Schneier on Security

Clive Robinson • January 10, 2012 8:45 AM

@ Bruce,

Now you have some time on your hands before the "book signing" rounds....

You could have a look back at what posters to this blog have said in the way of the same predictions, and also where they have given their reasoning behind it, and the accuracy of their predictions.

I've made a fairly consistant point that as long as the US are fighting on the home soil of various countries, 9/11 style attacks would not be attempted. I've also predicted that there would be more Richard "hotfoot" Ried style attacks that would achieve little or no harm but plenty of publicity to keep money roling into the terrorist coffers. And it kind of turned out that way including the "laser printer bombs".

And I'm guessing that due to the Olympics being in London this year, we can expect to see some form of "attention grabbing" activities be it from the terrorist or from the authorities of which the latter I think will be an order or two of magnitude more likely.

What I'm awaiting on is what will happen now the US has pulled out of certain territorial areas. If nothing else had changed I would expect more terrorist activity on or near US territory. However contrary to the way it is presented in the news, various political interests are starting to engage with the political elements of various "terrorist" organisations and I suspect that this "recognition" unless badly mismanaged will provide a limiting effect in the short term.

This is important because "Arab Spring" has probably had more of an effect on the terrorist organisations than we give credit for. In the long term the current "arab terrorist" organisations days are effectivly numbered as the days of the opressive regimes are ending, and their only hope to survive with influence is to gain political representation before the time other interests get political power.