Quantum Computing Skeptics

Interesting article. I am also skeptical that we are going to see useful quantum computers anytime soon. Since at least 2019, I have been saying that this is hard. And that we don’t know if it’s “land a person on the surface of the moon” hard, or “land a person on the surface of the sun” hard. They’re both hard, but very different.

Posted on January 25, 2024 at 7:04 AM20 Comments

Comments

Erdem Memisyazici January 25, 2024 9:19 AM

I expect to see one at one billion dollars range by 2039. NIST hasn’t predicted anything wrong yet.

Clive Robinson January 25, 2024 10:08 AM

@ Jeff Hall,

From the head of the article,

“Scientists achieve groundbreaking room-temperature quantum coherence for 100 nanoseconds”

A hundred nanoseconds is about the time it takes for a photon to go “~98ft in a vacuum”

Have a look at how big the “chandeliers” are and how few Qbits they can hold and still be able to use them,

https://www.popsci.com/technology/in-photos-journey-to-the-center-of-a-quantum-computer/

Much of the chandelier is to do with the signal sources used to be able to use the 50 or so Qbits, so even though room tempreture would be nice the volume is not going to go down by much.

So even if you could build them into a cube, remember that even in quantum computing “the round trip time” is what counts, and that’s going to be at best 1/4 of that 98ft across the faces.

So there is actually not much gained and so still a long long way to go.

Clive Robinson January 25, 2024 10:49 AM

@ Bruce,

Do you know about the connection between running Quantum Computers the making nuclear bombs and Security Theatre?

Basically the Qbits are in a liquid gas Helium-3 which is lighter than air and even though helium is one of the most abundant elements in the universe,

“It’s all out there way above our gravity well and of a density to low to measure conventionally.”

Remember the child hood fun of a ballon? Well few realise that it was the start of an interstellar journy for the atoms of gas inside.

They ballon bursts or leaks the atoms out, they rise up to the top of our atmosphere where “space weather” scours them free and accelerates then out of Earth’s influence into the space between the planets in our solar system.

The solar irradience of our sun pushes most of them ever outwards into interstellar space and thus outwards to who knows where.

Romantic as that might sound to a young childs dreams and wonders, it’s actually a bit of a nightmare.

Those atoms are a very finite and mostly a non renuable resource and we are going through them at an alarming rate. As I’ve indicated before they are now considered a critical resource and not as once regarded an anoying byproduct of the natural gas drilling operations.

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.326_778

Note the connection to the DHS and “Security Theatre”.

The other source is a byproduct of making nuclear bombs and in one case nuclear power,

https://laurentisenergy.com/story/laurentiss-production-of-helium-3-supports-high-tech-research-security-and-health-care/

So Quantum Computing may not happen because,

“The price of gas is to high and it’s become ‘unobtanium’.”

bl5q sw5N January 25, 2024 11:09 AM

Egrissimi doctores discordant.

https://www.hpcwire.com/2013/11/25/carver-mead-quantum-computing-neuromorphic-design/

Mead is skeptical, yet supportive, of current quantum computing projects.

“We don’t know what a new electronic device is going to be. But there’s very little quantum about transistors,” he says. “I’m not close to it, but I’m generally supportive of these people doing what they call quantum computing. People have got into trying to build real things based on quantum coupling, and any time people try to build stuff that actually works, they’re going to learn a hell of a lot. That’s where new science really comes from.”

Anonymous January 25, 2024 11:26 AM

The money will run out because real results are scant.
Expect continued hype to keep the money flowing.
In the meantime some cryptographers fear real damage will be done by the rush to post-quantum algorithms.

Wannabe techguy January 25, 2024 12:28 PM

@Anonymous

“Expect continued hype to keep the money flowing”.
Yep,it’s always the way when lots of government(taxpayer)money is available.

David Wittenberg January 25, 2024 2:14 PM

Notice that none of the people saying Quantum Computing is overhyped were takling about quantum computers breaking RSA (and other cryptosystems). They said that if you were relying on Grover’s algorithm (with a square-root speeedup), you were likely to be disappointed. But the problem most relevant to computer security now is cryptography, and breaking RSA etc. relies on Shor’s algorithm with an exponential speedup.

We may get the worst of both worlds: Our cryptography is broken, but none of the advances in understanding of the universe occur.

Clive Robinson January 25, 2024 2:42 PM

@

Re : Untill heat part us all.

From the aricle on Carver Mead’s comments,

“In [his] view, one of the thorniest challenges for the chip industry is power dissipation. For decades now, the focus has been on faster and faster chips, but the heat issue can’t be ignored.”

If you look back through this blog you will see I’ve likewise been worried about “heat death” of chips.

The funny side if you are amused by people succeeding on target shooting their feet is in a number of cases it’s a problem that need not have happened.

It’s often portrayed by journalists as a transistor count, transistor density or clock speed or similar issue. Actually they are secondary effects to the real issue that’s not as easy to explain to journalists and hence them to others.

The problem is how long a transistor is in a linear or resistive portion of it’s charecteristic because that is when the heating effect due to “I squared R” causes issues. One way to reduce the losses is to examine how the transistor moves through that linear region. When off resistance is very high but the current is just about zero so the power is likewise close to zero. When the transistor is hard on it’s resistance is very low but the design is such that the voltage is very low so the V2/R power is very small. The design is often shown as a totempole where on transistor is on and the other off. Thus both I and V are minimised in either the on or the off conditions. Howrver switching the totempole from one state to another not just takes it through the linear stage, for speed there must be considerable movment of charge, not just through the totempole transistors but any storage element connected to them. Thus the likes of input and output capacitance make a difference by prolonging the transition time as well as increasing the current or voltage. Whilst there is little that can be done about the capacitance, resistance and current it’s important to remember that the supply voltage can be reduced. At one time logic chips had 24v supplies that came down to 5v and now as low as 1.8 volts below which life starts getting problematical for the likes of a totempole arrangement. But consider that 5 squared is 25 and 1.8 squared is 3.24 just bringing the supply voltage down brings the heat down to 3.24/25 or a little under 13% of what it was all other things being equal. Which unfortunately they are not, because like charge heat can be stored. There are videos around of people holding in their bare hand one end of iron wire the other end goes into a gas burner. The end in the flame gets hot enough to glow bright orange, yet the other end of the wire can still be held. The wire is taken out of the gas burner but still continues to glow for a few seconds. Usually though the heat finally gets to the end of the wire being held and the person has to let go. The fact the other end may still be glowing tells you about the storage effect, the fact that the wire could be held in a bare hand tells you about the slow speed of heat transmission in a nominal conductor. These storage and transmission issues are both worse in semiconductors…

Without going into more details there is less and less that can be done in a general way to chips and heat. However you can still get it down in the individual transistors by not switching them as often.

One of the failing with all of Intel’s “Go Faster Strip” circuits is that they have to run at the processor internal clock speed even though they are mostly not doing anything particularly usefull. As the old joke about the country gent leaning on the gate and after being asked for directions by newlyweds says on reflection “I wouldn’t start from here if I were you”… The fact is if you were to design a CPU Intel’s IAx86 architectute is one you most definately would not consider unless you want to double up as the element in a toaster (just one reason why ARM has such advantages).

But Heat Death is just a side effect of unwanted heat from computation, although not talked about Quantum Computers do generate quite a bit of heat so keeping the Qbits down to near absolute zero is actually quite an engineering issue and one of the reasons the chandeliers are designed the way they are. Not just a design with technical beauty but actually beautiful to look at as an object in it’s own right. It’s why the IBM office in London just down the street from Waterloo had one in it’s window, as a display last time I was down that way (if it’s still in the window I’d recomend a look in if you are passing).

Clive Robinson January 25, 2024 3:12 PM

@ David Wittinberg,

Re : Near future likely outcome

“We may get the worst of both worlds: Our cryptography is broken, but none of the advances in understanding of the universe occur.”

That I suspect is exactly what is going to happen in the near term after Quantum Computing gets to a Qbit count of reasonable size (if it ever does).

The thing is QC pundits have a parrot chained up on top of a perch squawking away. As long as it’s the only thing on that perch it will keep squawking the same old thing.

But the likes of Nvidia are eating out the diferential under that perch so in a couple of years or so if they keep on at their current rate of climb the parrot will find it’s self in the shade.

But it’s other technologies comming along and the occasional theoretical improvement to maths, that is actually much more of a current threat.

But less obvious in all that squawking is a quite voice pointing out that the use for Quantum Computers is deminishing in breadth. That is results with Quantum Simulators have already started eating into what Quantum Computing might have given.

With FPGA’s bolted onto CPU’s much like math-CoPros in the 90’s giving algorithms increases in speed of between five and fifty, at a tiny fraction of the cost of Quantum Computing hardware the hardware could find it’s self left out as technology enhances.

Also bubbles are bursting, some of the hype of AI was jumped on by Quantum Computing. If that AI bubble bursts in the near future as I expect it will, then Quantum Computings promised land just got a load of idilic territory ear marked for strip mining then landfill by garbage dump so not going to be a pretty sight.

If AI “cumms a guttser” as expected and like NFT’s Web3 and crypto-coins does not pull it in for the VC’s then where is the money going to go?

Based on the “fool me once” principle probably not into another Tech bubble (even though it looks like the last horse in town capable of getting past the “Boot-Hill” body drop).

Security Sam January 25, 2024 4:04 PM

What do all those skeptics think
Why there is do much confusion
We shall achieve quantum chips
When we will contain cold fusion.

echo January 25, 2024 4:26 PM

Computational speed is not a barrier if you can dodge causality locally, or wormhole your way back to the past. While not explicitly used as a sci-fi narrative it’s implied. Another way of making computational speed not a problem is time dilation although that would be useless in a practical sense apart from locally limited use cases.

Another way of dodging computational speed limits to to embrace WWIII and send ourselves back to the stone age. If we cannot conceive of computation the problem disappears. I imagine many wouldn’t choose to go down this path but imagine the benefits. Everything old is new again! It’s like a second bite at the cherry.

Quantum theory doesn’t describe reality and it’s slightly broken. Also we don’t know the mechanism underlying decoherence. General Relativity is a bit of a concrete mattress but it doesn’t rule out a few things currently deemed impossible or impossible in practice. Frustrating isn’t it? It’s like a itch in an unreachable place.

@echo January 25, 2024 4:44 PM

Rather tantalizing treatise.
With our current trajectory, a ten thousand year ice age will surely solve the problem.

echo January 25, 2024 5:14 PM

Quite. I have thought for a long time the problem is never about the money or how much but who gets it. (My personal view about money is men make it so I can spend it but that’s another story. Good grief. The looks on some men’s faces when I say that!)

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/FELqBU-BX2o

Priti Patel vs Eco Protestors 2024.

This just dropped today. Former Home Secretary Priti Patel was filmed visiting the offices of the dark money funded shady “think tank” the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA).

The kids are okay. They have got this.

Erdem Memisyazici January 26, 2024 12:47 AM

IBM article sheds a little light on their goal for 100,000 qubits. The company recently unveiled their 1000 qubit success. That is all public of course which usually means by 2040 roughly 5000 people world wide can afford a few million qubits. That being said it would cost a lot less to individually target people and hack their computers instead but some millionaires are on top of their I.T. game. This would probably be interesting for billionaires who are interested in the secrets of other billionaires and millionaires who probably are using symmetric encryption anyways. One thing I could see an owner of such a computer doing would be forming relationships with law enforcement of a town someone owns a lot of businesses in and offer the computer as a favor to decrypt the traffic of bad guys who work for bad guy millionaires. Publicly we will probably at least see half-million qubits by the end of 2030s. I say publicly because who would report owning anything around 20 million qubits?

That being said there is far more interesting data than someone’s internet traffic like medical data. If I can look at where, on what and the manner of how your eyes are focusing throughout your day why would I need your internet traffic decrypted? Info based attacks are a lot more personal these days.

Winter January 26, 2024 7:50 AM

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comment-431449 AI and Machine Learning Specialists • January 26, 2024 7:16 AM

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piglet January 31, 2024 12:06 PM

The article is interesting but it doesn’t discuss what may be the biggest issue. It talks about quantum computing “solving problems” but the only problem that a workable quantum computer would actually be able to “solve” (which isn’t easily solvable with conventional computing) is breaking encryption. And that would be a catastrophe!

Clive Robinson January 31, 2024 4:37 PM

@ piglet, ALL,

Re : Encryption is not the only jewel.

“[T]he only problem that a workable quantum computer would actually be able to “solve” (which isn’t easily solvable with conventional computing) is breaking encryption.”

Not totally true but there are not that many exceptions to make “Quantum Computing”(QC) anything close to main stream.

The other problem QC has that is not much talked about is that it is actually very slow. In effect “snail on Mogadon (Nitrazepam)” slow. Which is why other “hunting” or “annealing” algorithms on modern hardware can compeate (with the movment to FPGA hardware outperform at a lower price point is possible).

In “theory” encryption is a “special case” set of algorithms where you can not “hunt in” via successively closer approximations (actually not entirely true as we are finding in more modern times).

What is “big and scary” is how asymetric crypto algorithms “have changed the world”. If you came up with an inexpesive and easy to run fasy algorithm that killed asymetric crypto, “Internet Commerce” and much of the US and other Western Nations economies would be “gone by the end of the week” or very shortly there after as would all online banking etc, and ammusingly so would all crypto-coins and their infrastructure.

Third world countries would not notice, nor would most second world. After all you don’t need asymetric crypto to herd herbivors or cultivate crops, or build buildings, roads or other infrastructure. Or anything that was “normal” prior to the mid 1990’s…

Would it hurt to kill the “big tech bros cash cows?” probably not, though they might scream “Snot Fair, Snot Fair” like a six year old in the school playground…

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