Schneier on Security

Clive Robinson • April 26, 2009 7:28 AM

@ Bruce,

As this is not the normal “fishy blog” but one that is more “fishy” security wise.

A sugestion for a re-visit to a number of related security subjects you have covered before.

The A/H1N1 virus (Mexican swine flu) looks like it is going to be a bit of a problem. Unlike H5N1 (Asian bird flu) it apears to be easily transmisable from human to human.

Further like the 1918-19 pandemic flu this new variaty of swine flu appears to effect the economicaly productive segment of the population very significantly. The young and the old appear to get little more than mild symptoms.

Although none of those infected in the US have died (due to prompt medical intervenion) the mortality rate in Mexico is rising.

Contary to early reports by Dr Chan of CDC it does not apear to be limited to the southern states as NY apears to have atleast one case.

Further although it has been stated there are no direct links between those infected in the US and Mexico it has been pointed out that “illegal imagration” may be the transmission vector.

As regards medical intervention as it is a new variant there are no vacinations possible nor likly to be for between six months and two years (depending on who you listen to). However CDC have issolated a “seed virus” so it is a question of manufacturing ramp up etc.

The US and UK stock piled anti-virals appear to be effective IF and ONLY IF administered in the very early stages (ie befor pneumonia symptoms apear). And importantly will not prevent re-infection.

Also Steroids appear to be benificial as well, althought it is to early to tell if Statins will provide some defence against H1N1.

One area that is going to come up for discussion is the use of anti-virals.

Mexico only has enough for a single course of treatment for one million people. The UK and US have stockpiles rumourd to be sufficient for every person in the respective countries (although I have my doubts on this).

This gives rise to two questions,

The first of which is the obvious humanitarian one of the US and UK passing over some of their respective stockpiles to Mexico.

The second and less obvious one is to do with effectivness. Anti-virals only work in an infected person in the early stages of infection and they do not in any way prevent re-infection at a later date.

With no immediate prospect of a vaccine anti-virals are at best a “stop gap” measure, and importantly will not stop and may possibly aid the spread and mutation of the virus.

Which as I noted means that prevention falls back on strengthaning peoples resistance via things like steroids, statins and other non steroid anti inflamatories (such as asprin).

Unfortunatly the efficacy and safety of using these medications is a bit of an open question at present.

For instance all these medication groups are known to have members that have longterm use side effects in a significant proportion of the population.

For instance Simverstatin can cause muscle wasting in something like 20% of those who take it. Asprin is known to be contra indicated with many longterm conditions such as gout etc. And has been well publisised by those with asthma steroids have so many side effects that many sufferes would rather risk death than live with the missery of taking them.

Clive Robinson • April 26, 2009 10:40 PM

Sorry folks,

The last sentance of my post above was firstly not ment to be the last, and secondly typed whilst my young son decided that he needed “dadies attention” in a somewhat direct manner by jumping on my semi recumberant post Sunday lunch stomach (my wounds will I hope one day heal and his hearing might also recover 😉

What I was going on to say was the mix of security / scare / immigration / nationalism / pseudo science in the swine flu story looks set to make it a “big news” in the comming few days.

This of course will be “egged on” by stories about Japan and other countries digging out the equipment they last used during SARS at Airports arrivals gates (where it is probably to late as those otherwise healthy people on the aircraft with the sick person will have been infected and through the gate…).

It should also tie in nicely with other stories about “False twitter rumors” etc.

Possibly ending up in calls for “increased Government regulation of the Internet” because somebody will say “but think of the children”…

Sadly however what will be missed in it all is the real story about how we actually deal in a rational and measured way to what will in all likley hood one day will be a real threat to our sociatal fabric, without “sounding like the boy who cried wolf”.