Good Commentaries on the UK Terrorist Plots
"It's Hard to Prevent What's Hard to Imagine," more sarcasm from TheRegister, and an article from Slate. From the third:
More important, though, the London bombs failed because open, Western societies are more resilient than we sometimes think they are.
And this, from the Asia Times.
EDITED TO ADD (7/9): And this.
Posted on July 5, 2007 at 1:43 PM
"1. Read Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable; and"
What was that I had said?
Anonymous poster claims expertise on the Internet. Film at 11!
Meanwhile, the insurance industry makes how many billions of dollars a year by predicting risk and future loss based off of historical analysis?
But if you want to believe that the world does not operate in that fashion, that's your prerogative.
And somehow the insurance industry is an aberration that is repeatedly and consistently profitable. And it is based entirely upon statistics.
"2. All actions have consequences. The long odds of an act occurring doesn't mean that it has no consequences---whether or not the act actually occurs."
So an event has consequences ... I've never said otherwise.
And the even has consequences ... even if it never happens.
Yeah, right. Do you know how many events NEVER happen? No, you don't, do you? I'll help you out here.
There are an INFINITE number of events that NEVER happen. If an event's non-occurrence has consequences, then there are an INFINITE number of consequences affecting EVERY aspect of life.
Since an infinite number is, by definition, larger than a finite number, any thing is more impacted by the non-events than by the events.
I think your philosophy teacher is calling you. Something about failing that class.
Again, you can stick to your emotional decisions.
But don't try to claim that your emotional decisions have any basis in fact or reality. The statistics do not support you.
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