Friday Squid Blogging: New Report on Squid Markets

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As usual, you can also use this squid post to talk about the security stories in the news that I haven't covered.

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Posted on March 13, 2020 at 4:02 PM • 213 Comments

Comments

Stranded in AK by Quintillion falloutMarch 13, 2020 4:13 PM

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/03/13/tech/sim-hack-million-dollars/index.html

One man lost his life savings in a SIM hack. Here's how you can try to protect yourself
San Francisco(CNN Business) — Robert Ross was sitting in his San Francisco home office in October 2018 when he noticed the bars on his phone had disappeared and he had no cell coverage. A few hours later, he had lost $1 million.


Ross was the victim of a SIM hack, ...

myliitMarch 13, 2020 4:42 PM

Trust Trump or +1 for ACLU?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/aclu-sues-u-s-for-records-of-facial-recognition-use-at-airports-11584025151 today

“ ACLU Sues U.S. for Records of Facial-Recognition Use at Airports

The effort marks the latest salvo in a nationwide activist campaign to halt use of the technology

Airlines and the TSA are starting to scan faces to get people through security and the boarding gate faster. WSJ's Scott McCartney tests out the airline's facial recognition technology and learns not all passengers are ready to give up their privacy....

--The American Civil Liberties Union is suing federal agencies for records about the use of facial recognition at airports and other places where travelers enter the U.S., the latest salvo in a nationwide activist campaign to halt use of the technology.

The suit, filed Thursday in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, seeks to compel the Department of Homeland Security and other agencies to release documents regarding the policy’s use, including government contracts with airports and airlines....“

AndersMarch 13, 2020 5:47 PM

@Clive @SpaceLifeForm @ALL

medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

SpaceLifeFormMarch 13, 2020 6:50 PM

@ Clive, Anders, All

I'm sure it is going to get bad in DC Metro, NY, Atlanta GA, Augusta (Fort Gordon)

@ SpeakerPelosi

This is the proper time to home quarantine.

Because you may be running this country before the election happens.

So, Nancy, seriously, just do it.

Minority 99March 13, 2020 6:57 PM

@ myliit

I don't give a flying fsck about facial recognition or TSA's hurt feelings or 9/11 or any of that $#!!. When I pay my fare just like everyone else, I need to be allowed to board the plane just like everyone else.

If four men "armed" with nothing more than awkward knives with 2" blades designed to cut cardboard boxes are allowed to storm the cockpit and take over the flight controls, and dozens of physically able and mentally competent passengers are helpless to stop them, our country is well beyond saving.

AndersMarch 13, 2020 7:00 PM

@Clive @SpaceLifeForm @ALL

news.err.ee/1063224/estonian-government-declares-emergency-situation-against-coronavirus

SpaceLifeFormMarch 13, 2020 7:38 PM

@ Anders, Clive

Good link.

Note that one of the main points is the data.

More specifically, the *LACK* of accurate data.

I can see the supression of accurate data.

From various sources. Been watching this for a long time now, as you know.

Just like China and Iran did, the US news is being filtered. Seriously, I can visually see it, because I know of cases that are *not* showing up on various tracking sites.

Twitter is heavily filtering.

If Ohio says they probably have 100k infected now, well, if the tests ever can be done soon, my estimate is 4M confirmed in US by mid-May.

If you live in US, please, just don't even fly domestic. Hunker down as much as possible.

The planes are infected.


ThothMarch 13, 2020 8:47 PM

@Clive Robinson

Is there any difference between the temperature sensor module used in those airport temperature screening module and those for RPi linked below.

Link is not HTTPS.

I am thinking if a RPi camera module can be equipped with temperature sensor and left in a remote location, built in cheap amounts with low cost RPi modules and scatter around one's own properties.

Security can be done by having motion sensors and TPM installed into the RPi board to detect attempted removal and tamering of low cost cameras and to allow secure channel back to home NAS server setup to receive secure link data from cameras.

Idea is to surround physical properties to efficiently detect possible infected visitors at one's home door before opening the door or engaging with conversation at the door.

So a prudent idea is to use these temperature sensor equipped homebrewed RPi CCTV systems to estimate the visitor's temperature without them noticing and then not feeling bad about it to turn the visitor away if they are suspected of having abnormal temperatures.

Link:
- http://sensorkit.en.joy-it.net/index.php?title=KY-028_Temperature_Sensor_module_(Thermistor)

SpaceLifeFormMarch 13, 2020 8:52 PM

@ Clive, Anders, All

I did not know there was such a thing as weak Everclear, but, anyway...

Sign at a Publix:

Low on Hand Sanitizer?
Make your own with
Aloe Vera Gel and Everclear.

See Jeff in the Liquor store for the Everclear. Many recipes available online.
(must be at least 60% alcohol to be effective)

Wesley ParishMarch 13, 2020 9:15 PM

@usual suspects

Some time ago @Bruce asked if we thought inequality was a security concern. Now if this quotation from an article from Mother Jones does not cover the security aspects of the coronavirus pandemic, I don't know what does.

The Coronavirus Crisis Is Bernie Sanders’ Message in a Nutshell

But it isn’t simply cruel in the abstract, or a problem facing other people. The pandemic had, he said, crystallized the consequences of health care inequity in a way that everyone could understand. When Sanders said on Friday that “what this crisis is beginning to teach us is we are only as safe as the least insured person in America,” it was not just a rhetorical flourish—he was saying that if your neighbor does not have insurance and can’t access health care, you are at risk too. Medicare-for-all has always been presented as an altruistic idea; but sometimes a bit of selfishness goes a long way.

How secure are you when you can't isolate yourself from disease-carriers who don't know about it and if they did, couldn't afford to take time off work anyway? (It is assumed that the medical suppliers are already breached in a typical display of American Exceptionalism, the truly exceptional thing being that they neither know nor care that their patients' confidential records are "blowing in the wind".)

Wesley ParishMarch 13, 2020 9:28 PM

@usual suspects

Re: confluence of health and cybersecurity attacks:

Czech hospital hit by cyberattack while in the midst of a COVID-19 outbreak
https://www.zdnet.com/article/czech-hospital-hit-by-cyber-attack-while-in-the-midst-of-a-covid-19-outbreak/

At times of crisis, hackers see opportunity," Flavius Plesu, founder and CEO of human risk intelligence firm OutThink, told ZDNet today. "At times of increased risk, security teams must be extra vigilant and understand that the risk of a cyberattack is much higher than usual as hackers try to take advantage of tired, overstretched staff that potentially have their guards down."

Should go without saying. It's not rocket surgery, or brain science.

lurkerMarch 13, 2020 11:27 PM

@Thoth: in 2014 during one of the bird-flu periods Guangzhou Baiyun airport had 4 lanes with camera monitors for incoming pax. Staggering off a red-eye flight at 6.30am my greasy balding forehead reflected the overhead lighting sufficiently to set off the alarm: loud klaxon: all four lanes froze: operator froze, staring at the screen for a full five seconds, then the supervisor came, looked at the screen, glanced at all suspects, and said carry on.

CuriousMarch 14, 2020 4:46 AM

Apparently there is talk of UK officially desiring a "herd immunity" to covid-19 as I understand it. And inspired by recent reddit threads about accusations of country x attacking country y with the virus (no idea if that is true officially).

If the very idea of just letting the virus going crazy in the population isn't bad enough, it makes wonder if governments are considering to either defend or sort of weaponize their population, in either defending against anyone spreading this type of virus later on in an organized way, or, if UK or allies were to do so themselves to other countries.

I've played Pandemic the game in the past. And in that game you would want to end up creating a virus that manages to spread across the globe, but without nation states blocking ports and shutting down airfields before it is too late to stop a pandemic.

I wonder what the "western" NATO leadership thinks of the covid-19 disease. Also, I don't know why, but apparently 'covid-19' is the name of a disease but not the virus.

I wonder how much sense it makes to think of gaining "herd immunity" if covid-19 is a disease, but maybe not the virus.

CuriousMarch 14, 2020 4:53 AM

Someone posted this news yesterday in the "old" friday thread, I thought it made sense to also add it here. I also wanted to wait until today before I posted this.

("Judge Orders Immediate Release of U.S. Army Whistleblower Chelsea Manning After 1 Year in Jail")
https://www.democracynow.org/2020/3/13/headlines/judge_orders_immediate_release_of_us_army_whistleblower_chelsea_manning_after_1_year_in_jail

But are they going to put Manning in jail now, again, anyway if the accumulated fine isn't paid?

CuriousMarch 14, 2020 5:04 AM

Correction: I believe I made a bad faux pas above where I referred to reddit. :|

So the type of reddit threads I was referring to wasn't specifically about country x literally attacking country y, but about accusations where the virus originated.

AlejandroMarch 14, 2020 5:29 AM

With SCOTUS blessing, I see GOOGLE is going to get a no strings tap on our medical and personal data with some BS app they have conjured up to TRACK coronavirus testing.

No doubt google's corporate TOS and (no) privacy policies will apply.

CuriousMarch 14, 2020 5:54 AM

Btw, the overall idea of "herd immunity" re. covid-19 was commented at length on twitter by somebody, which is interesting I think, but it fails to convince me:
https://twitter.com/iandonald_psych/status/1238518371651649538

Although he point out that there would be a lot of assumptions in thinking how intentional virus spread can be both controlled and also not end up being horrible, he suggests there could be this delicate balance between basically officially allowing the virus to roam in a country over time, while implementing anti-spread measure on and off such as to allow a constant health treatment of people but ideally without bottlenecking this treatement capacity.

I am not convinced by this. Presumably, testing is a big deal, and testing isn't even mentioned there. Presumably, testing would be the easiest part. Surely a modern high tech country can have labs running throughout an entire year for testing and re-testing millions of people? Or they ought to I think.

Presumably, for any tourist or workers traveling to UK and becoming infected, but without there being a vaccine, this would suck for them.
Other countries being re-infected by UK people, not having a vaccine, would also suck for them.
The very idea, although not his responsibility to explain or justify, sounds awefully like a self serving theory. Simply explaining a theory shouldn't be enough I think.

Are countries like Iran and North Korea banned by US and other countries from buying vaccines in general?

Re. testing, how could one even test to see if an individual gained immunity? What does that kind of idea to do testing regimes in UK and in the world at large for detecting covid-19 in individuals? Is immunity just to be assumed, just like one apparently makes assumptions that people are infected?

I also can't help but there is this notion I have, of a state dumping its responsibilities over to the individual, as if, wanting to expoit a potential (stability in general) but delegating risks of injury or death to the individuals (but also other countries).

I am also fascinated now by the thought of being sceptical to any claim of I myself, being immune. How would I "know" if I wasn't at least given a vaccine? And if goals such as achieving a "herd immunity" is going to be an official thing, how can I possibly trust any vaccine, which may as well have just a placebo effect in a "health regime" that thinks infecting people is a good ida?

AlejandroMarch 14, 2020 5:58 AM

Well, so much for listening to the President of the USA!

Seems whatever he was talking about is not true in regards to a Google coronvirus app.

EXCEPT:

Google aka Alphabet aka Verily has a beta app for medical professionals to do something or other.

Details:


https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/google-site-coronavirus-testing-trump-1203533916/

https://www.digitaltrends.com/news/trump-google-coronavirus-screening-testing-website/

Bottom line: Google is working feverishly to get our medical data even to the point of using an alias as a disguise. Just not whatever Trump was talking about.

RobinMarch 14, 2020 6:15 AM

@Anders, and all:

That's an interesting paper, and Chart 7 is particularly powerful, showing the lag between 'official' data resulting from tests and deaths - both of which have inevitable - and variable - time delays, and the estimated 'true' figures.

I imagine that it is papers like this that are prompting sudden policy changes across Europe.

But has anyone seen any kind of 'peer review', albeit informal, of these calulations? They look plausible to me, but I'm a retired control systems engineer not an epidemiologist.

myliitMarch 14, 2020 6:32 AM

@usual suspects. Wesley Parish

“Re: confluence of health and cybersecurity attacks:”, Ignatius recently wrote this:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/we-werent-ready-for-a-pandemic-we-better-be-ready-for-a-cyberattack/2020/03/12/b5f034fc-6496-11ea-b3fc-7841686c5c57_story.html

“Amid the chaos of the coronavirus, it was encouraging this week to see a bipartisan, blue-ribbon commission announce a coherent plan for dealing with the next potential catastrophe — a major cyberattack against the United States.

Covid-19 has given us all a foretaste of what a crippling cyberattack would look like: Transportation, infrastructure and health-care services would all be severely disrupted. We’d depend on good planning, trusted experts and competent leadership at the top — all qualities that have been in short supply in the Trump administration’s response to the pandemic

Democracies often aren’t great at planning; that’s the cruel efficiency of authoritarian governments. But in a welcome change, Congress took the initiative more than a year ago to create a group to revamp cyber policy that would cut across political and bureaucratic lines — drawing in members of Congress from both parties; representatives of defense and intelligence agencies; and top private-sector experts.

This rare exercise in preparedness was known as the Cyberspace Solarium Commission. The name evoked President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s 1953 “Solarium Project” ...”

+1 for Congress, but with President Trump’s potential legal exposure, post-presidency I don’t think he cold simply write his memoirs and enjoy life. He might prefer ‘wag the dog’ type events, new wars, etc., to expand his executive power, manipulate the public, (provide useful spin, stoke nationialism, provide useful propaganda or lies, and so on), and to remain in power at any cost.

Sed Contra March 14, 2020 7:41 AM

@myliit

Democracies often aren’t great at planning; that’s the cruel efficiency of authoritarian governments.

Actually, politically free countries are the only ones “great” at planning, as far as that is possible, and authoritarian governments are mostly just cruel.

Democracy dies in darkeness, of cliches that is. That’s a real security risk.

CuriousMarch 14, 2020 7:43 AM

To add to what I wrote above re. the twitter thread I linked re. covid-19.

The man on twitter discussed his understanding of "herd immunity" and points out how the UK government would want to achieve this or that, and would be relying on that to not only work, but work as expected and also at the time when success is crucial to achieve, and I called this in turn a 'theory'. He uses the word 'strategy' three times.

Philosophically speaking, I think it is pertinent to point out that, the total scheme of it all, ought not be thought of as being a 'strategy' when involving a variety of achiveable things, otherwise you end up with "doing something that you want to do, and calling thát a success". Understanding something to become 'a goal' to be reached or something to become achieved, would imo make sense to be referred to as being 'a strategy', however, ones understanding around the rationale or motivation for having such achievable things, can't really be a strategy in and of itself. Thus the way I see it, the idea of having "herd immunity" in society couldn't be a concept that is in itself 'a strategy' to be referred back to, 'as a real strategy' (as doing such wouldn't make good sense, or so I would argue), when the very understanding of it is obviously dependent on either luck, or speculation, or having to achieve all of the goals and achivements for something to be really successful. I guess the inappropriateness of thinking of herd immunity as a strategy would be similar as if saying that playing the lottery is a strategy for becominig rich, or, maybe just, that the things one *does* or want to to, wouldn't really be what one can call "a strategy". If desperately or recklessly wanting to succeed, whatever one want to achieve, isn't what one can call 'strategy' I think. I also think, speculating in achieving a partial success also isn't something that can be called 'a strategy', or it would be similar to the notion of "moving goal posts".

The English language ofc has different uses when involving individual words and not necessarily being limited to just one type of meaning of a word (disregarding here problems with interpretations between individuals), but I don't see how one could use a word like 'strategy' in a metaphorical way without loosing its original meaning.

I suppose one could also think of somebody wanting to achieve multiple specified things, as being "a strategy" or "the strategy" as such and for referring back to that as a named concept, knowing one actually wanted to achieved every single thing one somehow desired to achieve. But that type of "strategy" and referring to it as a named concept or general idea, can't then be confused with any subset of that strategy (or you would have more than one strategy or really just trying to relate to different ideas alltogehter), and so would be something 'metaphorical' but not really a strategy per se, and I think it is obvious that a stated 'strategy' for the whole, can't possibly be the same as a strategy for achieveing a subset or a partial requirement. I wouldn't trust UK government on such fancy ideas to be explained sincerely. I remember UK's Theresa May abusing the word "aim" some time ago in their House of Commons Breix debates, basically sounding rational as if having an intent, but apparently just pretending to say something meaningful specifically when using the word "aim" but without it possibly signifying any action in particular. As if signifying having a purpose, but not knowing nor explaining what that purpose would be other than claiming to have a purpose in mind.

I think the allure of thinking in terms of "goals" and "achievements" can be deceiving this way, especially among politicians, if being more like wishful thinking and anything speculative, as opposed to being sensible or true. I think improper use of the word 'strategy' could imo make anyones idea of there being "a strategy" something of an oxymoron, if you aren't really referring to or having realistic goals, but instead go for speculative achievements and gambling on success.

AndersMarch 14, 2020 8:08 AM

@Clive @SpaceLifeForm @ALL

How tricky this new virus can be:

www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/13/world/asia/coronavirus-death-life.html

So the best option is to stay among them who don't get infected at all.

myliitMarch 14, 2020 8:16 AM

@usual suspects, Sed Contra.

“ ... Actually, politically free countries are the only ones “great” at planning, as far as that is possible,...”

I suppose that could depend on how you define planning and planning for whom. President Trump, sycopohants, and the crony capitalists that surround Trump, imo, appear good at gaming the system to their profit advantage. To the disadvantage of the, perhaps, other 99.9%, Trump et al. may be laughing all the way to the bank.

myliitMarch 14, 2020 9:03 AM

@Minority 99

“ I don't give a flying fsck about facial recognition ...”

I’m happy for you, however, afaik, that’s not my problem.

CuriousMarch 14, 2020 9:39 AM

In UK:
("Council employee fined £400 for illegally deleted audio file")
https://ico.org.uk/about-the-ico/news-and-events/news-and-blogs/2020/03/council-employee-fined-400-for-illegally-deleted-audio-file/

"A council employee has been fined £400 for an offence under the Freedom of Information (FOI) regulations."

"The requester believed that elements of the written minutes of this meeting had been fabricated, and requested the audio file to see if this was the case. They were informed that the file had already been deleted according to council policy."

"A complaint was then sent by the requester to the Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO) and, following an investigation, the ICO discovered that Young was, after initially denying it, aware of the FOI request and had deleted the audio file some days later."

"This case marks the first ever successful conviction under the FOIA."

No idea after reading this, if anything else was actually altered, or if it was just about a recording having been believed to intentionally have been deleted and to prevent disclosure.

Clive RobinsonMarch 14, 2020 9:40 AM

@ SpaceLifeForm,

I did not know there was such a thing as weak Everclear, but, anyway...

The much older non trade name was "Polish Spirit" or "Genovese liquor" and various states in the US and some nation states have laws about what proof such spirits can be.

Speaking of Polish Spirit and online recipes, courtesy of a friend,

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=avbOwmbWE28

That said, "if and only if" (iff) you are making "hand sanitizer" you can use what in the US is called Denatured alcohol[1], though be carefull which one you pick[2].

I've not checked but I have been told that the fuel used for "alcohol stoves" is probably safest because food preperation is going to happen around it and cross contamination due to spills, cleaning and wiping up are consequently highly likely thus the poison used (methanol) evaporates away at about the same rate as the alcohol (ethonol) thus if the food gets close to boiling during cooking it will be gone.

That said the use of any alcohol is going to cause the skin to dry thus eventually crack. What happens when methanol or other poison gets in skin cracks or cuts I have no idea. I know that in times past "clear methylated spirits"[1] used to be in first aid kits to clean small cuts and grazes, these days it's not which might be a warning, any way I'm not volunteering to be a guinea pig to find out.

Any way, I don't recommend hand sanitizers when hand hot water and hard soap are available. This is because hand sanitizers are very very rarely used propperly thus effectively, whilst the use of soap and running hand hot water is way more effective.

In part this is because hand sanitizers do not "wash off" anything that's on your hands so any virus that was on your hands before you used it is still going to be on your hands after you use it. The hope is that the virus RNA strand has been in sufficient contact with the alcohol and for sufficient time that the virus has been weakened to the point it is nolonger viable...

With soap and water however the soap renders the natural sebum on your hands a lot less "sticky", thus it and any virus attached to it viable or not gets washed down the plug hole, and away from anywhere it can cause you or those around you harm.

Pays your money and takes your choice, indoors on my own for a few weeks looks good to me (in the unlikely event we actually get the virus under control, which only the Chinese and South Koreans appear to be taking any real steps towards).

[1] Also called "denatured rectified spirit" in some places or "methylated spirits" in the likes of the UK and it's old commenwealth nations (ie Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, etc)

[2] Basically poisons and foul tasting chemicals and dyes are added to stop you drinking it. Hence the names like "rot gut" and "blind mans water". The reason being "excise duty" is something like 95% of the cost of the contents of a bottle of spirits is "income for the treasury" for you government to use for buying votes. Many but not all of the "poisons" are only poison if you drink the stuff and evaporate as fast or nearly as fast as the alcohol does.

CuriousMarch 14, 2020 10:10 AM

Covid-19 related:

I don't know the relevance/significance, or if this is really true or not, but there is a recent article of how some Canadians researchers supposedly have isolated the virus for Covid-19 disease, and supposedly making it easier to start developing a vaccine. Story seems legit enough I would think.

("The latest developments on COVID-19 in Canada")
https://lethbridgenewsnow.com/2020/03/13/the-latest-developments-on-covid-19-in-canada-11/

"A Canadian biotech firm says it has produced a viable vaccine candidate for COVID-19."

myliitMarch 14, 2020 10:20 AM

@usual suspects,, innocent, suspect, or other

Thoth’s, lurker’s, Sancho_P’s, Clive’s, etc., recent posts, imo, are interesting and on topic (“‘OT”’), not off topic (“‘OT’”)

CuriousMarch 14, 2020 10:20 AM

I incidentally found a link to this article about the naming convention for COVID-19 disease, and thought it was interesting enough to add it here. Apparently, there was an issue with ending up having more than one designation for it.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/bit-chaotic-christening-new-coronavirus-and-its-disease-name-create-confusion (from february 2020)

"WHO’s chosen name, COVID-19, is just short for coronavirus disease 2019."

Seems the other name used earlier was 'SARS-CoV-2'.

myliitMarch 14, 2020 10:33 AM

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/smarter-living/clean-your-phone.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/sunday-review/mbs-hacking.html

“ News Analysis
The Rise and Fall of M.B.S.’s Digital Henchman
He was the Saudi crown prince’s secret weapon — until he went too far.

Beirut, Lebanon — In 2012, an amateur hacker and poet with an interest in bitcoin, bots and online video games reached out to Hacking Team, an Italian company that sold software that allowed governments to hack cellphones and other devices.

Could the company send experts with “high technical knowledge” to Saudi Arabia to display its wares? he asked, promising that their costs would be covered “from a-z” as “vip guests for the Royal Court,” according to emails later released by WikiLeaks.

The hacker’s name was Saud al-Qahtani and at the time he was a bit player in the royal court of King Abdullah. But after the king’s death in 2015, Mr. al-Qahtani’s power in Saudi Arabia skyrocketed. His new patron, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, deputized him to build an arsenal of new electronic weapons to propel the young leader’s rise.

During that time, Mr. al-Qahtani deployed armies of bots to manipulate social media and oversaw a hacking campaign that extended to ...”

SpaceLifeFormMarch 14, 2020 1:07 PM

@ Clive, Anders, All

As I noted yesterday, in the US, you should not even be flying domestic. Because the planes are infected.

And that NY, DC Metro, Atlanta, Augusta will be hotspots.

Apparently, DoD really is paying attention.

hxxps://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/politics/pentagon-halts-domestic-travel-coronavirus/index.html

SpaceLifeFormMarch 14, 2020 1:43 PM

@ Clive, Anders, All

More on the DoD domestic travel restrictions

Note the timeframe. About 2 months, not 2 weeks.

hxxps://www.defenseone.com/threats/2020/03/dod-halts-domestic-travel-troops-dependents/163783/?oref=d-river

"This restriction will halt all domestic travel, including Permanent Change of Station, and Temporary Duty,” said an
unsigned press statement released with the memo. “Additionally, service members will be authorized local leave only.”

The restrictions apply from March 16 to May 11. Exceptions include travel that is “mission-essential, for humanitarian reasons, or warranted due to extreme hardship,” the statement said.

vas pupMarch 14, 2020 3:37 PM

@myliit, Sed Contra, other interested in the subject respected bloggers

I guess the best way to support your point is not planning, but effectively handling crisis situations, e.g. recently building in less than 2 weeks modern (21 century) hospital from scratch for 1000 beds in China. But only crisis handling required authoritarian methods for effectiveness. I guess POTUS understood that and finally declared emergency situation.

In normal life flow I'll stick to optimal combo of free market methods for short time prospective planning (including stock market - hedge fund managers are not my favorite folks) and government long term planning with setting up general priorities for the whole country and enforcing them through primary fiscal methods: flexible taxation depending on whole country long term priorities.

Time and again: stick working in a short time only, for long time you need carrot, i.e. personal initiative.

By the way, do you know that founding fathers of US put in very compact Constitution protection of intellectual property?
If no, just read over attentively all Constitution, not just Bill of Rights. And there were at that time neither Internet, no computers, AI, smart phones - you name it.

SpaceLifeFormMarch 14, 2020 3:44 PM

@ Clive

See any new side channels?

hxxps://www.pcworld.com/article/3518831/how-intels-changing-the-future-of-power-supplies-with-its-atx12vo-spec.amp.html

CuriousMarch 14, 2020 3:48 PM

Covid-19 related

FOIA man Jason Leopold on the following. Article dated yesterday 13. March 2020.
("Here’s How The National Security Agency Will Protect Itself During A Pandemic")
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/jasonleopold/nsa-coronavirus-influenza-pandemic-plan-protect

"The Department of Health and Human Services has recommended that intelligence community personnel have at least three months’ worth of food on hand in the event of an uncontrolled pandemic." (What the guidelines said years ago I guess.)

"The NSA did not respond to a request for comment about whether the contingency plan it issued a decade ago has been updated and if it can be applied to the coronavirus pandemic. However, an official with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which oversees the intelligence community, told BuzzFeed News the agency intends to implement guidance issued by the Office of Personnel Management to ensure the intelligence community’s “mission remains uninterrupted.”

I wonder what a "pre-pandemic" vaccine could be (shown in a slide). I wonder if there is such a thing, as a partially effective vaccine.

vas pupMarch 14, 2020 4:01 PM

@Bruce and other interested bloggers:
Collaborating with a team of rivals can resolve conflict -- and advance science
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200309152054.htm

""If people are willing to get in a room together and debate their differences, science can be improved," Fiske said. "Given that we've all been published in reputable journals, we never thought of it as one theory being right, or the other one being wrong. Instead, we thought there would be subtle differences in how these theories play out. After our week together, that's what we found."

Fiske's work has long shown that people form stereotypes based on how they perceive the other people's competence and warmth. Yet, her adversarial collaborators pointed to other perceived factors such as ideology. Or they broke down warmth into being trustworthy and friendly. Or advocated morality over everything else.

Fiske and her co-authors reached the agreement that the perceived competence of the person/people being considered is clearly one factor in determining stereotypes. A second factor at play is some form of warmth or trustworthiness. This could depend on shared political beliefs, depending on the situation.

Perhaps what's most important, however, is that the researchers were able to reach an agreement at all. By engaging in "adversarial collaboration," a concept pioneered by Princeton's Daniel Kahneman, a prominent psychologist and Nobel Prize-winning economist, they were able to design research to answer unresolved issues.

By engaging in the new idea of "adversarial alignment" of their theories, they determined that none of them were invalid. Rather, each theory is valid based on the situation, or the different circumstances in which one theory on stereotypes should be employed over the other.

The methods have clear implications for academia, as well as for policy and the media. Adversarial collaborations on data and adversarial alignments on theory both can enhance scientific credibility among journalists, the public, and members of Congress, which is especially important in an age of misinformation and distrust, the researchers said.

"We used the behavioral science of multi-party negotiations to resolve our own polarized science, building on the models' shared insights that we needed to respect each other's competence and trust each other's intentions," Fiske noted. "Contrasting viewpoints on policy, politics, and social norms might profit from our experience as a 'team of rivals.'"

My take: read the whole article for details. In short, they just confirm difference between argument (zero sum game) and deliberation (discussion without prejudice) for mutual gain.

Time and again: "Without freedom of thoughts there is no such thing as wisdom" (Ben Franklin)

vas pupMarch 14, 2020 4:21 PM

@Clive, S Contra, other interested bloggers:
Seismic imaging technology could deliver finely detailed images of the human brain
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200306122612.htm

"Earth scientists use seismic data and a computational technique called full waveform inversion (FWI) to map the inside of the earth. Seismic data from earthquake detectors (seismometers) are plugged into FWI algorithms that extract 3D images of the Earth's crust that can be used to predict earthquakes and search for reservoirs of oil and gas.

Now Imperial researchers have adapted this approach to medical imaging, developing a method that uses sound waves with the ultimate aim of producing high-resolution images of the brain.

They built a helmet lined with an array of acoustic transducers that each sends sound waves through the skull. The ultrasound energy that propagates through the head is recorded and fed via the helmet into a computer. FWI is then used to analyze the reverberations of the sound throughout the skull, constructing a 3D image of the interior.

The researchers tested their helmet on a healthy volunteer and found that the quality of the recorded signals was sufficient for the algorithm to generate a detailed image, and they are confident the scattered energy from the brain will be interpretable.

Using computer modeling, they also found they could obtain high-resolution images with sound frequencies low enough to penetrate the skull at safe intensities.

Study co-author Professor Parashkev Nachev, of UCL, said: "This is a vivid illustration of the remarkable power of advanced computation in medicine. Combining algorithmic innovation with supercomputing could enable us to retrieve high-resolution images of the brain from safe, relatively simple, well-established physics: the transmission of sound waves through human tissue."

@Clive: could they modulate those signals with information and change your mind? Just curious - as usually all technologies are two side coins.

SpaceLifeFormMarch 14, 2020 4:28 PM

@ Clive, Anders, All

Security Theatre

(note his wife situation, touchscreen, easy bypass)

hxxps://mobile.twitter.com/ezralevant/status/1238633775090651140

SpaceLifeFormMarch 14, 2020 5:29 PM

@ Curious, Clive, Anders, All

As I noted, cross-training is important, right now.

Note NSA is DoD.
Fort Gordon (Augusta, GA) is a big NSA op.
11 Days ago, they started a modified gate procedure. Gate guard to *NOT* touch ID Badge if possible, use a gate scanner.

@ Clive, What can go wrong?

---

Some workers would be asked to do jobs they don’t normally do to “staff critical mission functions” for the NSA.

...

A slide titled “Pandemic Severity Index” ranks threat levels. The top level is at “Category 5” — at which at least 2% of infected people die. “Assuming a 1918-like pandemic and no effective response,” the document said, more than 1.9 million Americans would die and 9.9 million others would require hospitalization.

[Well, just over a decade ago, I doubt the US healthcare system could deal with over 10 million. Certainly more problematic today. What were they smoking?]

La AbejaMarch 14, 2020 7:12 PM

@Wesley Parish

if the article from Mother Jones does not cover the security aspects of the coronavirus pandemic, I don't know what does.

The Coronavirus Crisis Is Bernie Sanders’ Message in a Nutshell

What's this all about? Paid your church tithes and your soul is safe and secure in the arms of Jesus? Is this some obscure clerical oath of poverty, chastity, and celibacy? Kissing the pope's ring much? The organization & hierarchy of the RCC were already morally and financially bankrupt before they started stealing grand sums in earnest from Protestants and other targeted individuals and offering so much money and other worldly compensation to have us beaten to death, shot and killed, poisoned, drugged and kidnapped, or otherwise murdered.

I don't know either if it's some obscure theological question of faith without works, or if their works are evil because they are done in bad faith.

The gun control rackets, the extortion rackets, and the protection rackets have to be stopped along with the heathenish Title IX tokens of "respect" for the ladies required as the religious professionals offer such bona fide entertainment geared to the parishioners and gentleman of the district who give a wink and a nod consent to abortion as the pregnant mother crosses herself by the golden figurine hanging in her naked cleavage.

JonKnowsNothingMarch 14, 2020 8:21 PM

@Clive @All

re: What Clive has already indicated in past Squids is now being reported in MSM: Older folks are gonna get the short straw.

I've now seen several articles starting to make the front internet pages about the non-survivability of older people with COVID19. Clive and others pointed this out a long while back that the need for oxygen support for the Cytokine Storm means there are not enough of these systems to support elderly patients.

The Herd-Immunity concept of letting lots more folks get it, basically means, killing off the ones who's bodies cannot fight the virus without industrial support. Now the MSM is beginning to pump up the concept that:

Mom and Dad are gonna Buy the Farm PDQ.

MSM reported on Italian Triage:

In Lombardy, for example, some beleaguered hospitals have been forced to impose bans on ventilators for coronavirus sufferers aged over 60 – this despite knowing that it is predominantly the elderly who will die.

Other than there's not much one can do about it, an interesting left-over will be the economic fallout.

The Moms, Dads, and Grandparents, are the Banks for younger folks who are struggling with Austerity Economic policies. They also provide shelter for those that cannot afford to live on their own. They provide "free" child care, taxi services to and from schools, sports, etc. They are also consumers of Big Pharma drugs. They provide tuition for schooling and vocational education. They also help fund medical treatment for expensive inhalers and the accoutrements of youth and youth medicine. They provide support systems for adult members who are out of work, redundant or sick. They buy stuff too. Even vacations on cruise ships to exotic regions.

When a huge percentage of older folks go to that great digital server in the sky, the planet is going to lose a lot of intellectual resources and knowledge. It may even be like some of those old Star Trek shows were no one knows or remembers how to make the widget work because no one has ever seen a book before.

Disclosure: I am over 60. I do not expect any herd immunity because the whole herd has to get it for the die off to take place.

I have and been involved with horses for most of my life and I know all about herd immunity: it's a fake concept. What you get is a lot of very very sick horses, some that never recover. The ones that don't recover are sent to the Kill Pen. Unless the cause is something that does build antibodies, you can have the same illness sweep the herd every year affecting those that do not have antibodies. Strangles happens every year, immunization helps but you can have vaccine failures too. If your horse does get strangles and survives, giving it a future vaccine can cause serious and deadly side effects.

So, in farmer-rancher lingo: They are setting up Kill Pens/Triage for those who are sick, over age and past their useful date.


ht tps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome

Cytokine release syndrome (CRS), also known as an infusion reaction,[1] is a form of systemic inflammatory response syndrome that arises as a complication of some diseases or infections, and is also an adverse effect of some monoclonal antibody drugs, as well as adoptive T-cell therapies.[3][4] Severe cases have been called cytokine storms.

ht tps://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/talk-about-death-coronavirus-covid-19-nhs-doctors-patients

ht tps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-outbreak-inequality-austerity-pandemic

ht tps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-outbreak-older-people-doctors-treatment-ethics

ht tps://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-11/italy-doctors-coronavirus-covid-19-quarantine-milan-health/
(this site was referenced, I did not check the link)

ht tps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strangles

Strangles (equine distemper) is a contagious upper respiratory tract infection of horses and other equines caused by a Gram-positive bacterium, Streptococcus equi.[1] As a result, the lymph nodes swell, compressing the pharynx, larynx, and trachea, and can cause airway obstruction leading to death, hence the name strangles.[2] Strangles is enzootic in domesticated horses worldwide. The contagious nature of the infection has at times led to limitations on sporting events

ht tps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pigeon_fever

Pigeon fever is a disease of horses, also known as dryland distemper or equine distemper, caused by the Gram-positive bacteria Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis biovar equi.[1] Infected horses commonly have swelling in the chest area, making it look similar to a 'pigeon chest'. This disease is common in dry areas. Pigeon Fever is sometimes confused for Strangles, another infection that causes abscesses.

(url fractured to prevent autorun)


lurkerMarch 14, 2020 8:41 PM

@SpaceLifeForm: ATX12VO

One vendor noted that controlling noise on the PCB could be a challenge,
so that's one who's awake. One reason for generating all the rail voltages in the one tin box PSU was to keep the noise in there, including maybe sidechannel noise.

La AbejaMarch 14, 2020 9:57 PM

the need for oxygen support for the Cytokine Storm means there are not enough of these systems to support elderly patients. ...

So, in farmer-rancher lingo: They are setting up Kill Pens/Triage for those who are sick, over age and past their useful date.

I question the need for industrial welding supplies to sustain life. Deep-sea diving is an exceedingly dangerous occupation, and natural air has enough oxygen to replace that exhaled as CO2; any more puts the human body dangerously out of balance.

They also have "hyperbaric" and various other "gas chambers" at hospitals with convenient explanations of supernatural mortality by "natural" causes other than premeditated mass murder.

Of course we all get sick and die one day; this life is not forever, but they are definitely setting us up in kill pens, quarantines, hospitals, and such sites with that intention to cause us to die before our appointed time.

Clive RobinsonMarch 14, 2020 10:27 PM

@ SpaceLifeForm, ALL,

Apparently, DoD really is paying attention.

Not realy suprising, also the "local leave only".

People should understand that,

    The military especially soldiers are the "insurance of last resort" for a nation in any national emergancy.

It takes a little while to get your head around the implications of that statment, because of the depth to which they go. Specifically that they are there for "the good of the nation" not "the good of the citizens".

Even though soldiers are poorly payed they are highly valued as a "National Resource" at such times. Like any other "force multiplying tool" they are effectively agnostic to use, including their own survival. They are there to serve the whims and wishes of "the directing mind" who ever or what ever that may be.

That is why two things are important,

1, Obayance without question to the chain of command.
2, Preserve above all others the chain of command.

When you see things through these two rules you will understand why those orders have been issued in the way they have.

@ Curious, ALL,

With regards,

"Here’s How The National Security Agency Will Protect Itself During A Pandemic"

Err nothing realy new there since my days back last century, when providing for "stay behind in place/situ" or "prepared place".

It's also why a couple of weeks ago I was talking about "90 days" of ready to eat food that does not require cooking or rehydration and is heavy in fats and protein.

I Also gave the rational for such a length of time in a pandemic which is three to five times the time for longest virus surface viability incubation and infectious time[1]

But basically for "in place/situ" your calorific and dietary needs are less so you need 1kg of such no cook no rehydrate (basically canned) food per person per day. Preferably these foods should be high in fat and protein as these reduce appetite or high in micro nutrients such as canned tomatoes spinich. You also need vitimin D supplements as you won't see sunlight in issolation, and some zinc and vitimin C, along with "brewers yeast extract" (marmite) for Vitamin B-3 / niacin, which can also be found in lesser quantaties in peanut butter, and beer, which stops the development of pellagara or "share croppers disease". There are other micro nutrients but there are some "whole foods" that cover many of them such as potatoes and avocados

But food alone is not the only thing you have to worry about in a pandemic. Two things come in from infrastructure which is energy and water and two things go out human waste and garbage. You need to also prepare for the loss of these, because most involve humans for them to run effectively, and they too could be sick or in quarantine, thus these services can and eventually will fail.

Starting with water, as you die in 3-7days without it. You need 2kg of safe pottable/white water to survive "in situ" which when you multiply it out for a family of four is 4 x 2 x 90 ~= 720kg or ~3/4ths of a ton as a bare minimum for nothing else other than drinking.

However the CDC indicates you need upto another 2kg of pottable/white water per person as a minimum. This is for two basic reasons, the first is if you are going to rehydrate foods like rice and beans or flour and cook them to make them safely edible (which also requires the storage of considerable fuel). The second is if you are going to do hard physical labour or be in a non temperate zone you will need an extra 1-2kg per person a day. Which is why the CDC talk about 1 US gallon (~3.8kg) per person per day minimum or 4x3.8x90=1368kg or 4/3rds of a ton.

But you also have to have pottable water left over for cleaning cookware and eating utensils around 1kg per day for a family of four (90kg). If you add in minimal personal hygine of a flannel wash every day at 0.25kg and a minimal "navy shower" at 2kg once a week you are looking at 193kg say 300kg for both.

So say with a spillage alowance 1.1x(1400+300)=1870kg of pottable water for a family of four for 90days. Or nine 55gallon (210ltr) drums/barrels or if using a 1000kg tote/bowser two of them, just for the very basics of living.

However there is little point in cleaning your body if your clothes are in an unsanitary condition for various reasons. Unfortunatly cloths washing is very water and energy consuming... Even very small load portable/camping washing machines need around 20-30kg of water and 46watt hours of energy peaking at 250-300watts.

With the portable / camping washing machines you can actually recycle much of the water. That is rinse water can become wash water and light wash water can become heavy soiling first wash water. However a "load" for such a machine is about 4 sets of teeshirts, undies and socks. so 140-210kg of water a week unless you recycle the water. Importantly water for washing cloths does not need to be pottable or even fully clear, just filtered and lightly steralised (few drops of bleach an hour or so before use). As drying kills bacteria as does sunlight and time for viruses.

Also if you add a small quantity of bleach to the waste cloths wash water to kill any bacteria etc, you can store it in "settle" tanks and "filter" it back to almost potabble water with the resulting water either being used to wash clothes again or flush toilets, or feed a solar still. It can also be used to spray plants as an insecticide if you wash cloths with "soap" not "detergents".

Further in times past people wore loose natural fiber clothing especially underware such that you could wash them rather less often. Outer clothing if hung to air and rotated daily can go 10-50 wearings befor they need to be washed, certain natural fibers such as wool can be much less frequently washed (some all wool jackets etc made from the likes of Harris Tweed never get washed neither did blankets etc). Some fully synthetics can be washed with very little water as they do not absorb sweat thus hold smells or pathogens. In the case of socks heavy wool socks can be worn over very light poly-cotton socks, with the poly-cotton being changed/washed daily and the wool only occasionaly. In some armed forces in the past recruits were taught how to use their wooly socks as a flannel to wash their bodies with when having a "navy shower" and also tread wash their underwear in the water that ends up in the container they stand in, whilst I would not suggest anyone go to those extreams it does show how water can be recycled with a little thought.

As for water in it's also used for flushing human waste out very inefficiently. That is you need between 6 and 9kg of water per flush which is over twice your other daily water usage. Most of this water is actually used not in the house but as a "hydrolic bolus" which acts like a plunger or ram to drive the waste down pipes with small incline and transport it miles away. Which is why you need to think about the use of non potable or grey water (rain water and waste washing water) instead as well as significantly reducing the number of flushes... (the old "if it's yellow let it mellow, if it's brown flush it down" saying).

Further think about fully seperating liquid and solid waste. The U-bend in a toilet holds about twenty times the amount of clean water a urinal does and the U-bends real purpose is as a vapour or gas trap. likewise when you look at the design of earlier urinals they were often just a funnel at the end of a pipe into a soil trap that alowed the liquid to drain into a "wet" cess pit, the only water used was when they were cleaned daily with a chlorine or caustic solution, and there was a reason those old outside toilets were called "thunder boxes" as all they were was a box with a hole in the top over a "dry" cess pit which actually barely smells if you add a couple of handfulls of sawdust or compost over what you have produced. The modern equivalent which has been developed for third world countries is "Humanure" systems, which are entirely waterless and I will let people look them up if they are interested... You can also look up the US army field medical handbook that has all sorts of usefull information about hygine and waste from all aspects of an encampment of soldiers "living in the field"...

Which tells us that for each soldier the combined waste average is about 100lb a day... Which sounds like a lot but includes all sorts of "garbage" that needs disposing of including from vehicle repairs etc. Most household garbage is clean and can be stored away as it does not attract vermin. However food containers will attract vermin if they are not cleaned. It was pointed out to me years ago that if you make a meal from tins, you can using a little hand hot water, clean one tin into another tin and so on and the resulting liquid go into the cooking pot where you could thicken it with a little flour or a crushed up digestive or similar biscuit. This advice was not for "cleaning the tins" but in part a simple measurment system for recipies but also getting maximum flavour/nutrition from the tins in times of hardship and making the food feal more than it was to go that little bit further. However the result is clean tins, which with a little squirt of diluted bleach and then air drying will not attract vermin when bashed flat and stored.

This leaves the issue of energy, which is a complex issue in it's own right. Lets put it this way you don't want to be storing flamable fuels indoors especially those that are gasses or volatile liquids. Also you don't want to burn fuels in modern homes that lack suitable ventilation to deal with combustion products like carbon monoxide. Even candles and oil lamps for emergancy lighting represent real dangers, cooking considerably more and as for heating just scream and run out of the room atleast you will be alive in the morning... If you must do cooking and heating either install a proper stove and flu or build a rocket stove or similar outside and put a long coil in it's upper chimney to heat water in a propper storage tank that can then be close circuit pumped or gravity pumped into radiators. Yes there are ways you can use "in tent camping wood stoves" indoors but they have short flues which can have real spark and creosote issues over and above the fact the flues get hot enough to set things on fire, so unless you realy know what you are doing don't go there. Also "space heating" your home is very inefficient you get better effect with a blanket or duvet and a hot water bottle or two even when sitting in a chair. A rocket stove running on twigs can heat a litre or two of water in just eight or twelve minutes put that in hot water bottles in bed will keep you warm all night even if the inside temprature is below the freezing point of water. When winter camping I found hot water bottles and a good nights sleep much preferable to getting up every couple of hours just to put more wood in a small wood burning stove, abd that was before you factored in finding dry wood cutting and chopping it etc. That "wood warms you twice" saying is much over rated, trust me on that one.

Oh the reason I give measurments by weight rather than by volume especially for water is "storage" two tons of water and nearly half a ton of canned food is quite a weight, that you can not just "put in the spare room" you need carefull thought about not just reinforcing floors for structural strength but how you access things thus the weight of shelving and stacking boxes etc, then there is light, temprature, humidity and most importantly pest control. These were all things our great grandparents and grand parents implicitly understood back in WWII and their parents and grandparents lived by as "pantry living" when there was no universal refrigeration back over a century ago when we had our last world wide pandemic.

So diging out a 1900 or earlier "Mrs Beeton's Book of Household Management" or later "garden to kitchen" manuals and reading them will give you an idea of just how "convenient" our modern food, water and energy infrastructure has become in just under a century and a half.

[1] We need to note that this is a virus with characteristics we have not seen befor and breaks the 21day or less virus/bacteria behaviours we most frequently see and have previously planned for.

Currently we think for SARS-CoV-2 the time for longest virus surface viability, incubation and infectious but not syptomatic, and symptomatic untill recovery or death times are 9, 27 and 28 days. So with full medical care a maximum of 36 days in community prior to 14-28 days medical issolation. However without medical care we beleive the 95 percentile times are 7, 7-12.5 non symptomatic and 7-14 days symptomatic which gives 21-32.5days. Either way gives a minimum of 98-108days issolation or if things drag out for various mismanagment reasons a max of 180days, by which time in situ issolation becomes untenable. However the max very very rarely happens and if it does normally a "second infection wave" will get cut short very hard and quite brutally. More importantly is the question of "resupply" in all but an existential threat senario --in which case it does not matter-- the governing forces will have stabilised re-supply or re-location to those it deems "of worth". So 3months or 90days is likely the longest in situ for those "of worth". If however you know you are not "of worth" or are planning for existential type threat issolation then you are looking at a minimum of four families and 2 years with half a year at 2kg of food per "working person" a day as you will be digging around four acres of ground and planting seed, tending crops and praying hard there is both a harvest and no predation by creatures or marauders (so guard duty as well). Oh and get used to the idea your protien source will be rodents and larger predating vermin because they will come to you and you can trap/snare/cote them rather than you wasting calories hunting larger game...

La AbejaMarch 14, 2020 11:31 PM

@Clive Robinson

1, Obayance without question to the chain of command.
2, Preserve above all others the chain of command.

That depends on how assertive the soldiers are of their Constitutional rights at court martial. It sounds almost like a joke in poor humor, but there's a lot of that these days, arbitrary criminal charges coming out of left field, personnel set up and framed by enemy operatives.

The troops are armed. They do get a trial by a jury of their peers for any criminal charges, and furthermore the military police cannot as a general rule afford to make themselves enemies of a majority of the private troops.

It's not so much a "labor union" per se, but any military force does have (and needs to have) a great solidarity among its personnel to achieve its goals.

The men and women are armed, and sworn to uphold the Constitution, not to follow arbitrary orders to the letter without thinking of spirit or consequences. No great mass of private troops (of any nation) can or will stand to be arbitrarily abused by a few at the very top ranks.

Clive RobinsonMarch 14, 2020 11:37 PM

@ SpaceLifeForm,

See any new side channels?

Where would you like me to start on this "Oscar Sierra"[1] plan.

I know lets talk about efficiency.

In electrical circuit theory there are two things you can do with energy,

1, Disipate as heat in a resistance.
2, Store it in a reactance (inductor or capacitor).

The idea with a SMPSU is to turn your AC input wave form by rectification into a DC voltage on a capacitor as efficiently as possible. Thus you use a rectifier with very low impedence and very low turn on voltage, and you use a capacitor with a very minimal ESR (effective series resistance). You can get this up to some quite high efficiences, and the higher the AC voltage the more efficient it is (as the turn on voltage is proportionally less). Likewise the less current you draw the more efficient it is as there is less voltage drop and dissipation in the impedece of both the rectifier and capacitance. So far so easy...

Now to generate another voltage what you do is pulse width modulate this DC voltage into an integration circuit which is basically an inductor and capacitor as a lowpass filter. This is effectively the same as a "Class D amplifer output".

Now without going into lots of mathmatics the higher the frequency you switch at the more efficient the lowpass filter is, however as the switch has a finite switching time the higher the frequency less efficient it is (it's the same as with CMOS logic gates in the CPU chip the power disipated thus the heat and inefficiency goes up with frequency).

Thus there is a "technology sweet spot" which gives a frequency window for optimum efficiency.

However there is a secondary issue which is what happens when the "load" on the PSU output changes?

Well that is dependent on several things, one of which is the nature of the load in terms of impedence and more importantly it's effective reactance. But the upshot is "the higher the loop bandwidth" in the PSU output the more efficient it is.

Now a high loop bandwidth makes the the the output switching more transparant backwards towards that capacitor and rectifier.

Which means the SMPSU on the motherboard close to the CPU will put much more of the CPU noise on the power supply line and at much increased frequency and rich in harmonics. So the track on the motherboard back to the connector will act as a better antenna to such signals and their harmonics.

So yes, I expect there to be,

1, Higher bandwidth.
2, Higher frequencies.
3, Greater harmonics.
4, Much more efficient rasiation
5, Much greater cross talk.

All of which means "more noise", but this is not "random noise" but "determanistic noise" that carries significant information about the running process.

So yes I expect to see Technion University in Israel making their "Pita Bread loop" work at a much greater range. So I predict yet another paper comming from there, as well as lots of "compromising eminations" comming from Intel's new "Oscar Sierra" technology designed into new motherboards, with a focuss on greater efficiency".

It's now over a third of a century since I started warbing about the big issue of "Efficiency -v- Security" I guess somebody did not get the memo ;-)

[1] Oscar Sierra, is the international phonetic alphabet saying of "OS" however in the armed forces it's a short hand euphemism for "Oh 5h1t" used as a "portent of doom". So why Intel included the "Oscar" might well be a portent in it's own right ;-)

Clive RobinsonMarch 15, 2020 12:22 AM

@ Curious,

With regards,

I wonder what a "pre-pandemic" vaccine could be (shown in a slide). I wonder if there is such a thing, as a partially effective vaccine.

It depends on what you define a vaccine as... Various people have different interpretations and to some it's anything injected to ward off an infection before you get it.

Traditionly a vaccine is a defanged version of the pathogen, that looks the same or nearly the same to your bodies immune system but does not have the virulant pathology. Thus your bodies immune system builds antibodies to the defanged pathogen such that when the real virulant pathogen enters your body you already have effective antibodies to it and thus you are not a viable host to it and you are thus immune to it.

However there is something else that can work a similar way. Lets say I've been infected and recovered my blood is full of antibodies. Now if I can transplant my antibodies to you they will kill the virulent pathogen in your system. The problem is there is no guarantee that my antibodies will get your immune system to make more of the same antibodies. Worse your body might see my antibodies as a pathogen in their own right and turn on them. However it's known that Chinies sirologists are investigating taking out recovered peoples blood, seperating out the plasma and returning the red blood cells. They then process the blood plasma and sepetate out the likely antibiodies for injecting into other people who are seriously ill with the disease.

But there is another way to boost your immune system for a while and that is an injection of Immunoglobulin / Gamma Globulin,

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamma_globulin

They used to be given to people going to certain countries to help ward of some forms of hepatitis. However they do boost the immune systems in other ways, the downside as with injecting harvested antibodies is "what else goes with it" which can include as yet unrecognized or unscreenable disease (hep-C HIV etc).

Lastly your immune system can be boosted in other ways. One of the problems of our more indoor lifestyle other than short sightedness is lack of vitimin D which our immune system needs to function. Obviously in "lock down" you are not going to see any sunshine thus vitimin D will drop. Also vitimin B3 can drop due to reduced dietry vitimins.

Thus a bolus injection of vitimins can pep up a flagging immune system quickly. It was once thought that such an injection had percistance, well more modern evidence suggests three days to a week maybe for vitimin D whilst the taking of tablets however is many times more effective but take a little while to start to work.

So it could mean any or all of the above. But currently we don't have a vaccine propper for SARS-CoV-2 we have some computer models and a lot of scientists beavering away. But even if a viable candidate appeared today, it has a long road of tests ahead which will be a year to a year and a half in duration and might not produce anything worth while or it might have significant side effects like clinical shock followed by sepsis or organ failure.

The problem we also have is that we also do not yet have an antibody test which makes quite a few medical procedures more complicated and of higher risk.

Sherman JayMarch 15, 2020 12:54 AM

@Clive and @SpaceLifeForm,

Maybe I'm talking about another context than your SMPSU discussion about 'other voltages', but I just bought some very small (~1/2" 13MM long X 3/8" 9mm dia.) inline modules that convert 6VDC-12VDC to 5VDC at 3amps so I can power a raspberry Pi mod3B+ from a 12V lead acid battery pack. And, for low current applications I've used a DC voltage regulator semiconductor chip (sometimes with a heatsink) to 'clamp' higher DC voltage to a usable lower voltage. Neither of those seem to generate much noise.

However, all that might be difficult to do outside a motherboard or as surface-mount components on a motherboard.

I know that motherboards often use slight voltage conversion to synthesize the CPU chip low voltage from a slightly higher voltage from the PSU.

But I don't like the idea of doing a lot of noisy power manipulation/conversion outside the relatively shielded environment of the PSU metal 'box'.

myliitMarch 15, 2020 2:30 AM

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/infighting-missteps-and-a-son-in-law-hungry-for-action-inside-the-trump-administrations-troubled-coronavirus-response/2020/03/14/530c28b4-6559-11ea-b3fc-7841686c5c57_story.html

Infighting, missteps and a son-in-law hungry for results: Inside the Trump administration’s troubled coronavirus response

March 14, 2020 at 9:15 PM EDT
The economy was grinding to a halt. Stocks were in free fall. Schools were closing. Public events were being canceled. New cases of the novel coronavirus were popping up across the country.

And then, on Wednesday, the day the World Health Organization designated the coronavirus a pandemic, Jared Kushner joined the tumult.

President Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser — who has zero expertise in infectious diseases and little experience marshaling the full bureaucracy behind a cause — saw the administration floundering and inserted himself at the helm, believing he could break the logjam of internal dysfunction.

Kushner rushed to help write Trump’s widely panned Oval Office address to the nation. His supermodel sister-in-law’s father, Kurt Kloss, an emergency room doctor, crowdsourced suggestions from his Facebook network to pass along to Kushner. And Kushner pressed tech executives to help build a testing website and retail executives to help create mobile testing sites — but the projects were only half-baked when Trump revealed them Friday in the White House Rose Garden.

Kushner entered into a crisis management process that, despite the triumphant and self-congratulatory tone of public briefings, was as haphazard and helter-skelter as the chaotic early days of Trump’s presidency — turning into something of a family-and-friends pandemic response operation.

The administration’s struggle to mitigate the coronavirus outbreak has been marked by infighting and blame-shifting, misinformation and missteps, and a slow recognition of the danger. Warring factions have wrestled for control internally and for approval from a president who has been preoccupied with the beating his image is taking.

The scramble for solutions is occurring in an overriding atmosphere of trepidation of saying something that Trump might perceive as disloyal and of fear that their fumbles could cost the president his reelection in November.“

myliitMarch 15, 2020 2:40 AM

Oops, the above is a quote from a longer article by

Ashley Parker,
Philip Rucker,
Yasmeen Abutaleb and
Josh Dawsey

name.withheld.for.obvious.reasonsMarch 15, 2020 3:15 AM

Judicial Efficacy, Less Integrity and Fidelity to Law
15 Mar 2020 GNU 2.0 Open Commons, Unrestricted: Submission by contributor

Under the rubric of jurist prudence, using the color of the rule of law, the hearing that was held in Woolwich, England, the presiding judge (Baraitser) demonstrates what the defendant's lawyers say is a political case. The very procedural malfeasance occurring at the hearing IS a political persecution happening at the same time that the defense claims there is political prosecution of the defendant.

The judge's deference to procedural integrity cannot be defined as defensible, fair, unbiased, or legally and juridically correct. Reading findings from a prepared statement at the hearing clearly shows that irrespective of the litigants arguments, testimony, and factual discovery has no place in the court at Woolwich, or anywhere for that matter. If ever a case for judicial miscarriage and malpractice, this is it. When the prosecutors are more sympathetic than the court, the venue is tainted and the conduct is well beyond legitimacy. It makes a mockery of law and elevates clownish bafoonery (sp?) to new heights. The judge should be remanded to an inferior court for public abuse of office, at a minimum.

Both the prosecutor and defense were given dismissal and disdain absent sufficient judicial efficacy and the judge proceeded to pre-ordain the summing of facts. Thus the summing up managed to be unencumbered by fact. As the arguments presented
in the hearing have yet to complete, evidence is still to be presented some of the allowances will be essential to the case. But as the judge is predisposed to a conclusion, any sense of juridical fidelity is without witness.

name.withheld.for.obvious.reasonsMarch 15, 2020 3:43 AM

I'd be curious if an organization, government, or pharmacological company were to announce in the NEAR future (or are the first) that a vaccine had been developed for the COVID-19 strain. Not unlike some anti-virus software that has in the past offered a solution to a bug, later to find out that someone in their organization let the thing loose, a profit or economic advantage would be attractive and worth entertaining.

But hey, what RNA markers are going to be around to prove the source encoding or codon sequencing?

JonKnowsNothingMarch 15, 2020 4:25 AM

On a completely different topic than COVID19...

@Clive @Bruce @All

I've been following the story of a MET Police Officer who was convicted of having child porn on her phone. She was forced to register as a SO and has now been terminated from her position in law enforcement.

What is unusual about this case is the following:


  • The images were sent by her sister. The sister found the video and sent it to a dozen people trying to get someone to "do something" about it. One of the people was the MET Officer.
  • The sister did not know that sending this information over the internet is illegal and the sister was convicted of sending the prohibited video and is now a registered SO.
  • The MET Officer never looked at the video (forensically checked) and said she didn't even know it was on the phone.
  • The prosecution agreed the officer is not a pedophile and has no interest at all in that aspect.
  • The officer was convicted because the video was on the phone, even though she did not look at it and said she was unaware it was on the phone.

There are several other nuances to this case but that's a generic overview.

Apple and others are now implementing UWB Ultra Wideband blue tooth data transfers. The Apple phone got spotted turning on-off the geolocation tracking during one of the recent updates. Even if you had location OFF, every 2 minutes or so, the phone flipped it back on. (This is supposed to have been fixed in a more recent update)

The reason they flipped location tracking, is that UWB requires location to be on in order to sync up with any "eligible" device within @20 ft.

  • Ultra-wideband is used for "see-through-the-wall" precision
  • Ultra-wideband characteristics are well-suited to short-distance applications, such as PC peripherals
  • UWB is currently being tested for Signaling of the New York City Subway.
  • UWB enables a high-data-rate personal area network (PAN) wireless connectivity

The concept presented was being able to airdrop images or text or videos from 20 feet away. So you and your friends can be sharing distant tables at *$ and still flood each other with all sorts of fun images.

What seems to me to be a huge security hole is:


  • No matter what they indicate about the status of the phone, we already know they do not honor OFF.
  • If you are airdropping and almost by definition this will be insecure even if you are locked down to family and friends, the transmit will be doggy
  • The potential is that someone can drop an illegal file, images or other digital document onto not only 1 phone but the entire PAN.
  • That person may just be able to piggy back on to the UWB and maybe unknown to the PAN group. The PAN group may not even be aware anything is amiss.

Given the legal difficulties presented and findings of "it's your phone, it's your ownership even if you didn't actually do anything", there is a potential for blackmail, coercion and all sorts of nastiness.

The first things that LEOs want is your phone. They take it into a different room. You cannot see or know what they do with the phone. They can download or upload anything to it. They demand all passwords so they can by pass any safety measures you have set. Claims of child porn are nearly guaranteed to cause problems and obscure the "real attempts" to block such material.

The new proposed EARN-IT US legislation may also feed into that loopback.

While LEOs have been known to salt-evidence, this particular method would not even require physical access provided the phone was targeted specifically and the drop made in the background only to be found when they "check your phone" officially.

Turning OFF the UWB does not mean it is off. Apple is not the only company that has services running in hidden mode even if the option is OFF, the service is still running. Like instant-on electronics, it's ready to wake up on demand.


ht tps://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/04/met-officer-faces-sack-over-child-abuse-video-despite-appeal

ht tps://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/13/police-chief-robyn-williams-sacked-over-child-sexual-abuse-video-despite-support

ht tps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultra-wideband

ht tps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_area_network

A PAN provides data transmission among devices such as computers, smartphones, tablets and personal digital assistants. PANs can be used for communication among the personal devices themselves, or for connecting to a higher level network and the Internet where one master device takes up the role as gateway. A PAN may be wireless or carried over wired interfaces such as USB.

(url fractured to prevent autorun)

Clive RobinsonMarch 15, 2020 7:02 AM

@ Sherman Jay, SpaceLifeForm,

Neither of those seem to generate much noise.

The noise we are talking avout, is not from the regulator it's selfe but from the Intel CPU which unlike the Broadcom chip in the Pi is a realy thirsty beast with excessive power swings.

It's why I said "determanistic noise" rather than "random noise"

The passive solution to "noise problems" is use a very low series impeadence capacitance across the EM band "From DC to near daylight"[1] as close to the noise source as possible, and feed it through a low impedence inductance from the power input side. Thus if you draw up the effective reactive impedences at any given frequency as resistors you see what is a simple pi attenuator from the signal source (CPU) going back to the bulk low impedance capacitance just after the rectifier.

However on computer mother boards designers are pushed for space which means any effective passive filtering components will be kept as small as they can or actually smaller thus active techniques are used as well, which causes other problems[3] for security.

All of these problems are made worse because Intel make power hungry CPU's with all their "go faster stripe" marketing specmanship circuits that have to run at the same speed as the ALU. These "go faster stripe" circuits are the very same circuits that cause the likes of Meltdown and Spector, that either can not be fixed, or only partly fixed by partially turning off the go faster stripe technology. Either way the result is you loose the marginal performance gains but not so much of the power consumption.

Bringing in "stringent higher efficiency" legislation is actually a bad move, because after a certain point you are "just moving the problem" from power consumption during use to more power consumption in manufacturing.

A point legislators realy don't care about because it takes the problem out of their "back yard" and dumps it in somebody elses back yard... It's the same issue as poor EPA legislation causing toxic waste problems in third world and other nations.

[1] A sensible RF design engineer going back a few decades would actually use several capacitors of different types, a low ESR electrolytic, a polycarbonate, a silva mica and ceramic were used their values chosen to give filtering across the bottom GHz or so of the EM spectrum. This is because all capacitors are imperfect and have internal inductance thus are in effect tuned circuits and past resonance look inductive, so you need a lower value of capacitance to compensate and so on.

[2] Whilst design engineers still try to do passive filtering where they can, they are constrained by size and price. In surface mount devices some capacitors are more expensive than chips likewise inductors... Thus when it comes to price sensitive "Fast Moving Consumer Electronics" (FMCE) they are very much built to use the minimum of passive components... So to get below the regulatory "noise masks" for EMC compatability they resort to "cheating the test" by using spread spectrum clocking of primary oscillators that spread or "whiten" the harmonics and subharmonics across the band[3] thus reducing the power density at any given frequency over a period of time rather than actually reduce the peak RF energy.

[3] As I've explained in the past the use of spread spectrum, might bring the peak RF energy down at any given frequency, it is a reversable process if you know the "chipping sequence" and can synchronize to it. If you do use spread spectrum whitening you are in effect turning the signal source into a Low Probability of Intercept (LPI) transmitter which used to be used for "covert transmissions" to "hide the signal below the noise floor". The thing is "whitening" uses a very short well known "chipping sequence" from a Linear Feedback Shift Register (LFSR) which is very easy to synchronise to. The net result is you actually make the range of any "covert side channels" considerably greater, and the old trick of hiding the privacy sensitive computer in amongst non sensitive computers not work any longer.

AndersMarch 15, 2020 9:57 AM

@Clive @SpaceLifeForm @ALL

nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/only-1-case-turkeys-coronavirus-coverup-disaster-waiting-happen-131817

AlejandroMarch 15, 2020 10:02 AM

@Curious et al

Below is but one of dozens of vaccines in the works. The problem is, testing and trials takes millions of dollars and a lot of time, so big pharma reject requests for trials because they figure the epidemic will be over before the medication can be approved and released. And, they are usually right. Obviously government intervention is needed.

Texas-based company has reportedly created a coronavirus vaccine

https://nypost.com/2020/02/20/texas-based-company-has-reportedly-created-a-coronavirus-vaccine/

"Scientists at Greffex Inc. — which has a corporate headquarters in Houston and a laboratory in Aurora, Colorado — completed the vaccine this week, ...Now the vaccine will move to animal testing by the necessary government agencies..."

Sancho_PMarch 15, 2020 10:38 AM

@Clive Robinson

”… and symptomatic untill recovery [or death] …”

So what about recovery, what does it mean? Immune?
Or back again after first contact? Endlessly? (*)
Two strands? Twice the loop?
Officials seem to avoid that topic.

(*) My 1+1 math would have been useless then. But consequences?

Sancho_PMarch 15, 2020 10:45 AM

@JonKnowsNothing, re CP “conviction”

That’s the classic “possession” issue, like one cop talking to you and the other coming up with white stuff in a plastic bag “found” in your trunk.
Or the cookie jar they found in your kitchen with traces of the crystals.
Or the (spam) email you’ve simply deleted but was containing a link to CP or a bomb plot.
If they want, the’ll ruin our life, no doubt.

What EARN-IT may change is that they and other criminals then could alter context or send genuine “E2E NotEncrypted” (E2ENE) messages in your name, too.
Criminal’s heaven, who loves it?

Sancho_PMarch 15, 2020 10:55 AM

@Clive Robinson

I think the issue here again is monopoly, but this time not in company / brand thinking.
The PC (phone) evolved to the universal machine for everyone and everything, and inside there is a single multi-mighty beast nearly no one can control and very few really need and use completely.

Multiuser, multithreading, general purpose , all fit OS? Check.
16 cores to run 20+ apps simultaneously? Check.
Ultrafast GPU for gaming? Check.
GB networking? Check.
Voice to text with auto spell check and grammatical correction? Check.
HD/4k+ camera for photo and video? Check.
HiFi and video streaming up and down? Check.
Remote management, TPM, CP protection? Check.
Strong encryption? Check Check Check! (*)

(*) In SW, using just part of one CPU core.

CuriousMarch 15, 2020 12:28 PM

US Airport face scanning. Article from March 12 this year.

("The Government Has a Secret Plan to Track Everyone’s Faces at Airports. We’re Suing.")
https://www.aclu.org/news/privacy-technology/the-government-has-a-secret-plan-to-track-everyones-faces-at-airports-were-suing/

"Unlike other forms of identity verification, facial recognition technology can enable undetectable, persistent government surveillance on a massive scale. As this technology becomes increasingly widespread, the government can use it to grab unprecedented power to track individuals’ movements and associations, posing grave risks to privacy and civil liberties."

ChrisMarch 15, 2020 1:45 PM

Morning, Afternoon, Evening folks

Reading about this Corolla Light virus and trying to get myselfe around what actually is going on, I still think i was correct when I said that the only thing that happens is WHO and UN will get more power, and I think i was correct

Anyhow not fund of spreading more rumours i found this anentertaining read:

hxxps://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/edward-curtin/keep-it-simple-and-question-propaganda-technology-and-coronavirus-covid-19/

//Have a nice Sunday

AndersMarch 15, 2020 1:52 PM

@Clive @SpaceLifeForm @ALL

mobile.twitter.com/JasonYanowitz/status/1238977743653687296?p=v

Learn from Italy, because without acting the same situation comes
to you.

I hope everyone here knows wheat and chessboard problem?

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat_and_chessboard_problem

Isolate yourself socially, insist working from home, starting NOW.

Sed Contra March 15, 2020 1:54 PM

@myliit @ vas pup et al

In regard to politica freedom, authoritarian or rather totalitarian regimes, efficiency, security, one might find it worthwhile to consider the remarks of Jimmy Lai.

SpaceLifeFormMarch 15, 2020 2:28 PM

@ Clive, Anders, All

My recommended plan of action.

Global Plane Autoclave.

You have one week to get your arse to your home base. No more flying.

Prepare to be at your home base for 2 months.

Stop all commercial flights for 2 months.

All planes then should be parked on tarmacs for at least 3 days in hot sunny conditions, hopefully raising the temperature inside the patient (the plane) to 120 degrees Fahrenheit, 49 degrees Celsius.

Because, it appears that !02F/39C is not enough to kill the virus.

And there is no way to guarantee that it is possible to disinfect an airplane ventilation system.

So, we stop travel via plane, even domestic.

Because, we want to kill the virus, and because the weather will not be that hot in a given area, the planes will have to be moved around over two months.

Planes that are in a hangar that have been used this year should receive the same treatment. They should be pulled from hangar.

If we fail to do this, it will come back.

Sed Contra March 15, 2020 2:47 PM

@ SpaceLifeForm

Just get the UV systems in place.

Noticed recently home contractors are promoting hospital grade A/C filters and UV installations.

Sherman JayMarch 15, 2020 2:47 PM

@Clive and @SpaceLifeForm,
Using a low-tech method, I put an ancient 'transistor radio' on top of my desktop PC, turned the volume up and tuned it to a high unused freq. I then opened a file that plays in a large program. I could hear the noise change dramatically and in sync with the activity on the screen. I believe this probably confirms what Clive said, that the biggest 'coherent' noise source is the CPU not the power supply.

I wonder, how many devices are emitting 'coherent' readable signals and how far away the signal can to detected and 'decoded'? The house I live in is twenty feet (~8 meters?) from the next house (luckily those neighbors are not at all likely to be 'crackers' or spies). Of course, free wifi in a crowded public space is another matter.

MarkHMarch 15, 2020 3:21 PM

In re pandemic:

German media are reporting that the Trump administration offered big money to obtain exclusive access (for U.S. use only) to a vaccine under development by a German private company. The German government has already come out in opposition to any such scheme.

It's madness all the way around. According to every expert I've heard, the likely timeframe for first availability of a medically sound vaccine will be for the winter of 2021/2022. However, Trump has made numerous statements suggesting that he either doesn't understand, or doesn't believe, the facts concerning required development time.

The approach of pitting nation against nation is about as bad a way to respond to such a crisis, as can be imagined. It may take some time to verify these reports, if indeed they can be checked ... but the ugly atavistic attitude would be consistent with the present regime.
______________________________

@Sancho_P:

The extent to which contracting Covid-19 confers any future immunity is a question of great interest to public health researchers. They just don't have the data yet, to make any judgment about this. Of course, considerable calendar time is necessary in order to form a comprehensive understanding of this question.

So if "officials seem to avoid that topic," it's probably because they don't have any useful information to offer.
_________________________________

@SpaceLifeForm:

With the proviso that all info is subject to revision, as research continues:

Although the possibility of aerosol transmission of SARS-Cov-2 has not been ruled out, the present judgment of epidemiologists seems to be that community spread is via wet droplets. In other words, if anybody at all has gotten sick from dry (aerosol) virus particles, the incidence is probably so small that it doesn't matter to the rate of spread.

Accordingly, the possible presence of this virus in airliner ventilation systems is unlikely to be significant.

In wet droplet transmission, people get sick by either (a) being within a meter or two of a coughing person sick with the virus, or (b) touching surfaces where droplets have landed and then transferring the virus to their own mucous membranes.

Practical remediations for passenger planes are to disinfect the surfaces passengers are likely to touch*, and making hand sanitizer ready available.

Of course, the safest practice is to avoid public transportation (including airlines) to the greatest feasible extent.

* I habitually wipe down tray tables, arm rests and the like for my seat with disinfecting moist wipes whenever I fly.

Clive RobinsonMarch 15, 2020 4:46 PM

@ Sancho_P,

So what about recovery, what does it mean? Immune?

It's a good question and needs to be looked at from two angles at least,

1, In terms of the patient.
2, In terms of those around the patient.

With a fly in the ointment called "mutation" into a new strain (which we know has already happened in china which is why there is what is assumed to be the original "S" strain and later "L" strain which is may be both more virulent and more transmissible).

If we look at the patient for each virus they go through a number of stagest from infection to either death or recovery. With a "novel" or "new to you" virus you have absloutly no defence except by very small chance of genetics. Therefore in most cases your immune system has to recognize there even is a pathogen this starts happening as the replicating virus starts destroying cells in your body, the process is a little involved but you end up with an antibody system, which as part of it's process causes cytokine to be produced which in turn effects the hypothalamus which is your bodies regulator, it signals for more white blood cells to be produced and also for your body temorature to rise, the way it does this as I know only to well is first you get the chills and even rigor which causes your body temprature to rise as even a slightly elevated temprature has a disproportionate effect on the viability of a virus.

Part of this process is the virus replication. Initially when a virus replicates it remains in the host as there are sufficient cells for the virus strands to invade. Eventually there is so much replicated virus it comes out of the hosts body via a process called "virus sheding" and this is when you become infectious to others. When this happens is variable with SARS-CoV-1 it was as you developed a fever thus you were easy to spot and contain thus get on top off before it became a serious problem. However with SARS-CoV-2 you are infectious before you develop a fever or any symptoms at all, worse your symptoms might be so mild you may not notice them. The question thus arises as to when does the virus replication inside you slow and stop as this obviously changes hou infectious you are, as far as I'm aware this is still a bit of an unknow.

But eventialy the antibodies you develop will attach to the virus and drag it to white blood cells that scavenge it, at some point there is no more virus inside you and any fresh infection gets scavanged before replication causes any issues. At this point you are immune and you are also not infectious.

There is a complicated series of formulars that predict how many uninfected hosts can exist in a population of people that are a mix of,

1, Uninfected thus viable hosts. 2, Infected and thus infecting.
3, immune thus nolonger infective

Without becoming infected. As they do not get reached by an infectious person. From various models this appears to be between 15% and 40% of the general population "in year one"

This is supposadly the notion behind "herd immunity" which some totaly moronic politicians think is the way to go as it does not involve them making decisions that involve diverting resources "to the social good" rather than to "the effective criminal benifit of the few".

Thus from other figures we know that such behaviour will neither contain or delay the spread of the virus.

But these models assume only a single strain, and we know there are atleast two strains in China... Which is where things get both complicated and unknown...

Usually you either have atibodies to a particular strain or you don't, which is what the models are for. If however there are two or more strains the following can apply,

1, You have no immunity to second strain, thus you become infected and infecting just like any person who has not been infected by either strain.

2, Your antibodies work effectively against the new strain so you do not become infected or infecting.

3, Your antibodies only work partially against the second strain and the white blood cells get coopted into replication, thus your immune system fails horribly

Look again at option three, this means that people who had no, few or minnor symptoms the first time go directly to "critical medical support" which means the "at risk group" expands to all those that have already been infected by the first strain. Thus rather than the 17% that need hospital care with the first strain it may well rise to more than 50% for those that then get the second strain...

So appart from the "unknown" factor this potential for a now wastly increased CFR is making people extreamly cautious of making comment.

But the current pressumed single strain figures are also making people less than honest about the potential outcomes... To see why consider the following,

With an expected 17% to +20% of those infected requiring medical support for "oxygen therepy" that can only be given in hospital, the hospitals will quickly become saturated. The result of which is the Case Fataliry Rate, or if you prefer the numbers "at risk of dying who do die" will rise rapidly. That is with timely medical intervention for all, the CFR is likely to be significantly below 1% of hospitalized population. However without medical intervention it's going to be higher than 5% possibly north of 10% if the figures from Italy are anything to go by, and most of those who do die will be in those over 45 with the bulk of deaths being 55-65 year range.

So with some saying 80% of the population are expected to get infected, of which 20% are expected to need medical intervention of which 10% will die...

Thats 0.8 x 0.2 x 0.1 = 1.6% of the general population mainly in the upper 20% age range of the population dying. So 16,000per million. Or a little under a million deaths in the UK and probably 5.28million in the US.

However some people are saying that the infection rate in the US will be higher due to,

1, People fearing job loss if they take time off sick.
2, The cost of a Dr's visit being a day or mores take home wages.
3, An ER visit being upto a third of what they earn in a year.
4, To get a COVID test the FDA requires all other potential illnesses to be ruled out first.
5, The cost of these ruling out tests the patient has to pay for.

Even though the COVID test might be free according to some politicians. Compare that to South Korea where you just go to a "drive in" and get the results within 48hours resulting in a very low CFR.

Now I don't live in the US and I don't work in a "zero hour gig" minimum wage or less job that has no healthcare etc. Likewise living in a nation with a National Health Service "for all citizens" I can not tell if the above barriers to healthcare are accurate or not. But if they are I pitty everyone that lives there the next three to six months are going to be rough realy rough.

Because look at it this way that 1.6% of total population is realy 8% of the 20% of the population over ~45 years old irrespective of income or healthcare plan...

I don't know how the older readers on this blog feel about that but that's what the information we have so far is telling us... Hence the reticence by many to say what it is we know, and cross their fingers that some existing drug is found to work against SARS-CoV-2 or that the drugs companies rather than hold out their hands for Government money before they get into vacine testing will just get on with it (which I realy think they will not when they can hold out for a big tax funded pay day...).

AndersMarch 15, 2020 4:48 PM

@MarkH

www.businessinsider.com/trump-administration-tried-to-pay-germans-scientists-for-coronavirus-cure-2020-3

SpaceLifeFormMarch 15, 2020 5:23 PM

@ Clive

"But eventialy the antibodies you develop will attach to the virus and drag it to white blood cells that scavenge it, at some point there is no more virus inside you and any fresh infection gets scavanged before replication causes any issues. At this point you are immune and you are also not infectious."

But, really, really taxes your kidneys and liver.

Sick PigMarch 15, 2020 5:31 PM

@MarkH

In re pandemic:

That's a legal issue, not a medical issue, unless we're all so sick we need to be punished into wellness, health, and recovery by our superb modern epidemiological // criminal justice system.

German media ... German private company. The German government ...

Yeah. Let's just say Gesundheit and quarantine all those bloody Germans on 9/11 public health charges. Extraordinary rendition without the niceties of due process in such times of emergency bathroom runs and vomiting distress will allow our experts to properly discipline them into better health and mental well-being.

Refusal to consent to mandatory federal vaccinations will, once again, be grounds for a NICS record and automatic lifetime denial of the right to possess firearms.

AndersMarch 15, 2020 5:33 PM

@Clive @SpaceLifeForm @ALL

Guess how well there in that BIG line virus spreads...

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8113399/Chaos-13-funnel-airports-lines-long-six-hours-plane-baggage-claim.html

Sancho_PMarch 15, 2020 6:04 PM

@Sherman Jay

All AC devices emit “coherent” readable signals, the distance to detect them is a matter of effort / cost. The other point is the decoding which is even more costly and probably fruitless.
Imagine streaming music into your LAN while watching a video, now the browser’s JavaScript “encrypting” the pwd before sending may be hard to “decode” from the top of your PC, let alone from your neighbors home - even if you are a person of interest.

As an example what it needs and what they are willing to do:
https://media.ccc.de/v/36c3-11247-technical_aspects_of_the_surveillance_in_and_around_the_ecuadorian_embassy_in_london

Sancho_PMarch 15, 2020 6:12 PM

@MarkH, 3 points:

1 - After 3 months and the Wuhan/Hubei experience they don’t know?
Hard to believe. This is an existential question.
If I had survived once without sever problems I’d be first candidate to test the theory. Chinese are much braver than us and have bright scientists, too.

2 - I found your reply by chance, as I usually search the “100 Latest Comments” for my handle, then skim the (100) posts but usually skip Trump gossip.
I only saw your answer after clicking @Sherman Jay’s “transistor radio” post to understand his question/motivation.

Anyway, thanks for your reply!

3 - ”… (a) being within a meter or two of a coughing person …”
Just talking generates a lot of (mostly) fine droplets, standing for probably minutes in the air. I doubt they would go through the aircraft circulation system as wet particles.
But the (not) distance between passengers plus duration of flight …

Sancho_PMarch 15, 2020 6:17 PM

@Clive Robinson

I didn’t see official (EU) confirmation of the two strands. I heard only once an expert in TV, after offending the person which asked, mumbling the differences, if any, would be too small to be of importance.

”… over ~45 years old irrespective of income or healthcare plan...”
Well, some 1% neither have nor need a standard health care plan, the’ve access to ER facilities anyway.

When I understand correctly this is the bill we oldies have to pay for having had a good life. Let’s call it the Greta bill and hope for a better world afterwards.

JonKnowsNothingMarch 15, 2020 8:00 PM

@Clive @All

re: Sudden heart attack death after COVID19

Early on in the reporting, at the start when no one knew much except a lot of folks were dying, there were sporadic reports of sudden death from heart attack after recovering from COVID19 or perhaps as part of the progression of the illness.

I have seen nothing more in the MSM reporting about this. It may have been that the overwhelming nature of the virus made it seem that folks were having heart attacks when the true progression was different.

I recall reports of people falling over in the middle of the streets, people who were supposed to be healthy otherwise. I remember some MSM images purporting to be of folks that keeled over with no warning.

Has there been any determination of longer term damage to the heart from the virus? Is there any connection with sudden death from heart related issues and the virus?


note: Heart attack can be a generalized term and there are lots of different reasons for them. Most reasons are from a blockage. It was not specified what where or how the heart failure occurred. The generic term used was "sudden death from heart attack" (iirc-badly).

MarkHMarch 16, 2020 2:15 AM

@Sick Pig:

Well, this isn't a medical blog. In my judgment, the discussion most relevant to security is about:

1. the unthinking -- or at least, insufficiently thought out -- reactions provoked by a scary rapidly-moving threat, and

2. how to determine the most constructive protective actions for individuals, organizations, and states.

Government responses (and non-responses) to the present crisis have had, and will continue to have, gigantic consequences.

If a government is attempting moves likely to cause more harm than good, I see that as on-topic.

People who've made careers studying epidemics seem to agree that transparency, the generous flow of needed resources, cooperation and coordination at all levels, and good public information are the "best medicine."

Today, a troglodytic zero-sum policy increases the danger to all humanity.

@Sancho_P:

To study post-infection immunity, I suggest you would need a good-sized population (100+, I suggest) that was confirmed to have the new virus, and has fully recovered. The moment when such a population first came into existence is a LOT less than 3 months ago!

Scientific truth takes time to discover.

Sitting near a coughing person -- whether on a plane or anywhere else -- is a risk best avoided, especially if that person isn't wearing a surgical mask.

However, based on what I'm picking up from the experts, sitting in a cleaned cabin of a plane that carried sick people on the previous flight is unlikely to be hazardous, even if no special precautions are taken with the ventilation system.

Clive RobinsonMarch 16, 2020 2:16 AM

@ JonKnowsNothing,

Is there any connection with sudden death from heart related issues and the virus?

There are no peer reviewed or other papers to my knowledge even discussing let alone attributing heart problems with the virus. But then I would not expect there to be as it's "novel" to humans and has only been around for a very short time.

But one thing to remember is that long prior to the viruses existance sudden death by heart ceasing to function is not exactly unknown. That is something like 40% of near fatal and fatal heart attacks have no attributable cause... and happen in otherwise healthy people. A friend who is a bit of a fitness and proper eating nut and has been since their early teens and did long distance running and cycling as hobbies had their first full on heart attack in their mid twenties and has had two subsequently. Despite extensive tests no attributable cause.

Which brings us to,

I recall reports of people falling over in the middle of the streets, people who were supposed to be healthy otherwise. I remember some MSM images purporting to be of folks that keeled over with no warning.

That's something that you could say is "close to my heart"...

I used to be very physically active walking 20miles a day or cycling a hundred and more at weekends, as well as playing a couple of very active sports I had thigh measurments of 29inches each which was more than my then lady friends waist measurment of 20 inches. When I was in my early twenties I collapsed for no apparent reason I was fine one moment and less than thirty seconds later deeply unconcious on the floor, finally waking when an ambulance crew arived. When having a significant Medical a couple of years later, on the excercise bike I was bending and breaking, my heart rate went up from a resting 45bpm as expected to around 80 then as I carried on giving it everything the Drs were supprised to see my heart "shift gears" down to just 40bpm and then climb back to around 48 as I continued to put ever increasing amounts of power into the bike, my breathing also changed becoming slower and much much deeper (I had a very large lung capacity and actually broke an expensive piece of medical measuring eqyipment...). The Drs considered it "odd, but one of those things". Not much happened untill my mid thirties when very early one saturday morning in a hurry to get a report out I'd been working on over night, suddenly it felt like my heart was "break dancing" it's way out of my chest. I tried to stand but instead colapsed over the computer keyboard, I got myself to hospital much later that morning where blood enzimes suggested I might have had a "cardiac event" (or damaged a muscle excercising). Another decade passed and I passed out again, this was the start of an increasing in frequency series of such events. Which with other medical complications due to a damaged immunes system, I was spending one week in five in hospital. All sorts of tests came up negative, they put in a set of stents and six months later another set of stents. They did "tilt table tests" and all sorts of neurological tests including sticking near 200volts across my body. Still they had no clue and things carried on. Eventually unbeknown to all the heart must have started to deteriorate. I actuall passed out in hospital on one occasion but due to somebody not setting the equipment up correctly for me and the design engineers of the equipment screwing up, the data for the eppisode was lost, all they knew was that my heart rate dropped below fourty and my blood preasure likewise fell to very low values all below "alarm values" unfortunatly a software error ment that what was logged was not the actual values but the alarm values... Another half decade passed and I ended up face down in my local supermarket, an ambulance arived and I was hooked up to an ECG that showed I had AF which is a potential killer which I had demonstrated to me in the hospital resuscitation section of A&E where I had two "cardiac events" in very quick order. I can assure you that being concious when you "crash" is a somewhat interesting event I was just joking about not being a horse with the consultant when they were about to inject me with ketimin prior to trying an inversion when the beeps stopped and that flat line wail came from the machine by my head. I tried to sit up but having the bed smash out flat and drop a foot or so in free fall, then being pushed flat hard and having a fist smashed into my chest chest by a consultant in her thirties whilst shouting at nurses to inject various drugs into the IV line was shall we say a bit memorable. I had kind of recovered my composure and said I desperatly needed to go to the toilet when the beep beep stopped again and we all looked at the machine as that flat line wail started again... This time my heart just started again by it's self having stopped for ten seconds or so... The consultant decided to stabalise me and call in the big guns, whilst I was still alive. I ended up on the cardiac critical ward wired up like some chicken in a crazy lab experiment about five yards from the nursing station, each heart beat was skipping and jumping in my ears and it was like a mad house Chinese water tourture and everybody waited to see what would happen... Nothing very much did, the drugs and vitimin supliments got the heart managable. The result I've still got AF and that break dance pulse rate but at the time they stuck a "reveal device" in my chest, and I decided that "taking it easy" was my number one priority. Then one day there was an urgent message to get my carcus upto the hospital as fast as I could. The reveal device that talked to the hospital via mobile phone had recorded a series of cardiac events. Put simply my heart just stopped for 5-12 seconds and then started again for no apparent reason and did this several times. Anyway I presented myself to the hospital around lunch time I was immediatly admited and the following morning it was down to theater to have a pace maker fitted that kicks my heart if it trys to go below 60bpm... And no they still have no idea why my heart behaves this way... The joke I have with the medical techs is which is going to last longer me or the battery, their money is on the battery :-(

Any way as an RF design engineer having a pace maker fitted realy realy limits what you can do... As the likes of a 1kW transmitter with a slow pulse output down below the MF band can get into the pace maker likewise so can just a few watts from a GSM base station antenna... Just as well I've got communications security design as a second string to my bow. The idea of "early retirment" or retirment at all horrifies me, because in my head I still feel like I'm in my twenties...

The point is such events happen rather more frequently than most people are aware of.

But I do remember the details of a couple of the Chinese medical staff deaths. Due to a lack of PPE they were not eating or drinking on shift and working twenty hour shifts with only a few hours rest in between for days on end. It's entirely possible that they got dehydrated and this caused clinical shock and blood clots in organs.

As a side note, atleast on researcher is putting together evidence about the high death rates in Iran and Italy. Their hypothosis is the use of Steroids and NSAIDs respectively to do "fever managment" is alowing the virus to behave much more aggressively.

If the hypothesis is valid, then it might be the deaths in some Chinese health care works might also involve the use of NSAID drugs as well. As I've mentioned in the past few weeks I've been wanting to know what advice there is over "anti-inflamatories". Especially as none has been comming forward it was becomming a concern. It might be that my concerns over some anti-inflamatories and the effects they have on the heart and blood supply have been validated...

name.withheld.for.obvious.reasonsMarch 16, 2020 6:47 AM

Measured response, reservations internally and personally clouds the water and makes the following statements difficult to broach. In thinking about the NCOVID-19 issues the thought that intelligence agencies already hold massive social mapping data. With directed graphs and bayesian representations of existing persons and using the enumerated positive cases could not a selector or two provide a mapping of potential community and non-community propagation?

I hate, and with all my person, that this suggestion has any relevance. It is preferable that I stick knitting needles in my eyes than suggest that there is a rational use of this illegal and unconstitutionally acquired information. But, I will put it out there for others to ponder.

CuriousMarch 16, 2020 7:33 AM

So, I wonder: What is the importance of having a pre-existing plan against a pandemic in this modern society on planet Earth? Surely that would be an interesting question about security? And what about Iran/North Korea and Palestinians that afaik are under sanctions from other larger countries, pretty sure those are also included in society, or I missed the proverbial memo that claimed that they aren't.

In local news/media where I live in Europe I see there is this idea of promoting 'solidarity' and not 'egoism', which I argue risks being potentially deceptive or just dumbing things down too much. I think I get the point of asking for "solidarity", but it would be imo unfortunate choice of words if ending up treating 'egoism' as such as a polar opposite of 'solidarity' (admittedly two different things, but hardly excluding egosim anyway, or so is my point). Afaik, there is a difference between 'egotism' and 'egoism'. So, basically a difference in thinking of yourself and only caring for yourself. I find the notion of not caring for yourself, so that you care for the rest of the populace, to be weird and wrong.

I would think that, society is dependent on people being sensible in the first place, and so I think egoism will stay in fashion so to speak no matter what. People also aren't robots, so their work require themselves to function like an adult human being like before. It seems obvious to me that it would be unfortunate, and also wrong if later on using a call for 'solidarity' as a pretext for authoritarian rule by facsism (telling people what to do and maybe worse).

The local monarch held a tv-speech recently, and unsurprisingly I thought it was a little weird. Iirc, he sometimes like saying vague things, or such is my impression anyway. If one doesn't think too much about it, the speech sounds like it would encourgage people and I guess that is a good thing, and for comforting those that maybe don't know what to think about things. However the monarch apparently thinks he himself is not a part of the authorities, using the proverbial "we", but not "you", I thought that was weird. Also the monarch explains that there is this proverbial and a special 'need' for everybody to trust one another for stopping the spread of the virus, but also explicitly for trusting the government in making good and wise decisions. This last part is imo dumb, as if the idea of everybody just inherently trusting everybody else could possibly solve anything other than blindly accepting public instructions or some marching orders so to speak. Pretty sure I can and ought to question the reasonableness of my government. At least it would be reasonable to expect them now to have a good and wise plan, and ideally having a plan from before the pandemic happened, because an idea of just seeing what happens onwards wouldn't be appropriate for me anyway. Ideally, I don't want to even expose myself to an fairly unknown virus. I still have 2 cubic meters of scale model kits to build.

It seems to me that, my government wasn't prepared for a pandemic, and requiring everybody to just trust everybody else, doesn't seem like a sensible thing that will really solve anything in particular, so I think that rhetoric is off. How hard would it be to have had a good and wise plan against a pandemic beforehand? Or, is there such a plan, but where is it, I would like to see it. The monarch claimed things being 'unreal', but I wonder what would be more unreal, a lack of a good and wise plan before the pandemic, or the pandemic?

Things obviously suck with the risk of some novel virus that maybe could have more serious health complications, but still no reason to panic for me, or, I personally find it difficult to get too excited, in a world that apparently thinks war is just totally ok, as long as it happens on the other side of the planet. This kind of absurdity doesn't make me want to trust anybody really.

CuriousMarch 16, 2020 7:43 AM

@JonKnowsNothing & Clive Robinson

I vaguely remember someone discussing some weeks ago on youtube, the prospect of a virus potentially infecting the heart muscle and thus drastically weakening it, which iirc, I think was speculated to cause people to have dropped dead in Asia (not something I know anything about). Hm, I think this was a discussion about a virus mutating. So I am thinking, maybe it could be one of many less probably complications of bascially any virus infection. Whether or not that makes good sense in medical theory I woudln't know. Not something I worry about, but I guess it could end up happening to a few.

Clive RobinsonMarch 16, 2020 9:52 AM

@ Bruce, ALL,

One of the problems with a "stressor" like COVID-19 is it quickly shows up systems and processes that lack resiliance,

https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/16/21181300/microsoft-teams-down-outage-europe-remote-working-coronavirus

Put simply the underlying issue is the same mentality behind "JIT" and "LEAN" in physical supply lines (which back all ICT systems).

The upshot of this is if the "cloud" and similar systems you rely on for your "Plan B" or "Plan C" become stressed then your "emergency plans" become only so much ink on pieces of paper, or worse bits in a "bag of bits" system you can nolonger access.

As I've pointed out several times in the past and more so currently "Nature has been around for many millennium prior to mankind, and in that time overly efficient system have become extinct" it's a lesson MBA courses should teach Wanabe C-suite types.

What I have also pointed out in the past many times is that puting vital infrastructure systems into lowest cost mode to maximise short term profit is a very bad idea.

I know as do several others that many "social distancing" plans by companies to get staff "home working" just to keep the company on "life support" let alone functioning are all based on the likes of Microsoft "teams" and equivalents from AWS and Google.

Those who designed these plans made several assumptions,

1, The claimed performance of such systems are not resilient under sudden changes of use, so SLA's are worthless under stress.

2,The providers of such systems are 100% dependent on very long "supply chains".

3, The providers of such systems have "optomized their work force to the bone".

Thus the suppliers can not respond to a step change in loading or other stress. But it goes further.

4, The suppliers of such services are aware of their potential legal liability to their staff, so they to have been switching over to "home working".

5, The limit of responsability of such service providers is the "demarc" in their communications suppliers box in the basement.

6, The communications supplier is in exactly the same state as the likes of the service provider.

7, Both of those are dependent on the supply of energy.

8, Whilst a service provider and comms supplier might have back up systems, the likes of fuel, for generators etc has it's own long and complex supply chains.

9, Nearly all these supply chanes are dependent on communications service providers to keep the chain running.

10, Due to depressed oil prices what might have been "spare capacity" to up the resilience of the supply chain in bulk transport tankers, has been leased out to oil producers as emergancy storage capacity so they can keep oil pipelines and refineries functioning (they effectively die if they stop).

I could go on but you can see a "perfect" "thousand year storm" building...

The only ways to stop this storm are,

A, Remove the stressor.
B, Go on a "war footing" to ensure the right things happen in the right way at the right time.

Untill a week or two ago only China and South Korea took anything close to the necessary steps to stop the stressor. With one being a "dictatorship" and the other a "democracy" it kind of proves the point it is not a "political ideology" issue but one of "competant command" The US, UK, and most of Europe were lementably absent from the "field of battle" against SARS-CoV-2 and containment did not happen when it should have. In essence the political structures abdicated on their duty of care and responsability to lead, and protect their nation states. Some European Nations have now switched up their responses but still too few are behaving reactively not proactively. As for the US and UK I don't think that the respective political leaders know how to lead and show direction, just "in-fight". Thus this pandemic will almost certainly become endemic this year, not just in the third world but the first and second worlds as well, because unless you can contain the virus to rob it of hosts it will just carry on "oportunisticaly" crossing any and all boarders physical, economic or mental.

Further I realy don't think a vaccine will be forth comming unless the major industrialised nations do go on a war footing. Because the drugs companies know making vaccines is a long expensive process with very little profit in it unless a disease is endemic. So it's in the drugs companies interests to "hold out" for very large slices of the tax take and alow the virus to well and truley become endemic (think about flu shots). I'm also sure BigPharma would think a vaccine should be between 100-200USD per dose if it's not likely to become endemic. Hiwever what they would rather do thoug is develop not a cure like a vaccine but drugs that boost the immune system as we see with HIV. So letting SARS-CoV-2 become endemic and having 30% of the Western population pay 200USD/month or more for five to twenty five years would be way more profit, thus a better option for them.

That's the joy of a "free market" view point, and realistically the only way to do what is required is legislatively, with a "war footing" being the way most likely to stop SARS-CoV-2 for those in "young middle age" and older.

gordoMarch 16, 2020 10:42 AM

Comcast, AT&T, and Verizon Should Suspend Data Caps Because of Coronavirus
ISPs have spent years imposing unnecessary and expensive broadband caps to make an extra buck. With a looming public health crisis, telecom experts say it’s time to suspend them.
By Karl Bode, Vice, Mar 12 2020

Initially, ISPs claimed that such limits were necessary to manage network capacity. Over the years, numerous industry admissions—as well as Comcast documents leaked on Reddit—have shown that’s simply not true, especially given that the cost of both bandwidth and network hardware has continued to drop in the subsequent years.


More recently, ISPs have backed off providing much in the way of justification for the unpopular restrictions whatsoever. Comcast’s website, for example, now simply tells users such limits are “based on a principle of fairness.”

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/bvg37m/comcast-atandt-verizon-should-suspend-data-usage-caps-overage-fees-coronavirus

---

https://www.thesixthaxis.com/2020/03/16/telecom-italia-internet-fortnite-traffic-surge/

OneWithYouMarch 16, 2020 11:23 AM

ALL:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-germany-usa-idUSKBN2120IV

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/15/trump-offers-large-sums-for-exclusive-access-to-coronavirus-vaccine

Here is a radical idea:

From each according to his ability; to each according to his need.

But with a public-private-open-source twist:

Why not set up a global (WHO?) fund. Each state gives according to its ability/its desire for PR, but no onerous requirements. The funds are distributed globally to public and private biotech efforts according to their ability (peer review judged?).

Whichever efforts develop safe and effective vaccines, however, must share their IP relevant to reproducing the vaccine. However they retain royalty/liscensing rights (at a rate even the poorest states can afford, else some sort of WHO subsidy out of the initial funds for these states).

The members of the human species (we all fall into the "according to their need" category) get a vaccine that immunizes the herd.

There are a lot of humans in the world. Efforts that get there first will make more than enough money. The states that contributed most get bragging rights for saving the world.

I am not a lawyer, CFO, policymaker, biotechnician, economist, etc. So what do I know. But out-of-the-box times require out-of-the-box thinking.

The thing is, we wont be able to stay in travel lockdown forever. The world is both small and numerous. A large enough proportion of humanity (aka "the herd" by those who need to pay heed) will need the vaccine(s) (likely yearly, like flu ones) or those who are used to being herders (but of the same species) will remain at risk from future strains.

CuriousMarch 16, 2020 11:54 AM

Covid-19 related (Intended for the Friday squid thread, apologies for the duplicate elsewhere.)

I thought it was interesting what New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said on a press conference today. He points out a lack of rules for the nation in this pandemic, and so points out that you end up with "state shopping" where you can drive somewhere else (presumalby to buy stuff), because of how rules are different from state to state made by local authorities, and he also points out such being the last things they want (presumably having people moving around that way).

SpaceLifeFormMarch 16, 2020 12:23 PM

@ Sed Contra, Clive, Anders, All

The Airlines are *NOT* going to install any UV hardware. It is much more cost effective to cook the plane on hot tarmac.

If they can afford the Ghosts Flights to retain control over takeoff/landing slots, they can afford to Ghost Flight planes to hot tarmacs and let them cook for a few days.

hxxps://centreforaviation.com/analysis/reports/covid-19-by-the-end-of-may-most-world-airlines-will-be-bankrupt-517512

SpaceLifeFormMarch 16, 2020 1:46 PM

@ MarkH, Sed Contra, Clive, Anders, All

Looks like Boris Johnson finally bought a vowel, and left the gambling boat on that famous river in Egypt. Trump, not yet.

Please, Just Stop Flying! Just stop. It is for everyones security. Do not take the risk.

hxxps://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-can-become-aerosol-doesnt-mean-doomed/

“I think the answer will be, aerosolization occurs rarely but not never,” said microbiologist and physician Stanley Perlman of the University of Iowa. “You have to distinguish between what’s possible and what’s actually happening.”

SpaceLifeFormMarch 16, 2020 3:32 PM

@ Clive, Anders, All

Greenland reports first case.

How about those planes?

OneWithYouMarch 16, 2020 3:36 PM

ALL
Et tu @name.withheld.for.obvious.reasons?

The first thing that must be pondered in pondering such as you have broached is: how often have we gotten back 4a freedoms lost to temporary social or legal normalizations of 4a violations?

Ans: Rarely, if ever, since we've entered the age of "forever wars". But perhaps we did in the past, after a war ended.

Yes, we and the world are at war with a nasty bug. But we should make sure to build in an exit strategy socially and legally from the start before we even ponder using such democracy wounding technologies and methods.

But even if only authorized under emergency clauses and properly sunsetted, I think the further precedent set would be too dangerous for the health of our democracy.

I personally don't believe martial law in the form of policing curfews or predicting individual to individual contact is all that useful in winning this "war". I'd rather see our military resources go into building temporary hospitals and helping distribute social-isolation supporting goods.

But don't stick any knitting needles anywhere. By broaching such subjects you provide us a service. We should as a democratic society be able to discuss such options and weigh the consequences openly.

SpaceLifeFormMarch 16, 2020 3:41 PM

@ Clive, Anders, All

Looks like enough experienced people had enough cluebats, and woke Trump up.

When Trump says July, August, you know he finally bought a vowel.

La AbejaMarch 16, 2020 3:49 PM

@SpaceLifeForm

hxxps://centreforaviation.com/analysis/reports/covid-19-by-the-end-of-may-most-world-airlines-will-be-bankrupt-517512

Airlines today are like the railroads of the 1800s -- always operating on the verge of 🏦ruptcy -- very aggressive in collecting alleged debts in order to pay off their own creditors.

They've never had much of any equity to speak of, with the airplanes themselves and other equipment on long-term off-balance-sheet leases.

If they had their books covered on the leases, the manufacturers would be responsible for maintenance, but no! The airlines themselves are 🐚ing out union wages + bennies to maintain the aircraft.

AndersMarch 16, 2020 3:55 PM

@Clive @SpaceLifeForm @ALL

Important change

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-update-young-people-hospital-luca-lorini-bergamo-a9402531.html

vas pupMarch 16, 2020 4:03 PM

'The Hacker and the State' - presentation of new book by the author - Georgetown University’s Ben Buchanan who talked about the normalizing of cyber warfare as a geopolitical tool.

https://www.c-span.org/video/?469729-1/the-hacker-state

My attention was caught by part related to election intervention into US Presidential election many years ago before Internet and its tools were developed.

Guy is very smart and this about hour presentation worth time watching it. Enjoy!

NikMarch 16, 2020 4:13 PM

@Clive :
Thank you for telling us about your medical heart issues. Having fainted myself several times (blood draw, and other things; I have a vasovagal syncope [0] due to needles and blood [1]) The sepsis episode also was frightening. My wife had a severe infection and it's hard to believe just how quickly one can fade away. 4 days and $14k in hospital bills got her back on track.

>retirment at all horrifies me, because in my head I still feel like I'm in my twenties

Being older and feeling my health wane, while my mind has never been this sharp is odd. Luckily my retirement 401k just went down the toilet, so I won't be retiring for another 1-2 decades.


This pandemic has been enlightening and there will be much learned from societal responses and behavioural patterns. Of course we are also seeing a massive uptick in cyberattacks; the malware sample rate/attacks has gone up 150% what we see at my work.
Seems that due to isolation, the script kiddies/ malware actors have nothing better to do. Plus companies are struggling to keep their SOCs staffed. I'm having trouble to get a lot of non covid news, as all is drowned out by media.

We are also seeing the effect s of unchecked greed with the cost of things going up 10x for things like thermometers [3]. As was advised earlier here, food is flying off the shelves. The effects of JIT & Supply chains along with countries cutting of links will be ungood.

The thoughts on pipelines were novel to me, but after thinking this through and reading the implications I now realize how fragile the systems are and that things mus keep going or forever stall .... like coke furnaces as previously mentioned.

[0] The first time I fainted I could not open my eye but heard, that was from a blood draw on a stool; I fell on the floor like a sack of potatos, heard the doctor yell at the nurse and I was convinced I had a horrible car accident and was on the side of the road dying. I have fainted several times, now I can tell the smell and sound of it and I lay down, raise my legs immediately. No cause ever detected.


[1] having had a class on cricothyrotomy was interesting[2], when watching a video I was struggling, but another student fainted, head tilt back and pale face. The room was full of TCCC combat medics, emts and other experts and thier response was great to see.

[2] Whenever I travel I have an advanced trauma kit on me. torniquet, pressure bandage and chest darts

[3] My thermometer did not work and had an odd error message Lo.A .... it was too cold where I kept it.

SpaceLifeFormMarch 16, 2020 4:48 PM

@ La Abeja, Clive, Anders, All

Note the disconnect. Note the dates.


hxxps://nypost.com/2020/03/04/us-airlines-wont-need-bailout-despite-coronavirus-woes/

hxxps://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/us-airlines-seek-more-than-50-billion-in-aid-as-coronavirus-roils-business.html

SpaceLifeFormMarch 16, 2020 5:00 PM

@ Nik

"I have fainted several times, now I can tell the smell and sound of it and I lay down, raise my legs immediately. No cause ever detected."

Smells and sounds like Presyncopal episode.

SpaceLifeFormMarch 16, 2020 5:25 PM

@ Chris, Clive, Anders, All

Maybe they were in Wuhan and flew back to Italy?

You know, those contraptions called Planes.

Just saying.

AndersMarch 16, 2020 6:06 PM

@SpaceLifeForm

time.com/5803757/coronavirus-airlines-bankrupt/

Forget UV, maybe just to burn them?
At least Greta Thunberg will be happy that's for sure!

SpaceLifeFormMarch 16, 2020 6:27 PM

@ Anders, Clive

"Forget UV, maybe just to burn them?"

Well, that is close to what I have said.

But not burn.

Global Plane Autoclave.

Cruise Ships, deep-six them.

I have zero reason to believe they can ever be declared safe.

Too much below waterline. Will never get hot below waterline.

MarkHMarch 16, 2020 7:07 PM

@Chris:

Italy has not only a lot of cases, but also a high fatality rate. Italy has an exceptional proportion of elderly, perhaps in part because of a "vampire" economic system which leaves young people too poor to start families.

La AbejaMarch 16, 2020 7:57 PM

@MarkH

a "vampire" economic system which leaves young people too poor to start families.

It's a willful and intentional form of generational warfare that pits children against their parents, aunts, and uncles for their very survival. This hell on Earth is exactly what I have experienced throughout my life in the United States, despite being born to relatively wealthy parents.

Circumcising and vaccinating doctors, tooth-pulling dentists, and rights-revoking psychiatrists have built a permanent and indestructible "establishment" of unspeakably evil malpractice without any possibility of redress for their victims: the economy remains crippled by a vicious dependency on the health insurance and healthcare which they offer to us on an involuntary basis only.

Realitors and landlords continue to vastly inflate the price of the "real estate" they list as they write horrifically and unnecessarily complex building codes, while expanding NICS and various NSA neighborhood watchlists to enforce innumerable occupational and sports prohibitions against targeted individuals, excluding us as "mental defectives" and other "undesirables."

They have greatly expanded the definition of "felony" and related categories to include even minor breaches of etiquette or other alleged deeds or words that would not even remotely have been considered "crimes" many years ago, let alone prosecuted in court.

Overly aggressive cops, judges, prosecutors, and public defenders have made a fatal error in their collective judgment in the United States: you cannot turn half the population of a free country into felons -- with or without cause -- and then live to see the day. That is an inviolable law of universal nature.

Clive RobinsonMarch 16, 2020 8:24 PM

@ SpaceLifeForm,

How about those planes?

First of they do not need to be baked in the sun or have UV-C emitters draged through them. All viruses have only a short period of viability when above the freezing point of water. SARS-CoV-1 analogs cease to be viable around nine days after being dropplet sprayed onto a stailess steel surface at 5C, and around twelve hours at room temprature. We don't have any real reason to believe that SARS-CoV-2 S/L are any more robust.

The real reason "ghost planes" are flown is take of and landing slots. If an airline uses it's slots less than 80% of the time it looses them and they then become "up for grabs" by other airlines. A side effect of this is that a lot lot less airline staff have been made jobless than if the rule did not exist. Needless to say airlines are petitioning for this rule to be suspended over COVID-19, if they do then 75-95% of frontline and maintainence staff will be laid off --most with prejudice-- immediately. Also the likes of Boeing would almost certainly lay off staff immediately as well and so on back through their suppliers like specialist engineering firms like Rolls Royce. This will also have effects in the likes of Imarsat, who legaly may have to deorbit some of their comms satellites and burn them up in the earths atmosphere... You would be supprised at just how far the airline business tenticles reach.

@ Chris, ALL,

Littlebit curious about why Italy was hit so bad with this virus thingy, and found out that there is a big chinese community in the area, so that could be the explanation.

Unlikely, as other countries have similar issues but not Chinese communities.

I've been asking a question about "anti-inflamitories" and several researchers and the French Health minister who is highly qualifed in related research have come out and said,

    Do not use NSAID's or Steroid Anti-inflamitories as they have a significant negative outcome on COVID-19 patients including a significant raising of the Case Fatality Rate (ie number of people who die).

The significant use of NSAID's in Italy (infered from sales) is thus a significant contributor in their near 10% CFR (lack of testing also contributes to the raised percentage). Likewise Iran because of US sanctions is known to be a significant user of steroid anti-inflammatories that would also cause a significantly raised CFR.

Whilst having a fever might make you feel like "death warmed over with a blow torch" it's a significant factor in the bodies fight against viral and bacterial infections. Bringing a fever down with anti-inflammatories just gives the SARS-CoV-2 virus more chance to "run riot" in your respiratory system causing significantly more fluid build up in the lungs causing significant worsening of gas exchange thus, clinical shock, sepsis organ failure, DIC and death.

Remember both Italy and Iran's CFR is more than ten times that of South Korea which has some of the best medical fascilities for a nation of it's size in the world.

But importantly in France there is a significant problem nobody is sure why it is happening. The rate at which the number of patients double was 6-8days in China. In France it appears to be 3days or less, which is frankly very scary as it appears the virus is "burning through France like wildfire". We can only wait on epidemiologists and researchers to give us answers as to why.

ChrisMarch 17, 2020 1:17 AM

Re: Do not use NSAID's or Steroid Anti-inflamitories
--
And also let the natural occuring fever do its job, intresting, and i think it maybe correct as well, i have to read more about it to have an opinion regarding the use of NSAIDS, personally i dont normaly use any medicines at all, not even aspirin. I remember getting a flu in Bangkok around the time of the SARS/2003 and not knowing what it was could have been dengue as well, but it hit hard and fast, i would say fever went upto 40 and after 12hours or so i could hardly text my friends that something aint right, it however stopped after about 48hours or so and i dont remember any more details, only thing i took was paracetamol that i am sure of though.

Yes well, that northern italian chinese population could still have been a starting point who knows, its easy to start spreading xenophobia these days, and that was not at all the idea but it had to start somewhere i guess a traveller from china would make sense.

So lets see what gets thrown at us next, global cerfew and a mandatory vaccination program doesnt sound farfetched.

Hope777March 17, 2020 2:03 AM

Something weird is happening with #Google Search. It's like the filters and censors have been completely removed. Right wing topics/conspiracy theories like the CIA whistleblower's name, pizzagate, and everything else are now searchable - complete with auto fill suggestions.

myliitMarch 17, 2020 6:07 AM

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/legal-issues/us-justice-dept-abandons-prosecution-of-russian-firm-indicted-in-mueller-election-interference-probe/2020/03/16/5f7c3fd6-64a9-11ea-912d-d98032ec8e25_story.html

“ Justice Dept. abandons prosecution of Russian firm [ Concord, putin’s chef Yevgeniy Prigozhin, etc.] indicted in Mueller election interference probe ...

Facebook’s former chief security officer, Alex Stamos, who oversaw the social media giant’s investigation of the disinformation campaign, said he was disappointed by the Justice Department’s decision.

“The unclassified evidence I have seen with my own eyes, and that Facebook provided to DOJ in 2017, demonstrates that the Internet Research Agency conducted an influence operation aimed at driving political divisions in the U.S.,” said Stamos, who now heads a research group that studies disinformation, the Stanford Internet Observatory. “If this activity is illegal, then I don’t understand why the prosecution would turn on a classification decision.””

Also

https://www.emptywheel.net/2020/03/16/yevgeniy-prigozhin-wins-his-asymmetric-legal-war-against-doj/

myliitMarch 17, 2020 9:15 AM

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf ( pdf 20 pages )

”Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID- 19 mortality and healthcare demand

Summary

The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Here we present the results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in recent weeks. In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of a number of public health measures – so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – aimed at reducing contact rates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presented here, we apply a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK (Great Britain specifically) and the US. We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on transmission.

Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.

We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, though it should be recognised that such closures may have negative impacts on health systems due to increased absenteeism. The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed. We show that intermittent social distancing – triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers rebound. Last, while experience in China and now South Korea show that suppression is possible in the short term, it remains to be seen whether it is possible long-term, and whether the social and economic costs of the interventions adopted thus far can be reduced.“

myliitMarch 17, 2020 10:37 AM

@Ismar

“ Russian-led troll network based in west Africa uncovered”

More on Facebook, Twitter and CNN journalists on the ground in Africa working with Facebook and Twitter taking down a Russian troll farm.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/12/world/russia-ghana-troll-farms-2020-ward/index.html

“Russian election meddling is back -- via Ghana and Nigeria -- and in your feeds

Accra, Ghana (CNN)The Russian trolls are back -- and once again trying to poison the political atmosphere in the United States ahead of this year's elections. But this time they are better disguised and more targeted, harder to identify and track. And they have found an unlikely home, far from Russia itself.

In 2016, much of the trolling aimed at the US election operated from an office block in St. Petersburg, Russia. A months-long CNN investigation has discovered that, in this election cycle, at least part of the campaign has been outsourced -- to trolls in the west African nations of Ghana and Nigeria.
They have focused almost exclusively on racial issues in the US, promoting black empowerment and often displaying anger towards white Americans. The goal, according to experts who follow Russian disinformation campaigns, is to inflame divisions among Americans and provoke social unrest.
The language and images used in the posts -- on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram -- are sometimes graphic. ...

CNN worked with two Clemson University professors -- Darren Linvill and Patrick Warren -- in tracking the Ghanaian operation. Linvill said the campaign was straight out of the Russian playbook, trying to mask its efforts among groups in the US....

Inside the troll farm
The operation's headquarters were in a walled compound in a quiet residential district near the Ghanaian capital, Accra. It had been rented by a small nonprofit group that called itself Eliminating Barriers for the Liberation of Africa (EBLA).

Sixteen Ghanaians, mostly in their 20s, worked at the compound; some lived rent-free in a nearby apartment. They were issued mobile phones, not laptops, and worked around a table. The EBLA trolls communicated as a group through the encrypted Telegram app, which is rarely used in Ghana.

One of the trolls agreed to talk to CNN, so long as her identity was disguised. She said she had no idea she would be working as a Russian troll...

The employee said they were told that the best time to tweet and post was late afternoon and at night in Ghana, times when a US audience would have been active. They were given US articles to read.

Facebook said that although the people behind the campaign had attempted to conceal their purpose and coordination, its investigation had found links to both EBLA and "individuals associated with past activity by the Russian Internet Research Agency."...”

Clive RobinsonMarch 17, 2020 11:09 AM

@ myliit,

Facebook’s former chief security officer, Alex Stamos, who oversaw the social media giant’s investigation of the disinformation campaign, said he was disappointed by the Justice Department’s decision.

Well he's I guess he's "had a conversion/crissis of faith", become delusional or he's being "economical with the truth".

Colour me not at all surprised, this has happened nor will I be when the rest of it flys out of the court room window.

The reason, these DoJ cases against Russia and China are just vacuous publicity stunts started for political reasons, nothing more nothing less.

I don't remember your handle on this blog from back when the US Executive sanctioned the start of this idiocy but at the time I said it was just a publicity stunt, and so it's proving to be, and almost certainly will continue to do so.

Contrary to what the US Executive might want and the DoJ psychos might think, US legislation is juresdictional not international. Thus a US court has absolutly no legal standing against the people or companies in Russia or China. Once you realise this you can sit back with a bowl of popcorn and enjoy the entertainment...

Because those companies and people can employ US persons to go and tell the US Court and thus the DoJ and the gormers in the Executive to cease and desist with their "Faux news" political propaganda, or get a truckload or two of manure dumped on their doorstep. Which is what the Russians have started to do. But also for some inane reason in the process the Executive is clearly not thinking or apparently capable of thinking one or two steps ahead. So appart from the toe curling embarrassment factor the Russian Companies and people are making the US not just bleed but haemorrhage information as well, and will continue to do so untill the DoJ gives up or the Executive send in a drone strike and percipitate WWIII.

The fact that the Court actually knows this so can see where this is going to end legaly, is why the motion was granted befor the echos of the request had stopped. The court also knows where the rest of this is going and that's in the trash can or a smoking hole that might glow in the dark.

I guess the Executive thought that their publicity stunt for political propaganda would not get challenged --possibly because China just laughed behind the hand and otherwise ignored it-- the Russian's however challenged as I thought they would, and are thus making a mockery out of the process in what is effectively a "bear baiting pit of the US executives own making". I guess the Executive also thought they could push it into the long grass if it became a problem, but they've not even been able to do that, and worse it's starting to smell bad before right before election time, Opps...

At the end of the day these companies and people are in Russian and as their actions were carried out on Russian soil not US soil, and in Russian not US juresdiction where what they were doing is legal and possibly even condoned by the authorities, extradition is not going to happen any time soon if ever.

But it goes a little deeper, and the real problem behind it all is the fight for the protections of "Common Carrier Status" (CCS).

Most public use Telco companies have CCS by default, which in effect absolves them of responsability legaly for the content of the traffic they carry. It goes back to the quaint notion they were not alowed to "peek/evesdrop" so could not know what the contents of a sealed envelop was, thus could not have liability...

But that quaint notion does not fit in with modern electronic communication of a few years back, were traffic was the equivalent of written on a post card, because Governments faught tooth and nail to stop encryption any way they could for years. They no doubt would have fought longer if they had realised "HTTPS For All at All Times" would quickly become a reality.

So the budding Internet companies did not want encryption either because that would upset their business models, but no mater what they did they did not want to be recognised as the "publishers" the likes of Facebook realy were, due to all that established case law.

Which to cut a long story short is why the only part of the Communications Decency Act which remains is §230, which broadly gives the same CCS protection to large Internet Corps rather than treat them as "Publishers" which they realy should be (Facebook for instance is a "subscription newsletter publisher" in any way you care to look at it).

Thus the problem. What the Russian Companies and people were doing was legal in their jurisdiction. The telecos who carried the traffic out of Russia had legal immunity via CCS, so that was legal. Which leavez Facebook and Co whi thought they had legal immunity via CDA §230, which technically they do.

So nobody has done anything illegal or not done something they were legaly or regulatory required to do... Fine if you are either not on the receiving end, or have no power to do anything about it. Which is why we've started to see the likes of civil harrasment and cyber stalking type legislation because it real is not fine. The problem is such legislation is jurisdictional and a legitimate "harm" to an individual or organisation would have to be shown for extradition to have any hope of succeeding, not some abuse of "free speach".

Now because the US Gov and executive has had a taste of what the US IC has been doing to other Nation States for seventy years their nose has been put out of joint, and publically so because they made such a fuss about nothing... Because realistically they can not show any substantive harm to an individual or organisation. The US Representatives in their various forms thought "Exceptionalism" protected them from being hoist by their own petard... But as per normal they were to busy listening to lobyists rather than actually thinking and reflecting on History.

But the greed of those who sent in lobyists and the greed of those who listened to the lobyists without thought made it not just possible but effectively impossible to stop. Yes pause and have a think about that, the US representatives realy did take target practice at their feet, and hit the mark, and now they are trying to blaim everyone else.

It's not as though this had not happened before... Nusance phone calls, scarlet letters, poisoned pen letters, all happened because of CCS and could not be stopped because with the technology of the time it was impossible to have a functioning and affordable post and telephone service if the technology was changed to prevent it. Worse unless CCS or equivalent was seen to be in effect people would not trust those nascent post and phone services, some of which (AT&T) turned into massive monsters that had to be cut down to size.

Thus we see the silly games of Congressional hearings, a bunch of old fart representatives with their noses out of joint trying to look tough... All the while knowing if they did get tough those nice back handers from the lobyists would stop at the very least, and as many of them are "perverts" by comparison to the image of saintlyness they try to portray in public, they know that the very many skeletons they have in cupboards might just "accidently" come out to play in the public arena.

Which might also account for the charlatanism of those behind the EARN-IT Act...

But theres more to it still that the representatives have to consider the US has "bet the farm" on electronic commerce, so even tiny regulatory changes have massive effects on the "digital economy" on which the US is perhapse the nation most dependent on it in very very many ways (some of which CORVID-19 is going to show up),

But not every one needs to be told this, they've already been hit. As some have found out with the current head of the FCC feathering his nest by doing favours to Telco's who have turned themselves into ISP's, by removing net neutrality he has caused US citizens to have a significantly worse Internet service, and pay upto 50% more for it... That's just the first of oh so many cracks to come...

gordoMarch 17, 2020 12:12 PM

US Election 2020
A Russian troll farm may not have been very good at its job
Nov 25, 2019

A major Russian disinformation effort may not have been very effective, according to a new study that is one of the first to investigate whether these campaigns actually changed people’s minds. The study, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, is limited—and it’s definitely not saying that the US shouldn’t be worried about foreign election interference—but is still an important reminder of how little we know about the widespread results of disinformation.

https://www.technologyreview.com/f/614756/russia-disinformation-twitter-internet-research-agency-social-media-politics/

---

See also:

https://original.antiwar.com/porter/2018/11/04/33-trillion-reasons-why-the-new-york-times-gets-it-wrong-on-russia-gate/

AndersMarch 17, 2020 1:51 PM

@Clive @SpaceLifeForm @ALL

Made some calculation over the official figures published.

Too bad, world CFR is slowly but steadily raising. Lately it
passed the 4% margin.

Italian CFR is almost 8% now. Little bit more and it's 10%
Scary, very scary to me.

SpaceLifeFormMarch 17, 2020 2:21 PM

@ Clive, Anders, All

Deep dive. Long technical read.

ACE2. Bats.

The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2

hxxps://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus.

Clive RobinsonMarch 17, 2020 2:33 PM

@ Anders,

Scary, very scary to me.

And you're not doing it quite right either...

Your figures are in effect for "the known population" which may or may not be representative of the "general population"

Which could be looked at in one of two way.

The First is South Korea that went all in testing the population therefore they numbers of confirmed cases are more representative of the "general population", thus their much lower CFR is because they also caught the 80% of infected people who have mild or none serious or even non symptomatic cases.

The second case is like the UK or US where for political reasons only those that had obviously got COVID-19 by clinical observation got tested and then only some of the patients. Thus the use of the RT-PCR kits was efectively wasted as it told nobody anything they did not already know. This obviously keeps the number of cases low thus Case Fatality Rate was in effect artificially increased.

But there is another issue if you draw your records from the general population then it hides the break down of deaths by age group.

If you live in the West and are in the 45-55year old group your normal probability of dying is a little over 0.6% at 45 and 1.3% at 55. Which actually does not worry most people. However when you consider most deaths happen in that age rang or older ie the 1/5 of elderly patients or these with comorbidities all of a sudden the rates jump up to ~4.6% at 45 and nearer 12% at 55 which does worry people.

There are two reasons for this,

1, COVID-19 pathology gets worse with age.

2, The number of people actually alive in any age group goes down with increasing age.

So as usuall with stats you have to dig abit for valid data.

Clive RobinsonMarch 17, 2020 2:46 PM

@ SpaceLifeForm,

"Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus."

I think this has been clearly known for around four weeks.

I know this upsets a few people because they look at it the wrong way around...

That is they reason along the lines of,

    This is a near perfect bio-weapon, such perfection is unlikely by chance, therefore it has to be man made.

Which is the same problem we have with a lot of forensics, that is they are arguing back from "perceived effect" to their choice of very many causes.

Part of the problem is evelotion is actually not random it favours certain mutations which over a few generations looks like it is being "guided by an unseen hand".

name.withheld.for.obvious.reasonsMarch 17, 2020 2:53 PM

@ OneWithYou

But even if only authorized under emergency clauses and properly sunsetted, I think the further precedent set would be too dangerous for the health of our democracy

As you are aware, this still occurs if not more pronounced and outrageous--government illegality knows no bounds.

We have the IAA passed in Dec of 2014 and signed in Jan 2015 by the President that includes section 309 (HR 4681). If anyone thought that the FISA Amendment Act of 2008 was bad, be surprised.

AndersMarch 17, 2020 3:35 PM

@Clive

"And you're not doing it quite right either..."

Yes, i'm using known reported cases, real infection numbers are higher
and therefore real CFR lower. But even with known reported cases CFR
% is slowly but steadily going up. For that someone must gradually
report lower and lower cases, i don't this is the case.

See my Italy second wave link - on the second wave younger people
are dying so gradually increasing CFR is plausible.

AndersMarch 17, 2020 3:42 PM

@Clive

Regarding perfect bioweapon - this would be COVID infected Syrian refugees
bursting towards EU.

Like any virus, COVID can be cultivated. Then you infect massive amount of
refugees in the camp and then you help them cross the EU border somewhere...

SpaceLifeFormMarch 17, 2020 3:46 PM

@ Clive, All

"I think this has been clearly known for around four weeks."

I know it is a Known Known all year.

I just put it out so others can learn.

vas pupMarch 17, 2020 4:13 PM

Coronavirus: Israel enables emergency spy powers

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-51930681

"The Israeli government has approved emergency measures for its security agencies to track the mobile-phone data of people with suspected coronavirus.

The new powers will be used to enforce quarantine and warn those who may have come into contact with infected people.

The temporary laws were passed during an overnight sitting of the cabinet, bypassing parliamentary approval.

The Association for Civil Rights in Israel called the move "a dangerous precedent and a slippery slope".

Such powers are usually reserved for counter-terrorism operations.

Details of how the "cyber-monitoring" will work were not disclosed but it is understood the location data collected through telecommunication companies by Shin Bet, the domestic security agency, will be shared with health officials."

vas pupMarch 17, 2020 4:25 PM

@Hope777 - may be this is answer for your question

Coronavirus: Social giants police web with AI as staff sent home
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-51926564

"Major websites are turning to automatic systems to moderate content as they tell their staff to work from home.

YouTube, Twitter and Facebook are all relying on artificial intelligence and automated tools to find problematic material on their platforms.

The tech giants admit this may lead to some mistakes - but say they still need to remove harmful content.

The coronavirus scare has led to a surge of medical misinformation across the web.

Google, which owns YouTube, said appeals about content wrongfully removed could take longer under the new measures.

Twitter, meanwhile, promised that no accounts suspended by automated software would be permanently banned without a human review."

What is the next step? AI substitute trial by jury? I guess that is inevitable but very distant future.
AI will take into consideration objective facts/evidence, elements of the crime, evaluate veracity of any testimony by evaluation of the whole person's history of telling the truth, will disregard any factors irrelevant like demographics of perpetrator and victim(s) you name it except pure hate crimes.

vas pupMarch 17, 2020 4:32 PM

Berlin to build 1,000-bed coronavirus hospital:
https://www.dw.com/en/berlin-to-build-1000-bed-coronavirus-hospital/a-52811671

"The German capital has approved the plans ahead of an expected spike in COVID-19 infections. The armed forces are to be drafted in to help create the facility, which will treat many of the most serious cases.

The Berlin government said on Tuesday it would create a new hospital to cope with a likely huge increase in coronavirus cases.

The facility, which will house up to 1,000 patients, will be set up in the Berlin Messe trade fair exhibition grounds in the Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf district of the German capital.

The hospital will be built with the help of the German armed forces, the Bundeswehr.

No further details on the exact location or the deadline for completion were given.

The project was approved by the Senate, the executive body for the city and state of Berlin, who said the facility should only be used if other medical facilities are overrun."

Russia is doing the same near Moscow - both following good example from China, but what about us, I mean US? Could we do the same for God sake having POTUS with whole life experience in construction and resources - Army Corp of Engineers?

SpaceLifeFormMarch 17, 2020 4:44 PM

@ Clive, Anders, All

Sometimes, an email will spur action.

Charter is actually in Alpha testing right now, on the WFH front.

Beta Testing starts tomorrow.

And then, more employees scream.


hxxps://techcrunch.com/2020/03/16/charter-coronavirus-work-home/

SpaceLifeFormMarch 17, 2020 5:39 PM

@ Clive, Anders, All

It can't hurt the patient.


hxxps://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy/italy-rushes-to-promote-new-doctors-to-relieve-coronavirus-crisis-idUSKBN214245

Italy will rush 10,000 student doctors into service, scrapping their final exams

SpaceLifeFormMarch 17, 2020 6:20 PM

@ Clive, Anders, All

West Virginia reports first case, closing the book.

Every State in US now has at least one case.

Sed ContraMarch 17, 2020 6:24 PM

Just a reminder, the Johns Hopkin corona virus site has a lot of well organized information in addition to the virus tracker. Articles on tests soon ready to go and serums that they expect would work against the virus, citing research and clinical experience going back tontje 1930s.

And in other news don’t overlook this curious coincidence: Saint Corona 2nd century Roman martyr, patroness against plagues and epidemics.

Clive RobinsonMarch 18, 2020 12:09 AM

@ Anders, ALL,

But even with known reported cases CFR % is slowly but steadily going up.

Yes it is, and as you've mentioned in Italy we are now seeing young people other than the medical proffession appearing in the known cases.

I've been trying to think of a way this might be accounted for, and so far I've only come up with two with the same underlying root cause, which is viral overload, one being in the environment, the other caused by medications

That is if you are virtually swiming in virus loaded air, the amount you breath in is so great your bodies defence systems get overloaded. Or you are "self prescribing" on "over the counter" medicines such as "antipyretics" like NSAIDs.

OK the simplified science is,

1, Normally you get a small amount of virus into your system and it only infects a very very very tiny fraction of your cells.

2, The virus hijacks the cells protein synthesis process and rapidly starts to replicate, and the cells start to release not just the virus but other chemical indicators.

3, Some white blood cells recognise the virus as "foreign" and start a chain of events that includes the generation of cytokines that effect the hypothalamus.

4, Importantly the hypothalmus raises the body temprature, which has two effects,

4A, Whilst the adult body can tolerate a rise of one or two degrees C the virus can not and becomes much less viable way faster and also very much more susceptable to the bodies defence systems.

4B, As the body temprature rises other deffence responses in the body become much more efficient.

5, One of the temprature sensitive processes that happens is the release of "interferon" around an infected cell, this has two effects,

5A, The interferon causes adjacent cells to the infected cell to shut down various processes one of which is the protien production mechanism. Thus the adjacent cells become a fire wall to the virus in effect trapping it in place.

5B, The chemicals released cause some of the mobile white cells to move through the body towards the infected cell that "trap and digest" the released virus. Importantly this process works better at higher body tempratures.

From this it can be seen that taking antipyretics like NSAIDs that lower the body temprature actually makes virus replication easier because of 4A favouring the viris and 5B disfavouring the bodies defence mechanisms.

It's why I've been asking about the use of "anti-imflamatory" or "antipyretic" drugs like NSAIDs and Steroids. Put simply whilst taking them might make you feel better, they are mostly "helping the virus at your expense" including getting you into clinical shock, sepsis, organ failure, DIC and death.

But now consider that,

6A, The proceding series of events take time.

6B, The number of white blood cells that digest virii and bacteria are normally kept low for good reason.

Thus there is a "ramp up" in your bodies defence systems against time.

Now ask yourself the question of what happens when you are in an environment rich in virus in the air?

It can be seen that it's possible for the bodies defence systems to not be able to keep up and in effect the replication rate rises K of a chain reaction above one, which means it's become self sustaining or out of control thus "runaway". Either way you die because eventually too many of your cells cease to function the way they should. The only real difference is the speed it happens at.

This is one of the dangers of "issolation" in high density human occupation areas such as "institutions" like hospitals and prisons, and why schools, colleges, universities and if employers are sensible work places as well get shut down[1]. By having "in place issolation" you not only further compress people together you also build a tightly closed "shut in" environment where infection spreads rapidly and uncontrollably even with medical support. In essence you create an ideal situations for "environmental overload" where the unwell who's immune systems are strugling or failing, create a very virus rich probably localy aerosolized environment, where the well even with strong immune systems who are "shut in" with them get overwhelmed and succumb not just to the virus but die themselves.

This is not new thinking by the way, Victorian physician Dr John Snow by fairly rigourous even by todays standards of epidemiology identified water as the source of cholera outbreaks in prisons and confirmed it by changing the supply of waters to the prisons and seeing the cases of cholera change. Whilst this was in opposition to the popular "miasma theory" his careful work ended up convincing people before "germs" had been put on the science map by Louis Pasteur. So why a century and a half later, we still alow such dangerous to public health practices to put in place "still puzzles me" to put it politely.

So for those going into self issolation in the near future, remember that you need to ensure,

1, By well thought out and good ventilation you do not create environmental overload.

2, You don't compromise your immune system with NSAIDs or Micro nutrient deficiency etc.

[1] If you look back to when Business Process Reengineering (BPR) was first being pushed, one of it's consequences was the idea of "Hot desking". What few realise is this was named after a process of "hot bedding" that was used on navy vessels especially submarines over a century ago. One of the downsides of "hot bedding" quickly became apparent which was infections and parasites spread very rapidly through the "community" and even "Cleanliness next to Godliness" was insufficient to stop it. This was pointed out by several people when "Hot Desking" was touted as a "significant reducer of business costs"... Give you one guess as to who the C-Suite types listened to... Put simply "Hot Desking" is a way to kill your employees, and there is no excuse for not knowing this. History has shown us this repeatedly since Dr John Snow took the pump handle off the water pump at the intersection of Broad Street and Cambridge Street in Soho, Westminster London in 1854 and stoped the Golden Square cholera outbreak, which had killed over six hundred people. It was just one of many outbreaks that occurred during the worldwide 1846–1860 cholera pandemic. Whilst Dr Snow's work was initially ignored for ostensibly "old boy network" and financial reasons of big water companies and slum landlords, it eventually gave rise to the significant works of Joseph Bazalgette and the Victorian sewer system in London and the "cathedrals to engineering" that the steam-pump houses became. Oh and a system that has alowed even greater housing and work density in modern London (something that a previous Mayor of London tried to limit, but has since been lobbied out by building Corps etc...).

Clive RobinsonMarch 18, 2020 1:11 AM

@ Anders, ALL

Regarding perfect bioweapon - this would be COVID infected Syrian refugees bursting towards EU.

Yes, it's something that has been on my mind even befor COVID-19.

Such a humanitarian disaster as the Middle East has become is not just a National Security issue for the nations in conflict but those around them in ever growing circles, stopped only by "insurmountable boarders" be they natural or created by man.

Basically this is why Turkey has upto 4million Syrian Refugees in camps, it does not want and the refugees want to take up "Mummy Merkel's" offer of a good life in Europe (and is one of the causes of Brexit).

It's known that refugee camps like prisons are an almost perfect breeding place for all kinds of communicable diseases. It's a virtual certainty that SARS-CoV-2 will get into those refugee camps, and that at the very least will create panic and hysteria.

Turkey's healthcare system although modern is not realy sufficient at the best of times and various political events have not made that any better. Throw 4 million refugees into the mix and it's a disaster about to happen.

The only real question is "where it will happen?" the EU commission has it's head up it's ass over "free movment" they are trying to close the EU external western boarders so they can keep the schengen zone open. Whilst ignoring what is happening in the south around the Mediterranean...

The Greeks have repeatedly had their requests for assistance to maintain the Greek-Turkey boarder strengthened, turned down by the EU Council of Ministers, who basically want to begger Greece to further "asset strip it". Realistically there are not many ways this idiocy can end, and one of them is with machine guns and mass graves...

It's been reported that Turkish Troops are already shooting at Greek soldiers on boarder patrol. I've no idea if it is true or not but history shows this sort of thing happening quite frequently in many parts of the world.

So yes I can see Syrian Refugees getting infected with SARS-CoV-2, it's almost a certainty.

Yes I can also see panic starting in the Turkish refugee camps.

As for the next couple of steps to infected refugees ending up in Greece or other parts of Europe yes I can see that happening as well. The question is augmented to "How many and where?".

As we now know it would only take a handfull or two of infectious people traveling to have significant infective ability. If you think back to the British man who contracted it in Singapore and spread it in France and Britain he infected atleast eleven people directly. With the "doubling rate" across Europe currently 3-6days in part due to "free movment" it's not difficult to see just how dangerous this can be.

Especially as both the US and Russia are playing the old "proxie war" game in the Middle East creating ever more homeless people thus insanitary conditions with little or no healthcare, people quickly become refugees as the only way to survive thus further fueling the problem.

It may well become the most over-riding security issue of this generation, making any form of ICTsec or Surveillance pale into insignificance. As the Ancient Chinese curse has it,

    May you live in interesting times.

This time I don't see us having any choice but to...

MarkHMarch 18, 2020 2:30 AM

@Clive, who wrote about

arguing back from "perceived effect" to [one's] choice of very many causes

Thank you for this observation. Such backward reasoning is a prevalent fallacy, and the engine powering many conspiracy theories.

Scientists -- and in our own way, humble engineers -- have had to learn "the hard way" that whoever would discover truth, must learn highly disciplined reasoning.

Otherwise, one is doomed to ensnarement in a cul de sac of confirmation bias.
____________

PS Bioweapons capable of attacking great masses of people are, in general, rubbish: what makes them most potent also renders them practically uncontrollable.

SARS-Cov-2 is a perfect example. Its spread is global, hitting alike supposed friend and foe, victim and attacker. Virtually every organization now existing will suffer damage from it.

One reason people love conspiracy theories, is that the notion that some people are in control -- even if those people are terribly malevolent -- is more psychologically bearable, than the reality that some confluence of error, nature, ignorance, mental illness, or unintended consequences are the implacable (and often impersonal) drivers of such great loss and suffering.

CuriousMarch 18, 2020 4:42 AM

Covid-19 related, found on reddit.

With the risk of the following being either false or irrelevant, apparently someone has been looking at the relationship between blood types and who fared the best/worst in a sense, re. Wuhan infected residents:

("Relationship between the ABO Blood Group and the COVID-19 Susceptibility")
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.20031096v1

It is pointed out in the paper that:
"This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice."

"The study was conducted by comparing the blood group distribution in 2,173 patients
with COVID-19 confirmed by SARS-CoV-2 test from three hospitals in Wuhan and
Shenzhen, China with that in normal people from the corresponding regions. Data
were analyzed using one-way ANOVA and 2-tailed χ2 and a meta-analysis was performed by random effects models."

myliitMarch 18, 2020 7:04 AM

@Gordo, Curious, Clive Robinson, and misc. popcorn eaters

Gordo, thanks for the Bloomberg link regarding NSO— “ Israeli Spyware Firm Wants to Track Data to Stop Coronavirus Spreading” and, Curious, for the Vice link, and Clive for the discussion about low budget, but perhaps effective, Russian trolling efforts and the USA’s lawfare response to it.

It seems that many of the coronavirus-surveillance players are defense/intelligence/leo vendors or contractors. Once the infrastructure is in place there is probably little to stop it from being repurposed [1].

https://www.wsj.com/articles/to-track-virus-governments-weigh-surveillance-tools-that-push-privacy-limits-11584479841

“To Track Virus, Governments Weigh Surveillance Tools That Push Privacy Limits

Geolocation and facial-recognition systems can locate vectors of infections, but they also gather highly personal data

As the country scrambles to control the rapidly spreading coronavirus, government agencies are putting in place or considering a range of tracking and surveillance technologies that test the limits of personal privacy.

The technologies include everything from geolocation tracking that can monitor the locations of people through their phones to facial-recognition systems that can analyze photos to determine who might have come into contact with individuals who later tested positive for the virus, according to people familiar...“

[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-loyalists-take-command-of-the-intelligence-community/2020/03/17/72518e3e-6884-11ea-9923-57073adce27c_story.html

“ At a moment when Americans have new appreciation for the government professionals who protect against global threats, the Trump administration is weighing cuts in funding and staff for the National Counterterrorism Center, created after Sept. 11, 2001, to shield the homeland from attack. ...

This “review” of intelligence-coordinating activities has created concern among intelligence professionals that a campaign is beginning against what President Trump and his loyalists view as a “deep state” in the national security community. Foreign intelligence partners share this worry about a Trump-led campaign to control intelligence.

Fear of a purge increased last July, when Daniel Coats was pushed out as director of national intelligence. His widely respected deputy, Sue Gordon, resigned in August after she wasn’t tapped to replace Coats. Then came the departures of Maguire and his chief deputy, Andrew Hallman, last month. All four had angered the White House, in part because they supported the intelligence community’s findings that Russia has been meddling in U.S. politics to benefit Trump. ...”

CuriousMarch 18, 2020 8:31 AM

US FOIA related:
("The FBI Has Limited Public Records Requests During The Coronavirus Pandemic")
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/jasonleopold/fbi-limitng-foia-during-coronavirus-covid19

"Citing the global outbreak of coronavirus, the FBI has placed a significant limit on how Americans can learn about the workings of their government: Instead of simply using email, people who seek public records, such as documents on high profile federal investigations or files on public figures, must now put their requests on paper and send them via snail mail."

So it seems FBI is having issues somehow during the COVID-19 pandemic, but I guess it was maybe weird that they don't accept emails for soliciting FOIA information, but accepting snail mail instead.

Clive RobinsonMarch 18, 2020 9:57 AM

@ curious,

I guess it was maybe weird that they [the FBI] don't accept emails for soliciting FOIA information, but accepting snail mail instead.

The FBI are clearly exploiting COVID-19 to get out of their statutory duties. Andvas normal they have gone about it in both the most idiotic and indefensable ways possible.

Which means that they are so confident that they will not get pulled up on it they don't even care how blatantly obvious they are being about it...

CuriousMarch 18, 2020 11:31 AM

COVID-19 related, supply situation in USA.

I think I just heard from the live press conference from the White House, that there is to now be released 5 million masks from a "stategic reserve" to the US government.

I found some randomly chosen link for this:
https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/coronavirus/article241279361.html (not paywalled)

"“The first 1 million masks will be made available immediately,” said Esper, who spoke to reporters at the Pentagon. The equipment will be released to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services for distribution, he said."

myliitMarch 18, 2020 12:55 PM

“ As homebound Americans are increasingly going online to keep in touch with friends and family, some internet providers, including AT&T and Comcast, have lifted data caps, without significant interruptions to service from the increased bandwidth. The crisis has renewed calls for the FCC to regulate the internet as a utility, and for a reversal of the Trump administration’s repeal of net neutrality protections.

Meanwhile, Facebook began censoring coronavirus news articles from a number of outlets Tuesday, including The Atlantic, BuzzFeed, Politico and Democracy Now! A Facebook executive blamed a bug on an anti-spam artificial intelligence system.”

https://www.democracynow.org/2020/3/18/headlines/internet_providers_drop_data_caps_as_calls_for_net_neutrality_grow

Simply shill Facebook for the Republican party?

The Atlantic, BuzzFeed, Politico and Democracy Now!, must have something going for them; Facebook censored them?

https://www.theatlantic.com/

https://www.buzzfeed.com/

https://www.politico.com/ javascript required

https://www.democracynow.org/

https://www.nybooks.com/ New York Review of Books; see “For the Lulz”, amongst others

https://www.newyorker.com/

https://www.aclu.org/

https://www.eff.org/ or https://www.eff.org/pages/speaking-freely-ada-palmer

“ I’ve been thinking about censorship for a long time, but much of what Ada [Palmer] said during our conversation still managed to surprise me. We talked about censorship during the Inquisition, and how that parallels to today’s online censorship challenges. We also discussed what Ada, as an historian, sees as the harmful long-term effects of censorship, some of which might surprise even the most dedicated free expression activist. It was an honor and a pleasure to get to interview Ada for this wide-ranging edition of Speaking ...

W e had a great discussion in class at one point about the Galileo trial—you’re the Inquisition, here’s this guy Galileo, you think his ideas are dangerous. You then have a giant, showy trial that makes him a hundred times more famous than he was before, so that everyone is talking about him and he remains a major figure in the history of culture for hundreds of years afterward...what are you doing? It would be much more sensible to have him quietly murdered, which is not hard in 1600. It would be more sensible to smear him, say nothing, accuse him of sodomy, any normal sort of destroy-your-enemy tactic of 1600 makes more sense, if what you want to do is silence Galileo.

And a student in the class was asking: “How do we judge when censorship succeeds?” The answer is we have to figure out what the goal of the censorship was, because if the goal of the Galileo trial was to silence Galileo, it was one of the worst failures of anything anyone has ever tried to do in the history of the planet. But if you think of it differently, the goal of the Galileo trial is that it gets Descartes to withdraw his treatise that was about to be published, and then revising it to be way more orthodox and way more Catholic, and then publish that, which continues to be the dominant force in the French intellectual world for a century, and results in a much more orthodox and much more Catholic France than it would have if Descartes had published the uncensored original version—that’s the victory of the Galileo trial...”

SpaceLifeFormMarch 18, 2020 1:43 PM

@ Clive, Anders, All

"despite instructions from federal officials to remain silent"

hxxps://www.justsecurity.org/69251/moral-courage-in-the-coronavirus-what-medical-providers-and-institutions-should-do69251/

In Seattle, epidemiologist Dr. Helen Chu demonstrated great moral courage by reporting critical data to health officials despite instructions from federal officials to remain silent. As Director of the Seattle Flu Study, she wanted to test samples from her study participants for COVID-19 to determine whether the virus had already arrived in Washington state. When she made the request to do so, she was denied authorization. Feeling an ethical obligation to help in a way only she could, she proceeded without approval on February 25. Her team quickly identified a teenager with a positive test who had no travel or contact history, demonstrating community spread. They reported this information to the local public health service, just before the teen returned to his crowded school. Even then, the federal government reportedly served her with a cease and desist order. Dr. Eric Ding from the Harvard Chan School of Public Health has called her “an American hero” for her courage.

AndersMarch 18, 2020 2:04 PM

@Clive @SpaceLifeForm @ALL

After a long, long silence and some low numbers,
Turkey official infection count has jumped
to 98 with one death. For sure unofficial numbers
are way higher and considering its close proximity
to Europe, Syrian refugee camps/path etc, there is
next disaster slowly cooking up...

SpaceLifeFormMarch 18, 2020 2:13 PM

@ Clive, Anders, MarkH, Myliit, All

Just shutdown plane travel. Just Do it!

@ Clive, please

#DEFINE SHORT_PERIOD_OF_VIABILITY

"First of they do not need to be baked in the sun or have UV-C emitters draged through them. All viruses have only a short period of viability when above the freezing point of water."

hxxps://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-study-idUSKBN2143QP

"On plastic and stainless steel, viable virus could be detected after three days."

So, what about that steel and plastic in plane cabins?

Those planes are *NOT* sitting idle for 3 days.

The planes are the worst vector possible.

ChrisMarch 18, 2020 2:24 PM

Ok working from home second week now, only thing is that its littlebit boring
so one has to put a schedule and try to stick with it, and do some morning walkabouts etc.
boredom is a real killer i would say.

Also remembered i have an ionisator so i put it on as well, its one of the more expensive ones supposedly not spewing out too much ozon. Anyhows sofar so good, at least its cheaper than commuting every day, hopefully i can manage to do it for awhile...

If someone else wants to try work from homw i think now is the time to try it out

gordoMarch 18, 2020 2:31 PM

@ myliit,

Given your your most recent footnote above: Are you suggesting that the IC has stopped going after the President?

ChrisMarch 18, 2020 2:39 PM

Ok i forgot that i should ask of opinions of the effectiveness of these ionisators
i dont know much but found this hxxps://www.nature.com/articles/srep11431

What i understand the ozone that some cheapos produce as a biproduct initselfe is not desirable but i am more intrested of the ionisator effect perse

SpaceLifeFormMarch 18, 2020 4:19 PM

@ Chris, Anders

We all need remote jobs, WFH.

But that is totally impossible.

It's just not possible that even if you lockdown as much as possible, there has to be people working stores, gas stations, pharmacies, and banks. And Factories, Farms, Trucking, Warehousing.

Airlines are screwed. Stop plane travel.

Seen some BS today that IC folk are WFH.

That is false.

Someone asked me today about banks.

By LAW, a bank in US can only be closed for 2 days in a row.

Typically, that would occur on a Sunday followed by a Monday Holiday. Or a Saturday holiday followed by normal Sunday closure.

But, tomorrow (Thursday), will probably be the last day you will be able to walk into a bank lobby, unless you have called ahead and scheduled an appointment.

Otherwise, drive-thru only.

SpaceLifeFormMarch 18, 2020 4:52 PM

@ Clive, Anders, Myliit, MarkH

So, after Friday, NYSE floor trading stopped.

How does that High Frequency Trading work again?

If it has not been obvious the last two weeks, it functions well. (For it's purpose)

SpaceLifeFormMarch 18, 2020 5:42 PM

@ Clive, Anders, MarkH, Myliit, All

Infectious disease modeller/epidemiologist may be infected

hxxps://mobile.twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1240171876695117824

La AbejaMarch 18, 2020 6:23 PM

@SpaceLifeForm

So, after Friday, NYSE floor trading stopped.

How does that High Frequency Trading work again?

That's New York. They're not that technically astute. There's actually some guy on the floor yelling out so many hundred shares of such and such a stock at such and such a price, and if there aren't any takers, he's got a crowd of clients waiting right outside the door on Wall Street to bust the place, grab him by the throat, and pummel him into selling the stock at their asking price.

I don't think they actually have any women on that floor b/c guns are banned and the traders have only their fists to defend themselves from the crowd. They call it a "fast paced" work environment, because if it were "hostile", they'd be liable for Title IX harassment lawsuits etc. Their high heels and swaying hips just get in the way, the ladies can't be expected to carry 70-lb bankers' boxes like the men, there's no room for wheelchairs, and the company's affordable health insurance plan won't cover foot surgery for bunions.

myliitMarch 18, 2020 7:29 PM

@gordo, SLF, Sed Contra, vas pup, Curious, Clive Robinson, Wael, previous posters, etc., and misc. popcorn eaters

gordo wrote:

“ Given your your most recent footnote above: Are you suggesting that the IC has stopped going after the President?”

As a law enforcement officer once said to me, something like:

“I’m not going to answer that; this is not a deposition or interrogatory ...”, what do you think? Who benefits? How long until Trump has an authoritarian state, ie. pre-election, 1 yr, 2 yr , 3 yr., etc., or is it too late?

What country(s) benefit from Trump; certainly not the USA if we are two (2) weeks behind Italy with coronavirus:

Coronavirus fighting countries

Global warming fighting countries

Your country?

Crony, nepotism, capitalism; or is Kushner a rocket scientist or scapegoat, etc., please don’t check your brain at the coat rack ..., type countries

Global recession adverse countries? How stupid are we? Who has been shorting what?

China?

Russia?

Might Putin consider Trump a net liability by now? Since when? Why, why not?

..
.

myliitoMarch 18, 2020 8:39 PM

Don’t die is state?

Don’t die in what state?

Inteststateslatetate? Du wah?

How stupid are u ordouthinkeyeam?

Hint: KrishnaDuWah


Loop

# Hint: Have you updated ur will? Recently? Don’t worry, c book, “How to die happily” ...

Repeat

WaelMarch 18, 2020 11:34 PM

@myliit, ...

If we are two (2) weeks behind Italy with coronavirus:

Short story: ain't nobody behind anybody,

Not so short story: behind in infection numbers... or test numbers? I say the exponential growth is a factor of the number of tests, not an indication of the rate of infection. The virus has been known "officially" since late last year. I say it infected x% of the world population and continues to spread. The numbers in these sites are misleading. Example:

Suppose 50% of the world population is already infected, some are asymptomatic, some think they have a cold, and some sadly just didn't make it. The ones who show severe symptoms get tested. The ones who cough and have a fever, get tested.

If we have 50% infected population: how would the graph of random test results look like?

Whatever the case may be: this one is the mother of all crown viruses. A mamavirus -- in other words: a nasty mf. Stay safe ;) oh, and stock up on toilet paper: it's gotta be the first thing people think about. Go figure! I mean if you have nothing to eat, you really shouldn't be worried about toilet paper. It's just not how things work!

WaelMarch 19, 2020 12:07 AM

two (2) weeks behind

Let's be proactive for once and try to stay ahead: let's start sequencing genomes of viruses that infect centipedes to prepare for COVID-20. She published the video this month! This month! I hope the rule: "Survival of the fittest"[1] applies before we're all doomed!

[1] Or "Demise of the Nastiest"

JG4March 19, 2020 1:16 AM

This one will be worth the electrons and rust.

@Wael - "Ain't nobody behind..."

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/infection-trajectory-flattening-the-covid19-curve/

I've got a link to arcgis that has an alarming rate of increase in confirmed cases, but I couldn't figure out how to strip the tracking data out of the url. It's an elegant data presentation and navigation tool.

Showing just short of 220,000 confirmed cases with just short of 9,000 dead. This could thin the herd by 1% of billions. It is particularly dangerous to those with metabolic syndrome. It seems less lethal than the 1918 pandemic, but it's still unwelcome.

I think that this is going to lead to an existential crisis for the global financial system. The dollar wrecking ball is in full swing.

I have some newfound respect for BillG. "When I was a kid..."

The next outbreak? We’re not ready | Bill Gates
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI
9,811,854 views•Apr 3, 2015

Clive RobinsonMarch 19, 2020 1:25 AM

@ Wael,

Nice to here you are still with us and your sense of humour burns bright ;-)

With regards,

Go figure! I mean if you have nothing to eat, you really shouldn't be worried about toilet paper. It's just not how things work!

In your calculation did you include the "fear factor" apparently that can loosen the tightest of control freeks...

But this desire for toilet paper started in "The land gus under". Where the price of a roll was $1.68 AUS in bulk. Now I know the Aussie Dollar is a bit "soft" at ~2AUD =1GBP but even so that's still a high price for asswipe, back in "Pom land" we pay as little as 11pence per roll in bulk packs, and a "branded" six pack would be £2-50 or 42p/roll that's still less than half the Aussie bulk price.

@ any arbitrary chap,

    According to the state of our supermarket shelves, the german dish is noodles with toilet paper.

I think that's the "Extra Fibre Speciality dish" at the bottom of Wong Kei's old[1] menu ;-)

The citizens of certain Continental European countries are known to be concerned about their "movments" and it's reflected in the design of their "porcelain"...

[1] Wong Kei's restaurant pronounced as "wonky's" in London's Chinatown used to be famed for it's "rude service" old style almost taty decor but good prices and plentiful Cantonese dishes. Sadly back in 2014 it got taken over and refurbished and it's just not the same...

WaelMarch 19, 2020 2:23 AM

@Clive Robinson,

Nice to here you are still with us...

Thank you, always here ;)

your sense of humour burns bright ;-)

Complement accepted :)

In your calculation did you include the "fear factor" apparently that can loosen the tightest of control freeks...

If you drop "control" and use "cheeks", the message would be preserved :) Nope! ignored that factor.

but even so that's still a high price for asswipe

There's an abundance of worthy newspapers for the task.

WaelMarch 19, 2020 2:47 AM

@JG4,

I've got a link to arcgis that has an alarming rate of increase in confirmed cases

I've seen similar ones. Still could be misleading. It'll be meaningful if the whole population was tested, or if we correlated the number of tests to confirmed infections in each country. For example: country x ran 1000 tests, and 100 people were found to be positive. Country y ran 100 tests and 2 people were found to be positive. Which country has more infections? Statistics (not my favorite subject) is 80% bs.

This could thin the herd by 1% of billions.

Not far-fetched. It's not like the herd will live forever, absent COVID-19, though!

I have some newfound respect for BillG. "When I was a kid..."

I didn't. I developed respect as I got older.

The next outbreak? We’re not ready | Bill Gates

That's a no-brainer! Unless we have an automated system that predicts such events and prepares vaccines and cures in near real-time, we'll ever remain unprepared. Was talking with my brother yesterday (he's a doctor) and asked him: I know some bacteria are useful, are there any useful viruses? He gave me a surprising answer: yes! There's research of using viruses to transfer specifically designed DNA into cells to cure some diseases such as diabetes. The problem is how to make it target specific regions and not the whole body.

Clive RobinsonMarch 19, 2020 4:35 AM

@ Wael,

There's an abundance of worthy newspapers for the task.

And soon to be worthless "paper currency" that no one will want to touch with any part of their body.

Near wortless as the UK bank notes are, they are atleast made of easily sanitized plastic...

Clive RobinsonMarch 19, 2020 5:01 AM

@ Wael,

I know some bacteria are useful, are there any useful viruses?

The answer is a not surprising yes.

When you turn the question around a bit and consider there are around 10^31 virus types on this planet, it would be probabilisticaly very difficult for all of them not to be usefull in some way...

Consider for instance the bacteriophage, also known by the press as a phage. It is a virus for bacteria. that is it infects and replicates within bacteria and their weirder less known archaea cousins.

As you are aware anti-bacterial drugs are becoming less and less effective with time. In Eastern Europe and Russia during the cold war a lot of research was done into the use of "Phage Therepy" where if a serious bacteria had infected someone they could be given the harmless to them phages, that would attack the bacteria and thus assist our immune systems by killing the bacteria.

It's a subject that goes back more than a lifetime or two, but the Western Big Pharma are not interested in investigating them. Not because they are not safe or not efficatious --in fact they can be more so-- but because there is no profit for them in doing so.

One of the silly assumptions the field of economics makes is that what is good for business is good for society. Well this is just one of many examples where economics is wrong...

gordoMarch 19, 2020 5:06 AM

@ myliit,

"I’m not going to answer that; this is not a deposition or interrogatory ...”, what do you think?

I think things got off on the wrong foot. The narrative's been cast.

WaelMarch 19, 2020 6:13 AM

@Clive Robinson,

When you turn the question around a bit and consider there are around 10^31

Wasn't aware it's that many types. I guess I never thought about it! I also know about bacteriophage since high school, but never thought they could be useful.

myliitMarch 19, 2020 8:27 AM

Does this have merit?

https://www.emptywheel.net/2020/03/17/shelter-in-place/#comment-833171

“... Rayne
March 18, 2020 at 10:47 am
Oh fooey…would have been a perfect opportunity to rule out influenza [ regarding people showing symptoms of flu or coronavirus ].

Anybody reading this who can’t get a COVID-19 test while suffering influenza-like illness symptoms, PLEASE ask for an influenza test to rule out flu while providing CDC with valuable data about possible COVID-19 locations.

Reply
Frank Probst
March 18, 2020 at 11:18 am
What Rayne said. But if I’m guessing on the COVID-19 virus, I think that most tests that are already being done (like, say, the tests that are actually being done in other countries) can give you a “viral load” number. Whether or not they WILL give you that info is less certain, simply because in order to do it well, you need to have VERY good controls. Most of what I’ve seen suggests that they’re using equipment and reagents that you’d use for quantitative RT-PCR, so the test reports for the tests that are being done may have a number rather than just “POSITIVE” or “NEGATIVE” on them. I know that this is already being done on a research basis, because the paper about the 6 month-old in Singapore from a week or two ago had viral loads in it. But since I haven’t seen a single test report from a US lab, I don’t know what they’re doing here. I also don’t know how much regulation the FDA does on tests like this, so it may take a while to get the test up to their standards.

Bottom line: I don’t have a clue when this will be available. I should know more by Friday. ...”


myliitMarch 19, 2020 8:53 AM

@Sed Contra

From your SFgate article: “ Andrea Crisanti, an infections expert at Imperial College London, was involved with the experiment and told news outlets that half of the carriers exhibited no symptoms.

“In the UK, there are a whole lot of infections that are completely ignored,” Crisanti told the Financial Times. “We were able to contain the outbreak here because we identified and eliminated the ‘submerged’ infections and isolated them. That is what makes the difference.”

Anyone who tested positive was placed under quarantine, as were individuals that came into recent contact with the infected. The town's residents were then tested again 10 days later, and just .3 percent of the population was found to be carrying the virus. However, at least six infected individuals were asymptomatic and would not have been tested in most other countries.

This experiment obviously cannot be replicated on a larger scale — especially as the United States is currently failing to test even those displaying symptoms — but Crisanti believes that testing asymptomatic individuals may be the key to stopping the spread.

"It is clear that you cannot test all Italians — but you can test people close to those who are asymptomatic," Crisanti told Sky News. "We must use asymptomatic cases as an alarm bell to widen our action."

Crisanti also warned Sky News that, "for every patient that shows symptoms for COVID-19 there were about 10 who don't."

Mass asymptomatic testing has also helped South Korea withstand the epidemic without the major city-wide shelter-in-place orders, restaurant closures and travel restrictions being implemented elsewhere.

The number of new cases in South Korea has been steadily decreasing in recent days, in large part due to the fact that the country can test tens of thousands of people per day. As of Tuesday, the United States has tested 60,000 people total.”

Clive RobinsonMarch 19, 2020 9:39 AM

@ Curious,

With regards,

    "Netflix urged to slow down streaming to stop the internet from breaking"

Not at all surprised, you realy don't think "people working from home" for the first time in their lives are realy going to be that disaplined to make a "work" rather than "home" environment for themselves.

Also it's not NetFlix that's "Breaking the Internet"... No it's all those crapy colabaritive working systems designed for LAN's or at best uncontested WAN's that are causing the issues.

Whilst work places might have "contingency plans" they have either never done a full scale test, or if they have it's been when the Internet was quiet.

I've mentioned the issues of the Just In Time (JIT) and LEAN mentality as used by C-Suite types. They have exchanged "resiliance" for "short term profit" "cost and maintainence reduction". Such systems are not in the slightest bit resiliant in their own right, worse any resilience they have is based on verly long supply chains that are now effectively decimated by the close down of international travel. And worse yet the other end of those supply chains are in countries with their own "National Security" considerations and eminent domain[1] laws. We've already seen India do the "Our drugs are for our Hindus" export restrictions, and whilst China has not said they are applying export restrictions they have made it clear that the increased manufacture of Personal Protective Equipment is a necessary requirment to get China back on it's feet. Which in a way is actually a good idea because only when their industry is back to the point where they are producing surplus to their requirments can they go on to supply the rest of the world.

However there is a major major issue that is about to explode all over the place, which is food...

I've been "advised" to go into self quarantine for 120days... Obviously before I or the many others who have been "advised to" on medical or age grounds, need to get 130-150 days of food in call it 21weeks worth.

However as those that saw Donald Trump and his "feel good adjectives" speech should have realised when he urged people not to get more than one weeks food in at a time, there is an issue...

And that issues is what will eventualy be called "the supply line crisis", we just do not have the capacity or the ability to create the capacity for people to effectively self issolate for very long.

Which means "containment" of the virus can nolonger happen even if there was the political will and guard labour to do it. All we can do now is try and "flatten the curve" such that the cases stay within the capacity of the health care system.

The problem is that some places have good health care and others do not, thus there is a very significant incentive for people to migrate as "health refugees". Trying to stop such movments of probably highly infectious people can only happen in two basic ways,

1, Ensure they don't have a reason to emigrate.

2, Total boarder lockdown, enforced by the military with "no mercy" orders.

The first is probably now imposible to do, and the second will stop those long supply chains that keep us alive...

A bit of a Security conundrum without a doubt, hopefully we will all live to see it successfully worked out, but the odds are not good.

[1] Eminent Domain or Sovereign Rights can be best described these days as "Naked theft by Government" always comes into play in emergencies or disasters, sometimes at the point of a gun or other coercive tactics by "Guard Labour". Such things can escalate easily as history shows with the likes of "Water Wars" and we are almost certainly likely to see it, especially when backed by religion or ethnic differences. As the modern saying has it,

    When you have nothing left to loose, you loose it.

Which equates to social unrest in the short term and upheaval in the long term with the old hierarchies broken and those who were at their top disposed of. As an older syaing that Thomas Jefferson wrote in a letter[2] when he was in France,

    The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is it’s natural manure.

[2] The letter written in Nov 1787 has other parts that are equally deserving of being better known, and infact describe the issue of what is and is not known,

    [C]an history produce an instance of a rebellion so honourably conducted? I say nothing of it’s motives. They were founded in ignorance, not wickedness. God forbid we should ever be 20 years without such a rebellion. The people cannot be all, and always, well informed. The past which is wrong will be discontented in proportion to the importance of the facts they misconceive; if they remain quiet under such misconceptions it is a lethargy, the forerunner of death to the public liberty.

You can read more of the letter at,

https://www.loc.gov/exhibits/jefferson/105.html

JG4March 19, 2020 9:57 AM

Just for the record, wartime pricing for government purchases traditionally is done on a cost-plus basis, not the Wild West of random pricing seen in the US sickcare crime cartels.

Here's a clean link to arcgis:

https://coronavirus-disasterresponse.hub.arcgis.com/

I don't recall commenting on phages before, but I appreciate the ever-helpful discussion. The description of the guy being eaten by bacteria is pretty gruesome. A nice example of entropy maximization.

https://www.statnews.com/2016/12/07/virus-bacteria-phage-therapy/

https://www.statnews.com/2018/10/16/phage-therapy-viruses-carl-merril-navy/

https://www.statnews.com/2019/05/08/phage-therapy-how-genetically-engineered-viruses-may-have-prolonged-teens-life/

Sed Contra March 19, 2020 10:06 AM

@ myliit et al

Re: total testing

Besides total testing, is there a place for random testing in the general scheme of getting ahead of the virus infecting curve ?

JonKnowsNothingMarch 19, 2020 10:21 AM

@Clive @All

re:

Whilst work places might have "contingency plans" they have either never done a full scale test, or if they have it's been when the Internet was quiet.

Eons ago when I worked for one of those ginormous corporations in a critical infrastructure industry:

We had massive IBM systems and oodles of metal canisters of tape backups. Being a critical industry it was important that things didn't stop. The contingency plan in case of catastrophic failure of the campus systems, the corporate helicopter would use the CEO landing pad on the roof and fly a set of those metal boxes (tapes inside of course) to our designated "emergency backup provider".

Our Prime Directive was: Get there FIRST

Because every other critical infrastructure provider was going to be doing the same thing.

Dry runs of course, worked perfectly...

JonKnowsNothingMarch 19, 2020 10:46 AM

@Clive @All
re:

The problem is that some places have good health care and others do not, thus there is a very significant incentive for people to migrate as "health refugees".

What we can also see is the "flight from epicenters". People trying to out run the virus by heading to "other locations".

There are 2 types of flight:

1. Flight to Bug-Out, Prepper, survivalist camps. Designed to be isolated and be hidden from anyone and everyone. Folks go there and stay there. No outsiders admitted.

2. Flight away from "contagion points". These flights are unreasoned, and folks may carry the very thing they are fleeing with them. Currently, all those second homes are becoming crowded with COVID-19 Refugees. Wales, Italy, France, USA, Germany and likely to any location where a relative or friend willing is to take them in.

The "unreasoned" part of this flight, is that, for the most part these second homes are in "vacation spots". Smaller communities with smaller resources. It's the "quaint" aspect of the second home. They are running to areas, with no ability to care for them at all and of course, since they are wealthy enough to have such an abode, they fully expect first-class first-in-line treatment from the community. Well.. the Pub's closed, the Grocer is closed, the one Restaurant is closed and the one MD is sick.

It will be a rather sad realization for this second group that they've not only placed all the people in the village in danger, but their probability of dying is greater since there are even less resources to share.

As you cannot get a COVID-19 test in the USA without a signed permission slip from The Don, you aren't going to get it in rural Wyoming any sooner.

ht tps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retreat_(survivalism)

A retreat is a place of refuge for those in the survivalist subculture or movement. A retreat is also sometimes called a bug-out location (BOL). Survivalist retreats are intended to be self-sufficient and easily defended, and are generally located in sparsely populated rural areas.

(url fractured to prevent autorun)

myliitMarch 19, 2020 10:56 AM

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/19/america-far-right-coronavirus-outbreak-trump-alex-jones

Coronavirus outbreak: Disinformation and blame: how America's far right is capitalizing on coronavirus

“The pandemic, a situation in which people are panic-buying supplies, is ideal for a movement powered by fear and lies

Thu 19 Mar 2020 02.00 EDT Last modified on Thu 19 Mar 2020 04.20 EDT

Conspiracy broadcaster Alex Jones has used the outbreak to step up his aggressive pitching for bulk food products and other survival goods sold on his website. Photograph: Jonathan Drake/Reuters

The far right in America has received the coronavirus pandemic in much the same manner as any other event: with disinformation, conspiracies and scapegoating. Many seem to see it as a significant opportunity, whether it is for financial gain, recruiting new followers, or both.

The delayed and much criticized response to coronavirus by the Trump administration has helped them, leaving many Americans confused, bereft of information and looking for answers. A situation in which people are panic-buying supplies is ideal for a movement powered by fear and lies.

(Trump says 'keep politics out' of coronavirus then picks fight with Democrats
Read more)

Apocalyptic narratives – whether of societal collapse, biblical rapture, or race war – are the central way that the a spectrum of far-right movements draw in followers and resources. These narratives use fear to draw followers closer, allowing leaders to direct their followers’ actions, and maybe fleece them blind.

For the survivalist elements of the far right, the coronavirus provides an opportunity to say that they told us so, win hearts and minds and make money. If they’re lucky, they might even get a hearing by the mainstream media.

The conspiracy broadcaster Alex Jones, for example, who has been warning of imminent cataclysms for more than 20 years, has used the outbreak to step up his aggressive pitching for bulk food products and other survival goods sold on his website.

Other [ Conspiracy Theory Practi5ioners (“‘CTP”’) ][1] have been assisted by mainstream media outlets ...”

[1] I liked that typo

SpaceLifeFormMarch 19, 2020 1:00 PM

@ Clive, Anders, MarkH, Myliit, All

Finally, what I have arguing for.

The State Department is expected to raise the Global Travel Advisory to Level 4: Do Not Travel

lurkerMarch 19, 2020 1:51 PM

Anecdotal Evidence: from a daughter living in London, reporting some friends age (~30) have been confirmed and recovered cases. Their consensus is that actual cases are probably somewhat higher than reported because symptoms are mild amongst fit & young, who are also predisposed in present circumstances to avoid clinics and hospitals. So all the clicking of abacus must assume a reservoir of asymptomatic diseased population of unknown size.

SpaceLifeFormMarch 19, 2020 1:52 PM

@ Clive, Anders, MarkH, Myliit, All

Charter (Spectrum) is royally screwing up.

Blocking WFH. When 80% of employees could WFH. And a reported case at Denver office.

hxxps://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/03/charter-faces-blowback-after-banning-work-from-home-during-pandemic/

myliitMarch 19, 2020 2:49 PM

from a company that manufactures air filters

https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/best-materials-make-diy-face-mask-virus/

“ The Best Material for Making a Homemade DIY Mask ...

Researchers at Cambridge University tested a wide range of household materials for homemade masks. To measure effectiveness, they shot Bacillus atrophaeus bacteria (0.93-1.25 microns) and Bacteriophage MS virus (0.023 microns in size) at different household materials. ...”

myliitMarch 19, 2020 3:31 PM

More on DIY face masks w/photo

https://www.democracynow.org/2020/3/19/headlines/hospital_workers_produce_diy_masks_as_medical_supplies_dwindle

“Hospitals around the United States are already reporting shortages of testing swabs and protective gear to shield medical workers from infection. In Washington state, workers at Providence St. Joseph Health purchased vinyl sheets, foam and industrial tape from Home Depot and began manufacturing their own face shields and masks after supplies began to dwindle. President Trump said he was immediately deploying two Navy hospital ships to free up capacity in civilian hospitals, but the Pentagon acknowledged Wednesday the USNS Comfort and USNS Mercy will take weeks to deploy. “


Clive RobinsonMarch 19, 2020 4:37 PM

@ SpaceLifeForm, ALL,

neil_ferguson tests positive

It's a shame, I hope he only gets it mildly.

As I understand it the Cardiology Dept at the Royal Free Hospital (RFH) North West London has been in effect closed due to the number of staff that are symptomatic. The Cardiology Wards at the RFH are on the floor below the only infectious issolation ward in London...

Oh apparently the policy is that medical staff "are not to be tested" just stay at home with their families... Apparently this is a "command from the Dept Health" or "the political wing of the NHS" so that any sick or dead medical staff won't be added to the UK statistics...

On with the bad news,

The fact that the virus in Thailand is spreading easily, suggests as Thailand is "tropical" that the virus is unlikely to be very seasonal if at all.

By the time you read this World Wide deaths will have crossed the ten thousand mark, and recorded cases will be over the quater of a million mark.

The figures for the US are growing very rapidly and the more than 2500 new cases today bring it up to around 12,000 cases in total. Most experts think this is at best only a 20th of those actually infected. Also scenes of youngish revelers in Florida and California on TV has caused comment from several places and the President has expressed his displeasure.

And some good news,

Cruise liners have become named yet again as "floating Petri dishes" and one that has been rejected by many nations has been alowed to dock in cuba and the passengers flown home. Cuba is a small place but they are known to punch above their weight when it comes to medicine and international emergancies.

In the new world epi-center Italy, China has flown in experienced medical personnel to assist, lets hope they can help Italy get ontop of the infections quickly and get them under control and back within the Italian healthcare systems ability to handle the sick who need medical support.

In Manchester UK hotel owners have got together and cleared their hotels of the public, and they are making their rooms available free of charge to city front line medical staff so that they won't have to travel home each day thus potentialy infect their families or fellow travelers.

And to all those out there giving a helping hand where you can I wish you well and thanks and hope you inspire others to do likewise.

SpaceLifeFormMarch 19, 2020 5:25 PM

@ Clive, Anders, MarkH, Myliit, All

This might explain the runs on toilet paper.


Almost half of coronavirus patients have digestive symptoms, study finds

hxxps://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-digestive-symptoms-diarrhea-almost-half-of-patients/

Diarrhea and other digestive symptoms are the main complaint in nearly half of coronavirus patients, Chinese researchers report.

Clive RobinsonMarch 19, 2020 5:31 PM

@ JonKnows...,

Dry runs of course, worked perfectly...

Ouch a colission of choppers would not be pleasant...

A few years ago a chopper flew into a building site crane in Vauxhall in freezing fog just a very short distance from a major railway interchange and bus station, and MI6's little place at Vauxhall Cross on the south side of the River Thames... The bits went every where and it created chaos in the morning rush hour. It was only that it was just before 8:00AM that more people were not killed or injured.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vauxhall_helicopter_crash

To put it simply helicopters do not play nicely together...

Clive RobinsonMarch 19, 2020 6:03 PM

@ SpaceLifeForm, ALL,

This might explain the runs on toilet paper.

That gets you a +1,

Not sure if you realy ment to say that or not ;-)

But in the south of the UK "the runs" is a euphemism for the result of various digestive tract infections and other diseases. It came from a time when toilets were not part of the house, being down the bottom of the garden or shared with other homes. The implication being you have to move rather swiftly to get to "your convenience"...

WaelMarch 19, 2020 6:13 PM

@SpaceLifeForm, @Clive Robinson,

+1, eh? :)

This might explain the runs on toilet paper. Almost half of coronavirus patients have digestive symptoms, study finds

Study published today; toilet paper became scarce much earlier. Might not explain it!

The implication being you have to move rather swiftly to get to "your convenience"...

+1 for the etymology!

JonKnowsNothingMarch 19, 2020 7:41 PM

Several disturbing MSM reports on some COVID-19 Disaster Capitalism programs getting ramped up.

  • Report that major retail corporations are requesting 5 months Rent Free or more. Gives an indication of how long the retail industry thinks the bottleneck will last.
  • Report of "market supply shortage product price revaluation" from Big Pharma on how to maximize profits from COVID-19. Lots of product price gouging options on the playing field. A main target is "Remdesivir" an antiviral that works on MERS, SARS, Zika and others, owned by Gilead Sciences, known for their $84,000 per year cost for Hepatitis C treatment."
  • Report that Israel used its secretive Mossad intelligence agency and launched a covert international operation to acquire 100,000 coronavirus testing kits. Not to be left off the honorable mention list: Shin Bet domestic intelligence agency has also been involved. Two things of note: they got the stuff from countries "they don't recognize" and they forgot a few parts. The program is on-going to source 4 million kits from "other places".
  • Elon is also having difficulties with running his Fremont Car Factory at full tilt, even though that area has a "shelter-in-place order" from local officials designed to shutter “non-essential” businesses.Somehow Elon doesn't quite get a car factory isn't an essential business to anyone except him. He is generously reducing his staff exposure from 10,000 to 2,500. Very generous.


ht tps://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/19/billionaire-retailers-seek-rent-cuts-during-coronavirus-crisis

cuts of up to 50% ...asking landlords for rent holidays or cuts ...three-month holiday across its entire estate...for five months rent free....

ht tps://theintercept.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-vaccine-medical-supplies-price-gouging/

investment bankers have pressed health care companies on the front lines of fighting the novel coronavirus, including drug firms developing experimental treatments and medical supply firms, to consider ways that they can profit from the crisis.

ht tps://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/19/israeli-spies-source-100000-coronavirus-tests-covert-foreign-mission

Israel’s secretive Mossad intelligence agency launched a covert international operation this week to fly in up to 100,000 coronavirus testing kits. “Unfortunately, what arrived is not exactly what we were lacking … Our problem is we’re missing swabs”

ht tps://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/mar/19/elon-musk-coronavirus-tesla-factory-california

Musk decided to keep the Tesla factory in the San Francisco Bay Area open despite a “shelter-in-place” order from local officials designed to shutter “non-essential” businesses. Tesla has reportedly agreed to reduce staffing levels from 10,000 to 2,500 amid the health crisis

(url fractured to prevent autorun)

SpaceLifeFormMarch 19, 2020 7:44 PM

@ Wael, Clive

Sorry for the gallows humour.

People are freaking out. Gallows humour is how people are trying to cope.

If 'The Runs' on TP are not a panic buy, then this could be a bad leading indicator.


veritasMarch 19, 2020 11:15 PM


Soon after he offered public assurances that the government was ready to battle the coronavirus, the powerful chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Richard Burr, sold off a significant percentage of his stocks, unloading between $628,000 and $1.72 million of his holdings on Feb. 13 in 33 separate transactions.

As the head of the intelligence committee, Burr, a North Carolina Republican, has access to the government’s most highly classified information about threats to America’s security. His committee was receiving daily coronavirus briefings around this time, according to a Reuters story.

A week after Burr’s sales, the stock market began a sharp decline and has lost about 30% since.

On Thursday, Burr came under fire after NPR obtained a secret recording from Feb. 27, in which the lawmaker gave a VIP group at an exclusive social club a much more dire preview of the economic impact of the coronavirus than what he had told the public.

According to the NPR report, Burr told attendees of the luncheon held at the Capitol Hill Club: “There’s one thing that I can tell you about this: It is much more aggressive in its transmission than anything that we have seen in recent history ... It is probably more akin to the 1918 pandemic.”


Senator Dumped Up to $1.7 Million of Stock After Reassuring Public About Coronavirus Preparedness
https://www.propublica.org/article/senator-dumped-up-to-1-6-million-of-stock-after-reassuring-public-about-coronavirus-preparedness

Clive RobinsonMarch 20, 2020 1:02 AM

@ JonKnowsNothing, ALL,

Several disturbing MSM reports on some COVID-19 Disaster Capitalism programs getting ramped up.

They are basically "living down to expectations", especially "Big Phama" in the US. I would not be surprised if Gilead Sciences's antiviral was found not to be very efficatious in the field even though lab testing might make it appear ideal[1]

As for the Israeli IC and it's little games, I've run into them in the past as I've mentioned before on this blog, and trust me they are more than happy "to steal from their own" for the benifit of a select few, thus that they should in effect steal,

    from countries "they don't recognize"

Should suprise no one[2].

@ veritas, ALL,

Senate Intelligence Committee, Richard Burr, sold off a significant percentage of his stocks...

In what sounds like significant "insider trading" oh and god alone knows what breaches of "National Security".

There will be no prizes for guessing what happens over this, precisely nothing in the way of censure, and probably a lot more "support" in the way of funds in the future...

@ ALL,

It would be nice to be considered a "cynic" about such behaviours and thus be proved wrong. But unfortunately my cynicism about those who consider themselves exceptional fails to be sufficient to match their inequities, thus I guess I fail to be sufficient of a "realist" as well...

[1] Let's put it this way antivirals generally only work best in the early incubation period and are of no use at other times, possibly even harmful. Therefore when testing is done in the lab, tests can be run over and over and the most optimal results selected for "selling the product" as efficatious. However if the reports from China and other places are correct, there are no reliable signs of when you are first infected and go into the incubation period, thus you would have to take it on a continuous basis... Which means you are for the most part paying a fourtune for a drug that is not doing you any good most of the time. Oh and don't forget most drugs have side effects, especially with longterm use...

[2] As I've mentioned a few days ago there is nothing like an emergancy especially a "National Emergancy" to bring out the worst religious, race and similar prejudices in those in power. Look as India and it's export ban, at first it looks like a "National Security" grab, then you find out that it's about internal politics and it's for "Hindus only" not the rest of the people who live in India[3]

[3] Whilst China was manufacturing PPE for domestic use only, they are now having got over their crisis reaching out to the world again. As part of this they have sent qualified medical personnel to Italy along with equipment etc.

Clive RobinsonMarch 20, 2020 1:28 AM

@ SpaceLifeForm, Wael, ALL,

People are freaking out. Gallows humour is how people are trying to cope.

True, but I'm thinking that "Gallows" is aiming a little high and what you might call "midden" humour is better ;-)

Which leaves open the opportunity for "rock bottom toilet humour"[1], hence my link to you a little while ago to Charles Sale's[2] "The Specialist",

https://www.toiletrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/The-Specialist-by-Charles-Sale.pdf

It's a short read, and yes I have a copy on my book shelf.

[1] Especially if we get a few "under the bridge" types come through.

[2] Oh you might want to look up what the word "sale" means in French, sometimes, life is full of coincidences sometimes not.

WaelMarch 20, 2020 2:30 AM

@Clive Robinson, @SpaceLifeForm,

Oh you might want to look up what the word "sale" means in French

nomen est omen :)

CuriousMarch 20, 2020 6:25 AM

Heh, it just occurred to me, that if one as a civilian really needed a secure suit doing important work in this pandemic, one could probably put on a diving suit with an air tank. Sounds reasonable right? I am no expert on diving equipement, but I would think the stuff would cover ones eyes, nose, mouth and presumably with an airtight mask, and using an isolated air supply.

CuriousMarch 20, 2020 6:31 AM

To add to what I wrote:

On second thought, I guess I forgot about what the mouth piece breathing apparatus wold look like, unsure now if common diving suit equipment actually covers the face the way I imagined at first. I guess I sort of imagined a full face mask.

Also a critical assumption of mine above, and again I am no expert on this, is that one would be dealing with a virus that doesn't infect via skin contact, but mucus membranes like eyes, nose and mouth. Unsure what to think about the ears in this regard, if an ear canal is considered being a mucus membrane as well.

Clive RobinsonMarch 20, 2020 8:28 AM

@ Wael,

nomen est omen

It's a dirty job but somebodys got to do it ;-)

Clive RobinsonMarch 20, 2020 8:45 AM

@ Curious,

Heh, it just occurred to me, that if one as a civilian really needed a secure suit doing important work in this pandemic, one could probably put on a diving suit with an air tank.

Why bother going to such "odd" lengths.

When a full face motorcycle helmet and leathers will do the same job better.

All you need to do is arange a clean airsupply to come up into the helmet and blow down over the face.

If you don't know how to do the mechanics of it go watch the film "The Martian" their special effects guys worked out the basic mechanics.

myliitMarch 20, 2020 9:24 AM

@Wael, Sed Contra, misc. non-popcorn eaters, misc. popcorn eaters

Regarding Coronavirus testing in USA,

To state the obvious, it appears that the lack of testing capability in the USA is a big fly in the ointment. But perhaps useful to Trump as he tries to orchestrate chaos to his financial and political advantage.

But, I don’t know.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/coronavirus-deniers-outbreak-hoax/2020/03/19/46bc5e46-6872-11ea-b313-df458622c2cc_story.html

National: “Coronavirus deniers and hoaxers persist despite dire warnings, claiming ‘it’s mass hysteria’ ...

Virus deniers vow to continue on with their daily activities with little adjustment, convinced that the unprecedented reaction to the virus is nothing more than a plot by the media or liberals out to get Trump. The Pew Research Center released a poll Wednesday that found that 62 percent of adults say the media is exaggerating the risk of the virus. [ https://www.people-press.org/2020/03/18/u-s-public-sees-multiple-threats-from-the-coronavirus-and-concerns-are-growing/ ] ...”

https://www.democracynow.org/2020/3/19/us_economy_coronavirus_stimulus_joseph_stiglitz

“ Joseph Stiglitz: Trump’s “Trickle-Down” Economic Plans Are Not Enough to Meet Coronavirus Challenge”


https://www.democracynow.org/2020/3/19/naomi_klein_coronavirus_capitalism

“ AMY GOODMAN: Today we spend much of the hour looking at the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, what some are calling coronavirus capitalism. Soon we’ll be joined by Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, whose new book is People, Power and Profits: Progressive Capitalism for an Age of Discontent. But first we begin with a new video by author and activist Naomi Klein, produced by The Intercept. In 2007, Klein wrote The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism. Now she argues Trump’s plan is a pandemic shock doctrine, but it’s not the only way forward. The video opens with this quote from economist Milton Friedman, who says, “Only a crisis — actual or perceived — produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around.”

NAOMI KLEIN: “Ideas that are lying around.” Friedman, one of history’s most extreme free market economists, was wrong about a whole lot, but he was right about that. In times of crisis, seemingly impossible ideas suddenly become possible. But whose ideas? Sensible, fair ones, designed to keep as many people as possible safe, secure and healthy? Or predatory ideas, designed to further enrich the already unimaginably wealthy while leaving the most vulnerable further exposed? The world economy is seizing up in the face of cascading shocks. ...”


Clive RobinsonMarch 20, 2020 10:07 AM

@ myliit,

The Pew Research Center released a poll Wednesday that found that 62 percent of adults say the media is exaggerating the risk of the virus.

There are two main conclusions you can draw from this,

1, 2/3rds of Americans do not understand exponentials and areas under a curve and integration against time.

2, Somebody has asked the question in a skewed way to get the result they want.

There are however other possabilities one of which is "politics" in all it's nasty cockroach forms.

You've heard of "Disaster Capitalism" well it's twin brother is "Disaster Politics" as with "two peas in a pod" it can be difficult telling them appart, especially as the public players may well be the same people.

Either way the objrctive is personal "status" over the expense of the rest of society. Often they will find an economist that needs a new office or grant for their University to come up with some nonsense but plusable sounding idea. One such is the "Trickle Down Effect" it does not take much mathmatical skill to realise why that idea is still "faux news" for all the times it's been troted out.

gordoMarch 20, 2020 12:30 PM

The double meanings of dates like '911' and '2020' are amazing. They write their own histories.

Clive RobinsonMarch 20, 2020 2:14 PM

@ Anders,

So far the deaths recorded today are ~1200 with 627 in Italy and 212 in Spain with most other Western European nations reporting deaths like 40 in the UK.

If we look at the US figures, if you believe them they are about a week and a half behind Western Europe.

There was a radio news item about the Govenor of California indicating that unless the Federal restrictions were removed there would be 22million Californians infected within a month...

So we are moving into "Joe Stalin" territory of "One death is a tragady a million is just a statistic"

The point few appear to be grasping is that the disease spreads from person to person not by magic but close contact. Further that even in the best medically provisioned countries in the world, resorses are finite and the difference between CFR of no medical assistance and medical assistance is about 50:1 at the moment and it's only going to get worse as case numbers carry on rising exponentially.

@ ALL,

With regards panic buying and hording, have a think about the mixed messages you are getting told.

1, Quarantine, if you show signs of infection you have to stay in quarantine untill seven days after the signs of infection have cleared and a further seven days for those that live with you untill either you've all been ill and recovered or no other infections have started in 14 days. Realisticly that means 14-28days for many families when you are not alowed out.

2, You should only do a "normal weekly shop"...

Well the two are obviously in conflict unless you can live off of fresh air for 14-21 days.

But it gets worse, it's no secret that those with any knowledge of disease spread are talking about things getting worse and staying that way for a year or more (Spanish Flu hung in for three years).

3, Due to Just In Time (JIT) and LEAN methods there is generally only three days food in the supply chain and possibly two more in warehouses.

4, As supply chain side staff sicken as they will capacity will fall.

5, As mobility bans come into place supply chains will suffer further.

6, Much food these days comes from abroad with international flights plumeting the cost of air transport has risen 500% in some places. So it's not cost effective to move food, thus shortages will occure.

7, Switching from air freight to sea freight is going to take upto a month and a half and have a lag of two weeks atleast.

So food supplies are going to be quite scarce for two months if not more and the price of food is going to rise significantly for anything other than normal bulk cargo shipped.

Which is why politicians are having emergancy "closed door" meetings with those who are involved with all aspects of food supply. The politicos will have been told what I'm saying and worse, and it's going to happen for six months or more. What they don't want is the crime and riots that go with food shortages, as they are the ones who normally become the targets of such attacks unlike the Disaster Capitalists who most people don't even know who they are or where they live or how they protect themselves.

You can be sure that "Disaster Capitalism" will be in those meetings pushing the prices up and plans of doing it way higher by manipulating supply and demand in the weeks to come. Because they are alread not just talking about closing stores and laying everyone off unless they get a half year or year "rent / land tax" etc holiday, they are demanding it as a condition of staying open even next week. They can after all quite easily create civil unrest just by deciding which stores get resupplies and those that don't, and what they get resupplied with.

You can also guarentee that with "Disaster Capitalism" riding high any price rises will be fast and that if they fall it will be very slowely at best. Thus any sensible prices could be two or three years out.

Other businesses want the Government to give them 75% of their wages bill or they will lay staff off rather than have them Working From Home.

Any sensible person would realise that,

1, The price of food is going to go up a lot in the next six months and stay that way for some time.

2, They are not likely to have a job in the next few weeks for six months to a year or more. Even if they keep their job they will not get pay rises even close to covering the price increases on food.

Now ask yourself what would you do if you had a little spare money now?

But also consider those that for various reasons can not cook where they live, store fresh/frozen food or even wash dishes. These people are dependent on fast food and similar.

Fast Food is going to be closed not for a few weeks but months. Most fast food places can only survive a week or two at the most without income... Because whilst big retailers have "clout" and can demand all sorts of payment holidays, these little places will almost certainly not only get no assistance, they will be looked at by politicians as a "piggy bank to raid" to make up for losses from those with clout...

Remember you can sleep on stacks of tinned foods, and you don't need to cook the contents to eat from the tins, so you don't need pots etc to cook with or even plates to eat off and clean. It might not be hot food but it will put something in you belly...

As the old saying has it "First walk a mile in another mans shoes...".

ChrisMarch 20, 2020 2:43 PM

This and that:

First of all I am a tech guy i work with logic i work with math i work with problem solving, i want all information and then ... eventually i get an answer to a problem

Some people call me a sniper, as a matter of a fact i am a sniper ...

I also am a child of the cold war and i have lived a life where propaganda from sovjet union and americanos was something very common, especially over shortwave radios which at the time was the media to spread those days coronas.
And i got into radios, which led met to computers which let me to security which let me to ... somewhere

We also had our Gretas such as Mother Teresa and we have our Jesus figures such as Dalai Lama

What we have now, is a propaganda war, where people that dont have to fight any wars want to be shown as persons of power, almost certainly making wrong decisions.

This channel for me has been a place where i can go to, so that i can read some sanity, but the last weeks i have seen nothing but.

Why is it that a security blog at this rate has sunken so low as to walking the paths of propaganda

Wakeup and do the job, that includes me as well
but until i have anything important to say
i will from now on shutup and so should you rumours is the worst type of spreading when we dont need them.

//C.L//

mEntropyMarch 20, 2020 3:04 PM

This is a bit of a disjointed rant, sorry for that.

What prevents politicians to subsidize air transports and food? It'd certainly seem far more sensible to just print money for that purpose than to risk riots due to food shortages or a impoverished populace due to price hikes.

Anyhow, Bayer's Chloroquin has been used to treat people already and I suppose if its being prescribed wholesale to at-risk patients early enough, we could see the whole pandemic scare fall on its face rather early. It got FDA approval, too, so I'm not quite sold on hoarding food.

For once, when everybody hoards, we accelerate the rise of shortages only to find ourselves, in the ideal case of a treatment option, with a lot of food which may even spoil or not being to our taste to begin with and thus thrown away. So, in the interest of humanitarian ideals, I'd propose to be sensible and allow others to survive, too.

As far as spare money goes, it feels very much like some people drop thousands into hoarding at this point in time.


SpaceLifeFormMarch 20, 2020 5:07 PM

@ Clive, Anders, All

This drug combination approach looks promising.

Small study, but good results in 6 days.

Chloroquine and Azithromycin

hxxps://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Hydroxychloroquine_final_DOI_IJAA.pdf

Conclusion

Despite its small sample size our survey shows that hydroxychloroquine treatment is significantly associated with viral load reduction/disappearance in COVID-19 patients and its effect is reinforced by azithromycin.

SpaceLifeFormMarch 20, 2020 5:25 PM

@ DNS

You can just turn DoH off, and not have to deal with tor.
Then run your own dns resolver if needed.

hxxps://support.mozilla.org/en-US/kb/dns-over-https-doh-faqs

Clive RobinsonMarch 21, 2020 6:52 AM

@ SpaceLifeForm, Anders, ALL,

Chloroquine and Azithromycin

They are both drugs used in the treatment for malaria. Though Azithromycin is more usually used for clearing up STD's, ear and importantly pneumonia, traveler's diarrhea and other digestive tract infections it is alsi known to have other immune system benifits.

One reason it might be of interest is that SARS-CoV-2 originates from other CoV in other animals. Whilst it mainly appears to cause respiritory diseases in humans, in the animals CoVs are most commonly found it usually causes digestive tract disorders.

Azithromycin is one of the macrolides and belongs to the polyketide class of "natural" products (which should please some). Importabtly it does not extensively inhibit Cytochrome P450 3A4 (CYP3A4)[1].

Like some other macrolides azithromycin has both antibiotic and antifungal activity. It does this by inhibiting protein synthesis (which could conceivably slow a virus down). Being a naturak organic chemical that has "evolved" it has multiple advantages in some mammals but is extreamly poisonus to others. Whilst tested safe with humans, pregnant women it has other properties we do not fully understand. That is in quite small doses it is helpfull with other chronic diseases, like other macrolides do but we do not know why.

For instance the idiopathic lung disease "diffuse panbronchiolitis" (DPB) is prevelant in some communities and some macrolides have been used for "immunomodulation" --control the immune system-- to treat the effects of the disease. The mechanism behind the effects they have is not understood.

Thus whilst the effects of azithromycin can be both antibiotic and antifungal it obviously has a third string to it's bow.

It's not a subject I've had any recent interest in so I'd have to do quite a bit of research just to play "catch up", hopefully there will be peer reviewed papers on it within the month.

[1] Cytochrome P450 3A4 (A.K.A. CYP3A4) is one of those very inportant multifunction enzymes in the human body, and trying to understand it and how it interacts with drugs, fills several books with ease. It is one of the reasons you will find cautionary writing on prescriptions about "Grapefruit Juice",

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/CYP3A4

SpaceLifeFormMarch 21, 2020 11:39 AM

@ Clive, Anders, ALL

Chloroquine and Azithromycin

Actually, it is preferred that it be hydroxychloroquine because of fewer side-effects.

But, it does look like a treatment for severe cases.

If a hospital in NY has being doing it, and apparently no fatals since then, it must help.

Importantly, it helps also by being able discharge cases sooner, freeing up the beds.

So, in combination with stay-at-home, social distancing, it may help in reducing the hospital overload problem. Obviously, it is too late for that in some areas such as NY.

Clive RobinsonMarch 21, 2020 12:56 PM

@ SpaceLifeForm, ALL,

But, it does look like a treatment for severe cases.

As far as I'm aware both drugs are off patent and other restrictions to prescribing.

So even if it only gives a 5-10% improvment in outcomes, it's probably better than anything else we've got which is important.

Lets say we throw a massive Guard Labour enforced lock down and do as China appears to have done which is render SARS-CoV-2 "extinct" in their jurisdiction.

The problem is currently Europe but soon it will be South America and Africa.

Just one infected person getting into a virus expunged area will start a new wave of disease.

Thus whilst there is some hope Europe will get it contained and under control, there is not the same hope for either large sections of South America and Africa which will become disease reservoirs.

If the treatment could be used prophylacticly then it could stop the spread of the disease and bring it under control where health care is incapable of doing so. Thus hopefully stoping infection reservoirs or mutations happening. Also reducing or eliminating the need for those who would otherwise become "health refugees" from moving away from their homes etc.

Oh as a foot note about disease reservoirs, and potentially the biggest in North America, the Governor of California is giving his "eight weeks till 50% of Californians infected" story again. I'm not surprised certain parts of California have so many "street people" that I've been quite concerned about it myself as I've mentioned before...

WaelMarch 21, 2020 5:16 PM

@Clive Robinson,

It's a dirty job but somebodys got to do it ;-)

You ain't lying :)

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