More Research on the Effectiveness of Terrorist Profiling
The use of profiling by ethnicity or nationality to trigger secondary security screening is a controversial social and political issue. Overlooked is the question of whether such actuarial methods are in fact mathematically justified, even under the most idealized assumptions of completely accurate prior probabilities, and secondary screenings concentrated on the highest-probablity individuals. We show here that strong profiling (defined as screening at least in proportion to prior probability) is no more efficient than uniform random sampling of the entire population, because resources are wasted on the repeated screening of higher probability, but innocent, individuals. A mathematically optimal strategy would be ”square-root biased sampling,” the geometric mean between strong profiling and uniform sampling, with secondary screenings distributed broadly, although not uniformly, over the population. Square-root biased sampling is a general idea that can be applied whenever a ”bell-ringer” event must be found by sampling with replacement, but can be recognized (either with certainty, or with some probability) when seen.
Imperfect Citizen • July 22, 2010 7:13 AM
Great article perhaps it speaks more to the targeting process than the actual on the ground process. I love this quote, can someone send it to the folks on the eastern seaboard?
“because resources are wasted on the repeated screening of higher probability, but innocent, individuals”
Sadly, there’s more damage than just resources here. For example, when these jobs on innocent people go on and on, like mine has for 3 years, the confidence of the observers is eroded in the agency ordering the observation. The damage to the observed person is awful, your entire sense of community is destroyed. Who do you go to for help when the FBI or NSA puts a terror label on you? Even when you are innocent people think there must be some reason the feds are watching you.
The article didn’t factor in fraud, and that contractors are doing the screening and when an innocent person is found to be innocent, even after 3 years of watching that means the gravy train is over for the local jd getting Patriot Act funds. Even the FBI and NSA aren’t looking at the possibility that federal contractors are not self policing.
In my case, when observers in larger cities are discussing me within my hearing “Is that her? Yes she’s waiting for her dad at the doctor’s” (I’m the only she in the waiting room) “I don’t know why we are still watching her, I think the hometown is the problem” That was in 9/08. Almost 2 years ago. Then he spoke of what was necessary to keep me “activated on the system” The system that makes me an “event”.
Apparently local jds have no supervision on Patriot Act observation jobs if other towns I travel to keep complaining. When I was in Kentucky the observers said “why did they pull us out of church for this? Can’t they see they are just a family?” Ironically, what the feds won’t confirm or deny is spoken of by observers. They aren’t cops, they aren’t trained in surveillance. They are people told that I am a terrorist.
The next question was “what are we going to do with her in church?” The what is form perimeters. That’s actually damaging to the observers, they have to watch me, change their seats, take photos, follow me in and out. Why? They are calling me an Arab terrorist. People point and say “does she look like a terrorist to you?”
I don’t speak the lingo, I’m not an Arab, I’m not a Muslim. Yet observers ask me to tell them about the Muslim religion, what country I’m really from, do I think we deserved the events of 9/11, etc. Its so frustrating. I called the FBI, the NSA, the DOJ IG. There’s no process to get help even after 3 count em 3 years of observation. I have a kid, he gets shunned and bullied because mom wears a terror label. They don’t stop watching me, my family, my friends, its awful.
Another point here is that while this is interesting, nobody factored in that we are in hard times. Observer jobs go the way of the 9-1-1 fellowship, friends and family of law enforcement, fire fighters, etc. Nobody factored in ignoring exculpatory information. With the Patriot Act there is no accounting, there is no scrutiny of the evidence. Nobody at the FBI or the NSA apparently asked why a woman under observation for over a year suddenly gets Arabic messages on her answering machine? Nobody asks how a woman who hangs around with nuns needs to be frisked by a man who then followed me on jobs after the frisking.
There is a lot of corruption where there is no transparency and no accountability. Normally its the FBI’s job to catch it. Apparently the contractors in this game are above the law. What makes it worse is that the contractors maintain/store the data used to keep innocent people on the job. Every day I hope that the DOJ IG will get permission to investigate Patriot Act Abuses. Nobody does. The agencies paying for these jobs don’t even care enough about the integrity of the data to investigate cases.