Friday Squid Blogging: China Launches Six New Squid Jigging Vessels

From Pingtan Marine Enterprise:

The 6 large-scale squid jigging vessels are normally operating vessels that returned to China earlier this year from the waters of Southwest Atlantic Ocean for maintenance and repair. These vessels left the port of Mawei on December 17, 2020 and are sailing to the fishing grounds in the international waters of the Southeast Pacific Ocean for operation.

I wonder if the company will include this blog post in its PR roundup.

As usual, you can also use this squid post to talk about the security stories in the news that I haven’t covered.

Read my blog posting guidelines here.

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Posted on January 15, 2021 at 4:03 PM • 206 Comments

Comments

RIP Terry A. Davis • January 15, 2021 5:26 PM

T e r r y * D a v i s (the movie):

His body was recovered following a brutal attack by a clandestine intelligence agency involving a train. Refitted with cyborg like electronics, his new organs grant him a new life and a new friendship. No longer pounding the streets in homelessness, Terry Davis now works with the underground vigilante group AGT (Anti Glow Team). Through it all Terry erects an electronic temple, but can he control the power he has programmed into existence?

Rated MA for mature (brief nudity, alcohol, drugs, extreme violence and language)

andyf • January 15, 2021 5:36 PM

Appears that the stolen Pfizer/BioNTech data has now found its way onto the dark corners of the net but in a modified form. The anti-vax morons are going to have a lot of fun along with causing damage to public health.

My instinct is to point the finger at Russia but I guess there are plenty of others who would benefit from reputational damage to Pfizer/BioNTech and their vaccine either for ideological or financial reasons.

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2021/01/hackers-alter-stolen-regulatory-data-to-sow-mistrust-in-covid-19-vaccine/

Why can’t people just be nice and pull together in these times?

Edward • January 15, 2021 6:31 PM

I just re-read “The Eternal Value of Privacy” by Bruce Schneier. Those of us who think about these things are well aware of the dangers of pervasive surveillance, but I want to follow up on something that Bruce says at the end of the essay, which is that

Too many wrongly characterize the debate as “security versus privacy.” … Liberty requires security without intrusion, security plus privacy.

Let’s take the idea of security plus privacy to its logical conclusion and pose the question:

Can we have widespread pervasive surveillance and privacy?.

I think maybe we can, through a combined technological and legal framework.

Here is the basic idea. Everyone is under surveillance at all times. All surveillance data is encrypted and cannot be decrypted without a warrant. Warrants are issued by panels of citizen jurors. Panels are randomly selected from a jury pool consisting of all citizens. Jurors are not co-located, do not confer with one another directly, and their identities are kept anonymous. Jurors can, in some circumstances, preview the requested data before deciding on the warrant.

There are, of course, a large number of details to consider. The technical issues are not trivial, but we have at our disposal a wealth of proven algorithms for encryption, authentication, secure voting, block chains (ha ha just kidding), etc.

There will be many objections. For example, “what about crimes in progress? We don’t have time for warrants!” That is a valid objection, but one that can be addressed: Police (or other agency) can declare an emergency and be given immediate access (by TBD agency) to the encrypted data. The important thing in this case is a) to make clear what constitutes an emergency and b) to strictly enforce penalties for abuse.

There will be many more objections, including the fact that perhaps the worst erosion of our privacy is coming from the corporate sector.

Perhaps, given the current state of the world, this is all totally unrealistic, and the answer to my question is “No, we cannot have both pervasive surveillance and privacy”, but I do believe that we need to break away from the false dichotomy mentioned above and start working together towards something better.

Regards,
Edward

Clive Robinson • January 15, 2021 7:37 PM

@ Edward,

Can we have widespread pervasive surveillance and privacy?.

The simple answer is NO.

The longer answer is, the lesson of this century so far is that those in power can not be trusted, they lie, they cheat, they steal, and will break any law or oversight placed upon them. No ifs, no buts, no maybes, they will do what ever it takes to extend their power.

Further they will continue to push for more invasion of privacy because they see that as power that belongs to them by right of might and some self deception to say that they are exceptional in some way you are not.

Thus the simple fact is if you put a piece of technology in place they will abuse it some how and they will not stop even when the technology is compleatly debased they will push for more technology that they will abuse, and so on.

The only way to stop your privacy being invaded is to stop the technology being available in any way shape or form to them in the first place.

As I’ve explained in the past there are limits that they can not break defined by the laws of physics and probability.

If they gain access to your mobile phone there are quite hard limits on what they can do.

For instance no matter what you might get told you can always establish a secure channel across any other communications channel.

So if you type in secure ciphertext into your phone, all they can get is the cipher text, not the plaintext or message.

Thus you have two problems to solve,

1, Secure transfer of a master shared secret.
2, The design and construction of a secure encryption device.

Of the two the second problem is going to be hardest for most.

There was an interesting encryption system being developed in GO but the developer stopped about half a decaded ago. Called “Pond” it’s still worth reading about what it did and was going to do. You can find a refrence to Pond along with a whole bunch of other more upto date stuff here,

https://ianix.com/pub/salsa20-deployment.html

Edward • January 15, 2021 8:06 PM

@Clive Robinson
Thanks for your reply, and for the link.
I agree with most of what you say, but I still think that checks and balances along the lines I described could be made to work, and that the biggest problems are not going to be technical but social-political.
Regards,
Edward

Privacy and security • January 15, 2021 9:54 PM

@ Edward
I agree with you – an effort should be made. Some imperfect solutions will be better than do-nothing.

JonKnowsNothing • January 16, 2021 12:13 AM

@Edward @Clive @Privacy and security

re: surveillance and privacy

First Fault: . Everyone is under surveillance at all times.

And if you miss 1 person? How about newborns? How about people in places with no internet, no electricity, no smartphones and no computers?

So… Not Everyone. Maybe some, a few, the unlucky or the selected.

Second Fault: All surveillance data is encrypted and cannot be decrypted without a warrant.

As soon as you have a backdoor “aka decrypt with a warrant”, your system fails. You cannot keep the decryption key secret.

Gosh, we cannot even keep what we had for dinner secret or what silly-goose things you have been watching or buying. So the secret is a “public secret” only unknown to many, some,most and maybe all.

Fault Three: panels of citizen jurors

We have this in the USA it’s called the Grand Jury. In other countries it’s called a General Warrant.

Not very popular and not public, but officially secret and if you are the target you are not allowed representation (aka lawyer). There is only 1 verdict permitted. If you do not bring in the verdict so designated they set up round 2 and round 3 and round 4 until they get the verdict desired.

Kangaroo courts, show trials, extra judicial processes, FISA Courts, Gitmo Proceeding (even more specialized).

RealFakeNews • January 16, 2021 1:01 AM

andyf:

Isn’t it more likely that the data was liberated and UNMODIFIED, and they are saying the hackers modified it in order to discredit it and bury the truth?

The BMJ (British Medical Journal) are already on record as not liking how the trials went, and now this leak happens exposing truth, and suddenly hackers are anti-vaxxers?

Naw. Can’t have it both ways.

Why bother hacking at all if you’re simply going to fake it afterwards? Makes no sense.

SpaceLifeForm • January 16, 2021 4:26 AM

When I saw this, my first thought was Matthew Green. Sure enough.

htt ps://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2021/01/how-law-enforcement-gets-around-your-smartphones-encryption/

“It just really shocked me, because I came into this project thinking that these phones are really protecting user data well,” says Johns Hopkins cryptographer Matthew Green, who oversaw the research. “Now I’ve come out of the project thinking almost nothing is protected as much as it could be. So why do we need a backdoor for law enforcement when the protections that these phones actually offer are so bad?”

kurt • January 16, 2021 4:36 AM

Why element.io is never mentioned when talking about alternative messengers ?
Is it that bad ?

Winter • January 16, 2021 5:16 AM

@FakeNews
“Why bother hacking at all if you’re simply going to fake it afterwards? Makes no sense.”

Industrial espionage plus destabilization.

There are entities that want to win the race by kneecapping the competition.

We have seen that quite clearly since 2016. Many agents have been busy stoking dissent and conflict online by encouraging both sides to fight.

Looking at your comments, you might even work for such an employer.

Winter • January 16, 2021 5:32 AM

@All
Mathew Green is quoted as saying:
“Now I’ve come out of the project thinking almost nothing is protected as much as it could be.”

That is my general experience while visiting developing countries. While you are there you see why they are developing countries.

Things are badly organized because that suits some people, or others simply refuse to follow the rules*. Others are corrupt, and people want them to be corrupt because they want to be able to buy favors.

The same happens in the developed world, but on a different scale.

Privacy&Security is such an area. Law enforcement and TLAs do not want to protect our safety, and they want to prevent us from doing it ourselves. They want to make their job easier and blame the victims for the consequences. And the surveillance is good because it keeps these pesky [minority,poor,unions,opposition, immigrants] in their place

*Doctors appointments in hospitals are illustrating. Waiting rooms in the developing countries are full at 9 am with people scheduled for after noon because they want to sneak in front of the line. Others have to comply or someone else will sneak in front of them.

Clive Robinson • January 16, 2021 6:22 AM

@ SpaceLifeForm, ALL,

Re Matthew Green’s

“Now I’ve come out of the project thinking almost nothing is protected as much as it could be. So why do we need a backdoor for law enforcement when the protections that these phones actually offer are so bad?”

I’m not in the least surprised.

Because the problem they are concerned about is hierarchical key generation.

Encryption is both slow and power hungry. Two things you realy do not want on what is basically just a battery powered user interface, little different in usage to most “thin client computers”.

Therefore what is slow and power hungery will get put under the spotlight for being optimised out.

So if functionality needs a key that takes ages to generate, you do it the once and cache the result…

Great for response time and battery life but potentially a disaster for security.

But security at what level?

Put simply whilst there is a lot of talk about security it’s much like that of AES security. When daya is at rest and the power is off the AES is secure to quite a high level. However in usage if optomized for speed AES is very insecure because of all the time and power based side channels that open up alowing leakage not just of user data but key material as well.

Untill users understand the basic idea that “data in use” is unprotected in oh so many ways, then they will not understand even basic security.

But also they need to understand that increased security has a cost, be it in slower response times or shorter battery life or both. Along with other side effects. Such as slow response causes multiple button pressing by users. With a back button you would end up several pages back or at an error message. But if there are issues in the interface then the greater the probability the user button jabbing will excercise it.

Such problems are hard if not impossible to code around, so keeping response times as fast as possible is a high priority for developers.

So you can guess which gets priority and which looses out. Yup security is the looser and in as phones only get grabbed by LEO’s etc maybe 1 in several million uses it’s hard to argue the developers are not correct.

This is just another in a very long list of reasons as to why “consumer ICT” is not, and is very likely never going to be, secure to a level a very very few people are ever going to need.

In theory you could take “stock Android” and make it very much more secure. But would you consider the result “usable”?

metaschima • January 16, 2021 7:47 AM

@ andyf
Yes, it is sad. I’m glad to see that Biden at least is investing like $10 billion in cybersecurity which I’m hoping will help with the cybersecurity crisis occuring. As we’ve seen hackers have been able to cripple hospital systems. With the pandemic getting worse most healthcare systems including USA and Japan are on the brink of collapse. As you can imagine this is extremely bad news because if the healthcare system collapses this pandemic may wipe out most of the human race. It may not do this overnight or in a year, but if it doubles every 3 months which it has in the last 3 months, it very well could be world-ending in a few years. Anyway, I did get the Pfizer vaccine and I’m still alive and glad I got it. If things deteriorate, good luck finding a vaccine to take when people are dropping like flies around you and willing to kill to get a dose of vaccine. I’m also glad that Biden has a plan for improved vaccine distribution. I know politicians rarely keep their word but at least I can feel hopeful for the future when it’s likely to be very dark.

Clive Robinson • January 16, 2021 10:17 AM

@ Anonymous,

“State Department offers no data to back latest assertions”

Nor do I suspect can it.

It’s no secret that one of the Chinese unstated reasons for not letting The WHO scientists in is that the man in charge of The WHO currently is keen to follow “the American line” due to funding issues.

If The WHO had acted entirely independently as their scientists tend to do we would not have lost that six weeks to three months this time last year, and there would not be the millions dead, crippled and severly sick, nor the Western Worlds economy not just blown out of the water but totally shreded as well with our grand childrens grand chilldren still paying off the debt created by huge sums of wealth handed over to a very very few privileged few who were so short sighted the did not realise on wuater of fiscal pain back then would stop them fealy what will probably be eight to fifteen quaters of hell, that they passed on to others like a hot potato. The blaim for this pandemic lies surely at the feet of UK and US political leaders who consistantly fail to do what is required when it’s required and for as long as it’s required. When you have exponential rise being belatedly reactive and timid and frightened by what is not important is a very sure recipe for disaster, and so it’s proved to be.

As for repeated US Executive implication of SARS-CoV-2 being a Chinese made bio-weapon, I’ve yet to see any scientist with credible authority or experience in virology with corona viruses get even close to backing that.

Did the Chinese Government initially screw up their response yes, but remember that for what was their one holidayvof the year of great importance, they actually did more than the US has done for thanksgiving or Xmass and more than the UK and continental Europe did for Xmass.

The Chinese at least had the excuse that they did not realy know what was going on initially but did act remarkably quickly and effectively when they did. The West in the Northern Hemisphere has neither excuse we knew it was a danger of major importance, and we have not acted as we know we should be doing.

You only have to look to the South China Seas area and the antipides for good examples of what we need to be doing and what you have to do when you get it wrong (Australia).

The political idiocy driven by short term thinking of the self important who think themselves exceptional is killing, maiming and hurting hundreds of thousands of people on a daily basis.

Thus I give you a hint, the US figures are getting worse the vaccination programe is very nearly a failure compared to what it could be due to political infighting and you have a disgraced executive looking to try to hide behind any diversion it can even if it has to manufacture them without any evidence.

The reason the executive is disgraced is despite all the rhetoric the leader does notceven have feet of clay, hes effectively a pointless figurehead when what the US people need above all else is strong leadership not frightened by the short termists who are so self interested and believe themselves so exceptional they can not grasp the fact that the viruses care not a jot for what they think, they are not exceptional nor are they particularly intelligent thus their actions harm them almost as much as it hurts everyone else.

The thing is this virus is way more subtal than could be thought up in a lab. The fact that you are significantly infectious before you become dibilitated means that one of the normal rules of thumb of virus evolution has been avoided.

Normally a virulant virus mutates to being less virulant as the hosts are most infectious towards the middle or later stages of the disease. That is the hosts die or are isolated before they pass the virus on, so the less virulant strains get an evolutionary advantage.

Not so SARS-CoV-2 you are most infectious before you even feel ill that is when you are asymptomatic or presymptomatic. Thus the virus can mutate to become a whole lot more virulent without in any way decreasing it’s infectivness. In fact it could become more infectious and more virulant and the normal evelutionary responses would favour it more than other mutations.

But there is another issue it can mutate to also become more robust as well thus further enhancing it’s evolutionary advantage.

But we are running in a race that few are apparently aware of. We think we can vaccinate our way out of this pandemic. That’s only true if we can vaccinate enough people quickly enough to render SARS-CoV-2 hostless so it dies out. If however we vaccinate as slowly as we currently are we run the very real risk that the virus will mutate beyond what our current vaccines can protect against… In fact we have the added risk of killing more people. If you activate the immune system with a vaccine, and the person gets a secondary viral disease we would expect the outcome of the second infection to be worse than it otherwise might, hence the advice to get your flu jab early…

I guess we are going to have to wait to see what is going to happen, but with the US getting more than 1/4 of a million cases a day the healthcare system will almost certainly fail. Which means the case fatality rate with responsive healthcare down around 1:1000 will change to 1:20 or worse.

Ignorant US redneck • January 16, 2021 10:38 AM

I have been selected to come up with an encryption scheme for our corporate data. Note this is not for any sort of state secret

Our current process involves a daily backup which is sent to an unencrypted external storage device (large SSD) and then placed in our safe. The safe is covered by surveillance cameras and the combination is known to 5 employees. Once weekly, a full backup is copied too another SSD and delivered by courier to an off-site storage (bank vault).

The business segment our data system is not connected to the web, internet, or anything external.

Our directors are concerned that our courier may ‘misplace’ the data drive long enough for the contents to be copied. That seems a little farfetched to me, but I shall follow orders. None of the above procedures need to be changed, but I need encryption for the device in transit.

I have investigated several encryption schemes and decided that an open source (FOSS) product named CipherShed offers everything we need (plus a lot of bells and whistles that we’ll likely never use).

My question is directed at you pros. In your estimation, is CipherShed, used as I described, adequate?

Thanks.

Edward • January 16, 2021 11:07 AM

@ JonKnowsNothing
Thank you very much for your comments.

First Fault: Not everyone can be surveilled.
Maybe, maybe not. What are the limitations? You mentioned some challanges, but are they really insurmountable? There are zillions of types of sensors (cameras: body-cams, street cams, drones, satellite telescopes, multi-spectral; microphones: shotgun mikes, dish arrays, etc.), and modes of communication.

Second Fault: … backdoor …
Please don’t assume that there would be a backdoor. There are protocols that require K out of N keys for decryption. How would those keys be generated, distributed? Presumably there would be public/private keys as well as session keys. If there are master keys, in what vaults are they stored? How do biometrics fit in to the whole scheme? There is a huge amount of technical detail that needs to be filled in by subject matter experts.

Fault Three: FISA court.
The point of my suggested Citizen Panels would be to avoid rubber-stamp warrants, conflicts of interest, etc.
If the panels are randomly selected from a pool consisting of all citizens, doesn’t that mitigate the issues that you allude to?

@ All
Designing secure protocols is notoriously difficult, so I am not proposing that we come up with an extremely complex legal/technical framework here on squid blog.
Instead what I am hoping is that people here might have suggestions for where and how these ideas can be further developed. Links to organizations (academic, public interest groups, etc.), forums or literature would all be appreciated.

Regards,
Edward

JonKnowsNothing • January 16, 2021 12:27 PM

@Ignorant US redneck

re:Backups in General

Not too long ago, there was some exchanges on backups and backup systems. You might want to search the archives for them.

re: Our directors are concerned that our courier may ‘misplace’ the data drive long enough for the contents to be copied. That seems a little farfetched to me

In ancient times, when people went to the cinema, going to the movie house or movie palace was a big event. Huge production movies were shown.

Films arrived by courier in canisters and the projectionist would rack up the films in the proper order. Some cinemas has multiple projectors and there was a “coded flash” to the projectionist to start rolling the next reel. The reels were then put back into their secured canisters and after the appropriate uses exchanged for the next blockbuster.

Even during this time, people had their own movie projectors, some were 8mm and some 16mm, there were others. 16mm reels could be checked out a libraries for home use. A 16mm projector was not cheap but not too expensive and often used for care homes as well as private homes. There were businesses that provided 16mm feature films for rent and sale.

There was also a busy black market for hot ticket blockbuster movies.

It was a Public Secret (aka no secret), that the projectionists would set out the canisters and leave them unattended after the midnight showing was over. The canisters would take-a-walk for a short period and then return.

It didn’t take long for them to clone the entire film and return it without anyone noticing. Of course the movie studios noticed the films were being pirated and would occasionally shut down a movie house or fire the projectionist if they got too greedy.

In summation:

Your bosses are correct. If whatever you have is so important that you have security cameras on the vault, you might want to consider theft or physical loss of the canisters.

Additionally, you might want to check the contents of the canisters, a fair few get sent away empty.

Faustus • January 16, 2021 12:29 PM

@edward

It startles me when people are so intent on a police state.

We have far too many laws. Most law breaking, especially victimless crimes, is never punished, for very good reason: the laws are oppressive.

Almost everybody breaks some law. Your pervasive surveillance would be used to selectively prosecute political enemies and would quickly prevent any positive change.

Where would we be today if laws supporting slavery, draconian penalties for pot smoking and oppression of LGBTQ+ had actually had been effectively prosecuted? If protests could be effectively shut down or prosecuted?

The homogenous mediocrity you prescribe would be the death of progress. Read Bruce’s Liars and Outliers. Defectors drive progress towards better systems.

If there is no obvious evidence of a crime that is probably a good reason to ignore it.

There is still a lot of privacy for those who seek it. If you are not a sheep contently crapping next to yourself in the feedlot of conformity. If you do not see any privacy: THINK! You are simply in the wrong place.

P.S. I love blockchain deniers. I bought bitcoin at 90 despite the flack. The upside was obvious versus a minimal downside. (Note: the numbers are different now. Analyze your risks before buying in or not.)

I am aghast at the servile quality of the new human. But all these people defining themselves as losers certainly leaves more of the pie for the mentally agile. Thanks! The dystopia you are creating is more fun and profitable to play than any video game!

Faustus • January 16, 2021 12:33 PM

@ignorant

You are way behind the curve. If your data is important contract a real expert. Real experts are too busy to post here continually.

Edward • January 16, 2021 12:43 PM

@ Faustus

Yes, yes, yes. I totally agree, it sounds pretty distopian. But here’s the thing: we are already living in a state of almost constant surveillance, so can we implement a system of checks and balances? Can the concentrated power be dispersed? And what would that look like?

By the way, I like block-chains, but they have become such a fad that it has become something of a joke to suggest that any problem that comes up can be solved with block-chains.

Thank you for your comments.
Regards,
Edward

Clive Robinson • January 16, 2021 1:19 PM

@ Ignorant US redneck,

I have been selected to come up with an encryption scheme for our corporate data.

You sound like you got the fifth straw of four, which is always the shortest.

Based on what you’ve said it sounds like it’s an “audit check box requirment” rather than a genuine need.

Which makes things a bit easier as you are probably “moving a problem” rather than “solving a problem”.

The problem in this case is the backup being copied, whilst not being physically protected to the degree some think it should.

That is the intent is to protect it for a short period of time whilst in transit.

You talk of using SSD’s as the storage medium. Is that because they get used as “drives” rather than “tapes”?

If you are simply usind the SSD as a tape then it relaxes your requirments with regards encryption because you do not of necessity need “random access” at the byte or block level but as whole files or even whole partitions or drive images.

The problem with encryption is unless you get your Key Managment (KeyMan) right, then the backups become usless. So getting the KeyMan right is actually more important than getting the encryption algorithm or mode right. This obviously needs a secure backup system of it’s own even if you do go for fancy modes such as a masyer secret, and key derivation in a way that gives you perfect forward secrecy.

As for CipherShed, I’ve not used it, it appears to be one of many projects that forked off of TrueCrypt.

However the web site and the GitHub site tend to suggest it’s not been touched in a half decade… And was at an early release stage.

Thus I would advise finding something else which is currently being atleast maintained.

Faustus • January 16, 2021 1:34 PM

@edward

Thank you for your civil response to my barbed comments!

I seriously challenge you to consider whether surveillance is as pervasive as you think. I avoid most of it most of the time. I poison the data I send in. Things like masks offer a lot of opportunities.

Unless there is a reason for the state to track you just living atypically and using technology atypically defeats the effectiveness of algorithms that are designed for the average. Yes. Stay off social media as much as possible.

Use a mix of noscript, ad nauseum, ad block, tor, tails, i2p, torrents, cash, cryptocurrency, remote locations, false identities, anonymity, pseudoanonymity, vpns, encryption, proxies, self-education, willingness to be less popular, contrarianism, etc for privacy. Don’t attract state attention. Don’t be an influencer. Avoid fame. Don’t use the cloud. Disconnect devices as much as possible. No internet cameras. Avoid people with cameras unless it draws attention. Be the grey man. Don’t use software or human assistants. Use minimal apps. Segregate machines. Break habits. etc etc

Money is for the taking. Make careful bets against common opinion. Conformity is average income for its adherents and wealth for everyone else. Never be a victim.

Ismar • January 16, 2021 4:06 PM

@Clive
“ But we are running in a race that few are apparently aware of. We think we can vaccinate our way out of this pandemic. That’s only true if we can vaccinate enough people quickly enough to render SARS-CoV-2 hostless so it dies out. If however we vaccinate as slowly as we currently are we run the very real risk that the virus will mutate beyond what our current vaccines can protect against… In fact we have the added risk of killing more people. If you activate the immune system with a vaccine, and the person gets a secondary viral disease we would expect the outcome of the second infection to be worse than it otherwise might, hence the advice to get your flu jab early…”

My only hope is that whatever the mutation happens to be the unwritten law of reciprocals between how infections the virus is and how deadly remains the same, as I don’t think that the vaccination programs will be fast enough

Clive Robinson • January 16, 2021 4:42 PM

@ JonKnowsNothing, SpaceLifeForm, Winter, ALL,

UK ReCOVery trial shows that convalescent plasma treatment of hospitalised COVID patients has no effect on mortality.

The large study group of just under 10,500 patient cohort split randonly into two groups had an identical mortality rate. Likewise on sub groups.

This failure of antibodies from the convalescent plasma is most probably due to the unusual nature of the SARS-CoV-2 disease progression.

Put simply you are either not, or insufficiently, symptomatic in the infection stage –when the antibodies might be of help– to be in hospital. It is only in the inflammation stage that you become sufficiently sick to seek and require medical assistance.

This unusual disease progression is actually becoming quite concerning. In more normal viral infection progression the infectious and inflammation phases are coincident or inflammation occurs as the host becomes infectious. This means that normally infected persons can be issolated or treated before they are sufficiently infectious to spread the disease. Which in eveloutionary terms would favour less virulent mutations, thus over time there are less deaths, injuries etc with time.

With SARS-CoV-2 the patient has infected just about all the people they are going to infect before they succumb to the virulence. Which means evolutionary effects will not tend to less virulance on mutations.

At the moment there are now three similar but distinct 501 mutations that are now going around and they are it appears atleast half as infectious again as earlier strains. We only have a broad indicator on virulence on two of them and no data as to if any are more robust or not.

Evidence suggests that the so called Kent (UK) varient was in existance in Italy, and it’s been suggested came back with holiday makers towards the end of summer and was picked up in Kent in Sept 2020. Thus the question of did it arise in Italy or was brought there by others from some other part of Europe or the wider area (some have suggested it could have come from America as there are no evidence of inward transmission with those so far found to have that variety in America). To be honest I doubt we will ever know for sure, not that it realy matters once you have community spread of it. Thus words like “wildfire” are being used to describe it’s spread.

One point to note from the study the hospitalised or case fatality rate was 1/5 people. Other studies indicate that 1/5 those in hospital with COVID aquired it there. Thus attending a hospital has somethong like a 4% risk of death currently. This is before the UK hospitals have become saturated which is starting to happen which if other figures are still correct suggests the mortality rate will rise six to seven fold in those who do not get hospital care as simple as basic oxygen therapy. As I’m sure many reading this will be aware, oxygen is now a very scarce commodity as are oxygen concentrators/generators.

We’ve had a year to prepare for this but it appears certainly in the first world in the Northern Hemisphere people have just been sitting on their hands rather than be proactive. As the old sayibg has it “The rot starts at the top”…

Winter • January 16, 2021 4:46 PM

@Clive about COVID response:
“The political idiocy driven by short term thinking of the self important who think themselves exceptional is killing, maiming and hurting hundreds of thousands of people on a daily basis.”

I think you underestimate politicians. What we saw, and see, is the standard response of populism. And it is the response their voters want and even demand.

All the populists in the world denied COVID was a problem. Many still deny it is today.

Populism does not solve problems, it points out scapegoats. Nothing else is done because the followers do not want anything done. It is pretty clear, particularly in the US, that the followers of Trump really do not care how many people die or get sick. That is just other people’s problems.

And we should not be surprised. These are the same people that deny Climate change and a host of other problems.

Populists and their voters do not care about the body count nor the future. Their response to the pandemic is a rational one: If many die, a bigger slice of the pie more will be left for me. If we do something about it, the pie will be smaller while my portion of it will remain the same. So I will be better off if we do nothing.
(and obviously, I am special, I will not die)

Etienne • January 16, 2021 5:11 PM

CipherShed hasn’t been updated in 7 years in some parts, and 3 years in others.

Under no circumstances should you use anything that old. It will be fine with Windows NT or 95 though.

Watch these videos, see what he recommends, and if you have any funds maybe you can hire him.

h–ps://www.youtube.com/user/TheTecknowledge/videos

His backup videos will educate you very fast.

SpaceLifeForm • January 16, 2021 6:10 PM

@ anonymous, Clive, MarkH, JonKnowsNothing

OSINT shows virus in play in Wuhan during northern hemisphere summer of 2019.

When bats would be active.

Then winter arrived. Then it became obvious.

Goat • January 16, 2021 7:17 PM

@ignorant us rendeck, I personally use veracrypt to encrypt drives for backup, but depending on your circumstances as @Clive said do your research just don’t ise cipherseed it’s from windows 95 era

Also use the term free[as in freedom] software avoid using the term open source it’s crushing the idea of software freedom.

Ignorant US redneck • January 16, 2021 10:18 PM

@JonKnowsNothing
LOL. Very nice. Yes, the data has some value to us and could, possibly, be used by competitors. Stocks and bonds are sometimes valued more by rumor than by underlying assets. Thank you much.

@Clive
Yes. The shorter the straw the stinkier the smell. The SSD will act as an encrypted drive. Thanks for your suggestions.

@Ismar
Thanks for the suggestion but Management will not, repeat not, trust anything where they can’t pull the power plug.

@Etoenne
Thanks for that link. Sounds like my homework needs more attention.

@Goat
Thank you. And, I’ll remember to say ‘free software’.

SpaceLifeForm • January 16, 2021 11:05 PM

@ Goat

I would prefer using FLOSS, when it actually is FLOSS.

Otherwise, it may just be a cheap toothpick.

SpaceLifeForm • January 16, 2021 11:06 PM

@ name.withheld.for.obvious.reasons

Did you notice that DoJ is now using the ‘C’ word?

sidd • January 16, 2021 11:20 PM

for those who remember: bugtraq shutdown

—
Date: 15 Jan 2021 19:08:11 -0000
From: alias@securityfocus.com

… As we begin 2021, we wanted to send one last note to our friends and supporters at the SecurityFocus BugTraq mailing list … We are forever grateful to those who created, maintained, and contributed to the archive – many of us have connected and learned from each other through these lists … this will be the last message to the list. The archive will be shut down January 31st, 2021.

—

sidd

Clive Robinson • January 17, 2021 2:00 AM

@ Ismar,

Can a secret be kept in the information society

I kind of stopped paying interest when I read,

“To keep a secret from yourself is –if possible at all — more a subject for psychology than sociology”

Shows a distinct lack of knowledge or ability to think logically.

We do this all the time without even realising it. That is we use a tool with no knowledge of how it works. We care not about function but results.

But there are specific occasions in security where it is highly desirable to “Know of a secret” but “not the details”.

For instance when you generate a Public Key Certificate we know it is the multiple of two primes we also know those two primes are used to make the private key. We can generate the two primes in various ways, one of which is to roll dice and type them into a computer untill sufficient randomness has been found as a starting point for each prime.

We see those dice rolls not just in an abstract way, but with sufficiently cognition to be able to type them in at the keyboard. So we know the secret but chose not to remember it.

This has a knock on effect into the legal domain. We have laws in some jurisdictions that require someone to relinquish secrets such as encryption keys to authorities on demand. The only defence alowed is to say you can not remember the key. The framers of the laws assumed as does the author of the paper that it was not posible to use a secret without knowing it or having access to it in some way.

More fool them, if you look back on this blog you will find a number of conversations between @Nick P and myself where we worked out a way to not only come up with a way to do it but also demonstrate you had no reason to know the secret key and more importantly had no access to it. But more importantly whilst it could be found out, it was only available out of the jurisdiction and with the cooperation of others who shared the secret in ways that you could not tell if they were producing the secret or just random data.

So yes it is entirely possible to have a secret that you can keep from yourself and others that you you can use and recover if lost, but you can not give the secret to others no matter how much they demand it, cajole or threaten you.

SpaceLifeForm • January 17, 2021 2:23 AM

@ Ignorant US redneck, Clive

Good luck.

Somehow, you are going to have to securely transmit KEYMAT offsite. Yes, the raw data should be encrypted in case of theft or copying during transit to offsite facility. But, yet, if you ever have to use the offsite backups, you will need the key. No way around it. Which means that KEYMAT has to be securely stored offsite too. Which leads one to look at security of KEYMAT at rest.

You really need to consider all of the attack angles. There are many.

Start here.

Consider the testing of your backup and recovery procedures.
Consider the testing of your backup and recovery procedures.
Consider the testing of your backup and recovery procedures.

There are way too many people to count that have learned that lesson.

They trusted their backup, only to discover later it was corrupted.

Consider preparing three envelopes too.

MrC • January 17, 2021 2:37 AM

@Ignorant US redneck:

Just use LUKS. All you need is an encrypted drive. You don’t need all the extra silliness with hidden containers and self-destruct passwords and such that come with TrueCrypt descendants. (If you do decide to use a TrueCrypt descendant, VeraCrypt seems to be the best of the bunch.)

View storage devices:
lsblk -f -a

Pick the appropriate partition on the appropriate device. Hereinafter, replace sXYZ as appropriate.

Fill the partition with random bits:
dd bs=4K if=/dev/urandom of=/dev/sXYZ

Create a crypt on the new partition:
cryptsetup -v –key-size 512 –hash sha512 –iter-time 5000 –use-random –verify-passphrase luksFormat /dev/sXYZ

(Or if you’re paranoid about side-channels in AES:
cryptsetup -v –cipher twofish-xts-plain64 –key-size 512 –hash sha512 –iter-time 5000 –use-random –verify-passphrase luksFormat /dev/sXYZ
OR
cryptsetup -v –cipher serpent-xts-plain64 –key-size 512 –hash sha512 –iter-time 5000 –use-random –verify-passphrase luksFormat /dev/sXYZ)

Open the crypt. (The name you use here will not persist beyond a reboot.)
cryptsetup luksOpen /dev/sXYZ [name_for_crypt]

Make file system:
mkfs.ext4 /dev/mapper/[name_for_crypt]

To mount:
mkdir /mytempdir
mount -t ext4 /dev/mapper/[name_for_crypt] /mytempdir

To unmount:
umount /mytempdir
rmdir /mytempdir

To make a backup of the LUKS header to enable data recovery efforts if the sectors containing the header are damaged:
cryptsetup luksHeaderBackup /dev/sXYZ –header-backup-file /mytempdir/[filename].img

Though, as Clive said, all you’ve done is relocate your problem: You’ve gone from having a SSD that can’t be permitted to fall into the wrong hands to having a password/keyfile that can’t be permitted to fall into the wrong hands.

Another further thought: A SSD is NOT an ideal device for this endeavor for two reasons:

  1. The internal wear-leveling feature is constantly remapping which physical memory cells correspond to which logical addresses as visible to the OS. There is also a pool of “extra” cells involved in this swapping business to maintain the stated capacity in case some cells fail and need to be retired. The net result is that you cannot be certain a given cell has been deleted or overwritten as you intend versus simply swapped out. In the latter case it’s still readable via the manufacturer’s tools or opening it up and connecting to the flash-memory’s on-chip controller. This may be particularly bad if the drive formerly contained unencrypted data (yours did!) or a LUKS header corresponding to a compromised password just happens to be the bit of data that isn’t deleted/overwritten.
  2. The TRIM functionality will cause your random-filled unused space to rapidly convert into zero-filled unused space. This means that: (a) You lose plausible deniability about whether this is an encrypted drive in the first place. (That probably doesn’t matter for your purposes.) (b) An attacker can see the size of your encrypted files. This may or may not matter for your purposes depending on how much can be inferred from that. (c) An attacker can deduce the file system from the space usage pattern. (Though I’m not aware of way an attacker can leverage that knowledge.)

name.withheld.for.obvious.reasons • January 17, 2021 3:04 AM

@ SpaceLifeForm
Yes, did notice. Taking a while to put the together the whole scenario. I suspect the delay is to provide cover, the understanding of how serious this event was and those that didn’t have an exit plan or alternate turn or strategic option. It goes to hubris and the stupidity that is commonly found in cult/leader based organizations. It is part of being lazy, “Oh, please dear leader tell me what to do and who to do it to.” I just did not know the size of the population that is susceptible to this thinking, that it is okay to violently and overtly act to cause harm in order to affect a political or social grievance. Heck, the people involved in this event believe themselves to be heroes. Like the Keil Rittenhouse, yuck–how f’ing disgusting.

Their actions are an anathema and the polar opposite of what the framers posited in crafting an experimental democratic republic. Just don’t know if we can keep it, and maybe we shouldn’t in its current form. But, my methodological approach to such change is by marking paper with pen, not wielding a sword or a musket. A number of the people in the capital were prevented from putting the bayonet of southern confederate traitors into the heart of the United States.

Individuals that aligned with the traitors gave no duty to law, ethics, or morals. Their argument would be that the actions were justified in service to returning the King to the throne. The underlying contempt for civic engagement is based on this Christian exceptionalism. It claims for itself legitimacy and righteousness and conveniently cast others, heretics, and apostates as worthy of being cast into the sea. Coincidentally, this thinking gives perfect cover to racism and xenophobia while wrapping one’s self in the flag. These people are not patriots, they are not citizens, I’d define them as anti-citizens.

Winter • January 17, 2021 4:44 AM

@name
“It is part of being lazy, “Oh, please dear leader tell me what to do and who to do it to.” ”

This whole attempt to overthrow the Republic reeks a lot like the preparation of Jonestown massacre.

Trump driving his followers into a suicide mission.

Clive Robinson • January 17, 2021 9:35 AM

@ Winter, JonKnowsNothing, name.withheld…, SpaceLifeForm, ALL,

This whole attempt to overthrow the Republic reeks a lot like the preparation of Jonestown massacre.

It’s not just that, it’s also about “power grabs” from the citizens…

So this might be of interest,

https://off-guardian.org/2021/01/08/prepare-for-the-new-domestic-terrorism-bill/

I came across it whilst searching for something entirely different…

Whilst the site and authors politics might be to no ones cup of tea, the article does have a point.

The simple fact is that both parties in US politics hold basically the same view on such things. That is the constitution and ammendments are an impediment to what they see as their exceptional right to power.

The real danger to US freedoms is not what the parties disagree on, but what actions they agree on even though their reasoning and rhetoric may be different and even opposing.

I’ve mentioned this issue before, but unfortunately people don’t think about it very much if at all. Thus do not get it.

Tõnis • January 17, 2021 10:48 AM

@Winter,

“This whole attempt to overthrow the Republic reeks a lot like the preparation of Jonestown massacre.”

It’s more like a silly high school or college prank gone too far. When Burn Loot Murder was smashing plate glass windows and absconding with boxes of athletic footwear and big screen televisions, setting buildings on fire, and overturning police cars, it was characterized as “protest.” Now, when a bunch of misguided misfits wave unapproved flags and put their feet on politicians’ desks, it’s being characterized as an insurrection or domestic terrorism. I’m surprised the media hasn’t called it a revolution yet.

The Framers are rolling over in their graves at this clownshow, this “insurrection.” It’s more likely that these events were staged, or at least allowed to happen, with the help of well-meaning dupes. Look at the result, the ridiculous preparations for the all-important inauguration and the numerous costly prosecutions to seek out and punish the offenders, and it’s all because career politicians and assorted bureaucrats are so important that their safety (and that of the hallowed process itself) must be assured at all cost. 🙄 No, this “revolution” was a joke — an unfunny one.

Winter • January 17, 2021 10:48 AM

@Clive
“The real danger to US freedoms is not what the parties disagree on,”

I think armed mad crowds running through parliament shouting they hang leading politicians to overthrow the election results seems to me to be enough reason to act.

JonKnowsNothing • January 17, 2021 10:50 AM

@Clive @Winter @SpaceLifeForm @All

re:Impromptu vaccine test from Trump Insurrection 01 06 2021

During the 01 06 2021 Trump Insurrection in Washington D.C., a number of congresspersons were huddled up in various safe rooms inside the Capitol Building.

These “test” groups were a mix of Maskers and NoMaskers. They were confined in a small space for a number of hours.

A number of the congresspersons have gotten COVID from the event.

Results of the vaccine test are:

1, No Vaccine = Got COVID
2, 1 Jab Vaccine = Got COVID (Jab on Dec 19, 2020)
3, 2 Jab Vaccine = Got COVID

ht tps://www.chron.com/news/article/California-congressman-tests-positive-for-15877067.php

[This person was NOT in the room / acquired COVID at airport from Trump Protestors] congressman contracted the coronavirus before he could get a second dose of vaccine
…
dozens of lawmakers huddled together for protection during the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. [many got COVID]
…
[This person may have been in the room] New York [congressman] contracted the coronavirus even after getting the second dose of the vaccine.

(url fractured to prevent autorun)

Clive Robinson • January 17, 2021 12:17 PM

@ JonKnowsNothing,

A number of the congresspersons have gotten COVID from the event.

Hmm not a good advert for the efficacy of that phizer vaccine[1]… But then small non random cohorts are going to produce way off the norm figures, which is why trials try to get thoudands of trial participants.

Mind you, you would need to assess against age and the course the disease runs.

I forget what the average of congress critters are but I suspect it’s well in the “red zone”

So definately not your normal trial cohort.

[1] What is the betting this will be used by some to make claims about the alleged tampered data dump of the vaccine trial?

Winter • January 17, 2021 12:53 PM

@Tõnis
“It’s more like a silly high school or college prank gone too far.”

An armed mob hunting down the vice president and speakers of houses to hang them is a different type of event than the looting of a few shops.

But apoologists will never admit there is a difference.

Anonymous • January 17, 2021 2:15 PM

So Navalny returned to Russia and was arrested right away.

I guess this time they finish their work properly. No more playing around with exotic poisons, no more elaborate schemes. After Putin & FSB was humiliated with Bellingcat analysis and social engineering call they will orchestrate something simple – fight in the prison and…

Winter • January 17, 2021 2:23 PM

@Anonymouse
“So Navalny returned to Russia and was arrested right away.”

Seeing how things happened in Belarus, we can expect his wife to take over the lead.

Dead bodies all around give an impression of instability and weakness.

name.withheld.for.obvious.reasons • January 17, 2021 4:33 PM

@ Winter
Yes, a lot of the rhetoric that is coming out of evangelical tents and churches is a “it is in service to Christ that you be willing to die”…priming their flocks to consider that the near future holds moral and mortal peril. This has been a theme over the last several weeks coming out from many practitioners of the Christian Nationalist sect. Christians of the nationalist persuasion cast the Democrats as evil doers, satanists, and coming for your religion and guns, as well as their high caliber acumen and intellectual prowess.

(Oh, maybe not the last two elements, but probably their 5D chess boards)

I understand the single largest component, and probably points to the best way to address the radicalization of much of the U.S. citizenry, is the venomous toxic sermons and pronouncements from the pulpit in the form of couched political speech. The IRS has not forcible made good on the tax exempt status of these organizations as they are engaged in political organizing. And more than that, coordinating with others across the country to mobilize their minions to the streets. Not in protest of some policy interest, but to false raise up their perceived savior. Quite delusion, indeed. (pun intended)

One of the reasons that those under the QaNoN Kool-Aid effect cannot be dissuaded is the attachment of a moral crisis, specifically the attack on Christianity, which allows or condones the use of deceit to achieve some sort of revival of moral righteousness and misguided national pride that is missing from the nation. This is great cover for those cashing checks issued by Jerome Powell and Blackrock into their misappropriated coffers (or is it coefefe). How many megachurches received outlandish PPE grants while still asking their congregations to pile into the pews unmasked?

name.withheld.for.obvious.reasons • January 17, 2021 4:51 PM

@ Clive, SpaceLifeForm
Not quite on topic, just some parallel construction.

Interestingly, keeping a secret from one’s self is not unlike being willfully ignorant. Knowledge can certainly be acquired, say for example the use of prime sequences to generate cryptographic hashes is a functional means to allow for the encapsulation of discernible data into something not trivial to reassemble. In the ignorance case, an individual may pervert the original source information (the thing to be encrypted) and associate/disassociate key elements of the source information forming a new source construct/narrative that is internalized and rewritten as fact (the keymat becomes useless). But, unlike lossless compression, information is lost or destroyed. I know this analogy is weak, need to flush it out a bit.

metaschima • January 17, 2021 5:09 PM

@JonKnowsNothing

The effectiveness of the vaccine depends on a number of things. The real life efficacy of the vaccine is likely to be lower than the 90+% claimed because as you said the experimental subjects were less likely to be exposed than your average Joe, but that’s fine, it’s probably in the 70-80% range. The older you are the less effective the vaccine is likely to be, especially over 65, simply because your immune system just isn’t as good at this age. You really only gain the supposed 90+% efficacy 1-2 weeks after the second dose, I’ve heard different figures but that’s how long it takes most people to generate significant antibodies. As for the likelihood that the virus will mutate beyond vaccine coverage, yes it will probably happen unless people get vaccinated and this thing is stopped as soon as possible. You can still get Covid-19 even with the vaccine, but you are highly unlikely to get a severe form or die. Also, I’ve seen articles saying that it may not prevent spread of COVID-19. Well, the flu vaccine does not directly prevent the spread of the virus either, but when you have less symptoms such as cough, sneezing, etc. you are less likely to spread it, but it’s still possible. In fact I don’t know of a vaccine against a virus that prevents transmission of said virus, and yet a lot of very serious viral illnesses (the ones antivaxxers have not had personal experience with, nor do they trust anyone else’s) have been eradicated due to vaccinations. Masks will still be necessary until things get under control if they ever do.

name.withheld.for.obvious.reasons • January 17, 2021 5:37 PM

@ Edward
I appreciate your attempt to grapple with the issues surrounding privacy and security. Let me set the frame from which we might agree the framers started from when writing the 4th amendment to the constitution. Firstly, the amendments are non-permissive, as is the Constitution in all its articles. The fact that the 10th amendment was even ratified more than suggests so. I see it as insurance for future citizens when the lessons are lost in time and history. First, the British were ruthless when it came to hunting out the King’s enemies. Whole families and lineages were lost to the cruelty of the King’s actions. Taking a perceived enemy, not innocent but guilty, collecting information about one’s friends and associates and instantly make those found to be guilty as well. You can see a kind of uncontrolled spiraling out of control based on a process that cascades guilt (association is also addressed in the 1st amendment). But those were not the only injuries suffered by the colonists where a 4th amendment right did not exist.

Thomas Paine, the most reviled of the framers (though Franklin was a supporter) due to an idiot named Edmund Burke that would after the war attempt to have Paine sealed away in a British (or French) prison, lost his rightful place in history as the most prolific and ardent supporter of liberty and personal freedom. His writings give evidence that Paine, in my opinion, was the first secular humanist. This is ironic given that evangelicals have laid claim to the the founding and principles of the United States but fail to understand what, who, and how the United States came to be. I am not making an argument as to the qualitative nature of the democratic republic that is the U.S., but I will assert that making change as to the nature and fairness of governance surely beats what may be achieved, for example, in Saudi Arabia. Paine was later recognized in France as one of the leading intellectuals in theories and practices of human liberty. That made honorariums and proclamations recognizing Paine’s invaluable contribution to the struggles of humanity. Paine was a Ghandi of the 18th and 19th century.

This is the background, in summarized prose, that guides my understanding out what privacy, let alone security means. First, the government, unless by satisfying specific criteria, does not have cause of action. What you are advocating is that government does have cause, and can act unconditionally. This I will strongly argue is antithetical to constitutional principles of law and to security. Good security doesn’t require action all the time, it is no longer security but control. Thus the thing that needs to be secured is the thing used to control.

If you can or are willing, please considered what is posited and reapply any logical template used to derive a procedural solution set or theory. I will champion a well thought out and reasoned thesis for the social good. It is difficult to derive such schemes given the tendency for humans to act both rationally and irrationally at the same time.

Clive Robinson • January 17, 2021 6:05 PM

@ metaschima,

Masks will still be necessary until things get under control if they ever do.

I’m reluctantly coming to the opinion that we won’t be able to stop this virus, simply because we are not proactive enough.

Prior to vaccines two eveloutionary things happened,

1, A virus would mutate into a less virulent form.
2, Humans would change geneticaly as well, as those with genetic susceptability sucumbed and died out before passing on their susceptible genes.

Originally diseases would be local or at worst regional, they would not be continental or global.

Due to modern travel and the reluctance of too many to stop flying and travaling we now have a global pandemic with super spreaders.

Whilst few care about the viral mutations provided it becomes less virulant perhaps we should consider what happens to humans.

If this virus continues then the human race will have changed. It’s hard to say but anything that reduces genetic diversity is a bad thing not a good thing.

In effect if this virus becomes a fixture like the four common cold corona viruses then the following will be true,

“The human race will have irreparable changed for the worst. What will exist will be a less geneticaly diverse race of bipeds than before. Arguably the human race as we knew it will be no more”.

In effect this virus will not be an existential threat, it will have wiped out those susceptable and the human race that survives will not be the human race it was before.

Does this matter? Well most survivors will not care. But who knows what the reduction in genetic diversity will do?

That is a question we can not yet answer, but we do know that as we become less diverse and more of a monoculture the more susceptable we will be to other pathogens…

Clive Robinson • January 17, 2021 6:20 PM

@ name.withheld…, Ismar, SpaceLifeForm, ALL,

Interestingly, keeping a secret from one’s self is not unlike being willfully ignorant.

I would argue that whilst the processes are similar the intent is not.

The desire not to know is in effect the key difference.

You do not need to know how an internal combustion engine works to be able to drive a vehicle.

Thus avoiding finding out whilst you persue knowledge that you will need and use could be seen as either being “wilfully ignorant” or “good knowledge managment”.

I definitely know more than I need to know, does this make me a better or worse individual?

Well I’ve always found that apparently “useless knowledge” does in fact have uses as knowledge is more often than not subject domain transferable. But I’ve also lost out in that I’ve not taken the time to improve and become more proficient in a given domain.

You can argue it either way and be right in both directions depending on your chosen objective.

Mishigas • January 17, 2021 6:58 PM

@Edward,

You might be interested in an article from Wired, written in 1996, called The Transparent Society by David Brin[1]. The wikipedia article for the same discusses the book that the article is related to as well as some back & forth he’s had with our host about the concept. Parts of what you propose — or what could be logical antecedents also seem to be coming about in high-surveillance locations like London, Singapore, Las Vegas, and large cities in China, if you want case studies where the technology is marching forward, absent a legal framework like the one you suggest.

@Faustus makes some compelling points and suggestions in his objection, particularly appealing to those raised in societies that celebrate (at least nominally) individual determination and representation; at the same time, if you’ve been on here for a while, you’ll have seen some of the regulars and some sadly former-regulars discussing the difficulties of generating sufficiently-convincing fake data and proper opsec, depending on who you might be attempting to confound.

  1. wired[.]com/1996/12/fftransparent/

JonKnowsNothing • January 17, 2021 7:26 PM

@Clive @metaschima @Winter @All

re: Long Haul Vaccines

As the development time for all the current vaccines was incredibly short compared to previous developments this is both a triumph and question mark.

A good number of people here understand that processes do fail and security is a shifting sand depending on time, need, and other factors.

To clarify:
Congresspersons have access to a far better grade of healthcare than the ordinary citizenry. The 3 outcomes, are not unexpected; it is only confirmed (well MSM confirmed). Sometimes vaccines work and sometimes they don’t.

As the vaccine roll outs continue and more RL data is available we will learn more about what the Big Pharma Folks did or did not publish or even test.

The latest is a report from Norway on Pfizer Vaccine (called Comirnaty in the EU) where they are having unexpected deaths in Older 85+ More Frail individuals.

disclosure: tl;dr

Someone asked me about the Pfizer vaccine which is offered for an elderly relative with heart problems, stroke blindness, macular degeneration and dementia.

They are sheltering but cannot shelter completely. There is a risk for them every time they step out to go marketing.

What would you have told them?
I told them what I’ve learned.

Their risk is a TRIAGED Death if the person goes to hospital in California if they get COVID now, or maybe some unknown problem from the vaccine in the distant future.

That distant future became much closer with the Norway report.

ht tps://legemiddelverket.no/nyheter/covid-19-vaccination-associated-with-deaths-in-elderly-people-who-are-frail

Covid-19 vaccination associated with adverse drug reactions in elderly people who are frail

23 deaths associated with covid-19 vaccination of which 13 have been assessed. Common adverse reactions may have contributed to a severe course in elderly people who are frail.

The large studies on Comirnaty (BioNTec/Pfizer) did not include patients with unstable or acute illness – and included few participants over 85 years of age. In Norway we are now vaccinating the elderly and people in nursing homes with serious underlying diseases, therefore it is expected that deaths close to the time vaccination may occur.

The mortality review:
ht tps://legemiddelverket.no/Documents/English/Covid-19/Adverse%20drug%20reactions%20covid-19%20vaccines%20as%20of%20January%2014%202021.pdf

(url fractured to prevent autorun)

name.withheld.for.obvious.reasons • January 17, 2021 8:34 PM

@ Clive
What I am defining as willful ignorance might be restated as the deliberate avoidance to acquire the minimum knowledge or information to make a decision about which your own actions require in order to make “an informed decision”. So, in summary, making “an informed decision” as opposed to a deliberately uninformed decision. There are individuals that deliberately avoid most, in some cases all, information and data about a subject as a psychological tool to avoid having to take the intellectual responsibility that comes from making an “informed decision”. Especially when law requires a showing of intent…

“Yes your honor and members of the jury, I didn’t mean for my neighbor to die of a shotgun wound. I never knew you could expire simply by pulling the shotgun’s trigger while holding it up to my neighbors chest.” This type of argument is often seen in courts as a legal strategy by defendants confessing some inability to reasonable ascertain an event or outcomes. Trump is trying a somewhat similar tactic, saying he cannot be impeached and found guilty of the crime because of the theft of an election, having not factual basis in relevance as it was precipitated in reaction to a continuum of encouragement along a serial event stream irrespective of the some perceptive notion.

What they are arguing is in essence; “I woke up at 6 AM and had breakfast, after which I set my alarm clock and fell asleep getting the needed rest to make sure I had a healthy breakfast.” Another awkward analog, but I am engaged in a few trying issues whilst remaining relevant or useful. Anymore slices in the old intellectually pie and I might just end up pudding. And no Clive, you are only “pick an ad hominem attack of your choosing” because it isn’t relevant to discourse.

So stop being relevant, the attack will surely subside. :^)

Jon • January 17, 2021 9:09 PM

@ Ignorant US Redneck

Another suggestion (but one that might be too expensive) is use ten drives and ten couriers. Eight of the drives contain garbage*. Two of the drives contain data that, when XORed together, gives you your (still encrypted) data.

No courier ever gets more than one drive at a time.

There are all kinds of variants on this, but the basic idea is that no one courier ever has all the data – and what they have could be worthless.

J.

  • Note – since even encrypted files often have legible headers, the ‘garbage’ should rightly be encrypted and XOR’ed garbage, so it looks the same. They should all be exactly equally sized, too.

SpaceLifeForm • January 17, 2021 9:13 PM

@ name, Clive

This is not a surprise to me. I still believe the inauguration should be held at an undisclosed location.

hx t ps://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/fbi-vetting-guard-troops-in-dc-amid-fears-of-insider-attack/ar-BB1cQ9k1

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. defense officials say they are worried about an insider attack or other threat from service members involved in securing President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration, prompting the FBI to vet all of the 25,000 National Guard troops coming into Washington for the event.

SpaceLifeForm • January 17, 2021 11:07 PM

@ name, ALL

Mirror Neurons really are a thing.

If someone you know got sucked into the cult, and you can get them to watch this just over 9 minute video, maybe you can help them out of the cult.

Maybe. I’ve tried. I can’t get them off of Fox and/or Facebook.

Anyway, this is a strong message. Some will ‘get it’ and escape the cult.

h t tps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qud-CiuJTnI&feature=youtu.be

Edward • January 17, 2021 11:34 PM

@ name.withheld.for.obvious.reasons, Mishigas
Thank you both for your insightful comments and suggestions.I have some reading to do! First, Thomas Paine and the US Constitution, and second, the Wired article and/or David Brin’s book. These are excellent references.

By the way, when I posed the question

Can we have widespread pervasive surveillance and privacy?

I asked it in that way because I find it a useful exercise, taking ideas to their limits, and perhaps also to be provocative. But we can dial it back a bit and ask some more concrete questions like, “can we have better checks and balances with regard to the use of street surveillance cameras?”  Or, “can we (should we) come up with a scheme to enforce police body-cam compliance while protecting the privacy of the wearer and of the public?” Anyway, if it helps move the discussion forward let me just rephrase the question like this:

To what extent can we enjoy security plus privacy?

@ name.withheld.for.obvious.reasons
You said, “First, the government, unless by satisfying specific criteria, does not have cause of action.” Might it be argued that no action is taken if the data is not decrypted? I don’t have an opinion, I’m just asking.
By the way does anyone remember a book, I think it was by Larry Niven, in which the premise was an invention that allows everyone to see everything at all times?
I’ll be at work tomorrow, so I won’t have any internet access…  Just kidding, have a great week everyone!
Regards,
Edward

Winter • January 18, 2021 12:20 AM

@Edward
@”By the way does anyone remember a book, I think it was by Larry Niven, in which the premise was an invention that allows everyone to see everything at all times?”

I remember a few such stories vaguely. Sorry, no authors. I remember reading these in the 1970s, early 1980s.

One was about a device which let you look at any place in time and space. So, with lip reading, you could see what was said during secret meetings any time in the now and past. It ended with the black ops storming the group trying to open this opportunity.

The other was about something that would broadcast any place to everyone. It ended with the dictator/tyrant adapting to perfect openness without changing policies.

No positive endings then.

Winter • January 18, 2021 1:01 AM

Twitter ban seems to work:

Election Misinformation Fell 73% After Trump’s Twitter Ban, Study Finds

Misinformation surrounding the 2020 US presidential election dropped by 73% after President Donald Trump and a number of his supporters were banned from Twitter and other social media sites, research shows.

The study, which was carried out by media intelligence company Zignal Labs, found that baseless claims of election fraud fell from 2.5 million mentions across the platforms to 688,000 following Trump’s suspensions.

There was also a huge plunge in the use of hashtags linked to the January 6 attack on the US Capitol. Hashtags ‘Fight for Trump’, ‘Hold The Line’, and ‘March for Trump’ were used 95% less, Zignal found.

https://www.unilad.co.uk/news/election-misinformation-fell-73-after-trumps-twitter-ban-study-finds/

Not surprisingly, the crucial part is:

Graham Brookie, director of the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab, which tracks misinformation, told The Post: ‘De-platforming, especially at the scale that occurred last week, rapidly curbs momentum and ability to reach new audiences.’

The whole point of censorship is not so much covering up information, but preventing coordination of movements.

Winter • January 18, 2021 1:07 AM

@Jon
“The latest is a report from Norway on Pfizer Vaccine (called Comirnaty in the EU) where they are having unexpected deaths in Older 85+ More Frail individuals.”

The cause I have seen mentioned is that these people are so frail that the normally harmless side-effects of vaccination are too much for these people. The reasoning seems to develop in a direction that such frail people with only very short life expectancy do not gain a longer life or extra quality of life out of the vaccination.

Jon • January 18, 2021 1:33 AM

@ Winter :

One of the stories was by Issac Asimov, and called “The Dead Past” in that someone had invented a ‘chronoscope’ that could see into the past. Problem is, it could see anywhere into the past – including five minutes ago.

It could see anywhere. J.

JonKnowsNothing • January 18, 2021 1:58 AM

@Winter

re: The cause I have seen mentioned is that these people are so frail that the normally harmless side-effects of vaccination are too much for these people. The reasoning seems to develop in a direction that such frail people with only very short life expectancy do not gain a longer life or extra quality of life out of the vaccination.

  a) This statement is a minefield and you are in the middle of one without a map
  c) Best get out the flame retardant long johns …

btw Harmless side effects are NOT harmless if they KILL YOU…

On a more wonderful note (read sarcasm):

California now has it’s very own COVID-19 variant: L452R

  * Comes complete with antibody escapes and spike protein changes.
  * This variant is responsible for the Christmas Costume outbreak in
      Kaiser Hospital in San Jose, CA Dec 2020 (many infected 1 died).
      The inflatable costume fan is blamed for blowing in all over
      the ward and into other areas. (check archives for posts on the topic)
  * 25% of COVID-19 infections in California are now this variant
  * Variant was first identified in Denmark 2020.
  * Variant was first found in California May 2020.

And on a jollier note (not):

The crematoriums are polluting the air in Los Angeles. The fridge trucks are full too. Reminds me of Wuhan where they had to bring in portable crematories.

So many people have died in Los Angeles County that officials have temporarily suspended air-quality regulations that limit the number of cremations. Health officials and the L.A. County coroner requested the change because the current death rate is “more than double that of pre-pandemic years, leading to hospitals, funeral homes and crematoriums exceeding capacity, without the ability to process the backlog,” the South Coast Air Quality Management District said Sunday.

A possible maybe true item: The numbers have started to go down.

It could be memorex, it could be the 3day weekend in the USA, it could be faked/falsified/omitted data but… maybe it’s true.

Winter • January 18, 2021 2:03 AM

@xcv
“I can’t tell if you are serious or mocking.”

I just recount the opinion of the medical specialist involved in the incident. It sounds plausible, as this is exactly the definition of “frail”.

@xcv
“because the goal of every physician in practice today is to extort and collect as much money as they can from patients”

Not in Norway. Physicians do not get paid by the treatment in Norway like in the USA.

@xcv
“The law of Moses applies in an abortion district.”

Which is irrelevant with regard to the vaccination of 85+ frail seniors.

@xcv
“And yet to this day we are forced without mercy to remain slaves and indentured servants to our medical doctors”

I would suggest you move to Scandinavia. There, you are not at the mercy of medical doctors. You might feel out of place as an admirer of fascists, but for the rest, Scandinavia is a good place to live.

Winter • January 18, 2021 2:08 AM

@Jon
“btw Harmless side effects are NOT harmless if they KILL YOU…”

Peanuts are harmless, even though they can kill those with an allergy. As it looks now, the prescription of the vaccine has to be altered to exclude the very old and frail.

@Jon
“California now has it’s very own COVID-19 variant: L452R”

“The end is near, we all die!” is a self fulfilling prophecy. Even if a vaccine is not 100% effective, it can reduce the impact of the disease. And even if we would need a new vaccine for the new variant, we still need the old one for the old variant.

@Jon
“The crematoriums are polluting the air in Los Angeles.”

We know the USA has been unable to organize an effective response to the pandemic. No news here.

Winter • January 18, 2021 2:13 AM

@Jon
“One of the stories was by Issac Asimov, and called “The Dead Past” ”

I do not remember the plot of this story. But as I read everything of Asimov I could lay my hands on, it is very likely I did read it and the memory lingered.

Clive Robinson • January 18, 2021 3:05 AM

@ JonKnowsNothing,

It could be memorex, it could be the 3day weekend in the USA, it could be faked/falsified/omitted data but… maybe it’s true.

It might be true, and in the future it will be true, but it probably is not currently.

Have a look at the US infection curves you see several dips followed by jumps. These are artifacts of the data collection methods with time.

However when you stand back a bit and let your eye seek the natural average out you can see that the trend is still upwards.

As I’ve said for nearly a year now, eep your eye on the death rate especially the excess death rate. Because if hospitals are unsaturated it follows the infection rate with a three to four week delay. As hospitals saturate it happens at one to two weeks behind the infection rate and has a faster rise time.

Further in a lock down the normal death rate drops as accidents and other causes such as flu and cold infections do not take their toll in the usual way as the social effects that cause them are broken.

Yes the figures are horrific and way worse than they should have been. Much of this pain, suffering and death could have easily been avoided. Most of us on this blog know that because commentors did the math and knew what the drivers were.

Most that have done engineering, physics, biology and quite a few other sciences know what exponential growth and decay rates are, and more importantly the simple (%) maths behind them. Thus can see the difference between natural exponential change and non natural change caused by other drivers such as healthcare becoming saturated.

I am still horrified by the “heard immunity policy” that short termists pushed to their own profit, and those without sufficient education were seduced by. The fact that millions of people have come to harm or have died and are doing so daily at an increasing rate should tell everybody something.

That is that a certain type of living and behaviour is suicidal not just in the short term but the long term. SARS-CoV-2 is an “equal opportunities infection” it goes where ever there is an opportunity for it to do so. It has no respect for status bought with money, power, or various forms of turpitude.

As has been noted the invasion of the Capitol can be looked on as an experiment. Those in the building by right have better healthcare than most of the US population. Those who invaded for numerous reasons were carriers of the infection. Whilst the two groups did not directly meet, they came close enough to open an opportunity for the virus…

Over the past dozen days we have seen the figures of infection rise in those in the building by right, and over the next five weeks we will see how many of them die or will be longterm harmed. We can not say for certain that they were directly harmed by the invading group but I’m sure many will draw their own conclusions. Likewise similar infection patterns, harms, and death will happen in the invading group only this will not be as visable to the public eye.

Personally I think holding the inauguration ceremony in public is a very bad idea. Not because of the potential for hostile acts, but because of the opportunity it gives to the virus to spread in those daft enough to attend.

Winter • January 18, 2021 3:29 AM

@Clive
“Personally I think holding the inauguration ceremony in public is a very bad idea. ”

However, not holding the inauguration in public will delegitimize Biden’s presidency with disastrous results. I presume/hope these two potential disasters will be weighted against each other to look for the least damages.

Clive Robinson • January 18, 2021 4:22 AM

@ Winter,

Once upon a time I would have said, “just televise it” and that would have worked.

Now however as we know images can be faked well enough that “Freedy the Flower”[1] can be made to look not like a plant but a human.

I guess even holding it in front of just a few people at a safe distance from each other will start a conspircy theory amongst those who have a mind to.

It’s a classic damned if you do damned if you don’t no win scenario. The best you can do is weigh the harms and try to minimize them.

[1] OK that was not the name put on the ballot but trying to internet search with “pot plant” and “ballot” in the same search brings up nothing but cannabis legalisation articles.

moz • January 18, 2021 5:12 AM

Man found living for months in the secure area of an Airport:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/18/man-found-living-in-chicago-airport-for-three-months-due-to-fear-of-covid

The man has been found to be a “danger to the community” through his actions of staying in a secure area. In other words, he’s going to be charged for embarrassing the security establishment. This is the physical equivalent of a hacker that demonstrates a way into a system but then does no evil with it. @Bruce, as a “person with influence”, I wonder if you would think it appropriate to give him some support to say that the punishment should fit the minor crime of using someones space rather than any major crime of endangering air travelers since it’s not his fault if the airport security was inadequate.

Definitely hope he gets some good legal support. He’s unemployed, though, so I have my doubts.

metaschima • January 18, 2021 8:03 AM

@Clive JonKnowsNothing Winter

I agree that this virus will end up changing the human race, perhaps even evolving it. The vaccine may augment this however, as vaccines have in the past.

I have heard of the deaths in very frail 85 yo and ups, and thank you for the article. The vaccine is and should always be an informed decision. People who are very sick or frail may not be able to tolerate the side effects, which from personal experience are quite significant, maybe not something someone who is very frail can tolerate. Not taking the vaccine is also a risk. Everyone should understand the risk of each and decide for themselves. Nobody is being forced to take the vaccine. If you think it will kill you, then don’t take, but be well aware that COVID is orders of magnitude more likely to kill you and the way things are going you may get COVID several times because without the vaccine your immunity at best will last 6-12 months after you get infected and develop antibodies. People who are only mildly ill are much less likely to develop antibodies. I believe a lot of this is because our immune systems have evolved over millions of years to ignore coronavirus because it’s usually a common cold virus, and as such having this kind of new trojan horse COVID-19 really messes with things. Don’t think that death is the worst that can happen with this. I’ve seen young people have strokes from this, trust me, this is not what you want for the rest of your life. Always look at the big picture, the conspiracy theorists and antivaxxers only focus on trees in a forest and miss the forest, not to mention the ton of misinformation they spout. Just know that healthcare systems around the world including the USA and Japan are near collapse. Ambulance teams in California are instructed to leave patients that are unlikely to survive, add to that the cyberattacks that have crippled hospital systems, the lack of protective equipment, the lack of oxygen. It’s not hard to imagine a world without functioning hospitals. That time may come in the near future. You think you’ll have the opportunity to get a vaccine at that time? You’ll be dealing with potentially severe COVID-19 at home … Best of luck, I hope you thought ahead.

Winter • January 18, 2021 8:19 AM

@metachima, Clive all
“I agree that this virus will end up changing the human race, perhaps even evolving it. ”

That is customary. In general, it involves changes in blood types and related cell surface antigens. It happens all the time, over all of human history.

But remember that the medieval plague killed 1/3rd and more of the population of Eurasia. The resulting evolution of humanity was limited to cellular and immunity related factors.

Goat • January 18, 2021 8:44 AM

@SpaceLifeForm Avoid using FLOSS as term. 😉 Check gnu words to avoid for details.

When it isn’t free software I like to say non-free opensource software.

Winter • January 18, 2021 9:20 AM

@Goat
“@SpaceLifeForm Avoid using FLOSS as term. 😉 Check gnu words to avoid for details.”

I detest the “Free-er than Free” shouting match between the GNU project and the OSI.

Goat • January 18, 2021 9:33 AM

@Winter this is no war of freer or free, it’s not abot gnu or osi… Freedom is about ethics while open source is about business sense.

Goat • January 18, 2021 9:38 AM

If you detest it still open osi website and search for facebook, then pull a site search on gnu.org for facebook and see the difference yourself. 🙂

Winter • January 18, 2021 9:38 AM

From the “You would not believe it when you did not see it” department:

Dating apps are using images from the siege to ban rioters’ accounts

Women and men have in some cases also turned the dating apps into hunting grounds, striking up conversations with rioters, gathering potentially incriminating photos or confessions, then relaying them to the FBI. Using the dating apps to pursue members of the mob has become a viral pursuit, with tips shared on Twitter and some women changing their location on the dating apps to Washington, D.C., in hopes of ensnaring a potential suspect.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/01/16/siege-dating-app-bans/

See also:
https://twitter.com/allisonnorris/status/1347416130500096000

Winter • January 18, 2021 9:49 AM

@Goat
“Freedom is about ethics while open source is about business sense.”

Copyright licenses are about law. FLOSS is about the use of licenses. Whether a developer uses the GNU GPL or MIT license tells us nothing at all about the morality or ethics of this developer.

The GNU and OSI foundations are political organizations that have a strong disconnect with people living outside of the USA. I have difficulty making sense of their stances in politics and/or law. When I do make sense of their stance, I generally consider their stances idiotic and tend to question their mental sanity.

Europeans tend to use “FLOSS” for this very reason. They cannot see the point of the the arguments and fights between the OSI and GNU project.

Goat • January 18, 2021 9:55 AM

Rule 1: Invent problems sell solutions

Technology companies have created a lot of polarisation at the forst place and now they are doing banning.

Censorship(Algorithmic) begets censorship(trum)

There are always people who are gullible due to several reasons. These people who spend a lot of time on the internet are more likely to be caught in a bubble viola we can make money from them then push them out and let
other businesses make money from them.

PS: I may sound anti-business but I am not 😮

JonKnowsNothing • January 18, 2021 9:59 AM

@Winter Clive All

re:Informed Choice

There are only 2 choices for vaccines: Yes and No
  I am 100% in the YES camp

However, informed choices comes in several flavors:
  Ostrich Model – don’t want to know
  FanBois Model – anything with a fruit icon is great!
  Herminone Model – overloaded with information

What the new trickles of data show, is not whether we should take or not take a vaccine, it is what data was or was not omitted compared to what was given to the public. All the Big Pharma folks sent their data to CDC/SSI agencies but not many of them opened their data to average Joe to check. The CDC/SSI folks would consider folks outside of the CDC/SSI to be “average Joes” but most people reading this blog are not average.

What we find out is stuff that we’ve already suspected (see archives).

  • Big Pharma omitted details.
    Most likely to protect their patent and their profit margins and disaster capitalism means Big Payouts.
  • The Cold Chain for the mRNA vaccines is a problem.
    A batch/lot of Moderna vaccine injections was stopped because of “fewer than 10” reactions to that batch. Either the cold chain failed, there is some other problem with the physical setup, like bad equipment, technique or a fault in manufacturing. All of this happens with common vaccines like Flu too.
  • The vaccines need to be targeted
    Currently, we are rolling out One Size Fits All, vaccinations. What the data and deaths show is that the vaccines are Not One Size Fits All. The reality is that Pfizer did Not Test their vaccine on 80+. Norway trusted that the omitted test from Pfizer wouldn’t make any difference. Norway CDC/SSI agency had the data showing there was No Testing for that age group. So they experimented on live subjects that were breathing just fine before they got jabbed and 2+ days later died of complications. Is Pfizer at fault? Is the Norway CDC/SSI at fault? Are the families at fault?

Long ago, then not too long ago again, and then in the not distant past once more, globally it was decided: Experimenting on people without consent is Not OK.

Nothing is risk free, even death isn’t risk free. Egyptologists just dug up another 50 graves and the UK found a very interesting grave in the path of some industrial development.

We try to make it risk free as possible but it’s not possible without full disclosure.

Fluffing off someone else’s life, their family, their relatives and the social impacts is what the Herd Immunity Policy folks want more than anything:

  • The Bank of Mom and Dad can only keep back-flowing if more people die.
    Current counts are: 400,000 USA, 88,000 UK, 200,000 Brazil, 2,000,000 Global (see archives)

Goat • January 18, 2021 10:20 AM

@JonKnowsNothing, In India the largest vaccination programme is going on and transparency is a big issue. Until due procedures are complied with openly it’s quite difficult to build trust. It’ not me or an average joe who says that transparency is missing but eminent scientist specialised in the field.

Though I am encouraging people to avoid rumors, truth be told fear comes from gaps in knowing that these companies and well known orgs

Clive Robinson • January 18, 2021 11:22 AM

@ metaschima,

be well aware that COVID is orders of magnitude more likely to kill you and the way things are going you may get COVID several times because without the vaccine your immunity at best will last 6-12 months after you get infected and develop antibodies.

The first part of your statment I’ve highlighted requires two things to be true,

1, The virus has mutated beyond your immune response.
2, You come into contact with such a mutated virus.

Neither is a certainty. Even with the four varieties of the corona virus that cause the common cold, your immunity tends to last five to ten years with each varient. The fact you get a cold at other times is down to other viruses, for which I can not remember the expected immunity times.

The second of your statments is very probably untrue. There has been research done on frontline UK hospital healthcare staff, re infection rates are increadibly low something like 0.06% and as I understand it to a different mutation. Thus is a thin tail of the expected distribution of immune system failing on new mutations.

The other thing is we only have around 9months of reliable data to work with, because the early cases were diagnosed by unreliable symptoms.

Therefor all we can say is,

“SARS-2 Immunity lasts AT LEAST 9 months for the majority”

But the closest virus to SARS-CoV-2 is SARS-CoV-1 which is now 17years ago and testing shows that the few who caught SARS-1 still have immunity. So all we can say for them is,

“SARS-1 Immunity lasts AT LEAST 17 years for the majority”

The virologists who are a conservative bunch at the best of times are at pains to point out the “AT LEAST” asspect and often without prompting talk about SARS-1 immune response time and imply they have reasonable reasons to think SARS-2 might have a similar immune system response time.

But as I said “we do not know” and only time will tell. But based on other Corona viruses that infect humans 5years as a minimum would be a starting point.

JonKnowsNothing • January 18, 2021 12:22 PM

@xcv

Doctors and living conditions are far better in Europe than in the USA or UK.

In the countries mentioned the general population has a very high quality of economic stability and access to all the items a modern society expects.

You might want to really take a look at whats on offer, provided you can qualify for the visa, residency and work permits needed.

Also, medicinal leeches are quite good at doing their jobs. Handy for delicate areas and specialty surgeries. Still in use, after hundreds of years.

As far as “free clinics” in the USA, they are doing what they can do. Since an enormous part of the population has Zero Health Care Coverage, you better hope they do even more ’cause you are going to be paying for all the COVID-19 Uninsured (@20MILL non-dead USA).

Have you spotted the early warning signs of “claw backs” seeping out of the neoliberal enclaves? They want their money and the only place they can get it, is from you.

Winter • January 18, 2021 12:44 PM

@xcv
“You mean working doctors don’t get paid for all the hours they put in at the hospital downtown Oslo in Socialist Norway?”

They are paid hourly wages. Salaries are good.

@xcv
“Well, there’s a socialist Swedish hospital downtown Seattle in the middle of the CHAZ / CHOP zone, where the same dirty doctors have the same privileges to chop off limbs outside the jurisdiction of the corrupt pot-smoking city cops.”

I do not understand what you want to say here. I seriously doubt that there are Swedish hospitals in the USA. They are, by definition, all in Sweden.

@xcv
“Medieval European medicine is not the cure for what ails America, ”

You have obviously never visited a Skandinavian, or even European, hospital? Please do, but only visiting!

Clive Robinson • January 18, 2021 1:07 PM

@ Winter, JonKnowsNothing, ALL,

The cause I have seen mentioned is that these people are so frail that the normally harmless side-effects of vaccination are too much for these people.

I am unsurprised by this, in fact I was kind of expecting this with the mRNA injections.

If you think about it the mRNA acts like an infection, and body cells are destroyed and you enter a feaver state as you would with an infection, this is as people should appreciate quite stressfull.

In a conventional vaccine it does not require the destruction of body cells other than the phages in the immune system…

I suspect those formulating the mRNA and subsequent delivery mechanisms were well aware of this issue.

I’m not against vaccination and look forward to the Oxford or similar conventional vaccines. What I do object to is these companies using the world as guineapigs for what is effectively untried technology, that has for something like four decades has not been considered upto being put into trials.

Worse I suspect that there is complicitous behaviour in both the US and EU with regards making these mRNA vaccines the only option untill after the very profitable peek demand of the main respiritory disease season.

Jon • January 18, 2021 1:38 PM

@ Winter
I went sniffing in my collection, and found it in “Earth is Room Enough” and “Complete Stories, Vol. 1” (and probably others).

And mea culpa, it’s Isaac Asimov – I knew that minutes after I’d submitted the comment, but editing here isn’t… J.

Clive Robinson • January 18, 2021 2:40 PM

@ Winter,

It happens all the time, over all of human history.

That is a little ambiguous to put it mildly.

Until transportation for trade, disease was usually local often very local, a village might get sick and a high percentage die within a couple of weeks, then the pathogen had no more hosts thus either died out or mutated usually but by no means always to a less virulent strain.

So it was rare for diseases to be even regional (size of a county) before they became less deadly, but still tended to die out before becoming national or continental. Thus the bulk of humanity was unaffected by any individual disease, so the genetic effects were quite limited, thus if they caused further issues then the bumbers effected were small to insignificant.

It was generally only with disease spread from other creatures that roamed freely amongst mankind that disease spread far and wide by “transportation” of the disease reservoir and infection vectors.

Thus with Y-pestis, originally just pestis from the Latin pestilentia meaning pestilence. It was not called the “Black Death” untill quite some time later from scandinavian chroniclers. However it’s accepted that the spread was by trade vessels and cargos in which rodents and fleas habited.

Whilst there is still some dispute as to which disease it actually was and all the infection vectors, the most common belief is that the bacterial pathogen attacked rats and was not a respiritory disease though it did kill the rat hosts.

Further that it spread via contaminated blood in rat fleas from rat to rat. Thus generaly stayed in/on rats untill all the rats became unavailable then the fleas attacked other warm blooded creatures with high levels of carbon dioxide in their breath. So a trading ship with rats on board would sail and only some time later would the fleas bite humans passing it into them where it became a respiritory disease that was spread in two main ways, firstly by droplet transmission person to person and secondly by human fleas transfering from person to person. Due to various religious and other beliefs lets just say that Europe was an ideal place forvthe disease to spread far and wide.

The actual mortality rate is unknown but could have been over 60% initially dropping later to 30% and below, before eventually receding over a century and a hald from humans.

The original bacterial pathogen has mutated but it’s known to still be in rodent populations that act as a disease reservoir. Which is why even today varients do spring up from time to time. If caught reasonably quickly low cost antibiotics deal with it in humans with a high success rate thus modern deaths are lower ~11%. However around a quater of a century ago a drug resistant strain appeared sparking significant worries that bubonic plague could return not just as an epidemic but a full pandemic. As far as I can remember the last major outbreak with thousands infected was the island of Madagascar in 2017 with over 150 deaths.

It was in part this potential pandemic that caused healthcare and government agencies to review their plans. Most were considered to be significantly insufficient (ie F for fail grade). Whilst plans etc were updated most Western Politician’s in effect “waved it away” thus funding to follow through on action plans did not happen. Perhaps if they had we would not be in the situation we are currently in and “Disaster Capitalism” that the ordinary citizen will be paying off for the next fifty to a hundred years would not have run rampant on political favours.

The lesson in the UK and I assume France, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the US, is that if a politician took advice it was from the wrong people or that they willfully chose[1] to ignore sound and scientifically backed advice for their own reasons. Because it’s clear that if there was a wrong way to do things then they went that way… Their excuse has been trying to keep the economy afloat… Well guess what they certainly trashed it over and over and over again. Where as if they had followed the basic scientific advice, the countries economies would not have been trashed to thr extent they are. Before people say “Ah but…” no there is no “Ah but” they were given clear advice and willfully failed to follow it. Quite a few other countries not just island states did follow scientific advice and guess what, their internal economies are near normall, not crashed and burned out holes in the ground which the ordinary citizen will hardly be able to rise above. Those exceptional capatalists however much beloved of the sociopaths that run and work in the financial markets especially the “Disaster Capitalists” are sitting there laughing with something like a third of a nations wealth moved their way and the ordinary citizen reduced to begar status having to sell off any assets at “fire sale” prices to the great delight of some capitalists that are buying them up dirt cheap.

[1] Personally I do not regard such behaviour as “willfull ignorance” that is an easy excuse for them to get away with it. Criminal negligence resulting in mass homicide would better describe the behaviour. Somebody was saying the other day that the death rate is over four times that of WWII…

Winter • January 18, 2021 3:18 PM

@Clive
“Until transportation for trade, disease was usually local often very local, a village might get sick and a high percentage die within a couple of weeks”

Cities have been net population sinks due to plagues since their inception 10k+ years ago. And Y Pestis has been isolated from plague graves since Roman times (Julian plague).

I follow Jared Diamond attributing infectious diseases to animal husbandry. Nomades with animals travelled up and down Eurasia from 10k years back. So I cannot see how that could have been done without spreading diseases.

Winter • January 18, 2021 3:22 PM

@Clive
“That is a little ambiguous to put it mildly.”

The genes we have kept from Neanderthals are largely related to resistance to infections. Blood type distribution too is related to prevalence of infectious diseases.

Sickle cell anemia and Malaria is not the only one.

xcv • January 18, 2021 4:17 PM

@xcv
“Medieval European medicine is not the cure for what ails America, ”

You have obviously never visited a Skandinavian, or even European, hospital? Please do, but only visiting!

I fell off my bicycle in Northern Sweden after being served some kind of apple juice with more than the legally permitted limit of alcohol content for a non-alcoholic beverage — and fractured my skull, but the hospital refused to admit me for lack of verifiable insurance coverage — just as well as I learned later, I was still conscious and breathing, the doctors were not going to do anything to “help” me survive and recover under any circumstances, and they didn’t want an investigation to put their medical licenses at risk, and I wouldn’t have wanted to risk death by murder-for-hire on a contract hit by those same doctors — at least not until I was safely put of the country back home in USA. But that is no longer any guarantee of protection fr those doctors under the impending Euro-friendly presidential administration.

name.withheld.for.obvious.reasons • January 18, 2021 5:33 PM

Addendum to the Security versus Privacy Debate
A few housekeeping issues, common definitions:
Constitution; the set of documents wherein Principal Law is proclaimed, expressed, and amended. They are the “Declaration of Independence”, the “Constitution of the United States of America”, and the “Amendments to the Constitution of the United States of America” (also known as the Bill of Rights)

Textualism; the concept that the original text retains a static meaning and understanding. Much has been written concerning this theory of interoperation, my understanding is that is a failed theory and not even a good hypothesis. History is only static in the moment it occurs, it is our understanding that is questionable as to intent, perception, and action that occurs in a frame no longer available to us. Interrogating the past is impossible in any fully present sense. The now cannot be then. Reminds me of a Tull track, Living in the Past.

Look Ma, I’m on TV
Understand that the past, history, is similar to a motion picture movie; each frame is a snapshot in time, and over time, fewer and fewer snapshots represent the 24 frames a second recording. Eventually, if reverance and fidelity to history is not maintained, much like physical film, the nature and understanding of history fades until no one is capable of being faithful to it. This is how human history repeatedly finds itself in similar situations again and again. In the U.S. this is demonstrated by several simutaneous crisis points (this is not an exhaustive exploration of any single crisis, nor is it an accurate representation of the existing ones).

Crisis Example No. One of Thirty
Where the Spanish Flu of 1918 informed the U.S. of how pandemics work, mediation strategies, and even communications; how the pandemic came to called the “Spanish Flu” is a good example. Laws were even passed to address issues of communicability of the Flu. Today, jug heads complain of mask wearing as if being able to kill your neighbor is a thing. I guess if Trump is your guidepost, “I could shot somebody on 5th Avenue and not lose any votes.”

Crisis Example No. Two of Thirty
Another demonstrative crisis; social cohesion is being eroded away by the river of lies and mistruths in a manner similar (more historically relevant) to the issues causing the Civil War. The U.S. has failed to formally conclude this war, the victors and the vanquished have not resolved the causes and symptoms. I didn’t know that “watching paint dry” is analogous to human discourse. Progression, from the abolition of slavery to the recognition that all are created equal, appears as distant as the nearest stellar body. The United States has yet to conclude the U.S. war with the “Confederate States” and there still is no honest claim to “all are created equal”. In other words, the U.S. is a failed union–it is not United by any stretch of the imagination.

Common Threads, not Posix Complaint or Pthreads
This overt dereliction and raw stupidity is consuming us all, just these two crisis can and will end us in very real terms. The stress to society currently is huge, and we are not close to the crescendo of this opera let alone the curtain call. I don’t see any genuine commitment to resolving these two issues, let alone the 28 others I’ve documented that are as much if not more impactful then the ones discussed here.

Crossroads?
To summarize: We, as was said during the revolution for independence; We will all either hang together, or separately. And, during the Civil War; “A house divided, cannot stand.” This is where we are…will no one rise to meet history? (By rise, address in the most stringent and powerful manner, the crimes against our humanity)

Clive Robinson • January 18, 2021 5:38 PM

@ Bruce, All,

Where have all the Trumpers gone?[1]

The FCC has issued a notice to all Radio Operators

On a sunday morning no less…

As one recipient has noted,

In a bizzare warning issued by the FCC and followed by a warning from the Association for Amateur Radio, The ARRL, ham are warned on a Sunday morning to not commit crimes with their equipment.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AHIoZckhbKA

Apparantly the FCC has been given credible warning of a “terrorist” threat by Trumpers that are now severed from social media, so are going to use two way radio communications to “plan Federal crimes” and other illegal or questionable activities. So all Hams, CBers, FRS, Marine, Aircraft, and other licenced operators have been issued a notice that they should,

1, Not use their equipment for criminal activities.
2, Not use code or other obsfication in transmissions.

Well I’ve news for the FCC the majority of Trumpers are not licenced[2]. That is they won’t get the FCC notice and would probably only use if for “can paper” if they did.

Further as I am aware of as you can at certain times pick it up in the UK, there has been jaming using school child insults phrased in adult language and political rhetoric and fake news on the 80 and 40 metre phone bands for quite some time now.

For non radio experts when you transmit an antenna radiates unequally in diferent ditections. At low frequencies such as the 160 and 80 metre Ham bands and MF marine bands (~1.5-4Mhz) you get a reasonable ground wave with a verticle 1/4wave or 1/2 wave dipole mounted at a sufficient hight giving 50-100mile coverage. If however you mount the antenna lower down say 10-20ft of the ground with a reflector radial underneath the ground wave is minimal and the “Near Vertical Incidence Skywave” (NVIS) will predominate. The NVIS will reflect almost straight down and out to +-60degrees (from horizon) giving a covarge footprint geting on for as large as the larger US States.

Importantly whilst the ground wave is easy to Radio Direction Find (RDF) the NVIS return is very difficult to use RDF techniques to locate the transmitter. If you have the space and you want to make RDF of your TX site even harder[3] you can use two antennas at 90degrees to each other and transmit circularly polarised or randomly rotating polarized waves, which messes things up even further for RDF techniques.

The only way to find an NVIS tx quickly is via a high altitude aircraft that can fly into the upward radiated signal before it is reflected, and RDF from there such that a ground team can get close enough to pick up the residual ground wave. The down side of this is ADS-B and offset radar techiques will give the more technically adept significant warning of search aircraft thus can switch to an alternative TX site half a state or more away.

[1] No not a song title but apparently a “terrorist” level threat… So the FCC has issued a notice to all operators of such urgency they did it on a sunday morning =:§ Getting bureaucrats in on a weekend in what is effectively a civilian and commercial oversight agency is a real shock…

[2] Almost certainly they will be using Prepper recommend equipment like the Boafang UV5R and similar dirt cheap chinese 3-10Watt handhelds so they can not just listen in but talk/Jam on Police, National Guard and similar Frequencies in the VHF and UHF bands.

[3] There are a couple of other tricks, one of which is to couple in to what have been called by some “accidental antennas”. These are essentially very long wire antennas such as cattle fences a mile or more long or even over head power lines that can be fifty miles long… I won’t go into details of power line coupling because it usually only happens accidently from the likes of electric fences and if you are stupid enough to try to do it has real downsides of not just peronal injury and death but in some places interfering with switch gear control signalling, which is how the accidental couplings have been flagged up fast in the past. However fences can be coupled into inductively be it by puting a ferrite ring matching transformer in line or by using a gama match or similar.

Lawrence • January 18, 2021 5:39 PM

@metaschima, @clive, @goat @Uncle Tom Cobley and all

With regard to @metaschima’s earlier comment and Clive’s response regarding reinfection – could there be some confusion between reinfections and readdmissions?

The Sydney Moring Herald has an article exploring the clinical obeservation that nearly one third of Covid-19 patients in the UK are readmitted within five months (with a >10% mortality rate). The study has yet to be peer reviewed but certainly worth following. For countries with massive populations the consequences, if the report turns out to be correct, are beyond my willingness to comprehend.

ht tps://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/one-in-three-covid-patients-in-uk-readmitted-within-five-months-20210118-p56v33.html

Lawrence • January 18, 2021 6:19 PM

Further to my previous post of Covid readmissions:

Haven’t been able to locate the report however additional detail is available here:

ht tps://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-nearly-a-third-of-coronavirus-patients-were-readmitted-to-hospital-within-140-days-study-suggests-12190897

xcv • January 18, 2021 7:04 PM

So all Hams, CBers, FRS, Marine, Aircraft, and other licenced operators have been issued a notice that they should,

1, Not use their equipment for criminal activities.
2, Not use code or other obsfication in transmissions

That’s the law as explained by “experts” for “experts” …

Not as interpreted and ENFORCED by average working cops on the beat with a warrant to pick up any and all unauthorized electronics.

A loose transistor or a diode or something like that or a hobby electronics kit will assuredly get you arrested and charged no matter what — throw in a plant-and-bust child pornography charge or a weapons violation or two, and that’s 20–30 years in the federal penitentiary just because they don’t like hobby people fooling around with electronics even if they aren’t hurting anybody or doing anything wrong with it.

That’s the government. If you do electronics as a hobby and you’re not a licensed professional, you’re bound to be stepping on somebody’s toes or intellectual property or something like that, and you’ll just get arrested and go to prison for any kind of electronics kit if it isn’t something you “need” for your registered and licensed trade or occupation.

Wesley Parish • January 18, 2021 7:31 PM

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention this:
A threat to confront: far-right extremists and nuclear terrorism
https://thebulletin.org/2021/01/a-threat-to-confront-far-right-extremists-and-nuclear-terrorism/

Every president serving in the last two decades has said that nuclear terrorism is a significant national security threat. Analysis of this threat has been, for good reason, mostly focused on foreign extremist groups, but recent events raise questions of whether there should be greater focus in the United States on far-right, domestic extremist threats. These extremists represent a unique danger because of their prevalence in federal institutions such as the military and the potential that they might infiltrate nuclear facilities, where they could access sensitive information and nuclear materials.

[…]

This pattern of insider threats raises key questions: How many violent far-right extremists are in the government? What materials or information do violent far-right extremists in government have access to? Are they sophisticated enough to steal nuclear material or sabotage a nuclear facility, or aid another actor on the outside? To what extent have violent far-right extremists penetrated organizations like national laboratories or nuclear material production facilities, where they might be able to acquire highly-enriched uranium or plutonium—the building blocks for constructing an improvised nuclear device?

[…]

A robust response to violent far-right extremist threats vis-a-vis nuclear security is necessary to minimize risk. Violent far-right extremists are not going away: The instability and chaos of the COVID-19 era combined with increased political polarization and dwindling trust in long-standing institutions suggests that the problem of right-wing extremist terror is likely to grow in coming years.[25] Moreover, there is evidence that this threat is growing in other countries with nuclear facilities.[26] If a violent far-right extremist gained access to nuclear materials or weapons, the consequences would be catastrophic. Improved data collection, redesigned screening and insider protection systems, and diversity and equity initiatives all can help governments and private companies to better understand and mitigate risks to nuclear security posed by violent far-right extremists.

Clive Robinson • January 18, 2021 7:34 PM

@ xcv,

I fell off my bicycle in Northern Sweden after being served some kind of apple juice with more than the legally permitted limit of alcohol content for a non-alcoholic beverage

We see similar in the UK from time to time.

The reason is names have different meanings to different people.

For some reason I’ve never realy bothered to get to the bottom of in the US “Cider” is seen as the equivalent to “fresh pressed apple juice” or “apple juice in cartons”.

In the UK “apple juice” is “apple juice” and “cider” well that is a whole barrel of something else… It is “fermented apple juice” often it is served “sparkling” which should give you a clue (unless you drink Appletize). It’s usually got an alcohol content up around the same as stronger largers, especially “sweet cider” that has a very beguiling taste especially if chilled and if highly glugable.

However there is a version that is not sparkling is often cloudy and may have “scrumpy” on the label. Scrumpy is rather more alcoholic than many beers. It is also known to have an odd effect on some people… That is unlike beer it does not attack your brain first and make you “dippsy” but insyead goes for your knees. Thus you can be sitting there having drunk as little as a pint (20floz in UK not 16) and feel fine till you try to stand up when you find your legs feel numb in a simillar way to when your legs have “gone to sleep” due to lack of blood (but before the pins and needles sets in). But that numbness also means “lack of control” and even leaning against a door frame and hanging on for dear life won’t stop you sliding into a spread leg or similar sitting position, feeling otherwise sober and deeply deeply embarrassed as those a little more wise take sympathy on you and help you gently back to a seat.

Oh a word of warning, scrumpy whilst not a “whole food” can form a major food source for some but it can if you do not take care when you make it disolve things[1]… It’s why I use it when marinating and cooking pork, like pinapple juice it has a tenderising effect. Oh and fresh apple juice is also a mainline inctedient when I make preserves like jams, due to the very high pectin value (but don’t use apple juice from a carton, they offten add an enzime to the mash to break the cell walls down to get more juice out the enzime desyroys the pectin).

Oh and the French distill their version of “cidré” / scrumpy, and it makes a spirit called “Calvados”. It is in effect a “brandy” and can be single or double distilled. Some have such a high alcohol content that it was used in the armaments industry during world war one.

Whilst “hot distilling” is not alowed in the UK unless you have an Excise permit, there is another way you can take the water out and that is by alowing it to freeze slowly on cold winter nights and knocking the ice off in the morning, then filtering it. Unlike scrumpy this goes straight for your brain like a “heat seeking zombie missile” and then does what a zombie supposadly does best… Only unlike a movie zombie attack you do get to stand up in the morning eventually 😉

[1] Also if you are not careful about how you get the juice out of the apple, it can contain measurable amounts of cyanide from the pits/pips in the core (apple seeds). You can also make the easiest of all vinegars with apples, just cut three apples up and put it in a sterial glass jar and cover with clean filtered water, weigh down with a clean stone with a sandwich baggie otherwise the fruit will rot not ferment. Then put a boild chease cloth over the top put in the kitchen or other warm and dark place and wait about two to three weeks or so depending on the weather. Then using only clean sterilised plastic utensils strain the remaining fruit bits out and put the cloth back on top, twice a week stir it and after a couple of weeks taste it every time you stir it, when it’s as acidic as you like, filter it into sterile stoppered bottle where the lack of oxygen will stop it fermenting further.

If you have a scalp sensitive to the alkalinity in shampoos you can wash your hair in cider vinegar which is acidic due to the acetic acid, so redressing the pH balance. You actually end up with nicer hair as well. Like all vinegars you can use it for cleaning not just items but cuts and wounds as well just dilute it with between one and two times the volume of vinegar with distilled or kettle boiled and cooled water. Oh and it makes a good toffee for toffee apple time in Autumn.

Non Compos Mentis • January 18, 2021 7:57 PM

@xcv
“but the hospital refused to admit me for lack of verifiable insurance coverage”

So you were traveling overseas without verifiable medical insurance, and expecting the local medical facilities to patch you up, no questions asked?

Words fail me.

No wonder they didn’t want to touch you. No verifiable medical insurance, no accessible medical history, from a land with a nasty habit of litigating at the drop of a hat or the sneeze of a cat …

And you learnt nothing from the experience?

xcv • January 18, 2021 10:13 PM

@Clive Robionson

We see similar in the UK from time to time.

Good old boys with a cider press and an apple orchard out in the woods. No different from my own hometown either.

JonKnowsNothing • January 18, 2021 10:21 PM

@Non Compos Mentis @xcv @Clive @All

re:No Insurance Card? Same results in the USA

xcv sort of omitted that the exact same thing would happen in the USA.

You need proof of insurance, either military or policy type insurance card (TRICARE), a corporation health plan ID (requires the servicing hospital or provider to be part of the that health care network) or government plan (medicare) or government provided plans through the state (medicaid) or privately purchased plan (very few have this option).

In California we have uninsured hospitals where the homeless or those who have no insurance go. These are large facilities and are funded by the State. They are not free; if you have insurance, they will require payment. They are not free from costs because taxpayers pay for them. These same taxpayers refuse to “get a better deal” by insurance policies so we all pay together.

Duty of care would be: If you are breathing and not in imminent danger of dying you will not get any treatment without proof of insurance or you can go sit in the DropDeadClinic at the County Hospitals (Counties in the USA are responsible for public health).

Regional hospitals are often the same ones dealing with gun shot wounds and are Level 1 Trauma Centers. Most of these are currently filled with COVID-19 patients.

If you fall off you biker and are not wearing a bike helmet you cannot expect too much sympathy. It is required for non-adults and recommended for adults. Some cities have mandatory bike helmets for riding in public parks and public bike paths.

Unlike falling off your bike drunk, getting run over by a cyclist blowing through a red light and nailing you in the pedestrian path will get the victim a trip to the hospital, broken legs and all. Although you still need proof of insurance to get treatment.

The cyclist can expect a lawsuit, criminal charges and a load of bother for running the red light.

@8 weeks, @3 months rehab, and wheelchair for the duration.

ht tps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tricare

ht tps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trauma_center#Level_I
(url fractured to prevent autorun)

xcv • January 18, 2021 10:56 PM

@JonKnowsNothing

Duty of care would be:

The good doctor is going to save your life in an emergency if you have your insurance card, identification, and paperwork in order at the time of emergency, but if not, then the doctor will not take any immediate lifesaving measures.

What are you smoking? What kind of drugs are you doing here? Unless you have a top-notch corporate healthcare plan, and your boss is in agreement with the doctor to get you back on the job, coverage is mental health only in the United States.

The doctor gets a lawyer and a judge to revoke your rights, have you committed to the psychiatric ward, and then you are deemed a social undesirable, and adjudicated as a mental defective for the rest of your life if you ever visit a hospital. It goes straight on your FBI criminal record as a felony, no way out, no way to defend against it at the time.

SpaceLifeForm • January 19, 2021 3:05 AM

@ Goat, Winter

@Goat wrote:

“Freedom is about ethics while open source is about business sense.”

@Winter wrote:

“Copyright licenses are about law. FLOSS is about the use of licenses. Whether a developer uses the GNU GPL or MIT license tells us nothing at all about the morality or ethics of this developer.”

(adjusting my tin foil developer hat)

Here is how I look at it. I will use both GPL and MIT licensed source code and respect the licenses. And mix the two. There is no reason to not respect the licenses. None. Zero. Nada. Zilch.

The key to me is that I can compile from source, and have a copy of the source. And be able to redistribute the source. It is extremely important to have reproducible builds.

I will build my toolchain from source three times inside a chroot. This is not a fast effort. Takes many hours.

You read that right. Three times, I will compile the compiler, my libc, and binutils. Three times. If the third toolchain does not match the second toolchain, I know I have a bad toolchain somewhere. There is no point continuing on building any other userland software.

I start the chroot environment with a static busybox, a static bash, and a static toolchain (gcc, libc, binutils), all built outside the chroot on an assumed untrustable host. A skeleton root filesystem, and some scripts. And gigs of source code. I build make, coreutils, etc. I rebuild the bash, busybox, gcc, libc, binutils inside the chroot and toss the originals because they were built outside of the chroot. I eventually get my chroot to a point where everything was compiled inside.

Then I do it all over again. And once more.

The point is: I have to have the source to be able to do this.

But, it has nothing to do with business sense. Nothing.

It is about the freedom. And the fact that I can distribute this work while respecting the licenses.

Winter • January 19, 2021 3:29 AM

@Space
“It is about the freedom. And the fact that I can distribute this work while respecting the licenses.”

And is that reason enough to demonize the OSI or GNU project? And on what grounds?

Clive Robinson • January 19, 2021 3:56 AM

@ Lawrence, JonKnowsNothing, SpaceLifeForm, Winter, ALL,

could there be some confusion between reinfections and readdmissions?

Whilst that might have happened in the early part of last year due to no reliable tests and only sketchy symptoms to diagnose COVID against in the UK, it’s unlikely to have happened after reliable tests were in use.

I’ve been looking for a copy of the report by Professor Kamlesh Khunti of the University of Leicester and only just found it[1] but have not yet read it. But whilst he is one of the leading specialists in the world with over 750 published papers to his credit I do need to sound the obligatory note of caution. As I understand it the paper is still “pre publish” and not yet a “peer-reviewed” paper which is not a critique of the paper as I have not yet read it, nor is it a critique of the author. What we need to remember is there have been quite a lot of pre-published papers from all over the world with respect to COVID due to the urgency of getting research findings out into care provider and policy makers hands. However many did not go on to be published, some were withdrawn, a few had faults found, and one or two discredited. It is just the way of the world, and while annoying and delaying it might be, peer-review is important.

That caution sounded I have however found a UK newspaper[2] and a US newspaper[3] neither of which are behind a pay wall and both give the figures a little more precisely,

https://metro.co.uk/2021/01/18/one-in-eight-recovered-covid-patients-die-within-140-days-13920415/

And it would appear it’s not one third, but a little under 3 in 10 at 29.4% which if you are in the ~4% difference means you are still alive but probably not as well as you would like to be.

But whilst it sounds alarming when you do the math it is less so. It’s 29.4% of 47,780 people, which is just 14,047 patients being readmitted and the little under one in eight or 12.3% fatalities whilst sad and disheartening is 5877 people. Which when compared to the more than 93,000 COVID related deaths in the UK is small at about one in sixteen (~6%). It is 1 in 11.6k in the UK population or about 8.6 per 100,000, or 0.0086%.

Now compare that to the 5% case fatality rate expected with no healthcare provision for COVID sufferers which is what it could become if healthcare gets saturated[4].

From what I can gather these patients with Long COVID are those that were not just hospitalized but probably ended up in ICU and have some form of systemic organ failure (heart, pancreas, liver) and have ended up with the likes of diabetes though supprisingly there is uncertainty as to if it’s Type I (beta cell death) or that they have somehow been pushed into Type II (insulin resistance).

Sadly I’m not that surprised, as I’ve commented several times this systemic organ failure and potential for autoimmune disease is a major concern. Because there are a number of long term chronic diseases such as Diabetes, Cancer, and Hepatic failure, that appear to be strongly correlated with viral infections from upto decades before. The question under investigation prior to SARS-CoV-2 was the usual “Causation or Correlation?” question, with the balance of evidence certainly saying very strong correlation at a minimum crossing over to causation in some chronic diseases.

As an immunodeficient person due to botched surgery that has damaged my lymphatic system, and with a potentialy viral induced autoimmune disease, and atleast two other significant risk factors, you can appreciate why I’m keeping a weather eye on both Long COVID and the clinical measures taken with respect to SARS-2 treatment, as well as acting like an uber-hermit. It’s also the reason I will not have an mRNA based injection, as I’ve been saying for some time, though I’d be happy to go down the modified adenovirus route as modified adenovirus vaccines have a long well established safety record and work in a very different way to the mRNA injections which have something like a four decade failed to get out of the lab record thus no official established –peer reviewed and published– safety data short or long term. Just leaked data that there are claims “anti-vaxers have modified” and now indications of systemic shock in the elderly and frail from Norway and I suspect if valid other places as well.

[1] The pre-print,
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.15.21249885v1.full.pdf

Prof Khunti’s professional profile,
https://le.ac.uk/research/experts/professor-kamlesh-khunti

[2] It’s from the Metro, that is closely associated with the print version of the Daily Mail. The Mail is a newspaper famed for it’s “blue rinse readership” of the “grand dames who luncheon” variety and more importantly creating health scare type stories. So “caution is advised”.

[3] You can find figutes in the NY Post “red top”,

https://nypost.com/2021/01/18/1-in-8-recovered-covid-19-patients-die-within-5-months-study/

[4] Apparently acording to the NY Post, Los Angeles has a new claim to notoriety as the first US county with a million COVID infections under it’s belt,

https://nypost.com/2021/01/17/los-angeles-becomes-first-county-to-hit-1-million-covid-19-cases/

And it’s healthcare system is not just under sever stress it is mostly saturated already and the B.1.1.1.7 mutation that is atleast 55% more infectious has just turned up there to add to the woes…

To be brutally honest, I’m not at all surprised, nearly a year ago I predicted and said on this blog I expected California to be one of the worst hit areas in the US considering the social conditions of street people there. So what did suprise me was that they “dodged the bullet” in the first wave and I was trying to find out why my prediction was wrong… It would appear it was just a matter of timing.

Non Compos Mentis • January 19, 2021 4:26 AM

@xcv @JonKnowsNothing

What appalls me the most is that I had thought everybody from the travel agents to the consular authorities would’ve pushed for travel insurance even to the friendliest of neighbours. I would’ve thought @xcv would’ve got travel insurance, but apparently not. (shrugs) Not My Problem. (There is that saying: fail to plan, plan to fail. And with that, I have nothing further to say on the matter.)

Goat • January 19, 2021 4:50 AM

And on what grounds?

Did you try the site search for facebook on both… I understand this isnt osi’s sin but you see what the difference is clearly. The gnu foundation stands for morality, privacy and what not..OSI doesnt seem to care.

Gnu talks about malfeatures osi doesnt.

I hope you start seeing the difference. It isnt about licenses, most opensource licenses are declared gpl compliant or free.

Btw demonising is a strong word.

Goat • January 19, 2021 5:05 AM

@Space..
Re: But, it has nothing to do with business sense. Nothing

First stop this MIT confusion, the MIT license its not a non free license http://directory.fsf.org/wiki/License:Expat. If it was you would probably not be allowed to get the source(not that you need to respect that)

You make an amazing point, I would be a fool if I said that opensource isn’t better than proprietary software.. Infact mostly the software is just as good in practice sans the ideals

Opensource is an Idea that helps seperate the Idea of freedom from software, I can tell you an avg joe knows nothing about free software or thinks it is same as open source.. Tbey think linux is an os, and do not understand the purposes of the movement that stands for their rights

Winter • January 19, 2021 5:43 AM

@Goat
“Did you try the site search for facebook on both…”

I am not on facebook, never visit it.

OSI sells the idea of FLOSS to businesses, GNU tries to sell Freedom to the masses. They both have their audiences and their SOPs. The intention of both side is to increase freedom for the masses. Both sides have strange, US specific, ideas about Utopia that I do not share.

@Goat
“Btw demonising is a strong word.”

I have read “descriptions” about each other from both sides that make me chose “demonizing” as the word.

Curious • January 19, 2021 7:30 AM

I am listenting to a presentation by Edward Frenkel in Sweden on youtube (July 2019 lecture), and at some point he mentions that randomly made passwords is made by a random number generator, and also that if you can hack into the number generator, they don’t just get one password they get all of them. I thought that was interesting. I ofc, would never have used an automatically generated password. NIST’s ‘dual elliptic curve deterministic RGB (dual_EC_DRGB).

For a moment I got this confused with a password manager in a browser, but he was talking about automatically generated passwords in browsers (or to be specific Google Chrome).

Even in 1080p I can’t read the damn slides in the video which is a shame.

“Mathematics as a Unifying Field: Edward Frenkel”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzFGroo_AXA (starts at around 42 min in)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dual_EC_DRBG

Goat • January 19, 2021 7:31 AM

Re:”I am not on facebook, never visit it.”
Same!!

@Winter

I said site search for the word facebook on these sites using any search engine eg. Duckduckgo

Osi sells FOSS not FLOSS, but I get your point.. It may look like a tug war at times(these people have spent their lives on these fundamentals)

Winter • January 19, 2021 8:00 AM

@Goat
“I said site search for the word facebook on these sites using any search engine eg. Duckduckgo”

Missed that. But the OSI sponsor page is telling in itself. GNU.org nor FSF have sponsor pages as far as I can see.

Goat • January 19, 2021 9:08 AM

Re:”I have read “descriptions” about each other from both sides that make me chose “demonizing” as the word.”

Sorry Readers 🙁 Cant help but reply

@Winter,

The official definition of “open source software” (which is published by the Open Source Initiative and is too long to include here) was derived indirectly from our criteria for free software. It is not the same; it is a little looser in some respects. Nonetheless, their definition agrees with our definition in most cases.

This is mostly a war on words, free software carries a meaning that opensource doesn’t. The descriptions dont seem as vague, and OSI never even criticised the term free software. You are mixing copyleft and free software probably.

Winter • January 19, 2021 9:12 AM

@Goat
“I didnt find any osi article in free software share it if you find one.”

I think the rants that I detested most were those what you found on Occupy GPL (now only in the web archive):

The GPL is not a free license. It restricts freedoms only to people it deems to be morally acceptable. Often there are people who do not fall inside this morally acceptable box, yet they do really have good intentions.
https://web.archive.org/web/20150210203941/http://www.occupygpl.org/

However, I also came across them in individual (Libertarian?) discussion groups.

Winter • January 19, 2021 9:13 AM

@Goat
“This is mostly a war on words, free software carries a meaning that opensource doesn’t. ”

Which is exactly why I prefer to use FLOSS.

Goat • January 19, 2021 9:16 AM

@Winter, you are free to use whatever term you like, I am a poet I value wars on words a lot. 😉

Clive Robinson • January 19, 2021 10:28 AM

@ curious,

I ofc, would never have used an automatically generated password.

So what would you use to get the equivelent of 128bits of entropy?

Which is about what you need these days if you want the password / phrase to be secure for the next couple of decades on the likes of a password manager that gets backed up.

SpaceLifeForm • January 19, 2021 5:45 PM

@ Winter, Clive

Just to be clear here, I am not the one to demonize the OSI or GNU project.

I have no problem with either.

I never created any MIT confusion.

I will respect the licenses.

Goat • January 19, 2021 7:05 PM

@Spacelifeform I misinterpreted your statements 🙁

Winter was confused about the Expat(MIT) license’s free status not you.

Demonizing was used for war on free vs opensource by the two camps not you.

Keep respecting the licenses 🙂

Goat • January 19, 2021 7:13 PM

@Winter this occupy GPL thing has nothing to do with OSI or GNU I got the point that you are talking about these permissive license vs copyleft extrimists..But free software vs opensource has NOTHING to do with it.. NOTHING!!

Winter • January 20, 2021 12:46 AM

@Goat
“Winter was confused about the Expat(MIT) license’s free status not you.”

That too is a misunderstanding. The OSI list of licenses are all FLOSS. All these licenses are Free, Libre, and Open Source

My only point is/was arguments along the lines “Open Source is evil because the movement advocates against copyleft” and “The Open Source movement compromises the growth of FREE software” versus “MIT is MORE FREE than GPL” and “Copyleft is an evil virus which tries to enslave developers and destroy businesses”.

The whole argument is stupid.

Goat • January 20, 2021 1:42 AM

@Winter +1

Re:The whole argument is stupid.

This is a case of chronic miscommunication on my part.

See Richard Stallmand and gnu in general is more copyleft but not extremists, At times even Stallman has suggested to use permissive licenses

Re:Open Source is evil because the movement advocates against copyleft

Even free software can be non-copyleft and opensource can be copyleft. Copyleft vs Copyfree is completely different from opensource vs free software.

Re:“The Open Source movement compromises the growth of FREE software”

See this argument is misinterpreted by you(or me). There are two things here:

1) The Word Communication: Free software WORD carries with it ideas of freedom that Opensource doesnt that is what Opensource vs free is about

2) Nothing else

Goat • January 20, 2021 1:46 AM

You arr against copyleft vs copyfree

On that I would like to say:

Copyleft solves the problem of tragedy of the commons and nothing else. Permissive licenses have been used by GNU and even OSI has contributed to copyleft projects. Please dont blame them for extremists fault.

Winter • January 20, 2021 2:02 AM

@Goat
“You arr against copyleft vs copyfree”

Communication is difficult when you start from different backgrounds.

It seems I have not been able to communicate my ideas.

I have no arguments against “copyleft vs copyfree”. I prefer Copyleft for my own work, but that is on the level I prefer coffee in the morning over tea. I have no opinions on people who decide differently.

What I do have negative opinions on are people who claim the “other side” is the enemy. Many of these controversies are USA specific, and these are the reason Europeans prefer to simply say FLOSS (the original subject of this thread). Just to indicate they take no side in this silly debate.

Evil is in the people who use the licenses. I know that many companies reject copyleft for various reasons that are either simply not true (FUD) or because they want to lock-in their users (e.g., Apple). I also know of companies that have used the GPL as a tool for extortion (e.g., MySQL).

Goat • January 20, 2021 3:40 AM

@Winter, I would summarise my stance as follows:

  • I prefer “free software” term since it communicates Ideas of free as in freedom.
    (and this is unrelated to Copyleft)
  • Copyfree is sometimes useful, especially for small programs, even I have used it in the past… While Copyleft does encourage(force) businesses to contribute to free software

My problem with your stance is that your arguments stand against people who make copyleft vs copyfree life and death matters(i.e. extermists), but my point was the term free software is better than opensource and FLOSS is a term that dilutes the effect of opensource(Not a thing to do with copyleft)

Maybe My non-native English Background has caused some miscommunication. I hope I am clearer.

Clive Robinson • January 20, 2021 3:51 AM

@ ALL,

More on the FCC notice to radio operators.

It’s caused a bit of a “sitting up” in the US Ham Radio world.

Broadly it falls into three groups,

1, Whoa, it was not us
2, The FCC had to say something
3, Here’s how stuff can be done

Kind of covering all three is,

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MqZhGi3SEz8

Importantly it mentions “if you do stuff” this is what those in authority can do about it, so don’t think you are secure etc.

This is a more interseting video,

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=J42n9FXV8Gc

It’s a high level “how stuff can be done” in reaction to the same point I’ve made here about people not thinking about the fact the Internet whilst treated by users as a public playground, it is in realy not public in the slightest.

That is it’s all owned privately from the physical layer up and they can throw you off any time they like.

The vidio shows you can set up your own high bandwidth radio network for data. Whilst it lacks the very high bandwidth “back haul” that makes “mobile broadband” work it is more than servicable as a high bandwidth link or mobile broadband cell,

It shows an AREDN “Amateur Radio Emergency Data Network” that uses TCP/IP and fairly standard data interfaces that he has set up in a remote rural area, that has a radio link over several miles to an urban area where it connects to the Internet that he has accessed whilst deployed in both Europe and South America. But he could just as easily have “back to back” connected to another radio link much as telecommunications companirs did before fiber optic cables gave bandwidths the radio spectrum can not sensibly alow.

In the video he mentions looking at Packet Radio, this is an AX25 system that is known more broadly as APRS “Amateur Packet Radio Service” which you can buy two way radios that have it as a function, which you can set up and use like an SMS service if you wish to. You can also use it for Email and much else we used to do on the Internet before “social neyworking” sucked peoples brains into mush…

Many people see Ham Radio like some old foggies playing around with gloryfied CB radio. Whilst there are some like that there are others pushing the bounds on what can be done with technology at the cutting edge. I still do the cutting edge stuff myself for the fun of it, and to keep my skills current.

But everything on the video, can be done by anybody who has a first year undergraduate understanding of networking and a second year engineering understanding of radio systems or has spent six months to a couple of years in Ham Radio getting to know people who do the cutting edge stuff and mucking in.

Winter • January 20, 2021 4:04 AM

@Goat
“Maybe My non-native English Background has caused some miscommunication. I hope I am clearer.”

This is a background we share. And the term Free Software is nice, until you notice that most people immediately think “gratis software”.

Hence the term “Libre Software”.

Winter • January 20, 2021 4:09 AM

@Clive
“AREDN “Amateur Radio Emergency Data Network” that uses TCP/IP”

I am pretty confident that anyone who uses this to carry communications intended to help organize an armed uprising will not be protected by Section 230.

That is, they will likely be prosecuted as conspirators in the uprising.

Goat • January 20, 2021 4:31 AM

Yeah, In India people dont known libre so I use swatantra software. We can all use our language specific phrases

Winter • January 20, 2021 5:30 AM

An example of a “supply chain” attack:

2 Guard members made extremist statements about inauguration
Also, in Trojan Horse style,

But the FBI has also warned law enforcement officials about the possibility that right-wing fringe groups could pose as members of the National Guard, according to two law enforcement officials familiar with the matter.

…

Over the summer, a man was arrested in Los Angeles for impersonating a National Guard member during protests in the city near Los Angeles City Hall. The man, Gregory Wong, was carrying a sidearm and assault rifle but was taken into custody after actual Guardsmen confronted him when they noticed things out of place on his uniform.

https://villagevoicenews.com/2021/01/19/2-guard-members-made-extremist-statements-about-inauguration/

Clive Robinson • January 20, 2021 6:55 AM

@ Winter,

I am pretty confident that anyone who uses this to carry communications intended to help organize an armed uprising will not be protected by Section 230.

The CDA §230 specifically says it does not have primacy over Federal crimes.

The problem is what is and is not a Federal Crime?

Now it’s been said that the current POTUS will leave the Whitehouse at 8AM this morning.

If he did not go at 8AM would some one who said “he should be removed” be committing a federal Crime?

Technically yes, he’s still POTUS untill the President Elect becomes POTUS which happens after the oath of office some time around mid day[1].

So he could be delayed signing another hundred pardons this morning…

[1] It’s as daft as the old “god head” idea about monarchs. The theory is there always has to be a god head, it only moves on the instance the current monarch dies and it instantly transfers to the new monarch… But in reality the new monarch only gets the job after the crown is set upon their head, if they can keep it on their shoulders long enough. Now ask a theologian about what happens to the god head if the rightfull heir does not die, but does not get crowned either as somebody else does? It instantly becomes a “Turtles all the way down” problem if you call them on the “God is all seeing and all knowing” excuse. I know it’s a cruel thing to do but they did take the stipend/salary.

Winter • January 20, 2021 7:13 AM

@Clive
“If he did not go at 8AM would some one who said “he should be removed” be committing a federal Crime?”

I seriously doubt this. Americans can say such things with impunity.

However, if someone would send specific instructions for people committing an armed attack at a specific place, that would be different. Also calling for armed violence at the Capitol of state X would most likely be prosecuted.

Winter • January 20, 2021 8:40 AM

@Goat, Clive
“Section 230 even if twisted interpretation ”

I think it starts with HAM radio AREDN “Amateur Radio Emergency Data Network” is not protected under Section 230. If you supply such services to militant groups, you have no legal cover.

Winter • January 20, 2021 9:31 AM

Parler still dreams of a full return, for the time being in Russia. They want an American service provider but are currently shunned like the plague. I think that in the end, they will have to move off-shore where there are companies that are more friendly to the kind of speech Parler wants to transmit. Actually, probably companies that do not care what you do as long as someone pays the bills.

But a Free Speech Activist working under the protection of Vlad Novichok [1] (Putin) is ironic, to say the least.

Parler Tries to Survive With Help From Russian Company

But the use of a Russian company is worrying some researchers who study the internet and Russia. If Parler routes its web traffic through DDoS-Guard when its full website returns, the experts said, Russian law could enable the Russian government to surveil Parler’s users.

…

Jeffrey Wernick, Parler’s chief operating officer, said in an interview that the concerns were overblown because DDoS-Guard supported only a temporary webpage for Parler. He said Parler would try to find other companies to operate its full social network.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/19/technology/parler-russian-company.html

[1] I want to restart a long tradition of ruling Vlads with descriptive nicknames, e.g., Vlad Tepes (1428/31 – 1476/77).

Winter • January 20, 2021 9:40 AM

@Winter
“[1] I want to restart a long tradition of ruling Vlads with descriptive nicknames”

I was too late, there is already a nickname: Vlad Otravitel’ Putin (влад отравитель)

Clive Robinson • January 20, 2021 11:44 AM

@ Winter,

Parler still dreams of a full return, for the time being in Russia.

I could say “Oh the irony” but there is something deliciously piquant about that.

I guess the question is “Will Jeffrey Wernick’s boss swallow that bitter pill or not?”

But if Parler does go “off shore” as it looks like they probably will do, then FISA Court rules apply and all those MAGAtics will be subject to scrutiny on the egress and ingress of their little thoughts…

Mind you with the German elections in the Summer and the crazy still going in France, they could throw a cat in the sack of pigeons by going to one of “the 26 Counties” of Éire. The new POTUS apparently does not like the high tech anomaly and want’s it squashed.

Czerno • January 20, 2021 1:40 PM

@Winter, re :
«there is already a nickname: Vlad Otravitel’ Putin (влад отравитель)»

Calling unbased calumny !

Clive Robinson • January 20, 2021 3:55 PM

@ Winter,

I thought it was “Vlad pishevoe otravitel” in London.

But then my ears are not what they once were.

Winter • January 20, 2021 4:13 PM

@Clive
“I thought it was “Vlad pishevoe otravitel” in London

You probably heard something along the lines of:
Vlad pishchevoye otravleniye
(влад пищевое отравление).

Due to progress, you do not have to eat or drink anymore.

SpaceLifeForm • January 20, 2021 4:22 PM

@ Clive ALL

bbbbzzzzttt

Producer voice: We apologize for the 4 year disruption. We now return you to your regularly scheduled program.

Breathe deep

I will now return to my previously planned conspiracy to burn my MyPillow that was given to me by a racist, fascist, brainwashed idiot.

Truth: A MyPillow is the worst pillow ever. Worthless crap. A rolled bath towel is much more comfortable.

I’m not even going to look inside to find the evidence of the money laundering operation.

I have petrol. The MyPillow is going down.

I will save my fireworks.

SpaceLifeForm • January 20, 2021 4:48 PM

@ ALL

If you know someone that got sucked into the Qanon/Fox/Facebook cult, just be aware that they are just now figuring it out that they were lied to for years.

Do not rub it in. Help them. As best you can. It will not be easy.

Clive Robinson • January 20, 2021 5:52 PM

@ SpaceLifeForm,

Do not rub it in. Help them. As best you can. It will not be easy.

Communications is a two way street, and you have to start a journey to get somewhere and seek direction along the way. Likewise forgiveness, to get somewhere other than where you are you have to start a journey. Dialog and engagement are the lifting forward and placing of the feet for both communications and forgiveness.

South Africa started “Truth and reconciliation” as it’s road to the future, there are lessons for everyone in that.

But are we sure the politicians want what the people want?

Clive Robinson • January 20, 2021 6:09 PM

@ Winter,

I was told it ment “poisoner of food” after someone sprayed polonium around in a food bar.

JonKnowsNothing • January 20, 2021 10:01 PM

@All

re:USA COVID-19 support payments v2

After the nail biting weeks of waiting for a peaceful transition of power, amid pictures of people rampaging their way up stairs and over balconies and doing various versions of smash-n-grab… we now arrive at COVID-19 stimulus payments version 2 (currently $600 USD for those eligible).

So, it’s not going all that well and it’s going better than expected.

  • Some folks have no hiccups and the funds arrived direct deposit as expected
  • Some folks have their funds being deposited into the bank accounts of large tax preparation businesses, who offer pre-return-advance-loans (at interest) and take the actually return amounts directly into their own bank. (These are the bank accounts on-file at the Internal Revenue Service)
  • Some banks are keeping the funds sent to closed or dormant accounts.
  • Some folks got a check
  • Some folks got a debit card. From an odd bank, with not much info and a long list of transaction fees. Want to buy a loaf of bread? $3/transaction.
  • Some folks have to enter their bank account information at the IRS webpage, even though they got C19$v1 aok.
  • Some folks have to re-enter their banking information at the IRS because the IRS is confused as to which bank you used between 2018-2020, even if you used the same bank for 40 years.
  • Some folks have to register online to get the debit card activated, you have give your SSN, address, etc etc to get the activation.
  • Some folks have to create 2 accounts on-line: one for the debit card and one to transfer the value to your real bank.
  • The cards, letters, envelope look like a SCAM
  • Some cards, letters, envelopes ARE a SCAM
  • Some folks are shredding them because they look SCAMMY
  • Some folks tossed it in the rubbish because the envelope has no details on it
  • If you didn’t get one, or lost it or shredded it you can get a replacement for a hefty fee.
  • the IRS website says “Do Not Call Us, We Don’t Know Anything About it”.

I’m pretty sure we can come up with more ways to create a poorer system. Maybe it can be a contest: How to misdirect economic support funds?

It could be a a good intro-project on Internet Elite Entitlement Bias in System Design.

Winter • January 21, 2021 12:18 AM

@Clive
“I was told it ment “poisoner of food” after someone sprayed polonium around in a food bar.”

Google translate says that “food poisoner” is translated as:
pishchevoy otravitel (пищевой отравитель)

That would sound as you remember.

Winter • January 21, 2021 12:31 AM

@Jon
“So, it’s not going all that well and it’s going better than expected.”

I pity Americans whenever the subject of money transfers and banks comes up.

Winter • January 21, 2021 2:04 AM

@Space
“Do not rub it in. Help them. As best you can. It will not be easy.”

I would find it difficult to do so, but you are right.

Qanon is not your random conspiracy theory, but one of the vilest I have encountered. On the other hand, it pushed the deepest buttons in the human mind: Children. So, I assume many of the “victims” were sucked in by their best intentions.

But that was also how the Spanish Inquisition worked, one of the cruelest institutions in human history, who burned people alive to save their souls.

I have looked at some websites documenting their anxiety. It is epic.

MarkH • January 21, 2021 2:09 AM

@Winter, Clive:

Some years ago, I was impressed by encountering the assertion that when Putin travels, he always brings his own foodstuffs and cooks with him.

If you see an image of Putin at a state dinner, he is eating a different meal from all of the other attendees.

Quite the charmer, he. And now his special friend has lost influence …

Goat • January 21, 2021 2:53 AM

@Winter, Space, All

Conspiracy theories are a competitive market, it is inevitable that the most effective Survive. But we can do things to make the response less effective:

  • Trust in the media: The media doesn’t do things that can foster trust, This is also due to the internet business models that define “impressions” as clicks.
  • Walled Gardens: Everyone of these people are livingin their own walled gardens,algo censored to suit their beliefs.
  • Dying Newspapers: Yes!! News changes(order atleast) to fill the needs of the medium. Video encourages rage and arousing content, Screens Skimming.. Newspapers are a lot more thoghtful medium for news, but they are dying with the rise of facebook.
  • Even Anti-Conspiracy theorists are at fault: We(Including me) often call these people names this leads to them feeling more like a saviour of the people, and grow, wildly spreading the disease

Winter • January 21, 2021 3:51 AM

@Goat
“But we can do things to make the response less effective:”

All true. You can attack the individual points, but the root problem I see is that society has served them badly.

On every front, they were betrayed by the politicians they voted for, and by the civil servants who should serve them.

In the big picture, median household income has stalled since 1980, while everyone is putting in more hours. Doctors prescribed pain-killers that killed more people than COVID has yet killed. Good education is out of reach for most kids.

These facts alone would feed a lot of distrust.

Serious Observer • January 21, 2021 6:33 AM

If privileges must be earned, why do we pit this concept against that of being disadvantaged? By default, it is no secret that a certain level of responsibility must be attached to the notion of reward. Nothing would get done, if this were not the case. Seems simple enough, no? Despite being apparent in something as generic as raising a child (one of the most notorious prerequisites required for economic involvement, inscribed within our genetic coding, simultaneously natural and artificial) this primitive teleological force has not yet proven itself to be anything less than crucial to the sustenance of complexity.

Reward becomes, when revolutionized as a modal alterity, a mechanism geared towards the calibration of worth. Facilitated by acquisition, we objectify our desires. Whether this is a flimsy representation or the only possible truth is up for debate. Either way, the prescriptive template here remains tragically unavoidable and therefore, static. Both the theories pivoted around exchange and the movement of exchange as a revolving amphitheater, are reliant on wires enmeshed in the transposition of reward and worth.

In an epoch where the token for the overall contemporaneous structure of a piece of history is a paved by the synergy progression and destruction share, I must ask the reader to forgive my transgressive mention here of necessity. Not merely as an effort to eschew (pardon the irony) the need for radical action, as the concept is most commonly applied, but as a way to highlight the significant role gaps in understanding play with respect to systems architecture.

Gaps are barriers.

They are on the one hand protective, and on the other limiting.

Gaps make for expansion by absorbing essences, thereby latticing patterns into comprehensive schema.

Why gaps? Well, we strive to fill these gaps as an attempt to escape necessity, which, at its most basic level, could be considered the digressive function responsible for the overcoming of disadvantage.

As the cognitive benefactors of evolution, we know that to account for all of the missing pieces would be ludicrous, and thus the infinity matrix was born. Not only do we know this, we are so desperate to ignore this pitfall that we have collectively fixated ourselves upon the flourishing of seamlessly integrated markets.

The nihilist and cynic would normally postulate at this point of the analysis that there is no exit. The absurdist goes a step further and skates the feedback loop. We must allow ourselves to be subsumed, at the cost of nothing. But what does this exactly entail? To give up means to stop this process, by amputating the gap from the essence. It’s a dualism so heavily concealed by the aesthetic plateau that is ‘cool’, the end of the line, the tolerance of death; that it goes unnoticed as anything other than an outlier conjunct to a certain type of sexy. Hopeless romance belongs to the weathered down idealist.

In reality, those who follow this modus operandi are so overwhelmed by dimensional transmigration that they allow themselves to be subversively unaware of the fact that they are steeped in the idea they have earned their position.

Now, this does not render those entrenched in this belief system undeserving of empathy. First thing that must be acknowledged, of course, is that we are all victims of cruelty because we have nerve endings and because our cells are subjugated to oxidization.

Everything rusts, except for the economy.

Even the machine is at the mercy of obsolescence. We shed the chain along, linked by the replacement of parts belonging to a bionic realm. Incompatibility is ingrained in us, yes, but incompatibility does not immediately imply severance or disconnection.

Nothing will ever move forward so long as we do not acknowledge our unity as a species fighting against the repression not of our desires but of the tendency to confuse desire with the pleasure of escaping our own victim-hood. This means giving up the idea of privilege as a state inherent to belonging to the status quo, which prides itself on being in a position extricated from chance. How many times have you heard the played out conservative mantra, ‘If you work hard enough..’?

Privilege was always accidental. First as an advantageous mistake, second as a disaster. Innocents were made to be crucified.

Instead of looking for solutions to oppression in the modulation of pre-existing frameworks, inevitably leading us to a paradox each time, we could instead try to platform the fabled nobility, lost to the blurring of the technocratic scroll, which rightfully belongs ascribed to striving in the face of adversary above the eradication of the Lacanian lack. The gap. Disadvantage, known in a Kantian sense as the restrictive aspects of the conditions of possibility, builds a character worth fighting for out of a person.

Our limbic systems are conditioned to find worth in comfort, and our fate as human beings with an advanced neo-cortex, is to recognize that we must one day succumb to disintegration. When looking at power taken in this sense, the antithetical and illusory prominence of the bourgeoisie transforms into a lampoon. True barbarism hides the importance of humility. This is what is meant by the meek shall inherit the earth.

Fertility • January 21, 2021 7:00 AM

@Winter

My mad insatiable lust for successful women can no longer be contained!

You would cry happy tears if you knew the importance of this divine sexual mission that I am on. The sheer force of my will is enough to drive back any sense of rational thinking, I am propelled forward by nothing but the turgid veins in my hungry peni&s.

I am a man on a mission, who will stop at nothing to get what I want. Your feeble dainty woman hands are nothing compared to my big strong man arms. I want your hole, your pulsating meat sheathe under the sheets. Your warm moist cavity of love and fertility.

I want nothing but to drive my Excalibur into your stone of love.

I am a changed man now, what was once my sex drive – comparable to a slate of white marble – had evolved into something akin to a badger in heat.

The honey badger doesn’t care.

I will destroy that vagin&a like it was the Death Star, and I was Luke Skywalker in a star fighter. In this new Eden that we shall create in this mortal plane from our fu&&ing. I shall be Adam, the indomitable male alpha sexual force, and you will be Eve, my exotic Asian sex queen

1&1~=Umm • January 21, 2021 8:15 AM

Winter:

An analysis of the cadence of the attack and the stylistic paragraph openings does indead suggest it is not of inteligent design.

That it is automated in some way is shown by the length of the posting and time stamp differences. Oh and that the error ratio is small.

We have seen this before.

@ Moderator,

This is not an attack on an individual blog poster but an attack on the blog it’s self.

The style used is very similar to those used in support of a certain group who have lost to a majority decision and seen the door close on them.

Unfortunately such pent up sense of powerlessness has to earth out.

So this attack was not unexpected and unfortunatly as with illness we can expect it to get worse before it gets better.

Winter • January 21, 2021 9:04 AM

@Goat
“@Winter, Our discussions probably attacked some Conspiracy Theorists, Such a vulgar thing has never happened before in these comment sections. 🙁”

We must be doing something right, then.

Winter • January 21, 2021 9:45 AM

@1
“It would appear that @Winterfall is either very ignorant”

Does it pass the Turing test?

Goat • January 21, 2021 9:58 AM

re:”Does it pass the Turing test?”

I bet he/she would, Satire isn’t as well attempted by bots until now.. 😉

@Moderator, My word filtering wouldn’t work they can put & in between.. & Waste their own time, since no one would read their comments.

QThePowerOf • January 21, 2021 10:24 AM

@Winter:

SS: Nearly 1000 people have died in America today from Covid under Joe Biden’s leadership. This is just terrible. He is personally responsible and has blood on his hands.

The conspiracy – see how Covid propaganda works? This exact statement was said over and over again for the last year – but with Trump instead of Biden.

Will this type of reporting continue?

1&1~=Umm • January 21, 2021 10:53 AM

Winter:

“Does it pass the Turing test?”

It obviously,

‘Does not pass the Trump test’

Of the ‘little boy’ lies.

That is it’s fakery does not even come close, to that of William “Fat Man” Barr esq’s tactic of moving the figures around untill they fit the appalling counterfactual narative you want to portray.

In fact, to do it so badly is not a very bright thing to do because other people can use the same very public domain information to show what a fake story it is they are trying to portray.

Goat:

Oh and no it’s neither satire or sarcasm, it’s just a cloacal outoouring that they are scattering about.

JonKnowsNothing • January 21, 2021 11:08 AM

@MarkH

re:brings his own foodstuffs and cooks

I dunno about P, but a lot of folks do bring their own foods and cooks (if they can afford them). They have a variety of reasons.

1, Religious – restricted diets (no animal protein)
2, Allergies – anaphylactic shock (peanut satay sauces)
3, Food Illnesses – avoiding road sickness (actors, singers, opera, politicians)
4, Personal Preference – specialty diets (Oprah traveled with a personal chef for health concerns)

iirc(badly) tl;dr

A documentary about an annual big deal event in the UK where the Queen and Family attend a lunch with 100s of important folks. It’s one of those Pomp and Circumstance deals that the UK excels at. It takes a year to set up for the event, and the next year plan starts the day after the event finishes.

During the documentary, you see all the background items that have to happen and the order in which things take place, like setting up the dinning table for 100s of diners with full service and complete set of flatware (something the USA rarely uses, fingers being much more functional than 10 folks and 6 spoons).

The part about the kitchen was intriguing. It’s all modern state of the art kitchen to produce the meal. The outward appearances are antique but inside it’s ultra modern. The chef discussed how they produce the meals and deliver all the plates hot from the kitchen and get it all served in the time allocated as everyone has to be somewhere else after the meal (1).

The chef explained that they each Royal has personal preferences and health requirements and the people who serve the meals have to be sure to get them the right plates.

Besides the Royal Family, some attendees also have health and diet restrictions and those plates have get to the right folks too.

It’s not just a point of taste but also a point of health.

1, They use wireless communications. Unfortunately there was a 20 minute delay and someone forgot to tell the chef to hold off. The chef said it happens and the diners didn’t notice. The Queen did.

Prelurk • January 21, 2021 11:41 AM

http://www.bio rxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.18.427166v1 – SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2 escapes neutralization by South African COVID-19 donor plasma

Security implications of this?

prelurk • January 21, 2021 11:45 AM

http://www.bio rxiv.org / content/10.1101/2021.01.18.427166v1 – SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2 escapes neutralization by South African COVID-19 donor plasma

Security implications of this?

(Reposted in case this got eaten by a spamfilter.)

Winter • January 21, 2021 12:26 PM

@Al
” We don’t borrow from China anymore.”

The reason is that China found a much better way to use their excess US dollars. China lends it’s dollars to the countries of the belt and roads initiative.

Instead of propping up the consumption and GDP of the USA, they are now using the dollars to propp up their influence in Asia and Africa (and Eastern Europe).

That seems to be the real reason the US is so mad at China.

Clive Robinson • January 21, 2021 12:54 PM

@ Prelurk,

Not having any joy with you URL.

However,

escapes neutralization by South African COVID-19 donor plasma

I suspect tells me what you are asking.

And yes “convalescent donor plasma” does not work on any people injected with it in UK hospitals under the Oxford “ReCoVer” trials either for which there is a peer reviewed paper.

Although formal studies have not been carried out as to why convalescent donor plasma has not worked (because such studies would now be unethical). It is probably due to the way SARS-CoV-2 in all it’s varients works.

As you probably know 20-30% of people infected are asymptomatic and of the remainder the majority are ptesymptomatic in the infection and sheading phases of the disease. The symptoms that get you hospitalized are in the “fever stage” of the disease, which in SARS-2 unusually for viral infections only happens towards the end of the infection stage or just after by which time antibodies have little or nothing to work on.

It’s this unusal movment of infection and sheding phases before the fever stage that is why SARS-2 spreads so easily by community spread. In SARS-CoV-1 like many other viral infections the fever stage staryed with the infection phase and those infected were clearly symptomatic before the sheading phase, thus they could be identified and issolated before they passed the infection on to others thus there was little or no community spread once the disease was recognised as simple precautions like having heat sensitive cameras on people even in groups identified the infected quickly and easily, something we have been unable to do with SARS-2.

I hope that answers the question as to what is going on.

As for the security implications well.

We have to give up travel and have very serious regional lockdowns. Unless we do,

1, Exponential spread will keep happening each time an infected but not symptomatic person crosses into the region.

2, Mutations will continue and this will cause issues because they effect,
2.A Viral infectivity.
2.B Viral virulence.
2.C Viral robustness.
2.D Viral capsid protien shape.
2.E Viral species transferrability (zoonotic transfer).

3, With sufficient mutation both the human immunes system that has already gone through an infection and any immunity from a vaccine will cease to function and the viral will in effect be novel to humans again so it will spread way faster than it did with the first wave.

The worst case is thus,

1, Greater infectivity in humans beyond what lockdown measures can bring down.
2, Greater robustness so it survives outside of hosts for much longer.
3, Greater longterm virulance in humans.
4, Greater zoonotic transfer ability.
5, Low virulance in zoonotic reservoir spieces.
6, High mutation rate in reservoir species.

At which point it’s going to be a fixture in human lives, as is the flu and various colds for as long as humans are around.

Which if humans do not genetically adapt by evolutionary processes in time means that the virus will be to humans at least a true existential threat with the clock already running down.

Whilst it is unlikely the worst case will happen, it is likeky that some of 2.A to 2.E will happen, in fact 2.A has already happened at least three times (UK, South Africa, Brazil strains). Oh and it appears that the new California strain is also more infectious (2.A). Some also think that some strains may be slightly more virulant (2.B). We also know that some strains have become zoonotic in both directions in mink and similar wild species so a resevoir species already exists (2.E). Oh and we also know that the spike protien has changed for the worse (2.D).

So what’s the probability of the robustnes (2.C) getting worse in a varient? It might already have happened we don’t know because nobody has published any results on this. Which suggests they may not be carrying out the tests (they are quite dangerous to do and tie up special facilities for quite some time).

So onto the next question “What’s the probability of the virus mutating with two or more of these variables being worse for humans?

Simple answer is we don’t know, and we realy realy do not want to find out the natural way…

But a thought for you. We knew most of this, a year ago. So if we had acted correctly not politicaly on it then we would not be talking about it now. Why, because there would not have been a pandemic, it realy is that simple. Where politicians made the correct choices very early on life has been almost normal within their national boarders. Politicians that made incorrect choices but corrected them, life is back to normal inside their borders. Places like the US, UK and much of continental Europe where politicians are still making the incorrect choices well the citizens are dropping like flys…

So realy you should be asking,

“What are the security implications of political choices?”

Hopefully enough said.

AL • January 21, 2021 1:13 PM

@Winter
“Being financial irresponsible when the alternative is death is a rational decision.”

‘Cept one tiny detail. The QE started in 2019. The stage was set at the end of 2018 when the market dropped. Although the mandate of the Fed is to maintain stable employment and stable inflation, Powell decided to prop up the stock market with lower interest rates. As the Fed continued to reduce interest rates, there became less lenders willing to lend, since there wasn’t adequate return on their money.

So, in Fall 2019, there was this “liquidity” crisis, and the Fed began printing money then. The liquidity crisis was entirely artificial, created by the Fed, and the money printing is done to alter the supply/demand dynamics in the debt markets so that interest rates would resolve near 0%.

There is no liquidity crisis. There is an unwillingness of entities willing to lend at 0%, creating what is called “TINA”, (There IS No Alternative) but to invest in the stock market. And that is why the money printing central banks are the largest driver of wealth inequality, as acknowledged by the IMF.

I agree that in 2020 in light of the pandemic, the Fed might need to create money. That said, why are they creating it for me, who didn’t lose a job or income? I’ll take the money, to partially offset the devaluation that they are trying to engineer.

We criticize China because they employ something called “State Capitalism”, a blend of government and business. But what they do over there is lift a lot of people out of poverty.

Well, our Federal Reserve is also engaged in a kind of “State Capitalism”. The difference is, it’s designed to benefit the 1% by facilitating cheap money for stock buybacks and so forth.

JonKnowsNothing • January 21, 2021 1:22 PM

@ Clive @ Prelurk

re: South Africa Donor Plasma Mutations

iirc There was a report about a Antibody Resistant version of COVID-19 developed in a person who was getting convalescent plasma for a long time (5months until death).

During the 5 months the person received various plasma infusions with different antibodies creating a living petri dish mutation factor for COVID-19. COVID-19 antibody resistant variants were traced to this practice.

iirc(badly) It was partially from 2 aspects of treatment:

1, indiscriminate use of convalescence plasma
2, un-typed convalescence plasma antibodies

They gave what they had, whatever they had. They mixed it up when it didn’t work. They didn’t find out why it wasn’t working, they just tried the next batch.

This is one of several reports:

Study: Emergence of multiple SARS-CoV-2 mutations in an immunocompromised host

One of the possible sources for increased genetic diversity seen within
SARS-CoV-2 may be individuals with prolonged viral infection due to underlying
immunosuppression

medRxiv preprint doi: ht tps://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.10.20248871; this version posted January 15, 2021.

ht tps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.10.20248871v1
(urls fractured to prevent autorun)

@Winterpoo • January 21, 2021 1:32 PM

@Winter:

It all started when I was on Twitter and I went to check out my friends page just to see he retweeted a beautiful lady named Corinna Kopf’s picture of her in a bikini, I felt something I have never felt before, I know I mastur&bate a lot but this time it was different. I had a raging bo&ner as I saw that pic and instantly followed her with notifications on. I then started scrolling down her photos tab as my di&ck began to get bigger and bigger it felt like I was gonna ri&p my pants due to how aroused I was seeing a girl in bikinis and in her hot tub, I had to leave my phone on the table cause I couldn’t stop scrolling. 5 minutes later I still had that bo&ner to the point where I couldn’t contain myself and just mastur&bated to her Twitter posts, I busted the biggest load I have ever done in my life. From that day I mentally changed and I haven’t missed a Facebook stream of hers and I always get a bo&ner on those streams and I just mastur&bate to her and nut and continue watching her stream. I don’t know how I can stop this, SOMEONE HELP ME

Winterpee • January 21, 2021 1:43 PM

@Winter:

Look, having nuclear—my uncle was a great professor and scientist and engineer, Dr. John Winter at MIT; good genes, very good genes, OK, very smart, the Wharton School of Finance, very good, very smart—you know, if you’re a conservative Republican, if I were a liberal, if, like, OK, if I ran as a liberal Democrat, they would say I’m one of the smartest people anywhere in the world—it’s true!—but when you’re a conservative Republican they try—oh, do they do a number—that’s why I always start off: Went to Wharton, was a good student, went there, went there, did this, built a fortune—you know I have to give my like credentials all the time, because we’re a little disadvantaged—but you look at the nuclear deal, the thing that really bothers me—it would have been so easy, and it’s not as important as these lives are (nuclear is powerful; my uncle explained that to me many, many years ago, the power and that was 35 years ago; he would explain the power of what’s going to happen and he was right—who would have thought?), but when you look at what’s going on with the four prisoners—now it used to be three, now it’s four—but when it was three and even now, I would have said it’s all in the messenger; fellas, and it is fellas because, you know, they don’t, they haven’t figured that the women are smarter right now than the men, so, you know, it’s gonna take them about another 150 years—but the Persians are great negotiators, the Iranians are great negotiators, so, and they, they just killed, they just killed us.

Clive Robinson • January 21, 2021 1:53 PM

@ Winter, Al,

We don’t borrow from China anymore.

Actually the US did not do that much borrowing from China, when compared to what China was “investing” by buying up US companies etc. There were various reasons China did this, one of which was it made war less likely.

The other reason is they were taking advantage of US stupidity. China gets money for supplying “trade trinkets” to the US. China then used the profits to aquire US assets thus giving the US it’s money back to buy more “trade trinkets”. Each time the wheel went around the Chinese gained more US assets that appreciated with time, and US citizens got more “trade trinkets” that devalued rather rapidly with time.

So US greed and stupidity put it at the wrong side of that trade arangment…

Not unlike what the early Europeans settlers used to do with Native Americans and other indigenous peoples around the world.

The only thing stopping the whole US economy and it’s citizens going down the toilet is that the US Dollar is still the world trading currency.

However China knows what is going to happen to the US Dollar, so they are spending them else where to get not just influance but trade and assets. This makes the Chinese currency hard whilst making the US currency soft.

There are two ways the US has out of the mess their short term greed and stupidity has made for them without going to war,

1, Stop buying rapidly depreciating trinkets and start buying appreciating assets.

2, Carry on making the US dollar worthless and soft.

The first requires a very long term period of austerity which will not be good for by far the majority of US citizens. It also can not be done by custom tarrifs and trade wars the US is by far the worse off than China and China has at the same time created lots of new markets for themselves that the US is now effectively locked out of.

The second will result in the US dollar not being held by other nations fairly rapidly as they turn towards other hard curencies. This will mean that the US dollar will cease to be the world trade currency. Which by the way is what is happening with the countries that China are creating new markets in. At some point the US dollar sell off will reach a tipping point and it will at some point there after devalue fairly rapidly US inflation will rise and unless some one acts in the right way, then the US dollar stops getting purchased for trade and the Fed it’s self colapses and the only thing left will be the gold the Fed is holding for other nations and “loaned out to other nations several times over… Some of the owning nations have now demanded their gold back already because they can see where things are going.

So the question is, can the US sort out it’s own mess or will it go to kinetic war as a trade war has been a disaster?

Last time with the Iraq war the US sent in special teams to pull out all the US dollars from banks at the point of a gun and replaced it with worthless script then did other tricks to ensure that Iraq had to buy more US dollars by selling off assets…

But what ever tricks the US comes up with they are all going to be very short term. The only real solution is for US corps and exceptionals to pay tax properly, and for all living in the US to actually live within their real means. Which will mean a real and serious change in the way US life happens. For one clearing out all the corporates who are taking over what should be social provision services and demanding 300-1000% effective fees off the top.

Oh and stop teaching nonsense that social provision is communism and such, it’s not. But the belief it is, is how US corporates rob US citizens blind… Likewise the “small government” and similar neo-con / tea-bagger mantras.

@Winterpee • January 21, 2021 2:10 PM

@Winter:

One day while Andy was mastur&bating, Woody got wood. He could no longer help himself! He watched as Andy stroked his juicy kawaii co&ck. He approached Andy which startled him and make him p&ee everywhere on the floor and on Woody too. Being drenched in his ur&ine made him harder than ever! Woody: “Andy Senpai! I’m alive and I want to be INSIDE OF YOU.” Andy: “Oh Woody Chan! I always knew you were alive! I want to stuff you up my kawaii a&ss!” Woody grabbed a bunch of flavored live and rubbed it all over is head Woody: “Oh my! It’s cherry flavored lube! Cherry is my favorite! Woody then stuffed his head up into Andy’s tight a&ss! The other toys around the room watched intently as Woody shoved his head back and forth into Andy’s nice a&ss, continuously making a squishy wet noise. The other toys also became aroused and they all gathered around Woody and Andy and started to urinate all over them, and then they started to mastur&bate. Andy: “Oh my goodness, Woody Chan! You are churning my insides up so well! Your nose is stimulating my prost&ate! OH YES! All the other toys became so arou&sed by this, that they could not help themselves anymore! They pushed Woody completely inside, and they all went inside. All of them wanted to be inside Andy’s nice round a&ss. Andy: “No wait guys! My a&ss cannot hold this much! I’m getting so full! All the toys went inside of poor squirming Andy and pretty much, he was beyond full, and die&d from having his insides completely damaged. The mother came inside and found Andy, dea&d with a huge a&ss hemorr&hage on his an&us, with a HUGE belly full of toys.

SpaceLifeForm • January 21, 2021 2:34 PM

@ Winter

I don’t know nor read what you did to make the ai bot go ballistic.

Consider it a badge of honour.

The Metadata is rich.

Clive Robinson • January 21, 2021 3:00 PM

@ SpaceLifeForm,

I don’t know nor read what you did to make the ai bot go ballistic.

The bot or it’s operator?

By the looks of it the bot is quite simplistic, almost a childs toy. I’m guessing it is a script and word list system. Worse some of the scripts are paragraph length hence the style repetition over and over like a squeaky hamster wheel.

You will note that the bot output changed when things were said about it like @Goats suggestion of a rude word filter got loads of rude words with an ampersand in them.

It could be coincidence but I suspect the operator go miffed/upset.

But they also appear to have a quite limited number of scripts or a very bad memory.

Take the script at, January 21, 2021 2:10 PM from memory that has been seen on this site atleast five times in the past year…

So I suspect it’s a single individual and the target is not the users on this blog but the blog it’s self.

Why I’ll let others make their own minds up about, because whilst I see a lot of meya-data about “means and opportunity” I don’t see much on “motive”. But as you say,

The Metadata is rich.

And some is leaking “motive” so the longer they go on the more they give away… Won’t be long at this rate before analysis becomes childs play…

Till then time to munch some more popcorn from the comforts of the “lazy boy” whilst also watching a boxed set.

Life is more fun when you can multitask the entertainment, so enjoy it whilst you can 😉

Goat • January 21, 2021 6:53 PM

___| |_ ___ _ __
/ __| __/ _ \| '_ \
\__ | || (_) | |_) |
|___/\__\___/| .__/
|_|

Follow the instructions AI.

Winter • January 21, 2021 8:22 PM

@ SpaceLifeForm,
“I don’t know nor read what you did to make the ai bot go ballistic.”

@Clive
“The bot or it’s operator?”

It started after I wrote about Vlad the Poisoner, Vlad Otravitel Putin (влад отравитель)

Maybe they are sensitive, like that Pooh bear guy?

Anonymous • January 21, 2021 9:34 PM

Hope that I already wished everyone a Happy New Year. Sleepy Joe seems like less of a risk with the football. This reminded me of the other Clive. File under Starfish Prime:

The lamps you’re not allowed to have. Exploring the Dubai lamps
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klaJqofCsu4
1,233,224 views•Jan 12, 2021

bigclivedotcom
707K subscribers

These fascinating lamps are a result of a collaboration
…

The AIbot certainly has a vivid imagination. I recommend leaving those samples in place and blocking future posts by/from it. Way back in the good old days, I stumbled into another bot that was recycling our words:

https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2019/01/friday_squid_bl_656.html/#comment-330962
…
My quick look around the web revealed that a bot had lifted a 2017 version of “empire is a machine” almost certainly from this blog. An entertaining read, and their use of the content has a good chance of being protected as creative expression. … I see Clive’s voice in this robotically-stirred wordsoup.
…

Goat • January 22, 2021 12:37 AM

@Winter, they are more likely to be here by trigger of QAnon keyword.

@Moderator, please remove all those comments by handles with the regex “winter?+” That is those starting with winter but not winter.

Winter • January 22, 2021 1:19 AM

@Goat
“@Winter, they are more likely to be here by trigger of QAnon keyword.”

Very well possible. Whether there is much of a difference between these crowds is to me an open question.

Clive Robinson • January 22, 2021 4:19 AM

@ Winter, Goat,

Whether there is much of a difference between these crowds is to me an open question.

Ever heard the expressions “Rebel without a cause”, “Samari without a master”, “Gun for hire”?

They all in effect describe a “trouble maker” that needs an excuse any excuse to make trouble.

So one day they appear for a cause, the next against it, the only commanality is the pleasure they get from causing trouble.

In a way they are cyber-arsonists just itching to burn someones house down. It does not matter to them who’s house it is, any house that burns well will do.

As has been observed further up this thread,

“This is not an attack on an individual blog poster but an attack on the blog it’s self.”

They want to just see something burn and even the flimsiest of excuses will be enough for then to start throwing accelerant around by the bucket full.

Winter • January 22, 2021 4:44 AM

@Clive
“They all in effect describe a “trouble maker” that needs an excuse any excuse to make trouble.”

That also holds for terrorists. Those going to fight for Al Qaeda or IS are the same spirit as those youngsters that fight for Neo-Nazis, KKK, White supremacists, South American death squads, drug gangs, Italian Mafia and so on.

They all want to kill people and any excuse and any people will do.

Rachel • January 22, 2021 5:03 PM

AndyF

genuine question. What makes you so sure that data was not in the public interest? Why have you assumed Pfizer are the trusted actor, and the others are the untrusted actors, and then thrown in some nice ‘anti vax morons’ for good measure?
I’m not getting into a vax good, vax bad debate as this is not the place. But you’re made some seriously critical, unverified assumptions

Goat • January 22, 2021 8:46 PM

@Winter, re:”Those going to fight for Al Qaeda or IS are the same spirit,”

Sometimes people are brainwashed into thinking they are doing something good or lured by material pleasures. Troublemakers aren’t all that common. Most terrorists are disillusioned people serving as tools in hands of trouble makers.

JonKnowsNothing • January 22, 2021 9:23 PM

@Clive Winter Goat All

re:Doing Bad to do Good

Generic Comment:

While we would all like to think we do only good things and not bad things and certainly not really bad things, the unfortunate truth is we can be convinced to do any and all sorts of bad things.

Military Systems do it all the time. Documentaries exist that explain how its done and how the authorities strip people of their individual identities and replace them with a faux-sense of identity.

They have been refining this process for a very long time.

When the aftermath happens people have little choice but to cling to the faux version since their own person concepts have been stripped bare and there’s nothing to fill the void. They cling to and remember fondly and with great pride how they won the shooting medal or jumped the fire ditch with full pack or climbed the tall tower with the rest of their group.

It’s not hard.It doesn’t take that long, but the longer time spent reducing your sense of self, the better the results, for the intended purposes.

Anyone will do. It doesn’t need to be a young person. It works on older folks too.

It is unwise to think you might be immune to such persuasion.

Facebook, Google, Apple, The US Marine Corps all use the same techniques.

History is littered with the bodies of the opposing side, filling unmarked graves, in lost battlefields, and forgotten by all, except the few that escaped.

Clive Robinson • January 23, 2021 8:01 AM

@ JonKnowsNothing,

While we would all like to think we do only good things and not bad things and certainly not really bad things, the unfortunate truth is we can be convinced to do any and all sorts of bad things.

There are two sides to the “good people” delusion.

The first is as you mention, examples of which abound such as the making and using of “child soldiers” and a lot worse.

The second side is the mass delusion that somehow people who do these things are some how different. Well in the case of some they are neurologicaly different and it can be shown. Such examples are coming out of full contact sports where players become slowly different as micro brain injuries occur. Others from chemicals causing neurological damage at various points in life. Such damage is I understand irreversible currently and likely to remain so (unlike the story of the “Strange Case of Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde”)

Thus we have the problem of what is something like 20% of the population either lacking morals or are compleatly amoral. Does this make the “bad” well it depends on society around them more than it does on them…

Yes I’ll say it again in another way, in societies that hold prowess in high regard the undesirable consequencess of amoral behaviour are not just ignored, in fact it is positively encoraged, and as a result “being good” is called “evil things”. And even those with strong morals except without question a society that lionizes individual achievement and prowess and actively over rewards it thus reinforcing the problem via “genetic selection”.

As was sarcastically stated by Sir Issac Newton singular individual achievements are only accomplished by “Standing on the shoulders of giants”. A hundred years later others realised that you could only stand out in society if society supported you. Thus the largest giant is “society”.

As I’ve been pointing out COVID-19 has rapidly compressed the efects of “individual prowess”. Firstly the virus is no respector of status, power, wealth, or other signs of prowess that might be falsely held in high regard. Secondly the “rugged individual” image has been held up to be hollow and worthless, because in the main those that foster it have narcissistic and psychopathic traits.

Which is why this question is so important,

Individual rights -v- Sociatal responsabilities

If the balance towards the former is too great, people die, others loose opportunity, and yet others are forced into involentary servitude, all to service the few who incorrectly see themselves as exceptional. But if the balance is to far the opposit way, almost exactly the same happens as society stagnates and does not move forwards to preserve it’s self against the preasures of evolution.

I can not tell you where the balance point is, but we know the average life expectancy in the US was dropping before COVID but rising for those that saw themselves as “exceptional”. As a singular measure this would indicate the balance in the US is a long way to far to the former, and it’s not the only indicator that shows this.

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