced lier” Murdoch and one of his past senior editors as just “The Dragon Queen”.

And people wonder why, well it’s because he lied in court, and she was a spousal abuser amongst other crimes.

Well here is an update on them both separately and jointly liable,

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-68615789

In it you will read of a number of things security related including the mysterious disappearance from a secured repository of an evidence containing hard drive that had been in the dragon queens computer.

lurker March 20, 2024 7:53 PM

Spy vs. Spy

MSM is coyly (so far) not saying whodunnit, but

It faulted the GCSB for agreeing in 2010 to host the system:
without any due diligence
without full visibility
with inadequate record-keeping
without adequate training, support or guidance staff
with negligible awareness of the system at a senior level within the GCSB;

Hang on, I thought they were supposed to be on our side …

‘https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/512310/foreign-agency-ran-spy-operation-out-of-gcsb-for-years

ResearcherZero March 20, 2024 7:53 PM

“There was one time, he said, ‘You know, we’re all dirty. We all moved boxes.’

‘https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/11/politics/takeaways-cnn-exclusive-interview-trump-employee-5-mar-a-lago/index.html

Other boxes. (speculation and perhaps some vague detail)

‘https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/12/theres-new-reason-think-trump-still-has-classified-documents/

Trump should have been fluent in the laws safeguarding classified materials and known it was sensitive national defense information.

‘https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-get-intelligence-briefings-classified-documents-criminal-trial-rcna142385

Letter asking about missing material:

‘https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/08/23/us/politics/national-archives-letter-trump-fbi.html

Trump oversaw the packing process himself.
https://www.justsecurity.org/83034/tracker-evidence-of-trumps-knowledge-and-involvement-in-retaining-mar-a-lago-documents/

“The President does not have discretion to categorize a Presidential record as a personal record.”

Only during his time in office does a President have the right to go through his records to separate what may be ‘personal records’ of his, from official records within the scope of the Presidential Records Act.

(and must engage with NARA to make a request for change of Presidential to Personal)

‘https://www.archives.gov/press/press-releases/2023/nr23-016

ResearcherZero March 20, 2024 8:05 PM

@Clive

Re: “Rebekah Brooks, and owner Mr Murdoch had known about hacking by early 2011”

When Rebekah Brooks was on IRC, along with Coulson asking how to destroy evidence and how not to get busted for it?

“The tabloid’s owners hit back with a detailed rebuttal – including denials any executives knew of wrongdoing.”

They certainly knew about it and were very worried about it. Hence the obfuscation.

ResearcherZero March 20, 2024 8:17 PM

@lurker

Re: ‘rediscovered’

“We never knew anything about it,” said the ministers. “We didn’t know anything.”

No one saw a thing. Absolutely no one turned on the lights. Everyone wore sunglasses.
Even if anyone did see anything, they wouldn’t know what they were seeing anyway.

Pinky Swear. It’s all a mystery and nobody read any of the briefing material either.

Clive Robinson March 20, 2024 11:05 PM

@ lurker, ResearchZero, ALL

Re : It is the NSA wot does it…

“MSM is coyly (so far) not saying whodunnit”

It’s the NSA systems and the office next to the Director used to have an NSA representative OKing everything that went through the Director’s office.

This has been known for oh forty years at least and a journalist turned writer put it all in a book even named names by pulling car registration plate info.

I’ve mentioned this before but the Five-Eyes SigInt agencies all see themselves as “above” elected officials and the Civil Services of the nations that in theory pay their wages etc (to be fair even though a lot of them don’t know it they are actually paid from money that comes via the NSA by the hundreds of millions).

New Zealand and Australia were and still are treated as “third rank” or the “poor country bumpkins” in the arrangement. As “WASP Commonwealth Nations” in special geographic positions for satellite and sub-sea cable monitoring their job was to run the equipment and send the raw intelligence off to the US for “processing” and they would get crumbs of intelligence in return. Canada was similar but also had other more technical roles to do with ICBM and similar tracking and gad greater access to processed intel. The US provided “manufacturing and money and space lift capability” but kept their toes very much out of the water and off the ground of hostile geography after an embarrassing incident to do with a pilot… So in effect the US “outsourced it’s intel gathering”.

Britain surprisingly to many was a senior partner and a lot of British maths, science, and engineering ended up in NSA/US systems and equipment and the running of technical advisory and systems management[1]. Also Britain was very much “boots on the ground” and “toes in the water” and “noses in the wind” providing much of the HumInt and close in ElInt and SigInt by amongst other things submarine and aircraft based monitoring and direct infiltration. For instance the “Berlin Tunnel” or “Operation Gold” was actually just one of very many British Operations where the NSA “manufactured the equipment” and “processed the raw intel” but it was all British specified and designed much of it out of places like Dollis Hill and other “Post Office Research Establishments” and similar Electronics and engineering Companies. Britain and to a certain extent Canada had the brains but not the money thus manufacturing capability Eventually this led to what got cristened “The Brain Drain” in the 1970’s where very high British Taxation, three day working, power cuts, and similar made life miserable. So when US industry just dangled not just better money, but better life styles, and more importantly better opportunities… Those who got such offers quite often just saying yes and leaving almost on the next plane with their families following. And they still do and are joined by those from both Australia and New Zealand as well as other European Countries.

[1] What is now the Internet was based on work ARPA funded but was actually thought up by one of those that caused “The Bletchly Three” to write the letter that eventually caused the MOU that was BRUSA later UKUSA agreements where “We spy on them so they can say they don’t spy on their own” arrangement,

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/UKUSA_Agreement

Surprising to many in the modern armed forces is their tactical communications systems are nearly all based on what was Gordon Welchman’s quite original thinking. And in intelligence circles likewise the same for Traffic Analysis. Also cryptography and computer and management systems, Gordon had a brain not just for mathematics, but “seeing systems” and what our host @Bruce used to call “thinking hinky”. Such minds are highly original, well in advance of their time and rare, very rare, “they do” simply because they can and see it as fun/interesting not something to be rewarded in the usual sense.

Clive Robinson March 21, 2024 1:06 AM

@ ,

Re : Google had lined the sights up on their big toe…

“The only surprise is how easy Google/Alphabet have made it. I would have assumed they would made a walled garden impossible to escape from.”

There is a little history you may not be aware of…

Back a long time ago when Micro$haft decided to move off of “desktops and servers” and were very hot on TPM Google as was then told them if Micro$haft tried any of it’s “lockin” nonsense, then Google would put them six foot under via every legal avenue open to them. Back then Google appeared to have real teeth as Micro$haft had been on the end of a loosing streak against regulators on both sides of the puddle.

So Micro$haft backed off from “lockin” back then, but with Win 10 and now 11 they are “trying it on” again (just one reason I never went that way). Well see “Embrace, Extend, Lockin” with the “Linux on Win” go to the next step any time soon I suspect.

Any way having threatened Micro$haft the way they did and with there being documented evidence to that effect… Google can not go down the “lockin” route themselves without getting a “tap on the shoulder from a regulator” or three.

As for the SDR stuff it’s on my list of things to do, but medical issues are taking up rather more of my time and energy than I would like[1].

But an interesting thing… People buy radio scanners and they cost upwards of $100 USD. However a Chinese company called “Quangsheng” has come out with a Two Way radio the UV-K5 that is around $30 USD it’s also very “modder friendly”. Not only are there some really interesting firmware upgrades that turn it into an 18MHz and up to 1Ghz all mode scanner panoramic receiver,

https://hamradioinsights.com/2024/02/04/quangsheng-uv-k5-best-budget-handheld/

There is also hardware mods, one of which takes it down to longwave,

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jxwBlp8HfKU

So you can get all the benefits and more of a “all mode” “pocket scanner” that does what was once called “DC to daylight” and also FM VHF/UHF two way radio for less than 1/3rd the price of just a VHF/UHF FM scanner.

For those doing adventurous activities including sailplanes, paragliding airsoft paintballing and more traditional “out and about” activities it’s a useful thing to have.

It also can be used as a cheap “test instrument” for fault finding and the like and will also do “bug finding” for those looking for old style surveillance devices.

[1] I’ve been annoyingly effectively poleaxed with medical issues for over a year now. In part due to medication changes for one nuisance –blood clot the size of the end of your thumb in the right atrium– being changed thus really aggravating another nuisance peripheral vascular issues. Causing not just issues with my feet and stability on them but the resulting muscle loss and exhaustion due to being near bed ridden by the other issues. You truly know you are an “old fart” when you get giddy fall over then lack the ability to get back on your feet. Trust me when I say there is very quickly no fun what so ever in having to sleep three times a day and it’s worse with being less mobile than a slug on a salt patch as well as having feet so swollen that there are no actual shoes made to fit… Recent surgery on the feet has improved things a lot but the lack of stability and exhaustion is not improving at anything like the rate I would like. Also having to keep “dressings dry” whilst wearing size 20 “jesus boots” sandles in the wettest month for years makes “getting out” for even a short walk a hazard. The resulting muscle loss means that even sitting down is really really uncomfortable really quickly as is laying on my back. And as it also stops blood flow that causes other issues. And so the Medical Merry go round revs up a couple of gears… Oh and the Dr called today to say not just Hi but I also not only need other meds changes, I now have to have Vitamin B12 injections and foliate supplements urgently as I’ve got significant issues… As they say “it never rains, only pours”

Clive Robinson March 21, 2024 3:48 AM

@ Jerome,

My apologies, my above is in reply to you.

I guess the old grey matter needs a bit of a polish.

Winter March 21, 2024 11:50 AM

Some light reading for the Weekend. Draw your own conclusions:

Why the world cannot afford the rich
‘https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00723-3

As environmental, social and humanitarian crises escalate, the world can no longer afford two things: first, the costs of economic inequality; and second, the rich. Between 2020 and 2022, the world’s most affluent 1% of people captured nearly twice as much of the new global wealth created as did the other 99% of individuals put together1, and in 2019 they emitted as much carbon dioxide as the poorest two-thirds of humanity. In the decade to 2022, the world’s billionaires more than doubled their wealth, to almost US$12 trillion.

Published by Nature magazine

lurker March 21, 2024 4:49 PM

@Cive Robinson, ResearcherZero

I assumed the prime suspect would be our greatest ally, but the question that bothered me was: Who are they spying on? MSM has picked up on this and concluded that because we can’t see very far out of our tiny corner of the planet, it wouldn’t be anybody important. As for them spying on us, why bother? They can get all they want fromm the Six O’clck News and Hansard.

ResearcherZero March 21, 2024 11:46 PM

@lurker

MSM’s conclusions are based on failed logic. There are activities taking place everywhere.
They failed to take into account foreign actors having legs and other modes of transport.
Those agents also use modes of communication, even in the far flung corners of the world.

@Clive

Re: Crumbs of intelligence

To an extent that is true. Not in all situations. Yet the security record and ability by some to do their job (process the information they are given) has often been sub standard. Their opinion is not required. What is required is for them to follow orders and do their job. Information may be redacted for lower level clearances, and their opinions on it’s veracity are not required. Discipline is required above all else. [whip crack]

If information comes from well confirmed sources, and has been carefully verified, then protecting those sources is a much higher priority than everyone else’s opinions.
Information is first processed to remove any bias. Further biased opinion is not required.

If it is ‘high confidence’ then that is based on information they are not required to know, as they do not have a higher level of clearance. They should accordingly STFU and more importantly, keep their yapping traps shut. Not keeping traps shut is as large a security problem as misguided and uninformed opinions. Those opinions being the source of problems and delays. If something is marked as a high priority then they should hop to it! Delays and problems then cause security concerns, lowering one’s confidence in ability.

Nobody should be discussing matters at lunch time – in ear shot of others. Crumbs is what they then deserve. Demonstrating discipline and responsibility in turn earns the trust of others. Consideration and contemplation. Applied analysis of said information – and results. Otherwise somebody more capable can be found to do the job, leaving just crumbs.

JonKnowsNothing March 21, 2024 11:51 PM

@Clive, All

A MSM article on a CDC report about misdiagnosis of chicken pox. (1)

The problem is that in the USA chickenpox is fairly rare now because we have excellent vaccines for it. So, MDs are losing their ability to differentiate chickenpox from other illnesses.

… public health researchers in Minnesota found that 55 percent of people diagnosed with chickenpox based on their symptoms were actually negative for the varicella-zoster virus, the virus that causes chickenpox.

The study noted that the people were all diagnosed in person by health care providers in medical facilities.

But, instead of chickenpox, lab testing showed that some of the patients were actually infected with an enterovirus, which can cause a rash, or the herpes simplex virus 1, which causes cold sores.

Study was published in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, …. highlights that

  • diagnoses based on symptoms are “unreliable.”

Years ago it was noted that hospital MDs, particularly dealing with End of Life illnesses were commonly incorrect on the cause of death. This was across the spectrum of MDs and conditions. When autopsies were preformed, it was found a large number of conditions went unnoticed and therefore untreated.

In USA, hospitals are loath to do autopsies. They are expensive and lead to medical embarrassment. Hospitals use NUDGE to get families to avoid autopsies and if you are triaged into Hospice there is no autopsies under those programs.

Incorrect hospital deaths or treatments are dealt with in-house medical committees where the public and family are not invited nor informed of results of review.

  • iirc(badly eons ago) a documentary about EoL for cancer patient, one family did not want to end the treatment even though the patient had no active responses. It was at a time when less technical assessments where available. Finally when the machinery was removed, there was an autopsy done to evaluate the chemo-treatment. The person had “died” weeks and weeks earlier due to a non-functioning major organ. The chemo treatment was both ineffective and had no impact on the real cause of death. The death certificate was not correct.

===

1)

HAIL Warning

ht tps://arste ch nica.com/science/2024/03/more-than-half-of-chickenpox-diagnoses-are-wrong-study-finds/

  • More than half of chickenpox diagnoses are wrong
    • diagnoses based on symptoms are “unreliable.”

ResearcherZero March 22, 2024 12:06 AM

@winter

If we cut large houses in half it would solve the housing problem. Easy and cheap to do.

Large houses require large amounts of energy and too many resources to build. Too many people have more crap than they ever need, and live wasteful, disgusting lives. They can’t even scrape their plates, or fix the seals in their own toilets, which leads to blocked drains and leaks. This in turn contaminates ground water and leads to further waste.

master key recoverable

‘https://unsaflok.com/

Hotels need to update or replace the front desk management system and have a technician carry out a quick reprogramming of each lock, door by door.

‘https://www.wired.com/story/saflok-hotel-lock-unsaflok-hack-technique/

“self-perpetuating and targets application-layer messages”

The first server will respond with an error message to the victim, similarly triggering another error message back to the first server.

Microsoft is just one of the affected, along with Broadcom and Microtik. Based on the UDP protocol, the attack targets both legacy and modern protocols such as DNS, NTP and TFTP.

‘https://cispa.de/en/loop-dos

ResearcherZero March 22, 2024 2:46 AM

@JonKnowsNothing

At least here they run blood and urine tests first to see if they get a positive result. One of the benefits of public medicine. Provided you have appropriate colour.

For mental health, the public health system still has many of the private problems. For one, it is not covered by public health unless someone has a condition ‘deemed’ severe.

(I’m not sure mental health is even covered by private health care here on most plans.)

  • ‘I’m crazy you are.’ The descriptive problem of assessment is a big one.

The minutes of how the decisions are made regarding checklists for assessment and other decisions are restricted by those who made the decisions, and they do not want dissent.

“The intent seemed to be not to let anyone know what the hell was going on.”

If bad tests are sanctioned in the DSM, insurance companies might use them to cut off coverage for patients deemed not sick enough.

Instead of curing the profession’s own malady, descriptive psychiatry has just covered it up…

‘https://www.wired.com/2010/12/ff-dsmv/

ResearcherZero March 22, 2024 5:22 AM

A world without agreement is a world without clear definition…

“You have a medical definition of abortion; you have 50-some-odd legal definitions of abortion; and then you have a bazillion public perceptions of abortion.”

Many states now exclude removing dead fetuses or removing ectopic pregnancies, for example.
Several states also exclude pregnancies not known to the doctor treating the patient.

‘https://www.statnews.com/2024/03/11/how-to-define-abortion/

“Doctors and hospitals are turning away patients, saying that ambiguous laws and the threat of criminal penalties make them unwilling to test the rules.”

The language in these laws make it unclear how a provider is supposed to validate a patient’s accusation of rape, or the providers may be scared to act due to fear they will be prosecuted if they act outside the law.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/rape-exceptions-abortions-bans-complicated-reality/story?id=88237926

“many qualified candidates would no longer even consider working or training in more than half of U.S. states.”

76% of respondents in a survey of more than 2,000 current and future physicians say they would not even apply to work or train in states with abortion restrictions.
https://www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/second-opinions/103545

“A lot of it is about likes. It’s about retweets. It’s about camera time. They’re selfish individuals.”

Matt Gaetz and Chip Roy rally against House leadership again for doing something.

‘https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/20/house-republicans-2024-election-campaign/

In interviews with scores of GOP members, the anger within the conference was palpable.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/17/politics/mike-johnson-house-republican-primary-fights/index.html

“Republicans had to abandon their plans to pass the agriculture funding bill in August.”

“Last week, McCarthy was forced to halt the consideration of the annual defense funding bill.” (September 18, 2023)

‘https://time.com/6315482/republicans-spending-bills-fight-government-shutdown/

House GOP appropriators are loading up their spending bills with anti-abortion and anti-gender affirming care measures.
https://www.axios.com/2023/07/26/health-care-poison-pills-spending-process

Clive Robinson March 22, 2024 6:07 AM

@ JonKnowsNothing, ALL,

Re : What is the cost of certainty?

“misdiagnosis of chicken pox”

On the face of it, it appears as a,

“Rules based ‘Duck Test’ issue.”

That is you walk down a decision tree and at some point you have say a 90% confidence “it’s a large farm yard duck” but the reality is “it’s a small farm yard goose”.

The next question is,

“Does it matter?”

For basic animal care it does not matter which it is as the basically live in the same environment and eat the same food etc. You will also get eggs out of them if female (I’ll ignore for the moment the eggs are different)

However if you are looking to breed then if the male is a goose and the female a duck then yes it does matter.

Also it matters to the animal in other ways but mostly a farmer would not care.

Now look at “chicken pox” how much does a correct diagnosis actually matter?

You have to ask with respect to,

1, The patient.
2, The population.

As far as the patient is concerned they have an infection for which there is no cure, just palliative care whilst it runs it’s course. This is the same for other infections that present with similar symptoms.

For the population all they care about in general is not getting infected, and the rules for that are almost the same as for all infectious diseases.

So the question arises as to when knowing the difference becomes important. Which brings up resource cost questions for diagnosis and palliative care.

There are tests that will give information to identify the pathogen behind the infection, however they take time and cost in other resources. These resources are finite thus if you use them for one thing you can not at the same time use them for another.

This is where the dreaded word “triage” arises and where the issues of fairness and discrimination arise as well as negligence.

We’ve had conversations about this in the past and it’s clear that the solutions are based on the priorities of an individual decision maker and their point of view, within a work related environment.

JonKnowsNothing March 22, 2024 10:39 AM

@ResearcherZero, All

re: Mental Health Access in USA

It is a complete hodgepodge of access, denial or incarceration. It depends on what state you live in, what county (which is responsible in the the general health) and what city.

California just passed a new law about homeless mental health which includes provision for “mandatory compliance”. Many homeless or un-housed people have significant long term mental health problems or alcohol induced mental health issues.

California has a Parity Law which requires health insurers to provide Mental Health access, drugs and services. This includes Company provided health care. What people rarely look at is the very fine print on page 65 about the limitations of mental healthcare. As long as you are able to work with your condition, you can get your Rx, see a MD and get labs as needed (some drugs are highly toxic). However, if your condition worsens, and you have to file for Company Long Term Health Care Coverage, you will find a BIG surprise waiting.

  • If you have a heart condition your LT Coverage extends until you are eligible for Medicare ~65ys.
  • If you have a mental health condition your LT Coverage ends after 2 years.

California History:

In ~1970s when Ronald Reagan was Governor and the shift started towards Hayek’s economic model, then called Trickle Down Theory, the California State run hospital complexes where sold for housing developments.

These were large parkland acreages which by 1970s were now surrounded by urban areas.

Mixed support housing was supposed to be built to integrate the people who had been formerly imprisoned by the State into regular social system. The NIMBY movement prevented almost all of this housing.

The people still had to go somewhere and that somewhere was the street.

As the people with severe mental conditions do not comply to Law Enforcement methods of interaction, they are incarcerated in the California State Prison, County Prison, City Prisons.

A large portion of the prison population in LA County and LA City jails are the mentally ill. Once incarcerated they are subject to on going arbitrary extensions for prison rules violations.

The mentally ill were in effect moved from a prison in a park with open air, trees, and lawns to a prison with concrete floors and walls, no windows and razor wire fencing.

JonKnowsNothing March 22, 2024 10:57 AM

@Clive, All

re: This is where the dreaded word “triage” arises and where the issues of fairness and discrimination arise as well as negligence.

Unfortunately, people don’t encounter this until something catastrophic happens and then they get smacked in the face.

RL tl;dr

Canada

An elderly person in a care home fell and fractured their upper arm.

They are receiving no extra care, no surgery to repair the broken bones, pain medications limited.

The family has discovered they are powerless in this situation. Unless someone has enough funds to hire a private surgeon and pay all the surgical costs out of pocket, there is nothing they can do. The medical decision is No Treatment.

They are now confronting the form of Triage applied to older people:

  • No Treatment. Select: Morphine or Hospice.

There are many conditions for which this is the appropriate medical decision.

It is not the appropriate decision for families.

  • A broken arm should not lead to death.

But it does and it will.

Clive Robinson March 22, 2024 10:17 PM

@ JonKnowsNothing, ALL,

Re : Triage, discrimination and negligence.

“Unfortunately, people don’t encounter this until something catastrophic happens and then they get smacked in the face.”

It’s not just in the case of “alleged accidents” and age.

As both you and I know from experience the “hidden argument” is not actually anything “medical” in most cases, but “economic worth” described in terms such as,

“Years of quality of life benefit”

Where another dread term “micromorts” comes into play as a rationalisation.

Put simply for political reasons as far as “the state” is concerned you “die on the day you retire”. Because you in effect move from one column –pay in– to the other column –pay out– on their books. That is you cease to be a “contributor” to be gulled and robbed, to become an “expense”. Thus the sooner you are dead in reality the more profit there is you make for them. With the amounts involved justifying what is murder.

The only factor that comes into play is if your cost is payed for by another entity such as insurance, but they for the same profit reasons they want you dead even quicker and are more blatant about it.

I have very recently had “elective surgery” on my feet that I had been putting off for a number of years (me and surgery do not get on for various reasons). The reason is that there are two lines on the graph that matter,

1, The first is the increasing complications as my body tires of fighting the problem (infection from ingrowing toe nail etc).

2, The second is the rapidly decreasing probability the surgery will be made available to me (as I get older).

These are not straight lines but power laws. The first increases with time, the second decreases at an even greater rate with time.

Thus there is a crossing point. If you are to the left you get the surgery and the first curve effectively stops rising thus you live longer. If you are to the right you don’t get the surgery and you die maybe twenty years earlier than you would otherwise. In part because even low cost out of patent anti-biotics get withdrawn as you get older (about four years after retirment age).

The only reason you get vaccines after retirment is that on balance it costs less than the embarrassment of having old folks gasping to death in bus shelters outside hospitals.

The “official” lie for this behaviour is the current “Austerity Economics” favoured by the right wing politicians. The reality is that it has nothing what so ever to do with austerity but everything to do with,

“Robbing the poor to pay the rich”.

That is what you pay in tax or insurance for your future and old age gets “stolen from the pot” and given to certain wealthy people in various ways. Who then “kick back” a tiny fraction to the politicians via lobbyists and campaign funds and similar (supposedly “free speech” in the US…).

Almost invariably the stolen money that should have be working for peoples future, ends up in political pockets of those the people would certainly not vote for. Thus in my view it represents an illegal tax at best through deep corruption and on to what is effectively murder.

It’s one of the reasons why there is increasing disparity of the 1% of the 1% who are rich and nearly all others who are by definition “the exploited poor people” even if they are upper middle class in nice houses etc. Thus the result is,

1, The poor get poorer,
2, The poor are dying ever younger.
3, The rich get richer,
4, The rich live twenty years or more longer.

I very much doubt any of the “self entitled” rich read this blog, but if enough “honest” but exploited poor people read this then maybe their outlook will change.

It’s just one of many reasons why I say that,

“Money should be removed from politics.”

But then what do I know 😉

Clive Robinson March 22, 2024 11:50 PM

@ ALL,

Remember that “sadistics stuff” you did in high school math that involved the only recognised mathematical work of Edinburgh Educated Thomas Bayes[1].

Of which it has been said[2],

“The philosophy of Bayesian statistics is at the core of almost every modern estimation approach that includes conditioned probabilities”

Well old as I am I remember the mind numbing explanation and verbal droning of a teacher who knew it not either…

Well in having a sniff around on Security specifically to do with determining “fake-news” and “deception” I came across this little nugget[3],

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=72G-FQ4GNok

And in some ways it’s quite fun and quite painless to watch.

Whilst the first part is a little droll as it’s in effect a worked example introduction it will for the astute observer however give away the ending. Which is in effect why Bay’s little theorem should be treated with caution sometimes especially so as it appears to legitimise a guess based on another guess.

Importantly thing to note though is that Bay’s Theorem only deals with a single point in time and effectively only a single variable treated in a linear fashion.

Most things in life however are based on “self similar curves” that are power laws, and many variables, that may not always be independent of each other. Thus Bay’s little theorem has to be used with care if it is to have any real meaning in any given domain or context.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem

[2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem

[3] Yup that mask is not hiding anything… The head movement changes the contrast and in so doing reveals the beard and it’s cut, the jaw size and range of movement. So is not hiding anything from “facial recognition algorithms”.

bl5q sw5N March 25, 2024 6:42 PM

@ Clive Robinson

should be treated with caution

The video calculation of the posterior contains an error. The value should be (.08)/(.08+(.4)*(.9)) = .08/.44 = 2/11 =~ 18 %, rather than (.08)/(.08+(.4)(.6)) = .08/.32 = 1/4 = 25%.

The presenter mentions the following difficulty in using Bayes but does not discuss a standard alternate approach, namely the Likelihood Method<. (The term likelihood is used but not clarified.)

If the primary and conditioning data can both be regarded as coming from chance processes, then Bayes is just a straightforward conditional probability calculation.

However, if the primary data come from a chance process depending on a parameter whose value is unknown, and the problem is to estimate the “best” parameter value, then conditional probability can not really be used, as the information to establish a distribution for the parameter is usually unavailable. Attempts to provide a distribution introduce new elements of arbitrary choice and hence obscurity.

In this situation, the concept of likelihood can be useful.

It seems reasonable to say that a parameter value hypothesis which makes the observed chance data more probable is more likely than a parameter hypothesis for which the observed data would be less probable. Reference [1] develops this approach in detail. The likelihood approach has none of the obscurities of the Bayes approach, and the calculations are simpler, even in cases where conditional probability can be used.

  1. Edwards, A. W. F. (1972). Likelihood.

Leave a comment

Login

Allowed HTML <a href="URL"> • <em> <cite> <i> • <strong> <b> • <sub> <sup> • <ul> <ol> <li> • <blockquote> <pre> Markdown Extra syntax via https://michelf.ca/projects/php-markdown/extra/

Sidebar photo of Bruce Schneier by Joe MacInnis.