Schneier on Security

It worked in Malaysia (1960), Isreal (1948) and Ireland (1922) and arguably N. Ireland in the 90s - simply make it uneconomic, in money and casualties, for the big powerful country to continue opposing you.

Of course the same strategy hasn't worked in Afghanistan

In Israel I meant the 'spirited' opposition to the British colonial forces by Irgun which resulted in their political victory in 1948.

The same process happens: Terrorists attack, the powerful country decies it can beat them and pour money and troops into the conflict.

At some point somebody does the sums and wonders if the cost and casualties for 'defending' a worthless bit of sand/bog is worth it.

Then the rhetoric changes from "no negotiation with terrorists" to "an ongoing peace discourse". Then they pull out and it's congratulations and Nobel peace prizes all round.

Whether it's rebels in Malaysia, Irgun in Israel, ANC in South Africa, IRA in N. Ireland the odds do seem to be on the side of the local 'freedom fighters' in the long run.

The 9/11 hijackers weren't insurgents in the same sense - but if their aim was to shock and scare ordinary Americans and lure the American administration into a long and expensive (politically, militarily and financially) ill-defined war on terror.

Then I would say they have succeeded rather well.

They still seem to have been pretty effective at planting bombs in 1946.

I wasn't being specific about Irgun/ Hagana/ Stern/ People's front of Judea - just that acts which would be regarded as terrorism, were strongly correlated with the British leaving.

Of course this doesn't imply any causation. Perhaps, just like Afghanistan, they were simply waiting for a legitimate political authority to be ready to be take over - and the bad publicity at home from IED attacks on ordinary soldiers had no bearing.

@alan - there are lot of background reasons for the NI peace accord.

The improved economic situation - new industry making unionist dominated shipyards irrelevant. A new labour government with less political baggage. The EU making the difference between Ireland and Britain less relevant. An ageing IRA leadership wanting some of the comforts of political success.

If it was purely due to changes in the laws against catholics the problem would have been solved in 1829!

But the financial costs of the Baltic exchange bombing and attacks on the City of London brought a LOT of political pressure to bear in a way that a few dead civilians in a distant province didn't.