Schneier on Security

Dirk Praet • February 15, 2016 6:34 PM

@ Nick P

The reason: the router’s certificate used a key that was too weak. Browsers apparently stopped allowing that at all.

I’ve had the same here. Look for a firmware upgrade if it’s a recent router. If not, you may wish to reflash it with DD-WRT or OpenWRT (if supported), which probably provides better and more secure features anyway.

Dirk Praet • February 16, 2016 8:21 PM

@ ianf

the Syrian refugees are by and large well-educated, Christian, or agnostic, cultural Muslims; they make up ~79% of the immigration wave (David Miliband in Davos)

I have no idea where Miliband gets his figures from, but let me give you the official statistics for Belgium: in 2015, we received a grand total of 35,476 asylum requests, out of which 21.3% from Syria, 21.8% from Iraq and 20% from Afghanistan. 50.5% of all applicants were granted refugee status, and an additional 10.2% subsidiary protection. (Source: Belgian Commissariaat-Generaal voor de Vluchtelingen en de Staatlozen)

Local authorities in charge of (mandatory) integration courses here in my home town recently published figures that most newcomers are very lowly schooled, with no less than 17% among them complete analphabets.

Out of 50,532 (new) asylum requests made in Germany in January 2016 (Source: <a href=”http://www.bamf.de/SharedDocs/Anlagen/DE/Downloads/Infothek/Statistik/Asyl/statistik-anlage-teil-4-aktuelle-zahlen-zu-asyl.pdf?__blob=publicationFile” target=_blank”>Bundesamt für Migration und Flüchtlinge), 53.7% are from Syria, 13% from Iraq and 9.7% from Afghanistan. The relative rise in these percentages can probably be explained by Macedonian border police since November systematically refusing entry to anyone on the Balkan route not originating from these three countries. I have no idea to which extent these figures also take into account paperless applicants claiming to be from Syria or those traveling with fake id bought in Turkey.

What I mean to say is that it is a persistent myth that the vast majority of people undertaking the perilous journey from Turkey to Greece are Syrians. However much Europe has a moral (and legal) obligation to provide shelter to refugees fleeing armed conflict and persecution, it is today massively failing its own citizens in securing its outer borders against what has become an out-of-control influx of disenfranchised Asian and African economic migrants.

Once on European soil, and even though they hardly stand any chance of obtaining asylum, they are very hard to repatriate because their countries of origin mostly refuse to take them back. From an economic vantage, many – at least in the short term – are unemployable for lack of linguistic and other required job skills. A questionable migration status, high unemployment rates on top of cultural and religious differences will make it virtually impossible for this group to ever blend in. Massive import of poverty and illiteracy will not support our economies, but will only give rise to populist parties, parallel societies like Molenbeek and add even more to already existing immigrant integration problems in the EU.

One may laud Merkel’s moral high ground or loathe the position of the Visegrad and Baltic countries, but the simple fact of the matter is that the current situation is untenable. Even if by an act of $DEITY there is peace in Syria and Iraq tomorrow, hundreds of thousands from other countries will keep pouring in. For over 6 months now, EU politicians keep shouting that we need to better protect the outer borders, but Greece – for all practical purposes a failed state – is simply incapable of doing so. As is the EU Frontex Agency. The long anticipated registration “hot spots” on the Greek isles off the Turkish coast will not change that.

IMHO, the only sensible approach to get the situation under control is the recent proposal by Dutch poltician Diederik Samson to ship all new arrivals back to Turkey instead of bringing them to the Greek mainland from where – mostly with “help” of human traffickers and undisturbed by Greek authorities – they travel on directly to Macedonia and up the Balkan route to their final destination. The billions of euros recently promissed to Erdogan could then be used to set up refugee camps annex hot spots from where a controlled migration into Europe can take place after proper vetting of people’s identities and asylum claims.

In parallel, it’s about time the EU starts talking to the 21 countries of the Arab League and the 57 of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. So far, only Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon have been bearing the burden of the mostly muslim refugees and immigrants, whereas most other Arab and muslim nations have primarily excelled in hollow words and empty promises of solidarity.

I don’t have high hopes for the upcoming EU summit this week. Neither does Merkel, who has already announced she will try to move forward with a “coalition of the willing”. Not only is she deluding herself, she is widening the rift with the Visegrad countries that absent any other proposals will probably move to close the Macedonian and Bulgarian borders with Greece, effectively pushing Greece out of the Shengen zone. At which point it is just a matter of time before a humanitarian catastrophe ensues along the Greek borders.

As it stands, Merkel is increasingly isolated both in the EU and in Germany itself. Although her open border policy may at some point earn her a Nobel prize, it would seem that she is no longer realising that as a German and European leader, her first responsability is to the EU and Germany, and that instead of uniting she is dividing.

Eastern European and Baltic countries have no history of immigration and there simply is no support whatsoever among their population for receiving and integrating large groups of muslim immigrants. However appaling, that’s just the way it is, and any attempt of forcing the issue in essence is political suicide over there. Redirecting the burden to Western and Northern European countries not only is unfair, it’s also doomed to fail as the once very hospitable Scandinavian countries, Austria and even France have recently made it clear that their limits too have been reached. I’m not even mentioning Spain or Italy that already have their hands full coping with the influx over the Mediterranean route.

Angela Merkel has two choices today: she can stay a morally responsible but unworkable course and become irrelevant in the process, while others like the Hungarian crypto-nazi Orban take over the initiative. Just like Putin did in Syria. And which is not going to help anyone. Or she can finally get a grip and try and unite the EU on a more pragmatic approach that does not entirely depend on open borders, forced quota and the goodwill of Turkish PM Erdogan, whom nobody in the EU trusts anyway.

Dirk Praet • February 23, 2016 9:11 PM

@ ianf

That percentage was of all refugees in last year’s migration waves, of which Syrians constituted 59%; Afghanis 12%; +~8-10% Iraqis.

According to the UNHCR, out of +/- 1 million sea arrivals in 2015, 49% were Syrian, 21% Afghan and 8% Iraqi. But both are about 79%, so I guess your original quote applied to all 3 groups, not just to Syrians.

Assuming the goal is EU For Europeans (i.e. the pre-2004 status quo), what would it take to create and maintain Fortress Europa?

Europe needs immigration, which is why I have always found the entire concept of Fortress Europe to be pretty absurd. The current, uncontrolled influx of disenfranchised refugees and economic migrants alike is however something entirely different.

Can you imagine Frontex gunships & gunboats patrolling the Aegean, and key routes of the Medi, firing sharp at, and/or towing back to Africa, all the unauthorized boats filled with people?

No, I can’t. Conversely, someone else could ask the equally legitimate question: “Can you imagine hundreds of thousands, if not millions, crossing the Mediterranean and the Aegean, landing on our shores in a completely uncontrolled way?” I believe neither one of these outcomes is desirable.

As expected, last week’s EU summit again was a dud. Merkel stayed her course of open borders, repeating her three bullet points solution:

1. Cooperation with Turkey to decrease the number of refugees crossing over to Greece
2. Better secure the EU outer borders
3. Tackle the underlying causes (Syria, Iraq wars)

As to 2 and 3, Greece and Frontex have shown themselves to be utterly unable to secure the Greek coastline, and from both a political and military vantage the EU has little to no control over what’s happening either in Syria or Iraq. Frontex and even the recently dispatched NATO ships are in essence providing a humanitarian service to pick up people out of the sea and take them to the EU mainland.

So it all boils down to Turkey’s willingness to not only significantly decrease the number of people crossing the Aegean but to also take back those not entitled to asylum in Europa. In exchange, the EU will pay Turkey billions of euros, loosen visa requirements for Turkish nationals, shut up about human rights violations, turn a blind eye to their campaign against the Kurds and arrange for legal immigration of refugees into Europe. Details of which should be agreed upon on a forthcoming summit with Turkey.

However much I would like to believe the contrary, I’m afraid this strategy is fundamentally flawed. First of all, and in having to rely on a non-EU country, it shows the catastrophical failure of a joint EU refugee approach and the utter inability to secure the outer borders. Moreover, I very much doubt that Erdogan is ever going to either stop or take back significant numbers of asylum seekers as Turkey is being overrun itself. Not only does it sound counter-intuitive, Turkey has never respected the 2002 treaty with Greece on the issue either, and has already backed down on recent commitments that NATO ships can bring refugees saved at sea back to Turkey. From what we have seen so far, Erdogan is only using the refugee crisis as leverage to extort the EU in as many ways as possible.

Last but not least, even a successful collaboration with Turkey does not solve the situation in Libya, where hundreds of thousands are awaiting spring to cross the Mediterranean. Where after hundreds if not thousands of additional drownings they’ll get stuck in Italy, as neither France or Austria will let them in or through.

Whether you support Angela Merkel or not, the simple fact of the matter is that her stubborn attitude is a road to ruin for the EU, the refugees and herself. Unless there is a significant decrease in numbers of refugees in March, Visegrad states will close the borders with Greece whereas the Mediterranean route will be cut off in the north of Italy (Austria, France). Which means the definitive end of Schengen and a huge economic loss, further EU division and a humanitarian crisis in Greece, Italy and at sea. Since Europe is unable to cope with the situation, a more comprehensive approach is required.

1. Immediate initiation of talks between EU top diplomats and the UN, the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation instead of Angela Merkel’s solo initiatives with Turkey.
2. Establishment of refugee registration hot spots not only on the Greek isles off the Turkish coast, but also in Cyprus, Malta, Libya and Turkey, preferably under UN mandate. From there, legitimate refugees can be brought to the European mainland AND other countries in a controlled manner.

However much Afghans may be entitled to refugee status, I cannot shake the feeling that there are sufficient other safe countries much closer to home for them, and that their ultimate motivation for coming to Europe in essence is purely economical. If my interpretation of the Geneva Refugee Convention is correct, there is no such thing as an absolute right for refugees to pick their country of destination. The Convention only asks of its signatories to accommodate such requests “as much as possible”, which in the current crisis IMHO is no longer the case.

1. Migrants saved or intercepted at sea must be returned to their embarkation point or the nearest official hot spot with sufficient accommodation facilities, as per the Samson proposal. Same for anyone on any refugee route not in possession of valid registration papers or refusing to apply for asylum in the EU country he or she is currently held up. This is the only way to avoid situations like the Calais jungle.

2. Any country refusing to take in a fair contingent of refugees must be hit with economic sanctions, whether they are European, Arab or otherwise involved in the current Syrian and Iraqi civil wars.

This goes especially for Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States who are still dodging their obligations under international law and unreasonably burdening Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and the EU with the results of a crisis they at least partially share the blame for in aiding and abetting factions actively involved in the Syrian civil war.

1. Migrants not qualifying for refugee status, i.e. illegal immigrants, must be sent back to their country of origin without further ado. Same goes for criminal elements. Those countries obstinately refusing to take them back should equally face severe economic sanctions and other repercussions. In Germany alone, there’s already about 200k rejected asylum applicants. Non-action against rejected and criminal immigrants is one of the main reasons for erosion of popular support of positive refugee management.

2. A ruthless crackdown – including extended jail time and seizure of assets – on human traffickers that are making billions out of this crisis. About 90% of all immigrants are making use of their “services”.

3. An immediate stop to Germany’s current open border policy – at least until the outer EU borders have been adequately secured – bringing the country back in line with the other 27 member states of the EU, even the most welcoming of which today want hard limits and maximum daily contingents to adequately cope with both influx and integration.