Schneier on Security

Clive Robinson • February 9, 2020 9:21 AM

@ Anders,

There’s already for some time wiki article
with official data from National Health Commission

The resulting web page is not internaly self consistant.

For instance Confirmed UK cases are “4” with no deaths or recoveries.

But further down the page they have it as “three”.

Of note is that the Third UK case was infected in Singapore, went to France and infected atleast Five people there. This Fourth UK confirmed case apparently had contact with the Third UK case.

What has not been said is where the contact between Three and Four took place, or if Four is one of the Five in france.

If contact was in the UK then the Third UK has infected 6 people…

This would mean that the R0 is potentialy way higher than the original estimate.

Which might account why UK advice is in effect,

“Self quarantine and phone for medical assistance, and do not go to a Dr or Hospital specialists will come to you.”

But further the first graph they have up is only marginaly helpfull.

For best interpretation by eye or by ruler and pencil it should be “log of the number of people” against “linear for time” (they do have such a graph but it does not have survival rates). Also there should be “first derivitive” –rate of change– graphs that show the rate of change daily against a running average over the preceding double/half rate period.

Clive Robinson • February 10, 2020 4:09 AM

@ Wesley Parish,

With regards,

yet another TEMPEST-style attack to exfiltrate data from an air-gapped computer: leaking binary signals invisibly by slightly modulating the light coming off its monitor.

Not new at all.

The UK Cambridge labs developed an optical TEMPEST attack from the intensity of a computer display, that used the intensity reflection off of a wall or similar. They used a telescope and image intensifier and got enough bandwidth to reproduce near static screen contents from outside the building. This was around the same time they came up with the TEMPEST soft fonts to reduce the high frequency content in font characters to make such attacks more difficult for the attackers.

As for using the intensity of the light as a direct side channel I’ve talked about that for about the same length of time.

One of the people at the Cambridge labs came up with the idea of using a (45 degree rotated) square of coloured dots to send an authentication code. The dot could be red green blue etc to make a 2bit code for each dot. This would then be picked up by a handheld device with a camera in it.

As I was actively thinking about the authetication issue with bank transactions and “putting a human in the comms path” I’d thought about using some kind of “on screen code” which would not require a human to type in the equivalent of about 512bits.

As part of that thinking I’d been looking at how to attack a visable optical path with a covert side channel[1]. Well you can look it up but it’s been known since early experiments in colour television that the human eye is realy quite insensitive to “colour intensity” but reasonably ok with average or grey scale intensity.

Put simply if I put two red dots up on a computer screen a short distance appart on a light grey or white background you can change the intensity of the dots by more than enough for a camera to pick up but a human eye will not.

I pointed this out to the person at the Cambridge lab and after a little back and forth I think they realised that it was a viable attack method…

So all this latest person has done is re-hash a couple of old ideas and come up with a proof of concept that is noticably a lot worse than the original ideas and demonstrations…

And people wonder why I talk about “energy gapping” not “air gapping”… They obviously don’t realise I’ve been around the TEMPEST/EmSec block quite a few times a quater of a century or more ago, as an independent researcher even though I do mention it from time to time 😉

[1] For the same reason @Bruce makes comments about how it’s easy for someone to design an encryption algorithm they can not break… It’s the same with all new security ideas, if you can not see ways to break them you probably lack sufficient experience to be making them. The real trick is as @Bruce calls it “thinking hinky” that is the ability to look at a security system and have a feel for where the weaknesses and faults are and be able to demonstrate how they would be exploited.

Clive Robinson • February 10, 2020 7:51 AM

@ MarkH, Shetman Jay,

It’s surely a psychological phenomenon, that chronic losses become normalized.

And been around long enough for despots, tyranys and psychopaths not just to notice but make memorable comment on, as have saints.

Thus,

When Saint and sinner agree there has to be something fundemental at work.

Or so reason some,

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/life-autopilot/201003/why-is-the-death-one-million-statistic

In fact the Dr reasons it rather more than just a numbing to numbers, but is infact a reaction against the numbers, thus whilst one is tragic as few as ten cause active disregard if not hostility.

He puts this down to protecting against emotional overload.

I think he is looking at the modern effect of an underlying ancient cause. Thus my view is he should look a little deeper and a lot further back in mans evolution. That is I think from a logical perspective it is due to a form of primative self protection mechanism much like fight or flight. That is you instinctively measure your own capabilities or odds against the number or type of opponent, and engage or retreat appropriately.

That is if you come across one injured or sick person it’s generally in your interest to help them as this makes others more likely to help you when you are sick or injured.

However if you see five or ten injured or sick people it means that in all probability there is something that you can not immediately see/comprehend that caused it. Which you subconciously realise you probably can not defend against. Thus it’s in your own interest to be somewhere else as quickly as possible lest what ever it is or what follows on attacks and kills you.

Even today we know that a pile of dead, or dying things will quickly rot, and where there is rot there is usually disease that will harm or kill us, hence just about what ever culure you look at in the world has “death rituals” and simiar “waste rituals”.

Thus my fealing is it is these survival mechanisms kicking in at a sub concious level.

But there is always the problem of how to tell, that is what test can be devised to apply to sufficient people to rule in or rule out any given hypothesis…

Clive Robinson • February 10, 2020 6:51 PM

@ Anders,

The “DoJ spokes person” concerned has absolutly no credibility.

All this has achived is,

1, Wave a flag in an election year.

2, Let the insurance companies and Equifax off of the hook.

Why the latter because Barr had made it a “military act” which nearly all insurance policies have an exemption for. Likewise Equifax’s gross probably criminal negligence to secure data on individuals who’s consent it had never requested, by giving them the excuse of “what could we do against a super-power” or some such nonsense. We know Equifax had received notification of the problem with the library, Equifax’s development teams knew they used the library, but for some cost or other resource based reason Equifax failed to take “reasonable action”[1].

But also why the former, well it’s never going to get to court whilst that DoJ spokes person is in office or his boss, who he lick-spittles for.

Thus there is no way any evidence if there even is any will be tested legaly, so any old accusation can be made up in any way the chose. Much like we saw with the extradudicial killing of an accredited diplomat on a peace mission the US did not like (See Mike Pompeo’s repeated excuses said in his lick-spittle manner for his boss that were all demolished within minutes of his saying them…).

But one thing few will think about, the US is accusing people in china of committing an act in China. If they have evidence submisable in court how was it obtained? The answer should be obvious by exactly the sort of means they are making accusations about. So “kettle calling the pot black” with the certain knowledge that it was the US IC that started the electronic spying…

The point is most countries that can spy on other nations, even the “Holier than thou” USA spy on who ever they can. Most countries sensibly don’t say anything about it as they know just how stupid that’s going to be. The US however tries false arguments about what it does and does not do. Heck not only have the NSA been caught out spying on foreign commercial organisations, they’ve been caught out spying on dommestic commercial organisations. The excuse if any is ever given is that the commercial organisations are controled some how by a foreign state or some such inanity…

The simple fact is that China has repeatedly caught the US spying on it’s commercial organisations including leading edge technical companies and banks, because the Great Firewall of China works in both directions. The way it was done was by the NSA putting implants in US equipment that Chinese companies had purchased. The Chinese repeatedly asked the US to “cease and desist” such activities and it fell on “Exceptionalist ears” in the US State Dept, eventually China passed legislation banning US ICT equipment in certain commercial areas China regards as relevant to it’s National Security. Their country their legislation and established good reason to do so, note that China did not wave any big flags about it or openly tell other countries to do the same. Just a plain simple measured piece of legislation in response to an acknowledged and persistant threat.

However this made those with “Exceptionalist ears” and ageing mentality table thumping mad. Hence a whole load of unsupported or unfounded allegations against Chinese Companies followed, big flags were waved, other nations were told not to use the equipment and then blackmailed if they did not “jump to” on the US line.

So the question you have to ask is “Who’s throwing the toys out of the pram in a fit of peak & foot stamping”, thus is being laughed at by other first world nation leaders and politicians…

[1] In the case of criminal negligence, “reasonable action” is not based on “the average man riding on a Clapham Omnibus” –which is where the reasonableness test supposadly arose from– but that of a “domain specialist” at the required level. Thus if Equifax did not employ domain specialists at the required level or if they did, yet somehow knowingly prevented the domain specialist carrying out “reasonable actions” then lets just say Equifax’s defence in court would have made interesting reading. But what the DoJ spokesman has done with his little speech is handed Equifax a “Defence on a plate”.

Clive Robinson • February 10, 2020 7:24 PM

@ SpaceLifeForm,

A confined environment like a cruise ship is not ‘real world’. Of course, neither is hospital.

No but a ship in lockdown is very very like a hospital in many ways.

Worse/better depending on the way you look at it the cruise ship like a hospital has a “low risk group” and a “high risk group”. That is Drs/nurses/NAs ~= to ship staff. Hospital “at risk group” are elderly and with desieses of affluence and age ~= cruise ship passangers.

I realy hope that it does not turn into a death ship, I found out today that a friends parents in law are on that ship and I happen to know and like them, so fingers crossed.

Clive Robinson • February 11, 2020 7:29 AM

@ SpaceLifeForm,

I have learned from an informed source…

Is this the same one who tweeted Everythings OK we are ontop of it, or something similar?

So mid April huh.

Let me see that is say 90days away. So with the current doubling up rate being every 6 days that’s a 2^(90/6) increase. Or 32768 times a probable 50,000 cases, so just a mere 1,638,400,000 or aproxomately one quater of the worlds population infected by mid April and a two week time to die…

Or if you prefer look around your friends and family and count them and every fourth one will be gone by May day…

As that is a simple power growth, I guess we should be taking a look at things that would force the rise back down.

In theory the Chinese have a little over 100million in lockdown, which is bigger than a European country or about 1.4% of the worlds population I guess the death of 1.4% compared to 25% sounds a lot better. But in that 1.4% is much of China’s “Manufacture for Export” which if it was lost would make the Great Depression look almost trivial.

So we need to look outside of China for solutions that can be put into China. An approved anti-virus like any other new medication is a year away at least. Even though a computer generated antivirus has already been designed within two weeks after the virus genome was mapped, it’s in effect compleatly untried.

We could in theory get the required level of production of it up and running within two months if the green light is pushed… But that’s not going to happen in the West. But if things do get out of control in China, they might go straight to “human trials” without patient concent etc.

I’ve been told two things are already happening there,

1, Door to door temprature checking.

2, Draging people with tempratures away at the point of machine gun.

How much of that is true I don’t know, but it has been on Government Bio-Warfare actions lists since the begining of the cold war, if not longer.

It’s the balance between interests of self-v-society, which I’ve mentioned before.

If you look on it as a line between self and society the two end points are, As an individual your best bet is to self issolate with two or three months of supplies a sizable distance from others and ensure that distance in some way (hiding / point of a gun). From societies point of view anyone who shows symptoms straight to the crematorium.

One thing that is obvious is that there is not enough land or food for the self issolation to work at a national or global level, and probably not regional either.

One of the more dense European areas with a mix of city athrough suburban housing is Brussels however at something like five and a half thousand people per square km it’s population denisty is an average bench mark to population density in Europe.

But with access and services only about one third of the area is actually habitable. Which means each person gets about an eight by eight meter area (aprox 670Sqft).

However take Manila in the Philippines, it’s population density is fourty six thousand or over eight times as many in the same area. Thus in effect a place where people are always going to be within spitting distance of each other, certainly sneezing or coughing distance…

But if you look at the Wikipedia page,

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_population_density

Living in certain parts of France or New Jersey in the US puts you in the top fifty world wide and almost as bad with population densities in the twenty to twenty six thousand range…

Thus some tough decisions may have to be made “for the good of society”… Some of the most frightening words you can ever hear if you are not an “elite 1%er or politician”…

Clive Robinson • February 12, 2020 1:09 AM

@ Curious, ALL,

I thought I had already posted this already earlier today in this very thread.

Yes and No…

You did it in a different Squid thread, and I posted a long reply from memory to you there,

https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2020/01/friday_squid_bl_714.html#c6805660

Like you I have not read the WashPo article[1]. However there are snipits around on the Internet from people posting about it and the German ZTE TV station coverage.

Thus my reply to you was from memory of Crypto AG’s misdeeds and cover ups that became public over the years.

@ Bruce, ALL,

Now the secret ownership of Crypto AG is out, perhaps it’s time for people to collect the Crypto AG backdoored paperwork and equipment and analyse it in depth.

Because under the old proverb[2]

As a dog surely returneth to it’s vomit, a fool returneth to his folly

Various IC or LEO entities will try exactly the same thing again or a slight variations thereof, if they think we have –as the ICT Sec industry almost always does– “forgotten our history”[3].

I guess most know the saying about not learning from history… Well it’s fairly clear over a few short years that the ICT Sec industry has repeatedly “relived” it’s past, and as an industry we realy should “grow up” otherwise we will never be taken seriously, which means we will always fail.

[1] Like you I have not subscribed to WashPo and thus I get the “die in darkness” header at the top of a blank page rather than the article. As I’ve mentioned here before of that two line header the second line of which I guess is the WashPo’s “motto” does ironically amuse me 😉

[2] They don’t get much older 😉 For those that don’t know where it comes from it’s Proverbs 26:11.

[3] If you don’t believe me about the ICT Sec industry forgetting it’s history ask people about what is sometimes refered to as “Crypto Wars I” or look at the “BadBIOS” technical details that played out on this very blog, even though Lenovo had been caught using one of the underlying technical tricks to put persistant malware on their consumer grade laptops. As far as ICT history goes the “red cover” second edition of @Bruces book is all that most can remember. Even the older “Pink Shirt book” with it’s trademarked pose of Norton is now unknown by most, but is still a very usefull refrence book.

Clive Robinson • February 12, 2020 2:49 AM

@ SpaceLifeForm, MarkH,

At least 500 Wuhan medical staff infected with coronavirus (3 deceased)

From the UK news one of the nCoV victims (a man from Hove) went to see their Dr in Brighton… The so called “Third person / victim” on the list of coronavirus infected. Is also apparently a “Super Spreader”, the result of the visit atleast one of the people at the practice so far has become another “person” on the UK list.

Apparently two of the people on the UK list are Drs… So that might account for the twitchyness of the UK NHS and the advice to “self issolate and call not visit”. Oh and that twitchyness is not going to have been lessened by the “60% of global population” prediction by Prof Gabriel Leung, Chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University[1]…

You can read more at,

h ttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51447761

[1] Which makes my back of the envelop calculation of 25% by mid April the other day, based on the little we publically know[2], kind of look tame…

[2] A comment from a well known twitter source claimed it would all be over by April apparently due to warmth… So with an aproximate ten days for incubation that’s 90days. With a double up time of 6days that would be 2^(90/6) or 32768 times the current number of “at risk group”[3] already assumed of 50,000 people.

[3] I use the term “at risk group” because these are the percentage of the total number of people in China not just infected, but have also become symptomatic sufficiently serverly for them to have been hospitalised and at significant risk of dying, but also actually tested (we know others are probably dying from it but they are recorded as pneumonia patients not nCoV). Which as we know is a realy quite small fraction. Worse China has also changed their definition so that “Typhoid Mary” types or “infected by asymptomatic” people are not included in the numbers…

Clive Robinson • February 12, 2020 8:24 AM

@ Thoth,

Intel with its usual gifts that simply keeps giving endlessly

And it’s not even Valentine’s Day yet 😉

I guess there are so many Intel vulnerabilities these days that there are just not enough “High Days and Holidays” to try and hide behind…

That said does Intel realy care?

It’s a question others have been asking more of of late. Intel is loosing Market Share to AMD and other chip families. However at around 10% of market share AMD is the most prominent rival (as Intel pretends not to play in other market areas using different chip families where it got trounced).

It’s said that AMD has cash reserves between 1 and 1.5 billion USD but Intel has something like ten times that at 12billion USD. But whilst AMD’s is growing along with it’s business, Intel appear to be “flogging the family silver” and other assets and achieving the opposit of growth…

Thus the argument is that Intel will start a price war with AMD and put them out of buisness or atleast certain market segments (business laptops/servers) regard as their monopoly.

Personally I think Intel would be unwise to do so, they’ve lost legal fights with AMD in the past and AMD is more “agile”. Thus a very good chance that any victory Intel might get would be pyhric or marginal.

We don’t know who is going to have their feet under the Whitehouse desk this time next year, and Intel are well over due a look at by an anti-competition Judge or similar who might do to Intel what Federal Judge Harold H. Greene did to AT&T, in the Washington District court based on a DoJ antitrust suit based on section two of the Sherman Antitrust Act.

Even if it’s not done in the US Europe could have a similar effect…

But being broken up might be good for Intel, the Baby Bells flourished and IBM who just avoided the same fate by the skin of it’s teeth, did not exactly flourish. So you never know what might happen.

However some analysts think Intel price cutting against AMD would be good for consumers… Not realy, they would only marginally benifit for the short period whilst Intel was trying to drag AMD down. If Intel succeeded, you can guarentee that the prices would go up a lot and stay high whilst the market stagnated due to lack of investment in inovation, or Intel went after other markets.

If however Intel got broken up then yes that would be good for consumers not just in the short term but the long term as well.

Clive Robinson • February 12, 2020 11:33 AM

@ SpaceLifeForm,

So, WHO had their meeting. And, the best they could do was a new name?

You are not the only one to think this… “my wingman” who dares to have javascript, cookies, and such like enabled showed my some YouTube videos from a UK Dr, John Campbell, he posts about twice a day on nCoV or COVID-19 as WHO have collectively decided to call it.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qOOqSFZYwJk

He has several concerns,

Firstly is that China are now saying it’s actually airborn not dropplet (so masks are going to be ineffective). So it probably will become a pandemic.

China has split the figures into two groups “confirmed” and “suspected” which puts the number to around 70,000 cases in total.

China also publish a severe cases number which is around 7500 by now. Which means that in the “at risk” or “hospitalised” group between 11% and 17% are severe cases needing specialist support etc.

As for WHO he has noticed that they have failed to take any action over flights in or out of China or other developing disease hot spots. Which suggest WHO is taking “economic” considerations into account, potentially over medical ones…

He has also noted that Youtube are sensoring, that is those who mention what is now called CVID-19 are at the very least being “demonitized” whilst other Youtubers say that some channels have just “disappeared” entirely…

He has worked through an example jiven in the Lancet journal. And this tends to suggest,

Incubation period upto two weeks infectious period during incubation 50-80% of incubation period. When symptomatic and infectious upto four weeks.

So my math indicates quarantine should be three weeks “total issolation” five weeks or longer if not total issolation. Which is a heck of a lot longer than the current two weeks.

R0 is around 2.8 but a UK man is known to have infected atleast 8 even following the guide lines for self quarantine etc.

Clive Robinson • February 13, 2020 12:23 PM

@ mylit,

With regards,

For decades after Watergate, the White House treated the Justice Department with the softest of gloves, fearful that any appearance of political interference would resurrect the specter of Attorney General John Mitchell helping President Richard M. Nixon carry out a criminal conspiracy for political ends.

It could also be argued fairly easily that “Whilst the cat has been away…” and this is the squeaking of the fat mice who have had free run and basically been acting like psychopaths with no checks and balances for most of this century so far.

But to claim politicians have been “hands off” is not true by a long chalk, they have not just passed overly broad legislation on the basis of what the DoJ has asked for, Presidents of both stripes have pushed hard for tougher sentencing and significant cost savings. The result of which has been if you are innocent and don’t except the first plea offer they will keep piling the charges on, lie to “Grand Juries” and then manipulate you into bankruptcy thus have no real representation befor it gets to court. The prosecutors collect their promotion “browny points” not just for money and a better desk/office but eventual elected/political office. They also keep those political sponsors who own prisons on the gravey train, thus will get funding for their election campaigns…

So whilst I strongly disagree with what Billy “the walrus” has done. I have absolutly no sympathy what so ever for the prosecutors who’s cosy little arangments have had a tiny little knock back, some realy deserve the equivalent of what the 30year pile in Hercules’s 5th labour got.

Clive Robinson • February 15, 2020 7:16 PM

@ SpaceLifeForm,

They test positive, but have no symptoms.

Which is perhaps the scariest of the early findings.

You can be infectious but asymptomatic for atleast ten days.

Worse you can be infectious and if young, fit healthy, non smoker not living in a smog ridden environment then your your symptoms could be as little or less than just a dry cough.

Apart from babies to be and newly born where they have infectious mothers there is no evidence appearing in medical joirnals about children and young adults…

Nearly all the “Kit Confirmed” cases are in the first identified “at risk group” which is older adults with diabetes or other cronic condition, and is more male than female. What has not been said is if they are habitual smokers but it is likely there is a causal relationship as smoking reduces not just your respitory system, it also adversly effects the immune system.

People who know rather more than I do about virology and respitory diseases have indicated that the rumour going around about the Chinese or Assian people being genetically more suceptable is unconfirmed, and the polution figures in China and Assia in general could easily account for any differences. Apparently flu deaths in the US have a correlation to not just poverty effected diet but environmental polution, not just in the air but drinking water and localy grown produce.

There is some good news in that of the nine UK patients all but one have survived and have passed the two clear test kit tests. The other is apparently still “receiving medical care”. So in the UK the survival rate is 89%

However what on earth is going on in Japan with the Diamond Princess cruise ship is begining to begger belief… What excuse the Japanese authorities are going to give about their apparent desire to not do anything to prevent the infection spreading further on the ship we have yet to hear. But one thing is clear a close confinment area with shared ventalation is not an effective quarantine method.

Clive Robinson • February 16, 2020 5:00 PM

@ lurker,

Whilst I can not say anything about the flu vaccine (other than I can get it for free but don’t due to previous “adverse reactions”).

What I can say is that those who’s line of work is respritory virology indicate that any suceptability difference can be accounted for by “Environmental Polution” and the bad habit of smoking.

Some have pointed at US annual flu and cold statistics from healthcare that show correlations with not just smoking, polution in the environment but socioeconomic standing including diet and sq ft of home space per person…

Put simply anything that makes you stressed in any way weakens your immune system, and as viri are in effect “opportunist” any weakness they land on the exploit.

Clive Robinson • February 16, 2020 8:34 PM

@ SpaceLifeForm,

With regards the Diamond Princess,

Logical decision?

Suicidal decision would be my answer.

There are 3.7k “Souls on board” (SOBs) crew and passengers.

Thr Japanese have only tested about 1k of these and over a third of those test positive.

It beggers belief that the original asymptomatic infectious person who got off at Hong Kong infected all of those people.

Therefor infection must be occuring on the ship right now and has been since before that sole asymptomatic person got off.

Thus the people on that ship are not in quarantine they are “in a Petri-dish” awaiting their turn to be tested infectious or become infected and symptomatic enough to be tested. As most of those passangers are in the “at risk group” their probability of becoming infected if they stay is probably more than 66% (or more simply it will rise to the natural immunity cohort what ever size it might be).

We don’t know what the infecting route is but,

1, Crew.
2, Food.
3, Air-con.
4, Balcony to Balcony.
5, Excercise privileges.

Would be the list to draw up, but it’s increasingly looking like it’s “airborne”

But with regards,

Perhaps they decided, why go thru another 2 weeks of hell.

If they think they will avoid more quarantine, they’d better set their thinking straight, no matter how long they stay on that ship they are going into atleast another two weeks possibly even three when they get off. Unless of course they are already sick, in which case a month in a hospital if they survive OK or longer if the disease causes secondary injuries (and the furnace for those that don’t survive).

If they get off that ship alive and apparently uninfected they are going to go directly into quarantine when they get repatriated. Their home nation would have to be moronicaly stupid not to shove them in “individual issolation”…

The reasons,

1, Those disease kits are not reliable with a very low level of infection.

2, What is happening on the ship suggests the virus there may probably be “airborne”…

The problem with the kits, is all they realy do in laymans terms is multiply up the RNA in the sample taken and then the test is run on the multiplyed RNA using testing in a not to disimilar way a DNA sample is done at a crime lab.

The problem is a very low signal to noise ratio in the sample is still going to be a low signal to noise ratio no matter how many times you multiply it. The only way to avoid that is with a quite refined system that only multiplys the signal not the noise by some very selective process. But even then you still need a minimum amount of virus RNA for your sample to have any or sufficient in it for the test to work…

However as far as we are aware a single viable RNA virus is all it takes for you to “eventually” become infective… Which is why they do the test twice a few days appart, which is where the second problem arises. Testing that way would be fine if in the time between tests they could guarantee you don’t become infected and start the incubation cycle.

Whilst that is possible in a proper medical / issolation facility, the ship is obviously not even close. That is, the ship is, as far as logic is concerned, for those inside it, an “infection site” not a “quarantine site”. Unless naturally immune they are going to get infected. It’s a “Not if but when” senario…

Thus all staying on board means is you are significantly risking being infected for absolutly no gain what so ever… With now more than 10% of the passengers infected you would have thought the penny would have dropped that in old parlance they are on “a plauge ship” or more politly a “death ship”.

And yes knowing a couple of people on board I want them off, along with all the other passengers and crew, in real quarantine which that ship is most definitely not.

Clive Robinson • February 17, 2020 6:01 PM

@ JonKnowsNothing,

Millions would like to know exactly WHAT is this “Successful Treatment”?

Well it looks like the virus will not kill you, but the side effects can cause death if not treated.

Put overly simply, the virus causes inflammation which causes the release of fluid. The result of this is dependent on where in the body the fluid is released and how much of it.

Most of us know from insect bites/stings that the inflammation they cause gives rise to the fluid which distends the flesh causing swelling thus preasure on blood vessels and either white or red discolouring. But it reduces blood flow thus oxygen reaching cells at normal levels which can cause the cells to die (necrosis)

Well fluid from inflammation does not have to be in the flesh, it can also fill up the tiny air sacks (alveolus) in your lungs. With the result that the blood does not get oxygenated there. With sufficient fluid build up your lung efficiency drops to below a point where the insufficiently oxygenated blood going to organs has insufficient ogygen and they start to fail and can give rise to “total organ failure” and death.

There are four things that can be done,

1, Reduce the inflammation.
2, Increase oxygen in the lungs.
3, Reduce the organs need for oxygen.
4, Oxygenate the blood outside the body.

The first can be done with steroids, but these have the downside of impairing the immune system. What I’ve been trying to find out is if prophylactic doses of Non Steroid Anti Inflammatory Drugs (NSAIDs) such as aspirin will help. Also other drugs such as metformin that help reduce blood sugar (sugar in the blood impairs oxygination).

The second method is to raise the amount of oxygen in the lungs. Ordinary air has around 17% oxygen, but due to the respiration process the oxygen in the lungs is quite a bit lower than that. Oxygen therepy starts with those itchy nasal cannulas and about 2lt/min flow of oxygen. It rises through the use of masks to the partial preasure and full preasure Hyperbaric oxygen treatment. As long as the organs receive sufficient oxygen the patients immune system can carry on fighting the infection.

The third method is about what is sufficient oxygen for the organs. As a rough rule of thumb the lower the human body temprature is the less oxygen is required to maintain life. Thus inducing hypothermia is used in the likes of heart and lung surgery to reduce the bodies need for oxygen. I have absolutly no idea if it would help or not, but I have a feeling not, because you are slowing the metabolic rate which will also effect the immune system.

Which brings us onto the fourth method, which is external oxygination of the blood. Again done fairly often in heart surgury with a “heart and lung” machine.

That as far as I know covers the current available options.

Put simply the only treatment currently, successful or otherwise is “support the body whilst the immune system does it’s job”…

Which brings us to another issue which is the triage of resources. If this does turn into a pandemic, hope you catch it early or not at all. Because it will be first come first served for Intensive Therapy/care Unit places and later just hospital beds and later still care in the community…

The simple truth is, if this does become an epedemic –in a country even in the best of first world countries– that people who could quite easily survive with medical treatment at a given level will die because resources will not be available at that level…

Thus as an ITU/ICU bed becomes available, somebody has to make the hard choice of who best to give it to and in all probability it will be calculated on likelyhood of recovery, expected remaining life, expected quality of life and the dread “economic viability”. So young fit male employed with no socialy undesirable habits (smoking drinking etc) is likely to get to the head of the que (unless Stale White Male politico/civil servant is in the same hospital, if they are then they might just push a live one out to make way…).

Clive Robinson • February 24, 2020 8:27 AM

@ Apokrif,

Depriving a person from their right to travel (as may happen, for instance, to defendants on bail)

You are making a false assumption.

If somebody is in your jurisdiction then you have the right under due legal judgment to deprive them of their liberty in various measures.

Outside of your jurisdiction you have no right what so ever to deprive someone of their liberty which includes their freedom of movment.

It’s why we have the extradition process and international arrest warrants. You make a request to the authorities of the jurisdiction the accused is in. As part of that you have to supply sufficient evidence for the authorities in that jurisdiction to present to their legal system to take action.

If the evidence you present is treated as credible by the authorities in that jurisdiction they may or may not take action against the suspect, that is part of the rights of a sovereign nation.

Only that jurisdictions appointed law officers can actually detain the suspect and take them into custody. Anyone else faces the possability of being prosecuted for “unlawful detention” or even “kidnapping”.

You need to lookup why the likes of “rendition” etc are illegal under international law. The UN Rapporteur has produced several documents over the years, you can go and look them up.