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March 29, 2020 4:16 AM

Clive Robinson on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@ Wael,

The other possibility is that China got a hold of either a vaccine or a form of medical treatment.

Whilst there is a possability they have found one or both, I don't think it is likely.

Why? Because it's not in their interest at many levels to keep such a thing secret. Not least being that as they have tried hard to turn themselves into the manufacturing center of the world, it would not be good business to kill off your customers or their economy on which your own economy and citizens well being depends.

But we can rule out a...

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March 29, 2020 3:36 AM

SSC Result 2020 on Remote Printing to an E-Mail Address:

I found your site from Google search. I think it very useful blog with outstanding content. I hope you continuing the unique article posting and I must say your keep it up! I really appreciate you.

March 29, 2020 3:22 AM

JonKnowsNothing on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

Tech Report about a "flexible electrical device capable of generating terahertz waves".

Scientists have crafted a tiny flexible electrical device capable of generating terahertz waves

Terahertz non-ionizing radiation lies in the electromagnetic spectrum where microwaves and infrared meet. These so-called T-waves, ranging from 0.3 to 3THz according to the ITU, have interesting properties: they can travel through clothing, wood, walls, and even human skin, for one thing.

École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL) in Switzerland, believe they’ve...

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March 29, 2020 3:07 AM

JonKnowsNothing on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@MarkH

re: There's actually a reason why governments pay good money to people with high educations, specialized training, and relevant experience to do intelligence analysis. Their job is often to extract "signals" (what's going on inside a target country) from masses of "noise." It's very easy to get this wrong!


Recruiting are you?

Good Pay 		no
High Education		maybe
Specialized Training 	sometimes
Relevant Experience 	no experience needed
Get it wrong		Boy Howdy

March 29, 2020 3:00 AM

soon there will be millions of Nadas (from They Live) on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

resist ID2020
resist Gates
resist MS
resist anyone/anything wanting to mark you with a tattoo, chip, etc.

Soon there will be millions of Nada (from They Live) types who will resist any mark from any creature who cares not for them. I will resist until my last breath, peacefully but in true justice.

March 29, 2020 2:48 AM

name.withheld.for.obvious.reasons on Emergency Surveillance During COVID-19 Crisis:

Let's go the other way, Wolfram has some interesting research about the tails of the genome related to SARS-CoV-2. Interesting results with the data they currently have, looks like something that could use the open source MERS/SARS-CoV-2 repository. Also the comparative analysis with SARS from two mammalian viral wells is also edifying.

Initial analysis, this is just with the data that they have, is interesting but not quite illustrative of the truth. But that could be answered with better data...

Fingerprints left on the weapon at the scene?

Try Wolfram...

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March 29, 2020 1:32 AM

Wael on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@Clive Robinson,

calamarata calamari Capri.

Little wonder calamari tastes different each time. Thought something's wrong with my taste buds (corona?) but turns out the buggers change their genetic code! (They no longer taste like chicken.)

Eventually the squid that survive are the ones that taste bad -- natural selection, eh?

March 29, 2020 1:10 AM

Wael on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@SpaceLifeForm,

Yes, it can get boring

So boring that I'm going to jump out of my skin!

It was funny when the dots escaped to rural areas on his monitor.

It seemed an unintentional "bug". Made him laugh too.

but if you can manage to go out only 1 day a week, that is better than 2 or 3 trips per week.

That's the thing: it's impossible. Doctors, nurses, police officers, military, etc... must go out more than once a week. Speaking of numbers and forecasts, take a look at this, and...

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March 29, 2020 12:38 AM

name.withheld.for.obvious.reasons on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

What, me callous?
No, I'm Presumptive!

What is utterly astonishing, and due to the recalcitrance of subject matter, how intellectuals, academics, professionals, learned, and the hobbyist treat the matter of life, the cost of living, not on a referential interdependent time scale but as a projection with but only an apogee expressed almost exclusively in numerical systems.

What do I mean? Simple, to address OUR (not MY) cost of living is exercised outside the scope of direct or anecdotal experiences. Incurring the cost of death, referentially, is...

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March 29, 2020 12:19 AM

SpaceLifeForm on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@ Wael

Good link.

It was funny when the dots escaped to rural areas on his monitor.

Except, it's not funny in real world, because that is
how the travel problem makes the pandemic spread.

People need to stop moving around. Avoid travel.
If you have to go out for supplies, plan ahead.
Don't go to one store one day, another store another day.
Plan it out so you can do it all on the same day.

Yes, it can get boring, but if you can manage to go out only 1 day a week, that is better than 2 or 3 trips per week.

March 28, 2020 11:59 PM

SpaceLifeForm on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@ Clive

Why is fairly easy to see when you accept that "the area under the curve" is proportionaly to the population size and that as the population size is finite at some point the available number of uninfected hosts must reach zero.

And people are talking about the second derivative going negative as a hopeful sign...

When the first derivative is still positive.

March 28, 2020 9:26 PM

MarkH on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

Re 21 million mobile phones,

I'm with Clive and lurker. By all means, let's add armchair intelligence analysis to armchair epidemiology!

There's actually a reason why governments pay good money to people with high educations, specialized training, and relevant experience to do intelligence analysis. Their job is often to extract "signals" (what's going on inside a target country) from masses of "noise." It's very easy to get this wrong!

Consider the data from the article: the reported tally of mobile accounts dropped by 1.3% over a three month period. Sounds...

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March 28, 2020 6:03 PM

Anders on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@La Abeja

Decimal based SI units are used long times with computers.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_interface_bit_rates

"All quoted figures are in metric decimal units. Note that these aren't the traditional binary prefixes for memory size. These decimal prefixes have long been established in data communications. This occurred before 1998 when IEC and other organizations introduced new binary prefixes and attempted to standardize their use across all computing applications."

March 28, 2020 6:02 PM

Clive Robinson on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@ BS PM BS,

Can you spare a bullet for me?

I think the answer is likely to be no, especially if they are a Californian resident...

As mentioned by a North Californian resident who used to be a cop,

    The state of California has decided to close shops it considers non essential so gun shops are closed but pot shops are open. Yes California thinks pot shops are an essential business.

But also that,

1, The price of guns had inflated dramatically.
2, People were standing in close formed ques.
3, Bullet supply...

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March 28, 2020 6:02 PM

gordo on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@ Jordan Brown,

"if we stop what we are doing, and we have a catastrophe, and we could have stopped that if we had continued, will you accept the blood on your hands?" . . . The question is only how much you're willing to spend, in money or person-hours or whatever commodity you choose, to prevent one death.

Which cat is my neighbour?
Marika, 7 November 2011

Derrida talked about his cat as a way of talking about the difference between animals and human beings. But it also came up in a discussion he had with John Milbank about the...

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March 28, 2020 6:01 PM

Bong-Smoking Primitive Monkey-Brained Spook on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@Clive Robinson, @Anders, all:

The reason being the energy required to dispose of such a number of bodies

Yea? I'd hide the bodies inside the Kola ditch, incinerate them and use the energy for blockchain mining. There! Problem solved.

I don't believe the 21 million figure. It's too low ;)

March 28, 2020 5:52 PM

La Abeja on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@Anders

Maybe to use here SI prefixes we all know from computers so well.
Mega. Giga. Tera. Peta.

Really. They cut hair on those units, too.

There's the long or binary scale based on powers of 1024, but the MSM in the tech field coöpted those units for a short or decimal scale of powers of 1000, and renamed the units of long scale to Mebi-, Gibi-, etc. or something like that, which wouldn't be so bad except they charge so much money per any of those units of memory, storage, processing speed, whatnot.

March 28, 2020 5:33 PM

Anders on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@ALL

As different countries use different scales billion
has no unique meaning and just causes confusion for
different readers.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_and_short_scales

Maybe to use here SI prefixes we all know from computers so well.
Mega. Giga. Tera. Peta.

March 28, 2020 5:28 PM

Clive Robinson on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@ Anders,

The closing of a few million Chinese phone accounts could be unexceptional.

I've no independent back ground numbers to check against. But if you remember the Chinese New Year was at the start of this epidemic and like the South Korean Kimchi making time it's when quite a few people have spare money in their pocket.

Thus the closing of an account might be balanced by the opening of an account or new contract with a nice new shiny phone. Further due to "state requirments" older non-smart phones and thus their accounts would have to go before March....

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March 28, 2020 5:17 PM

lurker on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@Anders

the-closing-of-21-million-cell-phone-accounts-in-china-may-suggest-a-high-ccp-virus-death-toll_
Apart from the bulk of the article being behind a paywall, 21 million deaths would be blindingly obvious no matter how strong the Chinese built their wall. What's far more likely is the high number of Chinese who use a pay-as-you-go account, and couldn't get to their local office to pay in cash as they usually did. Even those who pay via Wepay or the like may have had no income for a month to their account. Chinese telcos are as ruthless as those elsewhere in chopping non-payers.

March 28, 2020 5:12 PM

La Abeja on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@Clive Robinson

A ton of coal is a ton of call no matter if I decide it should be 50USD or a 1000USD,

If a pound avoirdupois is 7000 grains or 16 ounces avoirdupois, versus a troy pound of 12 troy ounces or 5760 of the same grains, then you still have to specify a whether you mean a short ton of 20 short hundredweight or 2000 pounds, or a long ton of 2240 pounds or twenty long hundredweight of 112 pounds or 8 stone each.

Or is it a metric ton of 1000kg, of which the standard is a platinum cylinder housed in a glass bell in a museum in Paris,...

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March 28, 2020 4:58 PM

Sancho_P on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@Jordan Brown

It’s not a question of trade-off (dollars per death) or how much “we” are “willing to spend”, the outcome is a collapse in economy anyway.
The (unknown) difference may be in depth, duration and recovery period.

March 28, 2020 4:54 PM

Sancho_P on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@JonKnowsNothing

Well, I’d be cautious to ask Mr. Dräger that question, for obvious reasons.
They can, it’s only a question of time.
Don’t care about air quality, there are people surviving the tar of more than 600.000 cigarettes.

March 28, 2020 4:53 PM

Wael on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@MarkH,

Please, Let’s Stop the Epidemic of Armchair Epidemiology

Please, let's not ;)

@BALR 0,0,

This interesting discussion of graphs:

I often watch the 3Blue1Brown channel. The link you referenced reminded me of it. Been a while since I watched it.

@Sed Contra,

(no need to put experts in quotes, it’s self-quoting)

Reminds me of @Ratio's saying: "A certified expert, I tell ya! *snort* ;-)"

March 28, 2020 4:51 PM

Sancho_P on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@Clive Robinson

”… it's a case of "Peter trying to begger Paul"”
Man, I’ve spilled my coffee all over the place, have you ever tried to clean an Apple Magic Keyboard? I enjoy your way to explain the world, but please, I’d need a warning beforehand! ;-)

Btw. I concur with the food shortage and production disaster. Too much knowledge and competence will be lost, regardless if we could “decide” a route or not.
A lot of businesses, from small (single) farmers to medium sized companies will lose their head, without any heir, knowledgeable or...

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March 28, 2020 4:40 PM

Bong-Smoking Primitive Monkey-Brained Spook on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@Clive Robinson:

That is the point as used for multiplication can also be the same point but as a full stop.

Indeed. Reader error.

@Jordan Brown:

Apologies, sir. My bad.

@David Rudling:

Just wait while I place this gun against my head and blow out my brain

Can you spare a bullet for me?

March 28, 2020 4:39 PM

name.withheld.for.obvious.reasons on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

Politicizing the U.S. Justice System,
Courts, Administration, Media, and the Intelligentsia

Contribution by Submitter (name.withheld.for.obvious.reasons)

What could be understood as the politicization of the U.S. courts and the
U.S. department of justice by a political party is likely flawed. It is the idealization, as in ideologically, wherein the rationale is formed for those that control the levers of power and literally maintain a death gripe on that power.

This ideological hegemony is based on one primary supposition, wealth....

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March 28, 2020 3:34 PM

Clive Robinson on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@ squilibrato straniero,

But inflation (regarding deflation as just inflation with the opposite sign) is real. It is just the change (up or down) of the relative value of things

No inflation/deflation is not real, it's the result of a "perception" that gives rise to the notion of "relative value" of things.

A ton of coal is a ton of call no matter if I decide it should be 50USD or a 1000USD, and somebody else decides it is worth handing over the "relative value" abstraction "money".

Money is ultimately a convenience for exchange of labour...

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March 28, 2020 3:26 PM

Anders on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@Clive @SpaceLifeForm @Wael @ALL

Regarding numbers...

mobile.twitter.com/DuaneABentley/status/1243371259716501505

www.theepochtimes.com/the-closing-of-21-million-cell-phone-accounts-in-china-may-suggest-a-high-ccp-virus-death-toll_3281291.html

March 28, 2020 3:22 PM

La Abeja on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@David Rudling

the older British long scale

That really is the only correct system of numeration for numbers >1,000,000.

1,000,0002 = 1 billion

1,000,0003 = 1 trillion

1,000,0004 = 1 quadrillion

MainStream Media commoners don't understand numbers higher than a thousand million, or somebody's got some real estate for sale and somebody else thinks they'll get for 1/1000 the price.

@squilibrato straniero

...

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March 28, 2020 2:22 PM

David Rudling on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@Jordan Brown
My sincere apologies for (wrongly) querying your math. Just wait while I place this gun against my head and blow out my brain which seems to have exceeded its "Best Before" date.

March 28, 2020 2:06 PM

squilibrato straniero on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@Jordan Brown @Clive Robinson @@ al

Re: wealth inflation etc

For what it’s worth ...

It’s right that wealth is real goods and not money. As the Greeks said, money is not wealth because money does not make money.

Money is just a convention, a notation scheme for recording the relative value of real things.

But inflation (regarding deflation as just inflation with the opposite sign) is real. It is just the change (up or down) of the relative value of things, and this change does happen. A proper grasp of real economics involves understanding these...

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March 28, 2020 2:01 PM

A Nonny Bunny on Internet Voting in Puerto Rico:

@Mr Verhart

It is a good thing that you do not have the ability to prove your vote.

Do you know how many people posted a selfie from the voting booth in the last elections here?
It's very easy to prove how you vote. I mean, you could maybe try to go to the effort of faking a voting booth and a create a fake copy of the ballot-paper, but you'll have to fake the GPS-location that your phone adds to the photo as well. And of course they could just be dropping you off at the voting booth and waiting for the confirmation photo. So ...

March 28, 2020 1:54 PM

Wael on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@Sed Contra,

Of course they use EMACS

Yes, of course! https://xkcd.com/378/

scientists have discovered that squid massively edit their own genetic instructions

Wait until scientists discover that squid were part of our evolution. They designed us: we came out of squid genetic stock, edited ("emacs and vi" ) by some geek squid.

New cult born :)

March 28, 2020 1:41 PM

janu on Blockchain and Trust:

Bruc Bond - Bruc Bond endeavor to lead the financial sector with sustainability, customizable product offering, and open communication. At Bruc Bond we aim to make 21st century banking straightforward, simple, and transparent. learn arabic language online

March 28, 2020 1:28 PM

Bong-Smoking Primitive Monkey-Brained Spook on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@Jordan Brown:

100,000 is 105. 1012 ÷ 105 = 107 = 10 million. I did double check my math before I wrote.

Ummm... Triple-check, after you wrote!

March 28, 2020 1:25 PM

janu on Blockchain and Trust:

Bruc Bond - Bruc Bond endeavor to lead the financial sector with sustainability, customizable product offering, and open communication. At Bruc Bond we aim to make 21st century banking straightforward, simple, and transparent. learn arabic language online

March 28, 2020 1:23 PM

janu on Blockchain and Trust:

Bruc Bond - Bruc Bond endeavor to lead the financial sector with sustainability, customizable product offering, and open communication. At Bruc Bond we aim to make 21st century banking straightforward, simple, and transparent. how to learn arabic language

March 28, 2020 1:00 PM

janu on Blockchain and Trust:

Eyal Nachum - Eyal Nachum is a fintech guru and a director at Bruc Bond. Eyal is the architect of the software that SMEs use to do cross-border payments. how to learn arabic fast

March 28, 2020 12:20 PM

Ross Snider on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

Re: The talk about armchair epidemiology.

I think this problem is manifest because the politics are deeply intertwined with the science (e.g. climate change).

Science must inherently be interpreted and applied as an aspect of creating a political position. So who gets to do that and who has access to the science and the scientists?

Should the public engage directly with the science absent politics, with politicians' interpretations of the science, with scientist's own political interpretations, or directly with politics absent science? Which is those is legitimate,...

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March 28, 2020 12:09 PM

Jordan Brown on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@David Rudling: A trillion in the US scale is a million million, 1012. A thousand million is a billion. 100,000 is 105. 1012 ÷ 105 = 107 = 10 million. I did double check my math before I wrote.

@Clive and others: I don't know what "wealth" truly means. When I try to truly understand a modern economy my head starts spinning; it's either a giant shell game or a giant Ponzi scheme. But my retirement savings have dropped considerably, and that's money I won't be spending on food, cars, televisions, et cetera. Does a...

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March 28, 2020 11:27 AM

Sed Contra on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@MarkH

Re: talking armchair heads

It’s pretty clear that many of the experts (no need to put experts in quotes, it’s self-quoting) themselves are in this category. Plus que ça change etc. paintings over centuries of well-robed and capped physicians with pretentious air of authority, surrounding the desperate prostrated patient. Egregiissimi doctores discordant. If you could just pay me my fee ...

March 28, 2020 10:52 AM

JonKnowsNothing on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

As there is certainly going to be a push on AI/ML in more medical and critical areas, it seems that some serious skepticism is in order. Not that too many reading this blog wouldn't already have that "hinky" sensation about such claims.

A tech report about the validity of claims that "AI algorithms are just as good as, or even better, than human doctors at diagnosing diseases from medical images." indicates these are very poorly designed studies and the results skewed.

A group of researchers, led by Imperial College London, studied 91 peer-reviewed papers that...

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March 28, 2020 10:34 AM

JonKnowsNothing on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@All

I found the answer to my question (above) about competence of folks like Elon, Dyson, GM, et al to make respirators: That answer is NO.

A detailed and sobering interview (in English):

Drägerwerk is a world leader in the production of ventilators.

DER SPIEGEL: Car manufacturers and other firms have announced that they can manufacture ventilator components. Is that purely a PR move or is it actually helpful?

Dräger: There is little point in adapting unused production capacity to manufacture respiratory aids. I spoke...

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March 28, 2020 6:51 AM

Clive Robinson on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@ Josh,

there's no better example of how our fragile society relies on paying debt obligations to the extent that a temporary pause in cash flow can collapse the mothership.

How avout the recent examole of a pause in food supply?

What is going to happen when crops that need to be planted now are not planted, and if as is expected we will be in another lockdown come harvest time there is nobody to do the harvesting? and transportation to processe it? nothing to put the processed results into? A no method to send it from country to country, or from...

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March 28, 2020 6:41 AM

65535 on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@ MarkH, Clive Robinson, Jordan Brown and others

[It's]...the phenomenon of Very Smart People -- who happen to be pig-ignorant about epidemiology -- showing great confidence that their own analyse''... -MarkH

I don't disagree.

There is truth to that statement. When TV media and a political season meet facts get bent and twisted for a variety of political and economic reasons.

'When Medium took down Ginn’s post (it’s since been posted here), the Wall Street Journal’s editorial board framed its removal as an attempt to “stamp out” free debate and “require...

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March 28, 2020 5:35 AM

David Rudling on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@all
Sorry to be pedantic but I always liked programming in Ada because it helped avoid overflow mistakes. 100,000 lives or $1trillion dollars equates to $10,000 dollars per person using the short scale US measure of a trillion as a thousand million. Only on the older British long scale (not used for dollars) does it work out to 10 million per head.
Fake news anybody?

March 28, 2020 5:14 AM

Lawrence on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@ Josh @Wesley Parish

@Josh wrote

"That's probably because we did our carpet bombings over there, far and out of sight."

I'm with Wesley. In the wider context of 20thC Asian history there are multiple examples of how human life was not valued. Or, as is put in modern times, differently valued.

If you live in the Pacific region, as I do, you would have had exposure to how WWII was conducted in Asia and the different values pursued by the Japanese. And then the Chinese afterwards. "Our" carpet bombing was not an acceptable behaviour (nor overly...

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March 28, 2020 3:32 AM

Josh on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@Clive Robinson wrote,

"Unless you've been to a place with hyper inflation where a bottle of water goes up in price by 10% or more between the morning and the afternoon you can be forgiven for thinking that the fiscal price you pay has something to do with the real cost in resources of making it."

BTW, you and many others are wrongfuly concluding that we are experiencing inflation when we are facing a massive deflationary spiral starting with the collapse of OPEC/Russian negotiation fiasco. The deflationary spiral had driven up the cost of greenback which is why the fed...

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March 28, 2020 3:24 AM

Josh on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@Wesley Pariah wrote,

"During the "Cold War" a lot was said about how the West valued human life, whereas the East did nothing of the sort."

That's probably because we did our carpet bombings over there, far and out of sight.

March 28, 2020 3:19 AM

Josh on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@Clive Robinson wrote,

"Thus the real question you should be asking is,"

one crisis leads to another. as the Chinese saying goes, evil doesn't walk alone...

to this exact question, this nova coronavirus is akin to a weapon of mass destruction in the likes of 2008 subprime crisis. most people wrongly conclude this current economic crisis being worse than 2008, while both are of equivalent scale. in the 2008 crisis, banks derivatized collateral debt into several magnitudes of non-linear fashion which magnified its significance. there is no question the previous...

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March 28, 2020 2:28 AM

Wesley Parish on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@usual suspects

Re: costs and values

To put it into perspective, in Christchurch, NZ, in the early 2000s, we had a "property boom" in which the cost of property skyrockets, and rents make polevaulters look timid ... to wit, the cost of housing went up dramatically.

Now in 2010 followed by 2011 we had some earthquakes in Christchurch. And in one of those, a minor earthquake technically, a mere aftershock, one of the houses overlooking a cliff was dissected by the earthquake, which chucked a good part of the cliff edge over the cliff. Those houses in that particular...

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March 28, 2020 2:04 AM

JonKnowsNothing on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@Clive @All

In the USA and some other places, respirators are being ordered from companies that do not do medical manufacturing. One might think that medical manufacturing requires a bit of specialty knowledge and special clean room assembly lines.

Q: Does GM, Elon, Dyson and others have any ability to do this?

They are getting orders and funds, and federal demands to comply (??) to make them. Even if they are given the blueprints and circuit board layouts, I'm not so sure they really can do this and have the respirators actually WAI (Work As Intended). ...

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March 28, 2020 1:42 AM

JonKnowsNothing on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@Jordan Brown @Clive

re:

Now we're just haggling over the price.

In an addendum to Clive's excellent dissection of your question (which is not a question) you may also wish to reference the many excellent analysis about versions along the lines of:

"if we stop what we are doing, and we have a catastrophe, and we could have stopped that if we had continued, will you accept the blood on your hands?"

Directly answering you question about "haggling over the price", you have no worries there, it's already been done for...

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March 27, 2020 11:46 PM

Dave on Story of Gus Weiss:

I've been hearing this Soviet pipeline explosion story that no-one can even prove happened let alone that it was caused by sabotage for years. Given the sometimes hit-and-miss nature of Soviet-era construction and industrial safety - look at Mayak for example - @Sergey Babkin's version sounds far more likely.

March 27, 2020 11:29 PM

MrC on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

Aha! I figured it out! Clive is really Thomas Piketty in disguise!

Anywho, it's misleading to characterize the situation as "a choice between losing 100,000 people and losing a trillion dollars of wealth." If we were to, as you suggest, let the virus rage wild and kill who it will, the rapid loss of that many workers/consumers would inflict economic damage likely as bad as what our efforts to contain the virus will inflict. In other words, we're going to suffer massive economic damage either way. That's unavoidable at this point. (I think Clive also drove at this point a bit, but...

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March 27, 2020 10:15 PM

Clive Robinson on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@ Jordan Brown,

If we have a choice between losing 100,000 people and losing a trillion dollars of wealth, what's the right answer?

As it's the wrong question the answer realy does not matter.

The reason the question is wrong is you have an assumption in there which is,

    losing a trillion dollars of wealth

Fiscal wealth is not real wealth, these days it's just ones and zeros in a computer or stuff and nonsense like "quantitative easing".

Unless you've been to a place with hyper inflation where a bottle of water goes up in...

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March 27, 2020 9:18 PM

Jordan Brown on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

It's not exactly armchair epidemiology, but what I think is a critical question is the trade-off. If we have a choice between losing 100,000 people and losing a trillion dollars of wealth, what's the right answer? That's ten million dollars per person. 100K deaths is probably a low estimate for the worst case, but a trillion dollars is probably also a low estimate.

How much is too much to spend? Would you rather have a 1% chance of dying, or a 90% chance of coming out of the incident penniless and unemployed?

Nobody likes to compare dollars with lives, but it's clear...

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March 27, 2020 8:59 PM

Clive Robinson on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

@ MarkH,

Naturally, such criticism cannot apply to commenters here (including myself!), because we're Even Smarter People.

Maybe ;-) but that's not the reason, it's because we are older, thus more likely to be loosers in this particular game, it's made our pencils a little sharper. But I guess the real reason, although we have political out look differences, most of us have been around the block enough times to be a lot more cynical about politicians.

That said epidemiologists did not start the data modeling game, it was mathmaticians paid by the...

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March 27, 2020 7:52 PM

Clive Robinson on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Orders Down in Italy:

@ SpaceLifeForm, Wael, ALL,

But some Wuhan residents who had tested positive earlier and then recovered from the disease are testing positive for the virus a second time.

As I understood it this was explained a while afterwards as being due to a mutation. That whilst making the virus more infectious made it less harmfull hence the S and L strains.

Though I've not seen much about it since.

March 27, 2020 7:33 PM

lurker on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Orders Down in Italy:

from the npr article,

Could that second positive test mean a second round of infection?
Could the negative/positive results be indicative of the margin of error in the test procedure? Paraphrasing @Clive, crunch the numbers at your peril. One thing is certain, we will all die. The probability that we will die of this particular pestilence increases with age, bmi, being male, cardio-pulmonary history. Putting an absolute value on that probability is as @MarkH says, a retrospective exercise.

March 27, 2020 7:09 PM

gordo on Emergency Surveillance During COVID-19 Crisis:

@ Steve, Clive Robinson,

There's nothing more permanent than a temporary measure.

As quick and dirty as these data integrations will be, a key to their long term value lies in identifying those data sets whose integration should be maintained and those that should be sunset. The capability to ramp up surveillance from higher level baseline triggers should guide when and where to drill down into the more privacy-invasive feedback loops.

March 27, 2020 6:54 PM

MarkH on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Orders Down in Italy:

I think that Clive's reasoning above does a good job of explaining why our "crunching the numbers" will do very little to improve understanding of the reality of this pandemic.

Even the best available data has enormous margins of uncertainty.

Counts of deaths are sure to be the most reliable and up-to-date statistics ... but when an already morbid person dies not long after contracting an infection, assigning the cause of death is far from an exact science even without the pressures of a horrible health crisis.

Case counts are not only missing a great many...

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March 27, 2020 6:33 PM

MarkH on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

An article which might amuse some readers here:

Please, Let’s Stop the Epidemic of Armchair Epidemiology

It's about the phenomenon of Very Smart People -- who happen to be pig-ignorant about epidemiology -- showing great confidence that their own analyses and forecasts of the present pandemic are better than those of people who've devoted their careers studying and monitoring infectious disease transmission, and epidemics in particular.

Naturally, such criticism cannot apply...

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March 27, 2020 5:52 PM

SpaceLifeForm on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Orders Down in Italy:

@ Wael, Clive, Anders

China numbers, False Negatives, Asymptomatic Spread, Wishful Thinking

hxxps://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/822407626/mystery-in-wuhan-recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-negative-then-positive

...

But some Wuhan residents who had tested positive earlier and then recovered from the disease are testing positive for the virus a second time. Based on data from several quarantine facilities in the city, which house patients for further observation after their discharge from hospitals, about 5%-10% of patients pronounced...

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March 27, 2020 5:49 PM

dbCooper on Story of Gus Weiss:

Fascinating article indeed. A nice read.

March 27, 2020 5:39 PM

Scott Forbes on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Can Edit Their Own Genome:

Fitbit becomes Flubit

Let’s step into the future and imagine the next pandemic when everyone is wearing a "Flubit". The technology is in the market today, and it can predict sickness in individuals (Search “Fitbit flu”).

Now combine that with location tracking of you, and everyone else. Perhaps you have been in the vicinity of other humans who are getting sick? Maybe it’s time to quarantine based on real statistical data, even if you aren’t sick yet.

This should be an easy task for our data scientists to correlate-- certainly easier than figuring out what movie...

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March 27, 2020 5:24 PM

Genia on Homemade TEMPEST Receiver:

Hi there,

I am trying to set up a working TEMPEST attack as a demo for my employer, but I have been having issues getting this to work. I made sure I have 32-bit java (though I am using a 64-bit Windows 10 machine). I installed mingw and msys, though I don’t think I’ll need them, as I already have a working jar file.

After launching the jar file, when I try to load the ExtIO dll, I get:

“The ExtIO dll is not compatible with the current machine or does not exist. Please check the filename is correct and the file is a valid ExtIO and try again.”

Any advice...

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March 27, 2020 5:03 PM

Clive Robinson on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Orders Down in Italy:

@ ALL,

How trust worthy are the numbers?

The short answer is "Not", the slightly longer answer is "Not even in South Korea".

The reason as the Chinese have said for most of the time is they are "based on testing and later expert diagnosis".

What this realy means is that we are at best seeing the tip of the iceberg in infections. That is those serious enough to be tested with a test kit or diagnosed by an expert of which there are few (but numbers are rising rapidly first in China and now in Europe).

In the UK the chief medical officer has said that...

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March 27, 2020 4:52 PM

Sergey Babkin on Story of Gus Weiss:

I haven't read the article yet, but there was a massive natural gas pipeline explosion, in the early Summer of 1988, or possibly 1987. But not in Siberia, it was in the Urals, on the section of Trans-Siberian railroad between Chelyabinsk and Ufa (although from America, I guess, the Urals don't look much different from Siberia, and the railroad name adds to the confusion). The leaked gas collected in a depression of relief and got ignited by sparks from two passenger trains that were passing in the opposite directions. If I remember right, it was ruled to be caused by a welding defect on...

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March 27, 2020 4:50 PM

Wael on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Orders Down in Italy:

@Anders, @SpaceLifeForm, @Clive Robinson, all,

Let's differentiate between inaccuracy and deliberate misrepresentation.

How trusted are US official numbers?

I trust the numbers are not misrepresented in the the US. I don't believe the low double digits reports from China.

Today they passed 100 000 margin :(

I believe if we were to test the whole population of the US today, the numbers will be in the tens of millions. The virus has been out since December last year, assuming there were no coverups for a few months....

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March 27, 2020 2:14 PM

Clive Robinson on Emergency Surveillance During COVID-19 Crisis:

@ gordo,

To understand the NHS and the state it's in you have to understand Nurses and to a lesser extent Doctors and the very pi55 poor nature of the UK Government this century and before. There is a reason why there are thousands of ex nurses and doctors in the same way there are thousands of ex ambulance medics, firemen, policemen and other "paid from the central purse" workers including the armed forces.

Put simply the Government of what ever stripe has wanted to "sell of the family silver" to have a party for their friends, now that has gone they are getting rid of...

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March 27, 2020 11:50 AM

SpaceLifeForm on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Orders Down in Italy:

@ MarkH, Clive, Anders

The leaked number for deaths about 2 months ago
exceed that of the current official count of cases.

The official numbers from China are worthless.

March 27, 2020 10:41 AM

gordo on Emergency Surveillance During COVID-19 Crisis:

The usual suspects . . .

https://www.economist.com/britain/2020/03/26/palantir-a-data-firm-loved-by-spooks-teams-up-with-britains-health-service

Palantir is working to pull NHS data into one of its two data platforms, Gotham and Foundry. There it can be cleaned and merged with other datasets, enhancing the ability of NHS administrators and the government to run analyses quickly. Palantir is working under the auspices of NHSX, the...

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March 27, 2020 9:40 AM

Sed Contra on Friday Squid Blogging: Squid Orders Down in Italy:

@Wael

Re: videos patents etc

There seem to be various sites saying the video misinterprets the patent, that the patent was for vaccines against corona types, some of these rebuttals claiming the Institut Pasteur made a statement to this effect.

As you suggest, no need to get conspiracy minded about the virus, if there is a level 4 lab with people working on viruses to get vaccines, presumably mistakes could happen, and it’s just the kind of place you don’t want them, being level 4.

Sidebar photo of Bruce Schneier by Joe MacInnis.